在一场和俄罗斯的战争中，北约有没有赢的机会？ [美国媒体]

Does NATO stand a chance in a war against Russia?

在一场和俄罗斯的战争中，北约有没有赢的机会？



1、Tamás Polgár，2016
That depends what kind of war. Russia hasquite different military doctrines than the USA and NATO in general.
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这要取决于哪种战争。总体上，俄罗斯的军事思想和美国、北约相当不同。

If Russia invaded Europe, according to oldCold War plans, it’d be a defeat for them. They simply lack the necessaryforce. They are not prepared for this kind of force projection, their army is notdesigned to face NATO forces as an attacking force. If a Russian invasion everoccured, it’d be in the Baltic states or somewhere else in the buffer zone. Inany case, it’ll be very limited and the Russians will try to achieve a statusquo before major NATO forces drive them out or their little adventure escalatesinto a worldwide shitstorm.

如果俄罗斯按照冷战中的老计划侵略欧洲，那对他们来说将会是一场失败。他们纯是缺乏必要的部队。他们没有为这种兵力投送做好准备，他们的军队不是设计来作为进攻性军队直面北约部队的。要是一场俄国入侵真的发生了，那也会发生在波罗的海国家或是缓冲区内的其他什么地方。不管怎样，（规模）都会非常有限，而且俄国人会在北约主力部队把他们赶出去之前设法保持现状，不然他们的小小冒险就会升级成为一场席卷全球的大风暴。

But if NATO invaded Russia, that’ s a wholedifferent story. In this case, NATO would very well lose. The Russians are wellprepared to defend their Motherland, and they have strong traditions doing so.Not to mention that NATO also lacks the necessary ground potential. Most likelythey’d grind to a standstill somewhere around the Dnepr, and then it’s eithernukes or GTFO.

但如果北约入侵俄罗斯，情况就会完全不同了。在这种情况下，北约肯定会输。俄国人做好了充分的准备来保卫他们的祖国母亲，而且他们有这么干的强大传统。更不用说北约也缺少必要的地面作战潜力。最有可能出现的情况是，他们会在第聂伯河附近陷于停滞，然后要么被核爆要么自己滚出去。

To summarize, a NATO-Russian war would notlead anywhere, in any case. There is no point trying to win small territoriesfrom each other while risking to lose everything. (And I am not talking onlyabout a potential nuclear scenario: there are serious economic ties tanglingthe two factions to each other, and straining them would be almost as bad asbombing each others’ cities.) As neither side could invade the other’sterritory and occupy enough land to cripple the opponent into submission, it’dbe just a very nasty tug of war.

总结一下，一场北约对俄罗斯的战争在任何情况下都不会有什么结果。冒着失去一切的风险，设法从对方身上赢取小块领土是毫无意义的。（而且我谈论的不只是潜在的核战事态：存在能牵缠双方派别的正经的经济联结，而损伤这种关系几乎和互相轰炸对方城市一样糟糕。）当没有一方能够入侵对方的领土并占领足够的土地以整垮对方使其屈服，那就只会是一场非常恶心的拉锯烂仗。

Finally let me point out that no wars arerepeated exactly as the previous one, yet military planners tend to fall intothe mistake of preparing for it. In WW2, the demise of France was to preparefor trench warfare and mass attacks again, but they got mobile armies and airsupport. Britain still believed in the might of the battleship, just to have itsass kicked by Japan and have most of its warships locked in Scapa Flow byGerman submarines. Most people nowadays imagine a war between Russia and NATOas some strange mix of WW2 and Cold War plans. No it’ll never happen. Not thatway.

最后我得指出的是：没有战争会完全像之前的战争一样重演，但制定军事计划的人容易犯一种错误，即按照从前那样的战争来作准备。在二战中，法国的败亡便在于他们准备的是堑壕战和应对大规模进攻，但迎接他们的却是机动化的军队和空军支援。英国人仍然信任战列舰的威力，却被日本暴捶，而且其大部分的战舰被德国潜艇斯封锁在卡帕湾。今天的大部分人，把俄罗斯和北约之间的战争想象成某种二战和冷战战法的奇怪组合。不，这绝不会发生的。不会以那种方式开打的。

2、Daniel Brockman，2016
The short form original charter for NATOwas “Keep the Germans down and the Russians out.” That endured pretty welluntil France, US, UK and Belgium ended their occupation of West Germany, theCold War came to an end, the USSR broke up, and German unification ensued.

北约最初的共同纲领，简短来说就是“压制德国，防堵俄国”。该纲领一路延续地相当好，直到法国、美国、英国和比利时结束了他们对西德的占领，冷战告终，苏联解体，紧接着发生的就是德国统一。

During the Cold War, NATO was verypessimistic that West Germany and parts of France could survive a quick WarsawPact tank invasion. Despite West Germans’ quips that the tanks would stop atthe department stores of Frankfurt, each of US, UK and France retained anddidn’t promise away the option of first nuclear strike, to deter the WarsawPact tanks.

在冷战期间，北约对于西德和法国局部能挺过一场华约组织的快速坦克入侵是非常悲观的。虽然西德人嘲讽说这些坦克会在法兰克福的百货公司前停下，为阻止华约的坦克，美英法各国都有所保留，而且不承诺先发核打击的选项。

The land of Northern Europe is relativelyflat, with short distances and good roads between capital cities.

北欧的土地相对平坦，在几个首都之间的距离很短，且有高质量的公路相连。

In my opinion, a surprise attack by Russiacould take a lot of territory in a day or two, the Baltics plus some or all ofPoland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Germany, and others. In the long term, theeconomic power of NATO would dismember the Russian government in a conventionalwar, but we must suspect any forecasts of a quick war.

以我之见，俄国搞次突然袭击便能在一两天内拿下大量领土，包括波罗的海国家加上部分或整个波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、德国以及其他国家。从长期看，北约的经济实力会在一场常规战争中肢解俄国政府，但我们必须怀疑一场速决战前会有任何预告。

A Crimea-style invasion by Russia couldseize direct control of the governments. Because one wouldn’t see largeequipment moving around, and because such invasion would masquerade as apopular uprising, with lots of propaganda about the Russians coming to theheroic rescue of the locals, this could get sticky quickly. I hope but don’tknow that NATO has gamed out suitable preparations and defenses to disable suchan invasion within hours.

一场克里米亚式的俄国入侵能够抢占对政府的直接控制。因为你不会看到大批装备四处转悠，而且由于这种入侵会伪装成一场人民起义，会有很多关于俄国人英雄般地来援救当地人的宣传，这种入侵很快就会变得非常棘手。我希望却不清楚的是：北约已经制定出了适当的准备和防御计划，以在数小时内使这种入侵失效。

NATO has no reason and no motive to invadeRussia without severe provocation tantamount to hostile action by Russia.Assuming NATO had good just cause to maintain their will, the outcome would bethe long term scenario dominated eventually by NATO’s superior economiccapacity.

如果俄国没有作出等同于敌对行动的严重挑衅，北约便没有理由和动机入侵俄国。假设北约拥有上佳的正义理由来坚持其意志，最终结果会是一个长期的局面，最后会由北约优越的经济实力来支配。

Release of nuclear weapons by either sideopens Pandora’s box. Either of Russia or US retains enough to wipe out thehuman race entirely with a fraction of their arsenal, and nobody can know howthe nuclear war would work out. I don’t think any rational actor would launchthe first nuke, but the human race has exhibited, even in positions of power,the frequent historical occurrence of fools.

任何一边发射核武器会打开潘多拉的魔盒。俄国或美国用他们一小部分兵工厂生产的核武器都足以完全扫灭人类，而且没人知道核武器能不能解决问题。我不认为任何理性的行动者会去发射第一颗核弹，但人类已经频繁展示过其在历史中的愚行，就算是手握大权的人也是如此。

3、James Barends，2017
for the huffing and puffing by Putin andthe shaking in their boots by the liberal media, there are some harsh truthsthat should lay things to rest. First, Russia has a lot of nukes and and a lotof draftees in its military. A large part of its better manpower is tied up inthe strategic forces. After the US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan 14–16 yearsago, Putin ordered a survey of Russian capabilities compared to the US. Theresult was they created three Armies in effect. The bulk is the draftees whosit on the Chinese border, about 80% of the total and most of the units arelittle more than border guards. They still use leftover Soviet era equipmentand are considered third rate. The Soviet special forces were consider amongthe best in the 1980’s and it is the one branch that tried to maintain itscapabilities. Today, with investments over the last 15 years, they are amongthe best, but not highly numerous. The third group is the main Russian fightingforce which only numbers about 180,000 total men. This group has beenre-equipped with new weapons and thoroughly trained. they are generallyconsidered close to the level of the US Army, but they lack combat experienceand mobility.

对于普京的咆哮和自由媒体的心惊胆颤，有一些残酷的事实应该能平息事态。首先，俄国拥有大量核武器，而且在军中有大量征招入伍者。素质更佳的人力有一大部分归于战略部队。14-16年前美国入侵伊拉克和阿富汗，那以后，普京下令开展一项关于俄国和美国能力对比的调查。结果显示他们打造出了三支卓有成效的军队。其中一大半是应征入伍者，驻守在中国边境上，大约占到总数的80%，而且大部分部队不过是边防军。他们仍在使用苏联时代残余下来的装备，被认为属于第三等。在八十年代，苏联特种部队被认为能跻身最好的行列，而且它是设法保住了战力的一个部门。如今，有了过去超过15年的投资，他们跻身进最优，但人数不是很多。第三组是俄国主要的战斗部队，总人数只有约18万人。这一组已经换装了新武器并且经受了很彻底的训练。大体上，他们被视为接近了美国陆军的水平，但他们缺少实战经验和机动性。

Most of these troops were used to overrunthe Crimea and they have rotated through Syria to get combat experience. manywere also used to try and grab Eastern Ukraine, but they became bogged down andhave taken significant casualties there. A group that has monitored Russianobituaries indicates the Russians have lost upwards of 3500 men in Ukraine. Thelimits of this force has been show by the Russians moving man back and forthbetween Ukraine and Syria, unable to launch offensives in more than one placeat a time.

这些部队中的大部分用于侵占克里米亚，而且他们轮流前往叙利亚以获得实战经验。很多人也被用于设法攫取乌克兰东部，但他们开始在那里陷入泥沼，并付出了重大伤亡。一个监视俄国讣告的团体指出：俄国在乌克兰战死的人已经高达3500人。通过俄国人在乌克兰和叙利亚之间来回调兵的情况，展现出这支部队没有能力一次在一个地方以上展开攻势。

To put things in perspective, the areawhere the Russians are engaged in Ukraine was fought over during WW2. TheGermans had over 1 million men in the area and the Russians over 1.5 million to2 million. It is a huge area. Indeed, the shear vastness of the Ukraine createsa very effective buffer between NATO and Russia.

为了正确地看待问题，这片地区在二战期间经过了争夺，是俄国人在乌克兰参战的地方。这片地区上德国有超过100万人，而俄国有超过150至200万人。这是一片巨大的区域。乌克兰不折不扣的辽阔真的在北约和俄罗斯之间创造出了一片有效的缓冲区。

4、Eric Johnson，2015
I'll give them points for writing Russianfantasy while in support of their country. Sadly, they completely skip factsand logic in this strawman story.

我会送给他们一些写作俄国奇幻小说的要点同时支持他们的国家。遗憾的是，他们在这个稻草人故事中完全跳过了事实和逻辑。

First let's remember that the use ofmilitary force is a political decision that supports political strategies andgoals. The obvious question is what would be the political strategies and goalsfor NATO to attack Russia? None are mentioned. Ditto for the"defense-minded Russia..." who so happens to be supporting the DNRrebels in the Ukraine with Russian troops and equipment, managed the stealingof the Crimea from the Ukraine, has threatened the Baltic States, carries out probingflights of neutral Sweden & Finland with it's bombers & fighters aswell as mainland US, and in 2008 attacked Georgia to forcibly annex regionsfriendly to the Russian government.

首先，我们要记住，使用武力是一个政治决定，支持的是政治上的战略和目标。那么很明显的问题就会是：北约攻击俄罗斯的政治战略和目标会是什么？而他们啥也没提。“抱持防御思想的俄国”也同上，恰好这个俄国还在用俄国军队和装备支持着在乌克兰顿涅茨克州的叛乱，勉强从乌克兰手里窃取了克里米亚，已经威胁了波罗的海国家，用其轰炸机和战斗机对中立的瑞典和芬兰以及美国本土执行侦察飞行，还在2008年攻击格鲁吉亚，强行吞并了对俄政府友好的地区。  

Secondly, the article completely forgets tomention the constraints on Russia's conventional forces that includemaintaining a credible force along the Chinese border, dealing with Islamicextremists in Chechnya & Dagestan, assisting DNR with"volunteers" from Russian army, and a garrison along the Georgianborder. These are on top of what would be needed to attack NATO members. It'snot hard to see where one or more of these areas would be inclined to takeadvantage of Russian military being busy with some kind of a NATO clash andcausing additional trouble for them.

其次，完全没提对俄国常规军的制约因素，包括在中国边境常备一支可靠的军队，在车臣和达吉斯坦应付伊斯兰极端分子，用从俄国陆军中抽调的“志愿军”驰援顿涅茨克州，以及格鲁吉亚边境沿线的驻屯军。这些可都要比攻击北约成员国来得紧要。不难看出，这其中一个或多于一个的地区会倾向于利用俄军忙于某种北约冲突，而给他们制造额外的麻烦。

Since NATO members Estonia, Latvia,Lithuania, and Poland only share a fairly short border with Russia & it'sprovince of Kaliningrad, let's look at a scenario there where Putin decides the"Russian speaking" people in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are atrisk from bad people and decides to invade to protect them. Let's assume hemanages to pull this off with little preparations by these countries and NATOand manages to capture 50% before NATO wakes up and starts to respond. Let'salso say that NATO leadership needs to have their coffee and breakfast beforethey can get around to discussing their response and it takes them a day tocome to a consensus.  

因为北约成员国爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛和波兰只与俄罗斯及其加里宁格勒州共享相对较短的边界线，让我们研究一下，在某个剧本中，普京认定在爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛国内“说俄语”的人民存在受恶人侵害的风险，并决定入侵这些国家以保护他们。让我们假设因为这些国家和北约没有防备让普京勉强实现了这一点，而且在北约猛醒并开始作出回应前，完成了50%的占领工作。让我们也假设：北约领导层在他们能抽出时间商议他们的回应前，需要享用完他们的咖啡和早餐，而这将耗费他们一天的时间来达成共识。

So, the Russians are inside these threecountries by 100 miles or more when NATO starts sending in 200+ fighter jets andparatroopers to blunt the attack. Some tanks & APCs road march from Poland& Germany while others are coming by train & flatbed trucks. It seemsit would not take long for the Russian Army to get bogged down with theseattacks as NATO reinforcements show up by the hour. Russian Air Forces would beat a severe disadvantage as NATO AWACS can give much better command and controlof the skies allowing NATO fighter jets the information advantage in theiroffensive and defensive movements. Then what will Russia do as their 100+ milelong logistics tail gets beaten up by aerial attacks?

于是，俄国人深入了这三个国家境内一百英里或更多，这时北约开始派出200多架战机以及空降兵以挫俄锐气。一部分坦克和穿甲弹从波兰和德国出发行军，同时其他人也正乘坐火车和平板卡车前来。似乎利用这些进攻让俄陆军陷入泥潭不会花费很长时间，因为北约增援部队以精确到小时的速度出现了。俄空军将居于严重的劣势，因为北约的预警机能更好地控制空域并给出指令，这就使得北约战机在它们的进攻和防御行动中被赋予了信息优势。那么，当俄国长达100多英里的后勤补给线被空袭暴打时，他们会怎么做呢？

Let's reverse things and suppose NATOsomehow decides to shake off their defense only historical position and to takethe offense and attack Russia grabbing an arc around the Baltic States that's50 miles deep while staying away from St Petersburg and Moscow to"punish" Putin for some reason. The NATO logistics tail is much smaller and the forces guarding it arelikely to be better equipped vs the Russian military. The local population ismuch, much smaller and since guns are not allowed in Russia there shouldn't betoo much resistance from them. In this case, I see a stalemate occurring as theRussian military would not be able to dislodge the NATO forces.

让我们反过来想，假设北约不知怎么的决定摆脱只在历史位置防御的现状，并转而采取进攻俄国，拿下波罗的海国家周围一块深入俄土50英里的圆弧地带，同时因为一些原因远离圣彼得堡和莫斯科以“惩罚”普京。北约的后勤补给线的规模小得多，而且守护它的军队可能要比俄军的装备更好。当地的人口要少得多，而且因为枪支在俄国是不被允许的，不应该会出现太多的抵抗。在这种情况里，我看到会有一种僵局发生，因为俄军将没有能力驱逐北约部队。

So, NATO would stand a pretty decent chanceagainst Russia in both defensive and offensive scenarios.

所以，北约在防御和进攻的场景里对抗俄国时，都有相当大的机会取胜。

In any case, I do not see either scenarioas being realistic in today's political environment.

不管怎么说，在今天的政治环境中，我看不到任何一种场景在现实中的可能性。

5、Björn Drescher，2015
Just a few simple comparisons:
1) Total population: NATO 906 million vsRussia 143 million
2) GDP: NATO 37.5 trillion dollars vsRussia 1.18 trillion
3) Soldiers (ground forces only): NATO 2.3million vs Russia 400k
4) Air Force: Couldn't find any numbers onNATO in total, but the US alone has almost twice as many combat planes thanRussia.

此处做一些简单的比较:
1）  总人口：北约9.06亿 vs 俄罗斯1.43亿
2）  GDP：北约37.5万亿美元 vs 俄罗斯1.18万亿美元
3）  军人（仅地面部队）：北约230万 vs 俄罗斯40万
4）空军：北约的总数找不到资料，但美国一家就拥有几乎两倍于俄罗斯的战机

And you really think in a conventional allout war would be a contest? Russia may make some initial progress, as theygenerally seem to have a higher readiness status than european armies, but inthe event of an all out war they would have to draft and train millions ofrecruits first, which would give NATO plenty of time to react. People regularlyunderestimate the time and effort required to get a peace time military readyfor all out war.

而你真的认为在一场全面战争中会有的比？俄国可能会在一开始取得一些进展，因为他们大体上似乎比欧洲军队的战备状态更好，但在一场全面战争中，他们将不得不先征召并训练数百万的新兵，这就会给到北约足够时间来作出反应。人们通常都会低估一支和平时期的军队为全面战争做好准备所需的时间和精力。

The bigger danger to NATO is really thekind of low level warfare that Russia practices in the Ukraine. If Russia wouldstart an all out war, NATO members are sure to rally behind a common cause. IfRussia would only attack single member nations, like the baltic states, Ipersonally doubt that all the NATO states would be willing to send soldiers todie when they are not seeing themselves in immediate danger.

对北约来说，更大的危险是俄罗斯在乌克兰操行的那种低烈度战争。如果俄国要开启一场全面战争，北约成员一定会在共同的目标前团结一致。如果俄国攻击的只是单一的成员国，比如波罗的海国家，我个人会怀疑所有的北约国家在看不到降临到他们头上的紧迫危险时，还会不会愿意派军队去赴死。

All that being said, if Russia wouldeventuall lose a conventional war, they have enough nukes left to make everyonelose...

尽管如此，如果俄国最终输掉一场常规战争，他们也拥有足够的核武器能让所有人皆输...