美专家：贸易战新出路浮现，中美两国或双赢（无评论） [美国媒体]

作者介绍：
Keith Bradsher是时报上海分社社长，曾任时报香港分社和底特律分社社长。90年代初，他作为时报驻华盛顿记者，报道了世贸组织和北美自由贸易协定的创立。



BEIJING — The United States and China have sparred repeatedly over trade, in a tit-for-tat skirmish that has shown little sign of abating. High-level talks have stalled, while both sides have been threatening further tariffs in the past week.

北京——美国和中国一直在贸易问题上争吵不休，针锋相对的冲突几乎没有缓和的迹象。高层会谈已陷入停顿，双方都在过去一周里威胁要进一步加征关税。

But beneath the acrimony, two potential paths for China seem to be emerging, according to participants in the trade negotiations and their advisers. Both would deliver trade wins for President Trump and his more moderate advisers, while also letting President Xi Jinping of China push ahead with his ambitious industrial plan to build national champions in cutting-edge technologies.

但据参与贸易谈判的人士及其顾问们说，在唇枪舌剑的背后，两条潜在的出路似乎正出现在中国面前。这两种选择都将为特朗普总统及其偏温和的顾问们带来贸易上的胜利，同时也能让中国继续推进其雄心勃勃的产业计划，在尖端技术领域打造世界领先的国家企业。



China’s stance now is that a resolution of trade tensions must not block its further economic progress, but adjustments to Made in China 2025 could happen. The latest trade figures, which came out Wednesday, show that Chinese exports continue to surge, giving Beijing some confidence. “The red line is China’s right to develop, not the concrete industrial policies and measures regarding Made in China 2025,” said He Weiwen, a former Commerce Ministry official who remains one of China’s top trade experts.

中国目前的立场是，解决贸易紧张关系不应阻碍其进一步的经济发展，但可以对《中国制造2025》做出调整。周三公布的最新贸易数据显示，中国的出口继续增长，这给北京方面带来了一些信心。“红线是中国的发展权，而不是有关《中国制造2025》的具体产业政策和措施，”前商务部官员、至今仍为中国重要的贸易专家之一的何伟文说。

To Mr. Trump and his aides, China is trade enemy No. 1. In making their case, they point to large, persistent trade deficits, as well as state-owned banks funding potential rivals to American giants in high tech and advanced manufacturing. They also worry that China is engaged in a rapid military buildup that would give Beijing ever more heft in Asia and around the world.

对特朗普及其助手来说，中国是头号贸易敌人。为了陈明依据，他们指出两国之间持续存在着巨额贸易赤字，中国国有银行在高技术和先进制造行业为可能与美国巨头竞争的对手提供资金。他们还担心，中国正在加快推进军事建设，这将让北京在亚洲和世界各地有更大的影响力。

The tariffs address part of the president’s concerns, mainly by reducing American companies’ dependency on Chinese suppliers.

加征关税解决了特朗普总统的部分担忧，关税的主要作用是减少美国公司对中国供应商的依赖。

Hundreds of Western companies already have been reconsidering China’s role in their supply chains, according to several people involved in such decisions. Executives are increasingly looking for ways to transfer the final assembly of goods to factories outside China, mainly in low-wage countries elsewhere in Asia or in Mexico.

据几位参与此类决策的人士透露，数百家西方企业已经在重新考虑中国在其供应链中的角色。企业高管们正在越来越多地想办法把产品的最终组装转移到中国以外的地方，主要是亚洲其它地区或墨西哥等低工资国家的工厂。

Doing the final assembly outside of China will allow companies to bypass the new American tariffs. It could also start to cut the deficit with China over the next couple years.

在中国以外进行最后的组装将让公司绕开美国的新设关税。这样做还可能让美国的对华贸易逆差在未来几年开始下降。

But these moves may not do much to the overall trade deficit of the United States, rearranging it instead to other countries. Companies are just relocating the last steps in production plans to places like Indonesia and Taiwan rather than bringing them back to the United States, where blue-collar labor is costly. Beijing will also retain a lot of leverage, given that the manufacturing of a long list of components, from wires and screws to electric motors and digital controls, will most likely remain in China.

但这些做法可能不会对美国的总体贸易逆差带来太大的影响，只是重新分配为与其他国家的贸易逆差而已。企业只是在把生产计划的最后一步转移到印度尼西亚和台湾等地，而不是带回美国，因为美国的蓝领劳动力成本太高。中国也将保持很大的影响力，因为包括电线、螺丝钉、电动马达和数控设备等一长串零部件的制造有很大可能将继续留在中国。

Star Rapid, a company in Zhongshan, China, makes prototypes of products for more than 400 American companies in sectors like electronics, auto parts and medical devices. It has noticed that while many companies are looking at ways to change locations for final assembly, not one seems to be moving the production of entire supply chains. The components typically account for much if not most of the value in products.

位于中国中山市的中山世达为电子、汽车零部件和医疗设备等行业的400多家美国公司制造产品原型。中山世达已经注意到，虽然许多公司都在寻找办法改变产品的最终组装地，但似乎没有一家公司要转移整个供应链的生产。元件在产品价值中通常占很大的部分（如果不是绝大部分的话）。

“They’re not looking at taking it out of China,” said David Hunter, the company’s chief executive. “They’re looking at where can they do the final transformation.”

“他们并没有打算将供应链搬出中国，”中山世达首席执行官戴维·亨特(David Hunter)说。“他们是在考虑在哪里做最后的改装。”

During second-quarter conference calls by 192 American and European companies that mentioned tariffs, 17 percent of them said that they had already begun switching suppliers, according to an analysis by Panjiva, a trade data consulting firm. About 14 percent had begun moving some of their own operations.

贸易数据咨询公司磐聚网(Panjiva)的一项分析显示，在第二季度的电话会议上，有192家欧美公司提到了关税问题，其中有17%表示已经开始改变供应商，还有约14%表示已经开始转移自己的业务。

The Trump administration can afford to stand firm. The American economy has been strong. And the tariffs that American companies face are more than offset by new tax cuts.

特朗普政府承担得起坚持下去的后果。美国的经济一直很强劲。而且，新的减税措施足以抵消美国公司所面临的关税。

Washington may find it has other headaches if tariffs persist. Some China experts worry that the administration’s trade stance could antagonize Chinese policymakers, pushing them toward a more confrontational approach on other issues.

如果关税继续加征下去的话，华盛顿可能会发现其他的麻烦。一些中国问题专家担心，美国政府的贸易立场可能会激怒中国的政策制定者，让他们在其他问题上采取更为对抗的态度。



While China is not willing to go nearly that far, it could offer some concessions that might provide an ostensible victory.

尽管中国不愿走得这么远，但它可能会做出一些或许能带来表面胜利的让步。

中国大庆的一家沃尔沃工厂。随着工业计划的实施，中国正试图提高自己在制造业价值链中的位置。

China has expressed a willingness to change parts of its industrial policy that violate global trade rules. But China’s program falls into some gray areas.

中国已表示愿意改变其产业政策中违反全球贸易规则的部分。但中国的计划中也有一些灰色地带。

While the World Trade Organization has many rules to prevent governments from subsidizing companies directly, the rules are more vague on whether a state-run banking system can provide preferential loans. Such loans have been the core of Chinese industrial policy for many years, and continue to be under Made in China 2025.

虽然世界贸易组织有许多不允许政府直接补贴企业的规则，但对国有银行系统是否能提供优惠贷款的规则却不太明确。这类贷款多年来一直是中国产业政策的核心，也将继续是《中国制造2025》的核心。

China has also begun exploring ways for Made in China 2025 to finance more research and development, instead of paying for the immediate construction of a lot of factories. World Trade Organization rules allow research subsidies.

中国已开始在《中国制造2025》的框架下探索为更多的研发提供资金的方式，而不是为马上建设大批工厂提供资金。世界贸易组织的规则允许补贴科研。

The dilemma is whether any of these tweaks to Made in China 2025 would make much of a difference and appease the Trump administration.

目前的两难问题是，对《中国制造2025》的这些微调是否会有多大作用，是否能安抚特朗普政府。



China has not yet made any such offer. And Beijing’s recent approach, although a deliberate signal of conciliation, was also just practical: China does not even import $200 billion a year worth of goods from the United States.

中国尚未提出任何这类提议。北京最近的做法，虽然有意制造了和解信号，但也属不得已：中国每年从美国进口的商品根本达不到2000亿美元。

“It’s just not a game changer,” Andrew Polk, a founder of Trivium, a Beijing consulting firm, said of the trade dispute. “The trade war, as currently constituted, can go on for some time, and both economies can muddle through it without even strong effects.”

“这还不是彻底改变局面的一步，”北京咨询公司策伟(Trivium)的联合创始人安德鲁·波尔克(Andrew Polk)在谈到此次贸易纠纷时说。“就目前而言，贸易战可能要持续一段时间，两国的经济都能应付一段时间，而不至于有太大的影响。”