美国：中国沉没了 [美国媒体]

Business Insider 
By Linette Lopez 



There haven't been many days in 2016, but every single one of them has been ugly for China's economy.

2016年还没过几天，但是每一天对于中国经济来说都是难看的一天。

It should surprise no one, then, that Wall Street's most lauded China analyst, Charlene Chu of Autonomous Research, has a dark outlook for the country's economy this year, especially its corporate sector.

这毫不令人吃惊，华尔街最负盛名的中国专家，自主研究所的Charlene Chu对于中国今年的经济展望持悲观态度，尤其是其企业部门这一块儿。

That is because a huge portion of it is drowning.

这是因为这一部门的大部分正在没落。

As the country transitions from an investment-based economy to one driven by consumer consumption, older growth drivers known as the secondary industry — think the property market and manufacturing — are becoming less profitable. 

随着中国从投资拉动型经济向消费型经济转型，旧的增长动力，即第二产业——建筑业和制造业——越来越不赚钱了。

What we are witnessing is the slow death of Old China, and it isn't pretty.

我们所看到的，是一个旧的中国的缓慢死亡，而且一点也不安详。

"We expect China’s GDP growth to continue to slow in 2016 driven by further deterioration of secondary industry, which comprises 43% of economic output and whose growth plummeted to a record low of 1.2% yoy in 3Q15," Chu wrote in the note.

“我们预计，由于受累于第二产业的进一步恶化，中国的GDP增速在2016年会继续放缓。第二产业占了总经济产出的43%，在2015年三季度这一产业的增速下降到史无前例的1.2%。”Chu 在报告中说。

China's secondary industry is drowning in debt. Old China's companies are not growing fast enough to keep up with interest payments on their debt.

中国的第二产业正淹死在债务重。中国的企业收入的增长赶不上债务利息的增长。



What China bulls will tell you is that other parts of the economy are coming in to save the day. Chu writes that that is simply not the case.

中国鼓吹者会告诉你，其他的产业的增长可以挽救整个经济。Chu则认为完全不是这回事儿。

"Consumption and services remain bright spots. However, we doubt these areas can accelerate enough to offset a further slowdown – and likely contraction – of secondary industry in 2016, particularly as it increasingly weighs on household income growth, the principal driver of consumption and services expansion," she wrote.

“消费和服务业仍然是亮点。但是，我们怀疑这些产业的增长是否够快来抵消经济进一步的放缓——以及在2016年很可能发生的第二产业的收缩，特别是消费和服务业的增长动力严重依赖家庭收入的增长。”

Agriculture, consumption and the service sectors of the economy are estimated to have grown 10.7% in 2015. Not bad during a slowing economy.

中国的农业、消费和服务业增速预计为10.7%。在经济放缓的情况下并不坏。

However, for China to hit its 2016 GDP target of 6.5% while Old China is dying, those sectors will have to grow significantly faster. If Old China contracts 5%, the rest of the economy will have to grow 14.3% by Chu's estimation. If it contracts by 10%, the rest of the economy will have to grow by 17.7%.

可是，对于中国来说，要实现2016年GDP增长6.5%的目标，在旧产业正在死掉的情况下，农业、消费和服务必须增长的飞快。根据Chu的估计，如果旧产业收缩了5%，其他产业必须达到增速14.3%。如果旧产业收缩10%，其他产业要增长17.7%。

Plus, as Old China crashes, people are going to be out of work. That's not going to help consumption in other sectors of the economy.

此外，随着中国的旧产业的倒塌，会有很多人失业。这对消费产业毫无帮助。

Get ready for an interesting year.

准备好经历这有趣的一年吧。


Hu Jin Tao 49 minutes ago 
As an American with considerable experience in China I have a few points to make-

作为一个有丰富中国经验的美国人，我谈几点：

1. Do not underestimate the Chines people's capacity to suffer. Suffering is as natural to Chinese as obesity is to Americans. Their ability to endure, tolerate, and persevere through hardship is something to admire. While many of the spoiled, rich youngsters have never had to experience true suffering, they are a distinct minority.

1. 不要低估中国人民吃苦的能力。中国人吃苦跟美国人发胖一样自然。在困难的日子里，他们忍受、容忍和坚持的能力令人钦佩。很多被宠坏的富二代没吃过真正的苦，这些人是少数。

2. The average Chinese family has pretty deep pockets. Middle class wages and living standards are ridiculously low by American standards. But the former is only part of the explanation for the latter. Another part of the equation is the Chinese propensity to save money. It's not just a habit, it's a cultural imperative. Most Chinese, especially those over 40, don't see the need for many things considered essentials to modern life. While the total amount a family saves may not be great, it represents a huge multiplication of annual income.

2. 平均来说中国家庭很有钱。中产的工资和生活标准比美国低多了。不过这只是原因之一。另一个原因是中国人倾向于存钱。这不只是一个习惯，这是一种文化。大多数中国人，特别是40岁以上的人，不觉得有必要买很多东西。也许一个家庭的储蓄算不了什么，但整体数额很大。

3. Family ties and family structure are considerably different and much stronger than in western countries. Families, extended families spanning two, three, even four generations pool resources in ways unimaginable in the USA. (This is one way corruption and graft are hidden from government: Boss Wang doesn't take a bribe, he just gives out a government contract to his good friend that hires Wang's brother who in turn pays his new boss's relatives from bribes he has extracted from any one he can squeeze.) When tough times hit (and China has seen tough times repeatedly in its history), the family pulls together. Those more financially successful share with the entire family to ensure everyone's well-being and survival. Older members will commit suicide to protect the assets of younger family members. 

3. 家庭关系和结构与西方有很大差异，比西方国家紧密。家里两代、三、四代的人集中资源办事的方式在美国是难以想象的。（这也是一种贪污受贿的方式：王首长没有受贿，他只是把一项政府的合同给了他的好朋友，这个好朋友又聘请了王的兄弟，这个人又把贪来的钱再送给新老板的亲戚。）日子不好过了（中国的历史上发生过很多次），家庭成员团结起来，有钱的照顾没钱的。老人自杀来减轻年轻成员的负担。

4. Although I can't specifically address the suggestion that Chinese businesses are in hock over their heads, I can state that many things a Chinese family owns it really owns, even their dwelling. Mortgages have become more popular recently, but it wasn't long ago that FAMILIES paid cash for everything. A major purchase: car, house, TV, appliances, etc. is quite often bought without a credit card, bank financing, or borrowed money of any kind. The Chinese are savers; if they can't pay cash, they do without.

4. 尽管我对中国企业债台高筑的说法没什么可谈的，我可以说中国的家庭欠债不多。房产抵押贷款最近刚流行起来，但是不久之前，中国人买什么都付现金。买大件：车、房、电视、家电等等，经常是不用信用卡、银行贷款或者任何形式的借款。中国人如果现金买不起，他们就不买。

5. I've been reading about China's financial demise since the first time I went there in 2008. There has been upheaval, uncertainty, setback, etc., but things just keep chugging along. The mood today seems to be that 2015 was a tough year but things are turning around for a successful 2016. This is not just New Year's good wishes but a sincere sentiment by most Chinese I meet.

5. 我自从2008年去中国之后，一直读到中国的金融危机的文章。金融剧变、不确定性、倒退等等，但是中国的金融就这么维持下去了。现在的感觉是2015年很难，2016年会有转机。这不只是新年美好的愿望，我遇到的大多数中国人都真的这么想。

As I read the doom and gloom predictions for China's impending failure, I can't help but feel that western writers are only seeing what their western eyes will allow them to see. Statistics have a whole new meaning when viewed through a new paradigm. I'm not saying the writers are dishonest or incompetent. I don't know if their predictions will come true. But there are times when I read articles in the western press and I can conclude the writer knows nothing about how things work in China. 

我看到关于预测中国即将溃败的文章的时候，我不禁感到西方的作者只看到他们西方人的眼睛能看到的东西。视角不同，统计数据也会显示出不同的含义。我不是说这些作者不诚实或者没能力。我只是不清楚他们的预测是否会成真。但是，有时候我在西方媒体看到这些文章的时候，我感觉的到，作者对于中国人的做事方式一无所知。

Weiyong 1 hour ago
It is blatantly obvious what has to be done, but the government of China has dallied for 14 months when swift action should have seen these adjustments at the beginning of 2015:

有些事早该做了，但是中国政府拖了14个月。这些措施在2015年初就该采取了：

1) Lower interest rates by half. It is still above 4.5% when it should be nearer 2.5%. America lowered its prime rate to 0% for 8 long years after the meltdown. That will lower the cost of doing business drastically 

1) 降息50%。现在还在4.5%以上，本来应该在2.5%。金融危机后，美国在8年时间里维持0利率。这能极大地降低企业的成本

2) Let the RMB slide to 7 yuan to the dollar, ASAP. That will restore exports.

2) 尽快让人民币兑美元贬值到1比7，恢复出口。

3) Allow stock markets to adjust to 2800 pts, where it was before the great surge in 2014 (when the real economy was contracting all this time the stick market should not have doubled anyway). 

3) 让股市调整到2800点，在2014年大牛市启动之前的点位（实体经济一直在收缩，股市说什么都不应该翻倍）。

4) Reduce VAT and income tax. Especially for those sectors the govt say they want to support. This cuts back on government revenue but it keeps the economy competitive. UK cut its VAT to 15% down from 17.5% after the economic meltdown of 2008.

4) 降低增值税和所得税。特别是对于政府声明要支持的行业。减税会减少政府收入，但是能够保持经济竞争力。英国在2008年经济危机之后把增值税从17.5%下调到了15%。

5) Adjust labor-laws to reduce compensation to employee sacked by companies. Currently, companies pay 2 months per year the employee works fir them. If a guy works for an employer for 6 years, he gets 1 year's worth of compensation if he were let go of. Companies cannot re-adjust if they cannot rid of excess staff. 

5) 修改劳动法，削减企业裁员时对员工的补偿。目前，员工每工作一年，解雇福利是2个月工资。如果一个人工作6年，那他下岗那天能拿到1年的工资。企业如果裁不起员，就不能转型。

hx 43 minutes ago 
Re. "restore exports"

关于恢复出口

The trouble is even the West can't import more. Our money buys less and less as days passed. Our middle class is shrinking. Our poor is growing. Our rich does not buy made-in-China. Every country in the world wants to up exports to earn more money. Third world can only buy cheap junks from China and even at that third world has more limited buying power than the West's. 

问题是，西方没法进口更多。 我们的钱能买的越来越少。中产阶级在减少，穷人增加。富人不买中国制造的东西。世界上每个国家都想增加出口来挣钱。第三世界只能买中国的廉价垃圾产品，而第三世界的购买力还不如西方国家。

All will go belly up and starts all over again, if not through war, will be through natural dictation of business/economics/human reality. 

所有人都会破产，重头再来，如果不是通过战争，就是通过商业/经济/人性的法则。

Human 4 hours ago 
The false economy is fading. Can't be stated any easier. Imports / Exports have both come down and recession is inevitable. Wages for the average worker has gone up and the world will shift there focuses to cheaper labor in southern asia. The country will earn less money meaning that people will spend less and will start losing jobs as well. The future seems bleak at best for China right now and the investors better run out before it's too late. 

虚假经济玩完了。不能说的更简单了。进出口都下降，衰退不可避免。人均工资上升，大企业转向劳动力更便宜的东南亚。中国的钱越来越少，民众消费越来越少，开始失业。目前看中国的前景黯淡，投资者赶紧跑

hx 39 minutes ago 
Investors only run when they've found a new profiteering ground. India maybe next, as well as little VN, Cambodia, Laos,... but it'll take long for India to be profitable (it's been stagnant since UK gave it independence) and the others are too small, even in combination. 

投资者只有在找到新的赚钱点才会跑。印度可能是下一个，还有越南、柬埔寨、老挝。。。但是印度要很久之后才赚钱（自从英国让印度独立之后，印度经济一直停滞），其他国家太小，加起来没中国大