中国认为美国在衰弱吗？ [美国媒体]

-------------译者：咖喱兔肉-审核者：zhoujianjie------------



It has been fashionable in national security circles over the last several years for U.S. experts on Asia-Pacific security to claim that Chinese strategists perceive the U.S. to be in decline. As Daniel Blumenthal queried Ambassador John Bolton at a November 2015 forum at the American Enterprise Institute: “I don’t mean to ask such a leading question… Do you think China perceives us as… declining…?” Predictably, Bolton answered in the affirmative and went on to explain that the U.S. confronts a grave credibility problem. A similar line of thinking seems also to undergird more centrist appraisals in Washington that highlight China’s “brimming confidence” as part of the problem confronting U.S. national security policy. To be fair, there has been some evidence from Chinese sources, particularly in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, for that line of reasoning. But even during that unstable time, key Chinese sources, including analyses by military experts, did not forecast any diminution of America's military advantage.

过去几年来国家安全圈里有这么一种趋势，即美国亚太安全专家声称中国的战略家察觉到了美国进入了衰退期。正如丹尼尔先生（Daniel Blumenthal）在2015年11月美国企业研究所论坛上提问约翰博尔顿（John Bolton）大使的那段话：“我并不想问这么一个问题……你认为中国察觉到我们的衰退了么？”果不其然，博尔顿（Bolton ）给出了肯定的回答，并进一步解释说美国面临严重的信誉问题。类似的观点也同样存在在华盛顿的温和派中，他们强调中国的”充满信心“已经成为美国国家安全政策的一个难题。事实上，这个推理的证据是来源于中国的一些证据的，特别是2008年金融危机之后。但是在那个动荡不安的年代，中国的主流观点（包括军事专家分析）并没有预测到美国军事优势的降低。

-------------译者：ooohmygod-审核者：rumor四起------------

Undoubtedly, sound U.S. policy toward China will take account of how Chinese strategists assess American power. Indeed, the prevailing wisdom that China perceives U.S. frailty seems to form an important tenet of the logic of those arguing for more robust U.S. military deployments to the western Pacific, lest Beijing sense that Washington is weak in either resolve or capabilities. However, a spate of new Chinese analyses from 2015 seem to call into question these assumptions regarding Beijing’s view of the emerging balance of power. A series of articles and two fora were published on the subject of hypothetical “U.S. decline” [美国衰落] during 2015 by the two major Chinese journalsContemporary International Relations [现代国际关系] and The Chinese Journal of American Studies [美国研究]. This edition of Dragon Eye will examine these discussions with the hope of shedding additional light on current Chinese perceptions of America’s trajectory.

毋庸置疑，一个有效的美国对华政策，必须考虑到到中国的战略家们如何评估美国的实力。这种认为中国感知到美国弱点的看法促使某些人认为应该在西太平洋部署更多的美国军队以防北京察觉到美国在决心或者能力上的虚弱。然后2015年来自中国的一系列新观点对有关北京对新兴的权力平衡的观点的假设提出了质疑。2015年间，中国的两个主要期刊“现代国际关系”和“美国研究”，在一系列的文章以及两次论坛中，都发布了关于“美国衰落”的假想主题。这一期的“龙睛”，将会试图拨开中国对美观点的重重迷雾，来审视各色观点。


-------------译者：咖喱兔肉-审核者：kelvin1945------------

The Norseman • a day ago
1) It will be 30 years before the PRC even gets near the USA's military capability.
2) The USA has allies. Not partners like the PRC and Russia, but real allies. The PRC has LOTS of enemies, though.
3) The PRC's success in stealing modern technology will be short-lived as the West learns it's lesson. The civilized democracies of the world will continue to innovate, however.

1）中国的军事实力要追上美国起码要30年。
2）美国有很多梦游，不是像中国和俄罗斯那样的盟友，是真正的盟友。然而中国有非常多的敌人。
3）中国偷技术的成功注定是短暂的，因为西方吸取了教训。然而世界上文明民主的国家将会继续创新。
 
aspone  The Norseman • a day ago
Allies dont exist in geopolitics. It's all about the money you idiot. All america's "allies" joined the china-led aiib.

 盟友和地区政治无关。傻瓜，盟友只在乎钱。所有美国的”盟友“都加入了中国领导的亚投行。
 
Scott Schymick  aspone • 18 hours ago
Yeah, but then the USA turned around and got a lot of countries on board with the TPP

是的，但美国转过身让许多国家上了TPP的船。

-------------译者：咖喱兔肉-审核者：rumor四起------------
 
Merlion Economist  Scott Schymick • 18 hours ago
Yes, by offering lots of carrots. That will be a loss for american jobs cause this TPP means more access to american markets which are still heavily protected.
China did not lean on her partners and friends or enemies and said you must not join. China is giving joining the TPP serious thought but only when she is ready cause it will mean good protection for her intellectual property and industries which is on the up and up. and really good access to america;s markets which is still heavily protected. Lots of american companies doing their research and dev in China also.
Will be like joining the WTO all over again. This is why China does not resist it. She doesn't play that way.

 是的，通过提供大量的好处。那意味着美国会失去更多就业机会，因为TPP将使得更多商品进入目前仍受到严重保护的美国市场。
中国没有依赖其伙伴，朋友或者敌人，也没有要求他们不要加入。中国正在认真思考是否加入TPP，但是只有在中国准备好时才会加入，因为加入TPP意味着其知识产权和不断壮大的工业受到良好保护，而且能很好的进入目前仍然受到良好保护的美国市场。美国也有许多企业在中国研究和开发。
所以这就像再次加入WTO一样。所以中国并不抵制TPP。中国不这么玩。
 
USofA  Merlion Economist • 13 hours ago
Those are jobs we dont have already (low labor). China doesnt have the soft power to sway others away. This has been proven countless times.

那些工作我们早就没有了（低等劳动的工作）。中国没有【软权利】（注析1）去左右其他国家。这在过去无数次都得到了证明。

注析1：【软权利】指的是影响别人选择的能力，如有吸引力的文化、意识形态和制度。

-------------译者：咖喱兔肉-审核者：rumor四起------------

A Chinese  USofA • 12 hours ago
China's patent registrations have surpassed the American and Japanese last year. TPP's emphasis on IP protection is good for China, even if China does not join the TPP because China can cite TPP's rules to protect its IP rights against the TPP members, so that the American and Japanese cannot steal Chinese IP with impunity.

 中国的专利申请在上一年已经超过了美国和日本。TPP对知识产权的强调有利于中国，即使中国没有加入TPP，因为中国在面对TPP成员时可以引用TPP条款来保护自己的知识产权，这样美国人和日本人就无法在不受惩罚的情况下窃取中国的知识产权了。
 
USofA  A Chinese • 8 hours ago
why do you think they are not eligible to join currently LMAO

中国目前没资格加入的原因是什么你知道吗，真是笑死宝宝了。
 
USofA  A Chinese • 8 hours ago
China does not have IP laws currently. FAIL

 中国还没有关于知识产权的法律，（所以加入）失败。
 
Hi banana republic  USofA • 12 hours ago
go to Vietnam Laos Cambodia and have a look all their factory run by Chinese...China slowly get rid of all primary industry
and place them elsewhere.....upgrade yr knowledge first before debate with others

 去越南，老挝，柬埔寨那里吧，你可以看到他们所有的工厂都是由中国经营的……中国正慢慢的摆脱所有的初级产业并将这些产业迁到其他国家……在与其他人辩论之前学多点知识吧
 
USofA  Hi banana republic • 8 hours ago
they are not in the TPP

 他们不在TPP里面（可能指的是前文的越南，老挝，柬埔寨没加入TPP）
 
USofA  aspone • 13 hours ago
haha the bank only has $100bil.. Others, have trillions.
good luck, youll need it.

哈哈，亚投行只有1000亿美元，而其他开发银行有万亿美元。
祝你好运，（我想）你会需要的

注析1：这里的IP指的是 intellectual property ，也就是知识产权。

-------------译者：咖喱兔肉-审核者：rumor四起------------
 
The Way  The Norseman • 12 hours ago
1. Why 30, and not 10, or 1 ? Yes, you got it right out of your a**
2. First of all, for most countries, or for all people if they are rational, see the u.s. as a terrorist state. China on the other hand make it a policy to not have alliance to not make the mistake of the past. The question is, if there is war, can China defeat the U.S., and if there is no war, can China defeat the U.S. What does defeat entail in both cases.
3. LOL... Do you know even know what "innovation" mean?

1、为什么是30，而不是10，或者1。说的，你是从你的月冈门（Asshole）里拿出来的。
2、首先，对大多数国家来说，只要他们的人民是理智的，会将美国看做一个恐怖分子的国家。中国制定了不结盟的政策，不会犯以前的错误。问题来了，如果发生战争，中国能打败美国吗，如果没有，中国能打败美国吗。什么情况下中国才能在这两种情况下都做到呢？
3、哈哈哈，你知道什么叫创新么？

-------------译者：lovely-审核者：rumor四起------------

Merlion Economist  The Norseman • 19 hours ago
Let me answer your points.
1) Its of no concern for China to achieve parity with the US militarily in 30 years because it doesn't matter now, or even 30 years ago. China has been getting what it wants and its able to get what it wants with what she has. That is a slow and methodical rise that now challenges the US. Her rise has diminished american geopolitical power to a huge extent. Thats just unprecedented. She did it without using her military. She's going to do it for the next 30 years without using her military which gets ever bigger by the day. She is achieving her goal of a declining US simply by letting the US be herself. US will make the US decline faster than china ever could. You don't need a huge military to do that, so China achieves her goals.
2) US had allies. Now the US have partners. Her allies poked her in the eyes and joined the AIIB. With allies like these who needs enemies. This is just evidence of the diminishing influence the US has. And this is despite her huge military, which emphasizes my first point.
3) Her so called success in gaining access to technology that are bared to her plays a huge part in her development. Instead of going no where for 60 odd years like the Indians, China has surpassed the US as the largest economy and trading nation in this Universe, whilst the Indians have regressed.. No small feat. Not an insignificant feat. This isn't short lived, cause it could be still happening on a mega mega scale as we speak.
Of course I don't have any evidence that china is stealing so this is all conjecture at this stage.
China is innovating now cause she's got the money to devote to R&D. The US is in Decline so the US has innovated less.

让我来回答你的问题。
1）中国根本不关心自己是否可以在30年内在军事上和美国持平，因为现在这已经不重要了，甚至在30年前也是不重要的。中国已经得到了它想要的，它能够得到它所想要的东西。这是一个缓慢而有条理的上升，现在挑战美国。她的崛起在很大程度上削弱了美国的地缘政治力量。这是前所未有的。她没有使用她的军队。未来30年中国也不会动用军队，而中国军队在一天天壮大。中国让美国成为她自己，从而成功削弱了美国。美国将比中国更快的削弱自己。而你无需动用军队来实现这一点，中国就是在没有动用军队的情况下实现目标的。
2）美国以前有盟友。现在美国有合作伙伴。但她的盟友戳她的眼睛加入了亚投行。有这样的盟友，谁还需要敌人啊。这表明了美国影响力在下降，尽管美国的军事依然强大，这强调了我的第一个观点。
3）中国获取技术促进了发展。而不是像印度人60年来一样，中国已经超越美国，成为这个宇宙中最大的经济和贸易大国，而印度人还不行。这不小的壮举。不是微不足道的功绩。就像我说的，这不是短暂的，因为这仍然是一个正在发生中的超大规模的现象。
当然我没有任何证据表明中国是在偷窃，所以目前来说这仅仅是个猜想。
中国现在正在创新，因为中国现在在研发上投入了金钱，美国是在下降，所以美国创新少了。

 -------------译者：谓我宣骄-审核者：rumor四起------------

老三  Merlion Economist • 9 hours ago
Sir, you must write logical English to make your statements understood logically. For instance, what does "the US has innovated less" mean? As far as facts are concerned, Chinese cannot live a day without US innovated tools; they even are dressed like Americans. No Chinese is dressed like a Chinese. The US has innovated more than all the other countries combined, not less. more than what China has done in its 5000 years of history.
The logical English is: The US is in decline so the US is innovating less than otherwise.
You said China has got money to devote to R&D. Why a money-rich China refuses to repay her debt she owes to American private citizens?

 先生，你必须写出符合逻辑的英语使你的陈述能够合乎逻辑地理解。如，“美国‘已经创新的’更少”是什么意思？就事实而言，没有美国创造的工具，中国人一天都不能活，他们甚至都打扮得像美国人一样。没有中国人打扮得像个中国人。美国的创新比其他所有国家的总和还多，而不是更少，超过中国在5000多年的历史中所创造的。
正确的说法是：美国正在衰弱，所以美国的创新没有以前多了。
你说中国有资金投入研发，为什么富裕的中国拒绝偿还她欠美国公民的债务？

Merlion Economist  老三 • 2 hours ago
I'm happy to have you as and editor. But of course I retain all copyrights and creative control.

我很高兴有你作为编辑。但是我保有所有的版权和创意控制。

-------------译者：账号 飞鱼-审核者：rumor四起------------

Florin • 19 hours ago
I don't think anyone can say with certainty whether the US is in decline or not.What seems like a decline now can turn out to be a temporary problem or it can turn out to be permanent.In the late 70's the US also seemed to be in decline until things changed drastically in the 80's.The Soviet Union was assumed to be largely stable despite economic and social issues then it collapsed quite quickly taking 90% of the so called experts by surprise.The problem is the future is not written yet.That doesn't mean that no one can predict it.Someone somewhere will always see what is coming but his or her voice will also be drowned out by many other voices.Trying to figure out who is right and who is wrong can be daunting to say the least.

我想没有人可以确定的说美国是不是在衰落，因为我们不能确定目前的衰落是暂时性还是永久性的。在70年代美国也被认为衰落了，直到80年代事情发生反转。尽管当时苏联充斥这经济与社会问题，但仍被认为会是稳定的，以至于它的迅速解体让90%的所谓专家跌破眼镜。在结果出来前，我们可以去预测，但是众说纷纭，我们是非难辨。

USofA  Florin • 13 hours ago
Its Obama. Once hes gone, this whole myth will disappear. Hes too soft to run the US

都怪奥巴马，等他下台就没人说这种鬼话了，那个软蛋驾驭不了美国