如果俄罗斯在波罗的海开战，北约将快速战败 [美国媒体]

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-------------译者：yearning-审核者：纳德------------



If Russian tanks and troops rolled into the Baltics tomorrow, outgunned and outnumbered NATO forces would be overrun in under three days. That’s the sobering conclusion of war games carried out by a think tank with American military officers and civilian officials.

如果俄罗斯的坦克和部队明天就冲进波罗的海沿线，武器装备和数量上处于劣势的北约部队将在三天内被击败。这是一个由军事专家和文职官员组成的美国智囊机构通过一个战争推演得出的冷静结论。

“The games’ findings are unambiguous: As currently postured, NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members,” said a report by the RAND Corp., which led the war gaming research.

主持战争推演研究的兰德公司的一份报告中指出：“战争推演的结果是很清楚的：按照目前的情况，北约将不能成功保卫它大部分易受到攻击的成员国的领土。“

-------------译者：yearning-审核者：纳德------------

In numerous tabletop war games played over several months between 2014-2015, Russian forces were knocking on the doors of the Estonian capital of Tallinn or the Latvian capital of Riga within 36 to 60 hours. U.S. and Baltic troops — and American airpower — proved unable to halt the advance of mechanized Russian units and suffered heavy casualties, the report said.

在2014-2015年期间长达数月的多次桌面战争推演中，俄罗斯军队在36-60小时内就能攻至爱沙尼亚首都塔林或拉托维亚首都里加的城下。报告宣称，美国和波罗的海国家的部队，以及美国的空中力量，已经被证明无力阻止俄罗斯军队的前进，并将付出惨重人员伤亡的代价。


-------------译者：yearning-审核者：罗罗纳多索隆------------

Ronald 11 hours ago
I notice in this article that the United States is in the process of spending American money to shore up the defense of Europe. Why is the burden being left to the United States and it's tax payers? What the heck is wrong with Great Britton, France and Germany and the Scandinavian countries pulling their own weight, increasing their military spending and increasing their troop levels and making a larger effort to defend themselves? Why is it our obligation to defend them while our Country has crumbling infrastructure, crummy expensive health care and a mediocre educational system? What's wrong with this picture?
 
我注意到这篇文章提到美国正处于花美国人的钱来支撑欧洲防务的过程之中。为什么这个责任要让美国和它的纳税人来背负？英国、法国、德国以及斯堪的纳维亚诸国在搞什么，为什么他们不增加军备开支、提高军队水平以及作出努力保卫自己？当我们自己的国家有着年久失修的基础设施、肮脏又昂贵的卫生保健以及中庸的教育体系的时候，为什么保卫他们成为了我们的责任？怎么就搞成这样了？

Satoshi Nakamoto 12 hours ago
The only ones who want a war between Russia and Europe are the same warmongers who start every war, the US. Get Nato out of our nations before they suicide Europe in a proxy war against Russia. It is insane for h-wites to ever go to war. Our nations are being invaded.

唯一一个希望俄罗斯和欧洲开战的家伙就是那个发起每次战争的战争狂——美国。让北约在开启一个和俄罗斯的傀儡战争并牺牲掉欧洲之前滚出我们的国家。让白人去打仗是疯狂的。我们的国家正在被侵略。

-------------译者：yearning-审核者：罗罗纳多索隆------------

beachcombr 11 hours ago 6 60
I don't doubt this wargame is correct- Russia could roll through the Baltics, and nothing present in Europe right now would stop them. The U.S. could reinforce Europe sufficiently to eventually throw them out, but it would not be easy or cheap.
The biggest problem I see with this is why it's considered an exclusively American problem.
NATO is supposed to be an alliance where all members contribute. But outside of Britain and (to some extent) Poland, it's basically a club for countries to free-ride on U.S. defense spending. If Russia is a credible threat to alliance members (and it certainly has the means to threaten the Baltics- the motivation is questionable) the European counties (yes, that means you, Germany, with your big industrial economy) need to greatly increase their military capabilities and become truly credible partners in their own mutual defense.
Europe is certainly collectively big enough to strand up to Russia now (which has only a slim fragment of the Soviet Union's military power). If they choose not to, it is not the U.S.' sole responsibility to bail them out in perpetuity. Other NATO members need to get serious about kicking in.

我不怀疑这个战争推演的结果是否正确——俄罗斯能够席卷波罗的海沿岸，而且目前欧洲没有任何能够阻止他们的力量。美国可以充分的增援欧洲并最终将他们赶出去，但这并不容易而且代价不低。
我看到的最大的问题是为什么这被视为一个美国专属的问题。
北约应该是一个所有成员都能贡献力量的联盟。但是除了英国以及某种程度上的波兰，这基本上就是一个靠美国防务支出不劳而获的国家俱乐部。如果俄罗斯对于联盟成员来说是一个确实的威胁（当然这就意味着威胁到波罗的海沿岸——这个动机是未必可信的），欧洲国家们（对，就是你，德国，拥有强大工业经济的国家）需要大规模提升他们的军事实力并在他们的共同防御上成为真实可靠的伙伴。
目前欧洲确实在总体上已经足够强大到可以让俄罗斯陷于困境（后者只保留了苏联军事力量的很小的一部分）。如果他们不选择这么做，那么这就不是美国自己的责任来帮他们永久的度过难关。其他北约成员应该认真考虑承担责任了。

-------------译者：kfab-审核者：罗罗纳多索隆------------

JRailling 10 hours ago
"Tanks are few and far between now in NATO countries, the report said. Germany’s arsenal of about 2,200 main battle tanks in the Cold War has declined to roughly 250. Britain, meanwhile, is planning on pulling out its last brigade headquarters left on the continent."

 现在北约国家的坦克很少并且部署分散,有报道说德国的主战坦克从冷战时的大约2200辆下降到只有大约250辆左右.与此同时,英国打算从欧洲大陆撤离最后一个旅指挥部.

If the other members of NATO aren't willing to pay to keep their freedom, why should we? Is the independence of Germany more important to Americans than it is to Germans? I guess the new mantra in Berlin is "We will fight to the last American!"

 如果其他北约成员国不愿意为他们的自由买单,我们又为什么要为之付钱呢?德国的独立自主性是对美国人还是对德国人更重要呢?我想柏林的新口号是"我们会战斗到最后一个美国人!"
 
MICHAEL 12 hours ago
a few tactical nukes would take care of any advancing Russian forces. and I do believe that Russia will try to retake the Baltic states since there were no repercussions for taking Crimea. putin is definitely looking to take back the old soviet republic AND he's definitely looking to expand Russian influence into the middle east thru Syria and iran. and he will do it. who's to stop him? us? not likely. he realizes the us wont go to nuclear war over the Baltics or the middle east.

只要几颗战术核弹就能干掉俄罗斯的先头部队.而且我相信自从俄罗斯吞并克里米亚而没有为之付出代价,俄罗斯会设法重新夺回波罗的海国家.普京肯定期待着夺回苏维埃的领土,并且使俄罗斯的势力范围一路扩张到中东直到叙利亚,伊朗.而且普京肯定会真的这么干,谁会阻止他?美国吗?不见得,因为他知道美国不愿意在波罗的海或者中东打核战争.

-------------译者：叶良辰-审核者：罗罗纳多索隆------------

Jim Vaughan 10 hours ago
ARE WE FOOTING THE BILL AGAIN? I would like to know whether the administration is requiring those Baltic countries to foot the bill for these increased defense expenditures, and whether the administration is requiring our NATO "partners" in Western Europe?. And what about our "partners' " own national defense budgets…..i.e., are we requiring them to increase their budgets as a condition of our new expenditures. While we're at it, I would also like to know whether our Western European partners are reimbursing us for the expenses incurred in the process of keeping American troops in Europe. If not, we've gotta get tough with them: cough it up or we're pulling out….period, end of discussion,
jim vaughan Grass Vallely, Ca

又是我们买单？ 我想知道当局是否要求那些波罗的海国家、西欧北约 '"伙伴" 为提增的这些军费买单．"伙伴" 们的国防预算呢？还有啊，我们要求他们为这笔新帐增加预算了吗？
如果要求了，那么，我也想知道，美军驻欧，西欧“伙伴”有补偿我们的驻军开销吗？如果没有，那就硬硬地： 要不他们出血，要不我们闪人！ 没有然后了．

-------------译者：叶良辰-审核者：罗罗纳多索隆------------

Mark 10 hours ago 
I really hate these simplistic moronic articles which are straight out of the 1950s "Red Scare" playbook!!..Why on earth would Putin invade the Baltics for??..this silly notion that if it wasnt for NATO Russian tanks would be charging the Baltics, Berlin, Paris and God knows what else needs to stop!! What would Russia gain by that??...more territory??..Russia is already the largest land mass on earth!!...you think they need more space?? These stories are such drivel.

 我真的讨厌这种文章，直接就是上世纪５０年代“红色恐怖”的剧本，简单、低级。普丁为了啥要入侵波罗的海？ 愚蠢的想法就是：如果没有北约，俄罗斯的坦克会碾压
波罗的海、柏林、巴黎......鬼才知道还有别的什么地方！    请问要是这么做，俄罗斯得到什么？是领土吗？ 俄罗斯的领土已经是地球上最大了，你觉得他们需要更多空间？
鬼扯！

tomcat 10 hours ago
What "stuck in the Cold War" Rand Corporation failed to provide is any reason to think that the Russians would see anything to gain by invading Europe. We can play the "Putin is Crazy" game, but that dog won't hunt.
It may be that Russia could take some territory, but they cannot hold it. Europe and America may be intially unable to resist, but with a combined economic strength of $40 TRILLION, against Russia's $2 Trillion, the outcome is clear.
Russians know this, and Putin is neither crazy nor stupid.

俄罗斯入侵欧洲能得到什么？“陷入冷战”的兰德公司没能告诉我们任何理由，我们可以玩“疯子普丁”的游戏，但游戏可不是现实。
也许俄罗斯能得到领土，即使得到也守不住啊，欧美一开始可能被打蒙，但一个综合经济实力是40万亿美元的欧美对上2万亿俄罗斯，结局已注定。
俄罗斯也明白这点，普丁又不是疯子或傻子。

-------------译者：罗罗纳多索隆-审核者：罗罗纳多索隆------------

ChrisR 9 hours ago
The first step should be to hold every country to the 2% of GDP number and give them a timeline of 2 or 3 years to bring it up and if they can't they get kicked out.
There is something this article doesn't count on and that's american anger. If Russia were to roll over those three countries and kill thousands of american troops in the process, there will be a massive 28 nation conventional counter strike to push them out (NOT to invade traditional Russian territory, that's how you start a nuclear war).
But unfortunately the article is right, if Russia were to mount a 'Blitzkrieg' through those 3 nations, there is little we could do to stop it while it was happening.

第一步就是让每个国家的国防预算占据本国GDP的2%，并要求他们在2到3年时间内建立起自己的军队，如果做不到，就踢出去。
这篇文章没有谈及的是美国人的愤怒。如果俄罗斯入侵了这三个国家并在此过程中杀死数千名美国士兵，那么将有28个国家作出抵抗并将俄罗斯人驱离（但不是去侵略传统的俄罗斯领土，否则的话就要引发核战了）。
但遗憾的是，这篇文章是对的。如果俄罗斯在这三个国家发起闪电战，那么我们将无能为力。