印度尼西亚能成为下一个中国吗？ [美国媒体]

Will-Indonesia-be-the-next-China

印度尼西亚能成为下一个中国吗？



Abdul Rozak  
It could be economically (although the PwC forecastsuggested that Indonesia's GDP will still be one sixth of China's GDP by 2050),but it might be in a different way from Chinese way of development. Theundemocratic nature of China's politics allows the government to focus on longterm planning for development with little to no oppostion, this also holds truein democratic Singapore where People's Action Party always won every electioneven before Singapore’s independencein 1965. Japan or South Korea might be a closer example to Indonesian system.Although their cabinet changes almost every year together with rapid rise andfall of prime ministers, but they hold onto their high moral values, thereforeit is not strange when a minister or important officials stepped down due tosmall mistakes. This makes the government consistent to their master plan.Indonesia has National Development Planning System as long term guidelines fornational economic development, but the pace would depend on how the runninggovernment works on it, hence the Indonesia's economic development is affectedheavily by political ploys inside the government, whether it is honest,corrupted, just, unjust, or else. If Indonesia's development seems good underthe current regime, there is no guarantee that it will sustain the pace afterthe current government stepped down, either national, provicial, or lower levelgovernment. Therefore I think that a continuous improvement in human resourcequality is the first step solution if Indonesia wants to be the next China,economically. This is because the highly qualified human resource will allow governmentpositions to be filled with skilled and more responsible statemen/women andmore highly paid jobs and industries opened, therefore a better economic levelis achieved.

它可能是经济上的(尽管普华永道(PwC)预测，到2050年，印尼的GDP仍将是中国GDP的六分之一)，但它可能与中国的发展方式不同。中国政治的非民主性质使政府能够专注于长期的发展规划，几乎没有任何反对意见，这一点在民主的新加坡也同样适用。在新加坡，人民行动党(People’s Action Party)甚至在1965年新加坡独立之前就赢得了每次选举。日本或韩国可能是印尼系统的一个更近的例子。虽然他们的内阁几乎每年都在变动，总理的起起落落也在变化，但他们坚守着自己的崇高道德价值观，因此当部长或重要官员因小错下台时，这并不奇怪。这使得政府与他们的总体计划保持一致。印尼有国家发展规划体系作为国家经济发展的长期指导方针，但其发展速度将取决于政府的运作方式，因此印尼的经济发展受到政府内部政治策略的严重影响，无论是诚实、腐败、公正、不公还是其他。如果在当前政权下，印尼的发展看起来不错，那么在现任政府下台后，无论是国家政府、政府官员还是下级政府，都无法保证印尼的发展能够保持下去。因此我认为，如果印尼想在经济上成为下一个中国，那么不断提高人力资源质量是第一步。这是因为，高质量的人力资源将使政府职位充满技能和更负责任的官员/妇女，并开设更多高薪的工作和行业，从而实现更好的经济水平。

Kevin Anderson
No. Indonesia will continue to be Indonesia.

不可能。印尼永远是印尼。

Dian Ardiansyah
OK. As an Indonesian i feel like i need to step in and beobjective because it seems there’sso much negativity surrounding this question.
Indonesia HAS the potential to be the next China, the mainquestion now WILL the country use it to its advantage.
For those who hate Indonesia for whatever reason i suggestyou all need to just fly away somewhere because it seems you will hate thiscountry NO MATTER WHAT.
OK lets go back to the question shall we. This answer isbased on my knowledge of this country. Indonesia is blessed with everything itneeds to be successful. From location, land, large population, culture,history, creativity and especially natural resource. Indonesia has everything.The main difference between China and Indonesia is the way its socio-politicalsystem works. In China its political system from the very beginning has alwaysbeen centralized. That’s just how theChinese system works. From the imperial time to modern time, China has alwaysbeen centralized.
Indonesia is different. Its political system has always beenin flux. In a nut shell China has always been centralized while Indonesia worksbest when it is decentralized. Why ?
Look at China. Its a continental country. Its not and neverwas a maritime country. Its also quite homogeneous. Culture and religion wiseits also very distinct and nearly everything develops from within.
Now look at Indonesia.
Its the worlds largest archipelago. It will always be amaritime country. In fact in the past it was a maritime power that defeated themighty China. From culture and religion, Indonesia has always absorb thingsfrom other parts of the world and assimilate them with its own ingenuity.
From ethnicall perspective, China pale in comparison toIndonesia. The archipelago is a tapestry of many ethnic groups that will makeeven the Chinese scratch their head on how to govern.
You can clearly see the main differences between the two.One is a centralized homogeneous continental country that will always be likethat and for China that’stheir magic formula. China’smagic formula has always been there staring at them in the face. WhileIndonesia hasn’t found itsmagic formula yet.
People said:
Why don’tIndonesia copy China ? Well can the Chinese system of creating Heaven on Earthwith every means possible sits well with religious and heterogeneousIndonesians?
What if i ask a Chinese :
Would you like to adopt an Indonesian style of Democracy?
I would also like to ask a Chinese:
If you are so proud of your system why does it creates somuch injustices and problems in your society?
To put it simply, the path to success is different fromperson to person and from country to country. Maybe China has finally found itsformula for success, well good for them. But as an Indonesian i can tell youwith certainty we haven’tfound that reliable formula to success yet.
The formula to become a successful, Industrial and a wealthycountry that consists of 17.000 islands with hundreds of ethnic groups that aredeeply religious and deeply oxymoronic at the same time has never been inventedbefore.
Until someone or something figure out that magic formula,Indonesia will continue to be a few steps behind China. Personally i’m not embarrassed by it. Why? becausewe as a nation are on the path of creating something brand new, something thatthe world has never seen before :)

作为一名印尼人，我觉得我应该客观地对待这个问题，因为这个问题似乎有太多的负面影响。印尼有可能成为下一个中国，现在的主要问题是，该国是否会利用它的优势。
对于那些憎恨印尼的人，我建议你们都要飞到别处去，因为无论如何，你们似乎都会憎恨这个国家。
好，我们回到问题上来。这个答案是基于我对这个国家的了解。印尼拥有成功所需要的一切。从地理位置，土地，人口，文化，历史，创造力，特别是自然资源。印尼拥有一切。中国和印尼的主要区别在于其社会政治体系的运作方式。在中国，政治制度从一开始就是集中的。这就是中国体制的运作方式。从帝国时代到现代，中国一直是中央集权的。
印尼是不同的。它的政治体系一直在变化。在一个坚果壳中，中国一直是中央集权的，而印尼在去中心化时工作得最好。为什么?

看看中国。它的一个大陆的国家。它不是，也从来不是一个海洋国家。它也很均匀。文化和宗教的智慧也很独特，几乎所有的东西都是从内部发展起来的。
现在看看印度尼西亚。它是世界上最大的群岛。它将永远是一个海洋国家。事实上，在过去，是海上强国打败了强大的中国。从文化和宗教的角度来看，印尼一直在吸收世界其他地方的东西，并以自己的聪明才智将它们同化。
从少数民族的角度来看，中国与印尼相比显得苍白。这个群岛是许多少数民族的织锦，甚至连中国人也会为如何治理而挠头。

你可以清楚地看到两者之间的主要区别。一个是一个集中的同质大陆国家，将永远是这样，对中国来说，这就是他们的神奇公式。中国的神奇配方一直都在那儿盯着他们的脸。而印尼还没有找到它的神奇配方。
人说:
为什么印尼不效仿中国?那么，中国用一切可能的方式在地球上创造天堂的体系，能与印尼的宗教和异族人和谐相处吗?
如果我问中国人:
你愿意采用印度尼西亚式的民主吗?
我还想问一个中国人:

如果你对你的制度如此自豪，为什么它会在你的社会中产生如此多的不公正和问题?
简单地说，通往成功的道路因人而异，因国家而异。也许中国终于找到了成功的秘诀，这对他们很有好处。但作为一名印尼人，我可以肯定地告诉你，我们还没有找到成功的可靠公式。这是一个成功的、工业的、富裕的国家，它由17000个岛屿组成，有数百个民族，这些岛屿具有深厚的宗教色彩，同时又充满了矛盾。
在某个人或某个人想出这个神奇的公式之前，印尼将继续落后中国几步。我个人对此并不感到尴尬。为什么?因为作为一个国家，我们正在创造一种全新的东西，一种世界上前所未见的东西。

Anonymous
Indonesians are drunk on religion and politics. Chinese aresecular and don't care about politics. They just want to improve their lives.
Indonesians want to go heaven. Chinese want to create heavenon earth.
Indonesians admire corrupt politicians. Chinese kill them.
Indonesians complain when the government builds infrastructure.Chinese don't dare to complain and as a result, China’s infrastructure is light years ahead of Indonesia’s.
Indonesian political parties fought each other to gain morepower and the privilege to plunder the country. Chinese political party foughtinternally and the winners afterwards can concentrate on building the country.Indonesian politicians fight every five years. New winner will reverse policiesof the loser. Development marching on place.

印尼人醉心于宗教和政治。中国人是世俗的，不关心政治。他们只是想改善自己的生活。
印尼人想去天堂。中国人想在地球上创造天堂。
印尼人钦佩腐败的政客。中国杀死他们。
印尼人抱怨政府建设基础设施。中国人不敢抱怨，因此，中国的基础设施比印尼早几年。
印尼各政党为了获得更多的权力和掠夺国家的特权而互相争斗。中国的政党在内部斗争，胜利者可以集中精力建设国家。印尼的政客每五年就打一次仗。新的赢家将扭转输家的政策。发展前进的地方。

Semar Manganov
Are you kidding Me ? LOL
Why next China ? Not Next Russia or Singapore?
Indonesia won’tbe the next China. Indonesia had banned communist since 1965.
In next 2 decades, I can bet Indonesian Industry n economywont be better than now. Due to politics n system of Government will slow downthe growth. We can learn from India. Unless only the hard lines governance canchange it.
The majority of Indonesia now is sacrify the real life forfuture after life. How can you live with that ?
China is not comparable with Indonesia its better take Indiaas benchmark.
China economy is $ 11 Trillions while India is $2.3Trillions some thing and Indonesia $ 930 billion only. If China no growth,Indonesia has to catch up growth 1100%. Thats nonsense. Forget about it
Its better Indonesia be realistic to do what they have nfocus on self sufficient economy.

你在开玩笑吧?哈哈为什么是下一个中国?不是下一个俄罗斯或新加坡?
印尼不会是下一个中国。印尼自1965年起就禁止共产主义。
在接下来的20年里，我敢打赌印尼的经济不会比现在好。由于政治因素，政府体制会减缓经济增长。我们可以向印度学习。除非只有硬线治理才能改变它。
现在印尼的大多数人都在牺牲现实生活，为了以后的生活。你怎么能忍受?
中国比不上印尼，最好以印度为基准。
中国经济是11万亿美元，印度是23万亿美元，印尼只有9300亿美元。如果中国不增长，印尼必须赶上1100%的增长。这是无稽之谈。别想了。
印尼最好现实一点，把重点放在自给经济上。

Yu Che
It’s ok to havereligions.
But, in this current troubled world, it’s relly much better to bereligion-free, in which people can focus on the real issues, instead ofaccusing others for blasphemy. Religious fanaticism isn’t a problem shared by all believers. But it is indeed aserious problem.
For any developing country that wants to catch up with Chinaand many countries that are now developed such as Singapore and South Korea,they have to learn to concentrate their energy on the real deal. Wealthy andwell-established countries can afford playing dangerous social issues,developing countries cannot. At the end of the day, there are only so fewopportunites to catach.
There are many lessons here in Asia that Indonesia canlearn. I am just not sure whether they want to learn them or not.

有宗教信仰是可以的。
但是，在当今这个动荡不安的世界里，远离宗教反而更好，人们可以关注真正的问题，而不是指责别人亵渎神明。宗教狂热并不是所有信徒都有的问题。但这确实是一个严重的问题。
对于任何想要赶上中国的发展中国家，以及许多现在已经发展起来的国家，如新加坡和韩国，他们必须学会把精力集中在真正的交易上。发达国家和发达国家能够承担得起危险的社会问题，而发展中国家不能。到头来，能抓住机会的人寥寥无几。
在亚洲，印尼可以学到很多经验。我只是不确定他们是否想学习。

Ishwor
Indonesia will not become the next china because:
1.Hardcore muslim are in rise in indonesia. They are nottolerant to others who are not muslims. like the prosecution of Christianchinese mayor AHOK. They want to make indonesia next Saudi Arab not next China.
2.Indonesia simply cannot compete with countries likevietnam and bangladesh to attract factories.
3.Connectivity and transportation is in very poor state inindonesia. other infrastructure like electricity, land, water are also in poorstate.

印尼不会成为下一个中国，因为:
1、在印尼，铁杆穆斯林正在崛起。他们不能容忍非穆斯林的人。就像中国基督教市长阿霍被起诉一样。他们想让印尼成为下一个沙特阿拉伯国家，而不是下一个中国。
2、印尼根本无法与越南和孟加拉国等国竞争，以吸引工厂建设。
3、在印尼，连通性和交通状况都很糟糕。其他基础设施如电力、土地和水也处于贫困状态。

Nengshou
This is quite difficult, because Indonesia does not have somuch land and population, and of course culture is also very important. Ialways think that the United States is strong because many Jews in the SecondWorld War fled to the United States, and the Jews are very good at scientificresearch and business, thus stimulating the entire United States and theeconomy. If you investigate for yourself, the founders of the top companies inthe United States are mostly Jewish. Therefore, the culture of a country isvery important. Of course, if compared to countries with similar masses, suchas Japan. Indonesia is closer in terms of population, resources and land area.Perhaps Japan should be your goal.
Nengshou

这很困难，因为印尼没有那么多的土地和人口，当然文化也很重要。我一直认为美国是强大的，因为很多二战中的犹太人逃到了美国，而犹太人非常擅长科研和商业，从而刺激了整个美国和经济。如果你自己调查一下，美国顶尖公司的创始人大多是犹太人。因此，一个国家的文化是非常重要的。当然，如果与日本等拥有相似人口的国家相比的话。印度尼西亚的人口、资源和土地面积更近。也许日本应该是你的目标。

Yau Chiam
Indonesia is a nation rich in resources. They will becomegreat if they prevent the rise of religion, reign in corruption, promotemeritocracy not promotion by political or religious connections.
A nation will not rise if religion is promoted above scienceand education.

印尼是一个资源丰富的国家。如果他们阻止宗教的兴起，控制腐败，促进精英统治，而不是通过政治或宗教联系来促进，他们将变得伟大。
如果宗教高于科学和教育，一个国家就不会崛起。

Koperasi  
Sure. Yess. Indonesia will be the next China. We are giantdemocratic country that gives opportunity for every nations to compete and havestrong relationship with USA, Japan and Europe Nations. Religion will not prohibitus to become modern country since we are not Islamic based law country. We arePancasila country that will support diversity in one nation.

当然是的。印尼将是下一个中国。我们是一个巨大的民主国家，每个国家都有机会参与竞争，并与美国、日本和欧洲国家建立了牢固的关系。宗教不会禁止我们成为现代国家，因为我们不是以伊斯兰为基础的法律国家。我们是潘卡西拉国家，将支持一个国家的多样性。

B Fawcett
I think not. Indonesia needs to open up to the world more,and copy secular traits of the Chinese and developed countries. It couldhowever be a location for assembly of products, as China mainly was 10–15 years ago. Cheap labour and whatnot.China is so much more than that today already.

我不这么认为。印尼需要更多地向世界开放，并复制中国和发达国家的世俗特征。然而，它可能是一个组装产品的地方，因为中国主要是10-15年前。廉价劳动力和诸如此类的东西。中国现在已经比现在多得多了。

C. Michel  
No, it will become the next Pakistan

不，它会变成下一个巴基斯坦。

Ara Gusti
By China you mean industrially and technologically developedwhile maintaining a strong sense of Nationalistic and Cultural identity withouta sense of guilt of the past, then yes!
Ara Gusti

如果你所指的中国是指工业和技术发达的国家，同时又保持着强烈的民族和文化认同感，而没有过去的罪恶感，那么是的！