印度应立刻向中国发动贸易战 [美国媒体]

India, China fail to break ice on fixing the $51 billion trade deficit

印度和中国未能在解决510亿美元贸易逆差问题上取得突破

New Delhi: India and China failed to come up with a joint statement after the 11th joint economic group (JEG) meeting on Monday, unable to agree on how to effectively address India’s massive $51 billion trade deficit with its northern neighbour.

新德里方面消息：在周一举行的第十一届联合经济集团会议后，印度和中国未能达成一项联合声明，无法就如何有效解决印度与其北方邻国的巨额贸易逆差达成一致。

In October, India and the US also failed to issue a joint statement under the trade policy forum dialogue owing to unresolved differences.

在去年十月，由于很多未解决的分歧，印度和美国也未能在贸易政策论坛的对话中发表联合声明。

The India-China JEG is a minister-level dialogue established in 1988 during the visit of prime minister Rajiv Gandhi to China.

印中联合经济集团会议是1988年总理拉吉夫甘地访华期间建立的部长级别的对话机制。

Explaining why a joint statement could not be brought out, an Indian official speaking on condition of anonymity said India was expecting a concrete road map to address issues raised by it which the Chinese side failed to provide. “By the end of the discussions, there were not enough common ground to put out a joint statement,” he added.

一名不愿透露姓名的印度官员在解释为什么联合声明没有被达成时，表示印度正在期待一份具体的路线图来解决中国方面未能提供的问题。“但在讨论结束时，我们并没有足够的共同立场发表联合声明，”他补充说。

Instead of a joint statement, the Indian side issued a statement holding that the JEG between is the oldest and most important dialogue mechanism to address the “most important issue” of India’s trade imbalance with China.

印度方面发表了一份声明，但却没有发表一份联合声明，而是发表了一份单方面声明，称这是解决印度与中国贸易不平衡这一“最重要问题”的最古老、最重要的对话机制。

The statement said trade minister Suresh Prabhu “exhorted” his Chinese counterpart Zhong Shan to provide greater market access for agricultural products like rapeseed, soybean, basmati and non-basmati rice, fruits, vegetables and sugar.

声明说，贸易部长苏雷什·普拉布“劝告”他的中国同行钟山时说：中国应该为印度的油菜籽、大豆、巴斯马蒂大米及非巴斯马蒂大米、水果、蔬菜和糖等农产品提供更大的市场准入机制。

“Another commodity which could be exported from India to China is high quality pharmaceutical products. Export of India’s IT and IT-enabled Services to China and cooperation in the sectors of tourism and healthcare needs to be focused upon,” the statement said.

“而另一种可以从印度出口到中国的商品则是高质量的医药产品。该声明称，印度可以向中国出口IT产品和IT服务，另外旅游和医疗领域的合作也需要重点关注。

The Indian commerce ministry statement said Zhong welcomed Indian investment in China and “promised” to address the trade deficit.

印度商务部的声明说，钟山欢迎印度在中国的投资，并“承诺”解决贸易逆差问题。

“The minister highlighted the important issues discussed in the meeting like two-way trade relations, preparation of an action plan, greater focus on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and e-dialogue,” the statement added.

声明还说：“部长强调了会议中对话讨论的重要问题，如双边贸易关系、行动计划的准备、对区域全面经济伙伴关系和电子对话的关注。”

Zhong said “candid and effective” discussions with India on trade relations can serve as the propeller for the growth not just of the two countries but the entire region.

钟山说，他与印度就贸易关系进行“坦诚而有效”的讨论，这不仅可以促进两国的发展，也可以成为整个地区的发展动力。

India has often expressed frustration with the promises made by China, drawing a contrast with Chinese non-tariff barriers that prevent Indian companies accessing the Chinese market.

印度经常对中国做出的承诺表示失望，这与中国的非关税壁垒形成了鲜明对比，就是这些壁垒阻碍了印度企业进入中国市场。

At the 10th meeting of the India-China JEG four years ago in Beijing both sides had reaffirmed their determination to expand and diversify bilateral trade and economic cooperation. The two sides agreed to take positive steps towards rebalancing bilateral trade and addressing the existing structural imbalance in trade that has a bearing on its sustainability. Both the countries had also signed the Five-Year Development Program for Economic and Trade Cooperation that lays out a road map for comprehensively deepening and balancing bilateral economic engagement.

四年前在北京举行的中印两国集团第十次会议上，双方重申了扩大双边贸易和经济合作的决心。
双方同意采取积极措施，实现双边贸易再平衡，解决贸易中存在的结构性失衡问题，这对其可持续性具有影响。两国还签署了经济和贸易合作五年发展计划，为全面深化和平衡两国经济交往制定了路线图。



Lets discuss about today's topic.
In the fiscal year 2017, America has $375 Billion trade deficit with China.
For the Indian fiscal year, India has got $51 Billion trade deficit with China.
While we are not an economist, as far as we understand, When top most economy in the world cannot survive Chinese "Make your neighbor Beggar" Policy, there should be no doubt that India can survive through it.
As part of its insurance policy, Amid intensifying trade war with America, China is looking for better relationship with other large markets such as India.
But we must not forget China has consistently failed to ease the access to Chinese markets to Indian companies.
In fact, after last month’s Joint Economic Group meeting, The joint statement could not be released only because china could not effectively address India's Massive $51 Billion Trade deficit concerns.
It is not that we have nothing to export to China, The problem is China doesn’t want to import from India, after all it's policy is to make India a beggar.
If China is throwing money in Pakistan, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka, it’s we who are indirectly funding such Chinese acts.
For example, Total worth of China Pakistan Economic Corridor projects is 60 Billion dollars. In last year alone, we have given away 50 Billion Dollars to China.
No wonder, all of Indian neighbors have fallen in love with Chinese money.
That’s how, we have created the monster, we are not able to handle now.
When America is starting its trade war with China, we Indian must not become a part of insurance policy for China.
As far as we understand, we need not sit on the side lines in this trade war.
Rather We must aggressively play our part and bargain hard with China.
The current broken system has heavily benefitted China. Now it’s time to change it.
In fact, this trade war will not go till the very end, after few rounds of American moves and Chinese counter moves , Negotiations will pave the way for new system.
Few months ago, if India had started trade war with china, it would not have mattered to China.
But Now, if India makes China face the consequences for not granting its market access to Indian firms, It will definitely hurt China.
We want to have good friendly relationship with China. But Chinese make your neighbor beggar policy should end.
As per your views, should India become part of Chinese Insurance policy amid trade war with America?

好，让我们来讨论一下今天的话题。在2017财政年度里，美国对中国的贸易逆差为3750亿美元。而在印度的财政年度，印度与中国的贸易逆差则为510亿美元。
虽然我们不是经济学家，但众所周知，世界上觉大多数的经济体都无法在中国这种“抢邻居的饭碗，让邻居去当要饭”的政策中幸存下来。但是毫无疑问，印度却有能力在这种情况下它生存下去。
当中国与美国之间发生日益惨烈的贸易战之时，作为其风险管控政策的一部分，中国正在寻求与印度等其他大型市场建立更加良好的关系。
但是我们也不能忘记，中国一直没有开放印度企业进入中国市场的便利。事实上，在上个月的联合经济小组会议之后，联合声明没有被达成，因为中国无法有效解决印度巨大的510亿美元的贸易赤字问题。
这并不是说我们没有什么东西可以出口到中国，问题是中国并不想从印度进口，毕竟它的政策就是让印度成为一个乞丐。
如果中国向巴基斯坦、马尔代夫、尼泊尔和斯里兰卡投资，我们就会间接资助中国的行为。
例如，中国的巴基斯坦经济走廊项目总价值为六百亿美元。
而仅仅在去年一年，我们就向中国捐赠了五百亿美元，这就是我们资助对手的方式。
毫无疑问，所有的印度邻居都爱上了中国口袋里的钱，我们之前束手无策。所以现在当美国开始与中国开启贸易战时，我们印度人不能成为中国的风险政策的一部分。
就我们所知，在这场贸易战中，我们不能坐在次要的位置上看戏。相反，我们必须积极发挥自己的作用，与中国讨价还价。
当前印度的破碎贸易体系给中国带来了巨大的好处。现在是时候改变它了。
事实上，经过几轮美国的行动和中国的反击，这场贸易战要到最后才会结束，谈判将为新的贸易体系铺平道路。
如果几个月前，印度与中国展开贸易战的话，那么印度的威胁对中国来说将是无关紧要的。但现在，假如印度让中国意识到不向印度企业开放市场的严重后果，那么此举定然会让中国感到切肤之痛。
我们希望与中国建立良好的友好关系。但是中国人那种“走别人的路，让别人无路可走”的政策应该结束。
那么你的观点呢，你认为在中国与美国的贸易战中，印度是否应该成为中国分散风险政策的一部分呢？

Ravikumar Thiruchitrambalam 
Yes we should also initiate the trade actions to rectify this trade deficit problems!

没错，我们也应该启动贸易行动来纠正这种贸易逆差问题！

Priyansh Singhal 
Now we don't have enough industrial capacity that we can fulfill our own market demands, so increasing tariffs on Chinese imports will simply increase the inflation. And we know 2019 is near, so this move will prove to be bad for MODI govt..
US has increased tariffs so that its local manufacturers can compete with the Chinese ones. By this move US will improve some of its sectors but some of it's sectors will also be damaged which use cheap Chinese imports and process them to make competitive goods , so here US will face no gain no loss. Well China has also increased tariffs for US exports to China, this will also hurt sectors of US economy.
What we can do is that-:
1) Make our local manufacturing industry more strong & more competitive.
2)Increase tariffs on such Chinese imports which can be easily manufactured here, or give tax waivers to local exporters so that they can become more competitive.
3)Put pressure on China that if it wants free trade with others then it have to give free trade to others also. And this time is the GOLDEN time for this move.
And if we include Japan and some of our European friends (because they are also fed up with China) then it will be complete BANG ON to China.

问题是，现在我们没有足够的工业能力来满足我们自己的市场需求，因此增加中国进口关税只会增加通货膨胀。而且我们知道2019年将近，所以这一举措对于莫迪政府的选举来说将是不利的。
美国已经提高了关税，以便当地制造商能够与中国制造商竞争。通过这一举措，美国将改善其部分行业，但其中一些行业也将受到损害，这些行业使用廉价的中国进口产品，并二次加工成具有竞争力的商品，因此美国总体上既不会得到什么，也不会损失什么。而且中国也增加了对美国对华出口关税，这也会伤害美国经济部门。
我们印度可以做的是：
1）使本地制造业更加强大和更具竞争力。
2）提高中国进口产品的关税，以便于这些产品可以在这里轻松生产，或者向当地出口商减免税收，从而提高产品竞争力。
3）对中国施加压力，如果它想与他人进行自由贸易，那么它也必须给他人自由贸易。这一次中美贸易大战是这次我们采取行动的黄金时间。如果再加上我们那些来自日本和欧洲的一些朋友（因为他们也厌倦了中国），那么它将会沉重地打击中国。

Abhimanyu 
to be very honest this is exactly what I have been in discussion with some of my friends, amazingly you have explored every bit about what India can and should do..... Go to manufacturing not just importing and selling with a level. Most of imports from China are gadgets of daily use which we can easily manufacturer and save billions of dollars that's exactly what you have mentioned. Very important view point for the problem.

亲爱的楼主，说老实话，这正是我一直在和我的一些朋友讨论的内容，令人惊讶的是，你已经探索出了印度可以做什么和应该做什么的每一种方法......
让我们去制造产品，而不仅仅是进口和销售产品。 大部分从中国进口的产品都是日常用品，这些我们可以轻松制造并节省数十亿的美元，这正是您所提到的。 也是对于这个问题非常重要的观点。

Shantanukumar Maity 
India must export any how, they have to buy.. Otherwise tariff is alternative way to deal china..

不管怎么样印度必须出口点什么东西，而他们也必须购买。。。否则，关税制裁将是对付中国的替代方案..

Chandeep Singh Batra 
Good... we should raise duties on Chinese consumer products unless china buys more from us

很好...我们应该提高中国消费品的关税，除非中国向我们购买更多的产品

drgmbhatia1 
Of China’s 550B dollars of annual trade surplus, the US alone contributes $375 Billion filling 2/3 of Communists’ sinful dollar belly while India by providing $65B annual trade surplus out of bilateral trade of 85B fills nearly 1/3 of the remaining part. Two-way British-Chinese trade is $49B providing Chinese trade surplus of $24B billion, France-China $68B giving trade surplus $34B, China-Russia $80B with virtually balanced trade. The International Institute of Finance estimates that China’s total debt level breached the threshold of 300% of GDP in May 2017. Chinese central bank debt is “officially” at $32 Trillion & unofficially nearly twice as much and a large part of it with shadow banking. That makes China internally bankrupt & Yuan (RMB) virtually a toilet paper. 
China is surviving because of external trade. If the US finds alternate markets to substitute Chinese imports, Chinese economy will tail-spin. India also provides significant trade surplus & if India follows suit it can act as catalyst. India needs to take two-way action : Fill the vacuum created by loss of Chinese exports to the US & reduce trade balance with China by enhanced “Make in India” programs & by finding alternate sources to Chinese products. In terms of PPP India’s GDP is  3rd largest in the world & 5th largest in dollar terms and twice as big  as that of Russia. In case of significant trade-war, China would need India’s huge consumer market to off set economic melt down.There would be opportunities to increase India's exports. Indian leadership can also permit access to Indian markets as a trade off against finding satisfactory  permanent solution to  Indo-China border & administrative participation in PoK to join CPEC. Only a mature & strong Indian leadership can extract advantage out of the evolving situation.

中国每年的贸易顺差为5500亿美元，仅美国就贡献了3750亿美元，填补了共产党三分之二的美元大肚子.而印度则通过在八百五十亿美元的双边贸易中提供每年六百五十亿美元的贸易顺差，填补剩余部分的近三分之一。
英中双边贸易额为490亿美元，中国贸易顺差为240亿美元，法中贸易额为680亿美元，贸易顺差为340亿美元，中俄贸易额为800亿美元。国际金融研究所估计，中国债务总额在2017年5月的时候突破了国内生产总值的300％。中国央行的“正式”债务为32万亿美元，非正式增长近两倍，其中很大一部分是影子银行。这使得中国从内部破产，人民币几乎成了卫生纸。
中国因外贸而生存。如果美国发现替代性市场取代中国进口，中国经济将出现尾随下滑。印度也为中国提供了重大的贸易顺差，如果印度能够顺其形势，它可以成为催化剂。
印度需要采取双向行动：填补由于中国对美出口减少而创造的真空，并通过加强“印度制造”计划，和寻找中国产品的替代来源来减少与中国的贸易平衡。
就平价购买力而言，印度的GDP在全球排名第三，名义GDP也排名第五，是俄罗斯的两倍。如果发生重大贸易战，中国将需要印度巨大的消费市场来抵消经济下滑。
这将有机会增加印度的出口。印度领导层也可以通过允许中国进入印度市场，作为对印度-支那边境，以及阻止巴基斯坦加入中巴经济走廊永久解决方案的一种折衷。只有成熟和强大的印度领导层才能从不断变化的情况中获得优势。

Rajeev Kamalasanan 
I always believed that regulating trade with China will put it in it's place proper. 
Chinese prospered very at the expense the other nations by faking weak currency, hence making it's good looking attractive! 
India is on a unfair trade deficit with China..it is now or Never! Go for it India!

我一直认为，我们应该规范中印贸易，并将把它放入正轨上。
中国人通过伪造疲软的货币而来意牺牲其他国家，因此使他们的产品看起来很吸引人！
印度与中国存在不公平的贸易逆差..现在或永远不会！ 去印度吧！

Devil Hex 
True. I am honestly too surprised that Modi government hasn't tried to correct Congress's shit in the last decade. But all Modi government did was anti-dumping act.
Either way, this is the best time to start a trade war with China. Hit them when they are low. Especially if EU joins in too, then it'll be a huge success.

真正。 老实说，莫迪政府在过去十年中并没有试图纠正国会的大错，对此我感到很吃惊。 但莫迪政府所做的一切都是反倾销行为。
无论如何，这是与中国展开贸易大战的最佳时机---当他们落水时痛打他们。 特别是如果欧盟也加入进来的话，那将是一个巨大的成功。

Pranav Bhatki 
I don't think the bjp govt is silent on development matters. Modi has started MAKE IN INDIA which has lured many big companies to open factories. Bjp govt has also done away with red tape document process making it easier to start a business. These all factors will surely contribute to trade war

我不认为本届政府在发展问题上会保持沉默。 莫迪已经启动了印度制造业协会，它已经吸引了许多大公司开设工厂。 政府也取消了繁文缛节的文件流程，使创业变得更容易。 这些所有因素肯定会有利于贸易战。