警告：中国空军将在2030年前匹敌美国空军 [美国媒体]

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China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) will be able to match or exceed the United States Air Force in the number of fielded combat aircraft by 2030. Moreover, while American forces will still maintain an edge, the technological gap between the two great powers will have closed significantly between now and then.

到2030年，中国人民解放军空军（PLAAF）将在作战飞机的数量上匹敌或者超越美国空军。此外，虽然美国空军依然会领先一步，但两大超级大国现在和那时的技术差距将显着接近。

Right now, the PLAAF is slightly larger in terms of personnel, however the U.S. Air Force has a “couple thousand more aircraft,” Gen. Mark Welsh, Air Force chief-of-staff, told the House Appropriations Committee's subcommittee on defense on March 2. “At the rate they're building, the models they're fielding, by 2030 they will have fielded—they will have made up that 2,000 aircraft gap and they will be at least as big—if not bigger—than our air forces.”

现在，从人员数量上看，中国空军略大一点，但美国空军多出1、2千架飞机。美国空军总参谋长Gen. Mark Welsh在3月2日告诉众议院拨款委员会的国防委员会：“按照他们的建造和型号的部署速度，到2030年他们将会部署并补上那2000架飞机的缺口，他们将和我们的空军一样大，甚至更大。”

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But it's not just sheer numbers, the PLAAF is rapidly fielding newer and much more capable aircraft. Some of those are completely new warplanes like the stealthy Chengdu J-20 and Shenyang J-31, while at least three more are upgraded versions of existing fighters like the J-11D and J-16 among others.

然而不仅仅是数量，中国空军正在快速部署新型的和更加强大的飞机。它们中的一些是全新的战机，比如成都J20和沈阳J-31，,剩下的型号中，至少还有另外3种是现有战机的升级版本，比如J-11D和J-16。

Moreover, China continues to import advanced Russian-made fighters including the fearsome Sukhoi Su-35S Flanker-E.

此外，中国继续进口俄制先进战机，包括令人敬畏的苏霍伊SU-35S 侧卫-E型。

“We are not keeping up with that kind of technology development,” Welsh said. “We are still in a position of—we will have the best technology in the battlespace especially if we can continue with our current big three modernization programs.”

“而我们没有跟上这样的技术发展”，威尔斯说。“我们现在的心态是——我们拥有最好的军事技术，特别是如果我们能将我们目前的三大现代化计划继续下去的话。”

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Those modernization programs are the Boeing KC-46 tanker, Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and the Northrop Grumman B-21 Long Range Strike Bomber. However, even then America's technological edge will not be the vast gulf the nation has grown accustomed to since the end of the Cold War.

那些现代化计划是波音KC-46加油机，洛马F-35联合攻击战斗机和诺格B-21远程打击轰炸机（LRSB）。 然而，即便那时，美国也将不会拥有从冷战结束以来这个国家逐渐变得习以为常的那么巨大差异的技术优势。

“[China] will have a lot of technology that's better than the stuff we've had before,” Welsh said. “And the Russians are doing the same thing.”

“（中国）将拥有很多比我们已经拥有的更好的技术，”Welsh说，“并且俄国人在做同样的事情。”

Unlike the Chinese, the Russians are much more focused on modernizing their nuclear forces. “They're demonstrating capabilities that they haven't demonstrated to us before—cruise missiles, some of their new aircraft are dropping weapons for the first time in conflict,” Welsh said. “We're able to watch and see how this is working.”

与中国人不同，俄国人更加专注于现代化他们的核力量。“他们在展示他们之前从未向我们展示过的能力--巡航导弹，而他们的新飞机也在冲突中首次投掷武器”，Welsh说，“我们可以观察并看到它是如何工作的”。


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Eagle
By 2030, china would have long been bankrupt. They won't have air power.

到2030年， 中国早就破产了。他们将不会有空军。 

A Chinese
By 2030, USA will have long been broken up into 6 pieces as forecast by a Russian scientist, there is no USAF for China to catch.

到2030年，美国早就分裂成6块了，这是俄国科学家预测过的，中国要追赶的美国空军就不存在了。

Intul i5
China should throw some food stamps.
Buy out Boeing and LM.

中国应该扔给美国一大堆食品券，把波音和洛马的产权全部买断下来。（译者按：食品券是美帝政府给赤贫阶层发放的可以在超市领取食物的凭证，层主在讽刺美帝要破产了）
 
Temujin
Boeing and Lockheed Martin are things not for sale, china is better sticking to its own habits (stealing and hacking)

 波音和洛马是非卖品，中国还是坚持其固有习惯（偷窃和黑客）比较好。

Eagle
Which one of the 6 pieces will your children be living in. I'll have them deported too. It's china that's most likely to break apart by 2030.

 你的孩子住在6块中的哪一块？ 我会把他们驱逐出境的。 中国才最有可能在2030年被分裂。

Lord Lemur
I think it will be 3 pieces. A north eastern US, Texas, and the rest of the South. I really can't see the Union continuing past 2050.

我认为将会有3块。 东北美，德克萨斯，和剩下的南方。 我真的看不出联邦能维持到2050年的可能。 

Eagle
I think it's going to break into little lemur kingdoms each led by a miniature lemur that speaks french.

我认为它将分裂成数个小狐猴王国，每个都被说法语的小型狐猴所领导。（译者按：lemur 狐猴 是讽刺楼下的一个ID。）

Lord Lemur
you evidence the striking combination of denial and bias Soviet elites did during the eighties

 你活脱脱的证明了苏联精英在1980年代所做的否认现实和偏见的惊人的组合。

Eagle
How about the denial of chinese and russian autocrats in 2016?

在2016年否认中国和俄国独裁者又如何呢？

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Lord Lemur
they have a certain nationalistic amnesia but none approaching the scale of hubris of the Washington Consensus.

他们有一定程度的国家失忆症但没有一个能接近华盛顿共识的傲慢的程度。

Eagle
True about DC, but the ccp and putin are denial champions.

 关于华盛顿共识说得对，但中共和普京是否认冠军。

Intul i5
By 2030 the US may no longer exist.
China has nothing to worry about.

 到2030年美国或许就不存在了。
 中国没什么可担心的。

WHOHE
Other way around, numb nuts.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2z_g6O...
Not only that but they are running out of clean water and china is literally destroying their environment.

 正好说反了，傻瓜们。
链接。。。
不止那样，而且他们还用光了干净的水资源，并且中国正在实实在在的毁灭他们的环境。

Eagle
LOL! It's the other way around. When the ccp collapses who knows what will happen to china.

笑尿！ 正好说反。 当中共崩溃时中国将会发生什么？ （译者按：这位是章家敦粉儿。）

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shiva the destroyer
its hard to believe tho
US AF doesn't have just *couple of* thousand aircrafts more ...but rather atleast 10k aircrats more than PLA AF
Besides j-31 uses 4th gen engines and I guess so will j-20 for quite some time
This is a worthless article!

 但那难以置信。
 美国空军不是仅仅多“一两千”飞机，而是比中国空军至少多一万架飞机。
 另外，J-31使用的是第四代发动机，并且我猜测J-20在相当长一段时间内也是如此。（译者按：这货是个军迷，知道天朝现在用的是俄国发动机。）
 这文章毫无价值。

A Chinese
USAF has two choices to make, either continue to let its technology gap to erode due to inefficient use of fund and small pool of talent or outsource the R&D to China to maintain the technology gap even with shrinking of available funds.
It is your choice to make USA.

 美国空军有两种选择，或者继续让它的技术优势由于资金使用的低效率和人才库萎缩而被蚕食，或者即使发生可用的资金萎缩，也把研发外包给中国来维持技术优势。
 选哪个你看着办吧，美国。

Just here to comment
Your description of a scenario and choices to make is worse than Dave Majumdar writing about these top 5 weapons of war articles.

你的场景描述和选择言论比Dave Majumdar 写的军事文章里的5强武器还烂。

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Eagle
china has 2 choices to make, either comply by international laws and stop stealing islands or face a sever decline that will bankrupt china.
It's your choice china.

 中国有两个选择，或者遵守国际法停止偷窃岛屿，或者面临严重的衰退并导致中国破产。（译者按：听口气像是越猴。）
 选哪个你看着办吧，中国。

cherrysan
What US should really worry about is an aerospace bomber, better than B21.No need to fly close to CONUS. Just being able to fly midway into the Pacific and unleash long range missiles towards Hawaii. Think of this as a potential Pearl Harbor in waiting.
"It was reported that the H-6K has a combat radius of 3 500 km. Long-range cruise missiles effectively extend the bombers range to about 4000-5 000 km. It is enough to reach, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Guam and even Hawaii, Alaska and Moscow form Chinas mainland. Without leaving air defense zone."
http://www.military-today.com/...

 美国需要真正担心的是一种空天轰炸机，比B21更牛逼。 不需要飞临美国本土。 仅仅能够飞到太平洋中部即可向夏威夷发射远程导弹。想想这可是潜在发生的珍珠港事件。
 “据报道轰六K拥有3500公里的作战半径。远程巡航导弹有效地把轰炸机的打击范围扩展到4000至5000公里。（译者按：长剑10射程是2500，加3500,等于6千公里）”
   这（打击半径）足够从中国大陆的防区内起飞，打击日本、马来西亚、菲律宾、越南、关岛甚至夏威夷、阿拉斯加和莫斯科。
   链接。。。

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Temujin
Junks like H-6K can easily take down by SA-2 never mind about facing with BUK-2M, S-300 MPU, Spyder, many western advanced anti-aircraft missiles. H-6K is only good in dealing with unarmed Tibetans!

 轰六K那种垃圾可以轻易被萨姆2（一种老式防空导弹）击落，更别提面对BUK-2M，S-300PMU，Spyder，等多种西方先进的防空导弹了。轰六K只能胜任轰炸手无寸铁的吐蕃人。 （译者按：这逼是个反华分子，起个ID名字叫铁木真，蒙古人？）

leroy
This funny article. The Chinese - 40 years behind American technology is going to pose a threat to superior 4th gen and U.S. stealth? Funny stuff!

可笑的文章。落后美国科技40年的中国人将会对美国超牛逼的4代隐形战机构成威胁？ 太搞笑了。
 
xjp1953
As long as CCTV needs to illustrate its news reporting the glorious acts of the Chinese Air Force using a footage stolen from the Hollywood movie "Top Gun", I guess there is no need to worry too much.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new...

只要CCTV在需要展示它的对中国空军的辉煌行动的新闻报道时用到了从好莱坞电影“壮志凌云”里偷来的片段，我猜那就没必要过于担心。
链接。。。 （译者按：CCAV简直是反贼集中营啊，怪不得习大大前一段亲自去督察了。另外，这逼很奇怪，起个ID叫习近平1953。）

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Springfire
Nothing wrong with that. Chinese even offer American pilots to fly with them:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/so...
A win-win for both Chinese and Americans.

那没啥不好的。 中国人甚至向美国飞行员提议结伴飞行：
链接。。。
中美双赢。
 
xjp1953
I just tell quietly that apparently you misunderstood the significance of the above report... Let me translate for you. CCTV wanted to make a report about how powerful the Chinese air force is, but in this report they were not able to manage to get a single video about any Chinese airplanes, so they just cut some seconds from a Hollywood movie.

我只是小声告诉你，显然你误解了上述报道的意义，让我给你翻译一下。 CCTV想做一个关于“中国空军多么强大”的报道，但是在这个报道里，他们不能设法获得关于中国战机的一点视频，于是他们只能从好莱坞电影里剪一段了事。
 
umesh2063
Next to impossible at least by 2030. Number of aircrafts US is is over 13000 as compared to closed to 3000 of China. that means China would need at least 700 aircrafts a year which is impossible. But yes, China may overtake US in Navy like number of Subs. there is not much difference. Overall ships of China is already more than US. But US Airforce is way ahead of China. And yes, if China or Russia comes up with something to neutralising the US supremacy, then things would be different.

2030年前几乎是不可能的。美国战机的数量超过13000，作为比较中国只有接近3000。那意味着中国（想追平）需要每年造700架飞机，那是不可能的。 但是确实，中国肯能在海军的潜艇数量上超过美国。 这区别不大。 总体上的舰船数量中国已经超过美国了。但美国空军领先中国太多了。 然而，是的，如果中国或者俄国搞出什么能抵消美国最高技术的新东西，那情形就将不一样了。

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Zhuubaajie
Everyone knows that a G2 of real equals is the only long term solution. Yet Americans have too much hubris, and are spoiled by the willingness of the Chinese to lend them money.
The math simply is against America. By 2035, the military budget of the two countries would be equal, and yet with PPP that in China buys at least twice as much (today it is more like 3 times).

所有人都知道只有存在一个势均力敌的G2才是远期的解决方案。然而美国人太狂妄自大了，并且被愿意借钱给他们的中国人惯坏了。
单从数字对比来看，对美国相当不利。到2035，两国的军费预算将相同，然而以购买力平价计算中国的实际购买力是两倍（今天的实际购买力是3倍）。

Springfire
Unlikely and there is no need to do so. As long as Chinese air force can make it more powerful than US air force in Asia, that is good enough. Unlike US, Chinese do not have a whole world to police.

不太可能并且没必要这样做。只要中国空军比美国空军在亚洲的力量更强大，就足够好了。不像美国，中国人不是世界警察。

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Lord Lemur
Extracts from Garet Garrett's 1952 Essay 'Rise of Empire'

摘自Garet Garrett's 1952年的文章“帝国的崛起”

"When people say we have lost China or that if we lose Europe it will be a disaster, what do they mean? How could we lose China or Europe, since they never belonged to us? What they mean is that we have lost or may lose a following of dependent people who act as an outer guard...A time comes when the guard itself, that is, your system of satellites, is a source of fear...Fear of standing alone. Fear of world opinion, since we must have it on our side. The fear which is inseparable from the fact—or from a conviction of the fact—that security is no longer in our own hands...If security is your treasure and you bury a part of it in the garden of a friend you have given hostage to friendship.

“当人们谈论‘我们失去了中国’或者‘如果我们失去欧洲那将是灾难’，他们想表达什么？既然他们从来就没有属于过我们，我们怎么能够‘失去中国或者欧洲’？ 他们想表达的是我们失去了或者可能失去一个处于从属地位的、作为外围防护的人的追随。。。一个时代来临了，护卫自身，或者是，你的卫星国体系，成为了恐惧的源头。。。恐惧孤立无援。对世界舆论的恐惧，因为我们必须让他在我们一边。这恐惧与事实，或者是信念中的事实，无法分割，即，安全不再掌握在我们自己手中。。。如果安全是你的珍宝而你把它的一部分埋在了你朋友的花园里，你就为友谊附带了抵押品。”

Fear is felt and spread by the Department of Defense in the Pentagon. In part, the spreading of it is purposeful. Faced with what seem to be enormous armed forces aimed against us, we can scarcely expect the Department of Defense to do other than keep the people in a state of fear so that they will be prepared without limit to furnish men and munitions.

恐惧被五角大楼里的国防部感觉并散播。 某种程度上，它的散播是有目的的。面对着看上去海量的瞄准我们的武装力量，除了让国民恐惧以便让他们会准备好提供无限的兵员和军火，我们简直没法期待国防部去做别的。

Fear at last assumes the phase of a patriotic obsession [for examples consider the psychology of Tdog and eagle]. It is stronger than any political party. Any candidate for office who trifles with its basic conviction will be scourged. The basic conviction is simple. We cannot stand alone. A capitalistic economy, though it possesses half the industrial power of the whole world, cannot defend its own hemisphere. It may be able to save the world; alone it cannot save itself."

恐惧最终呈现为爱国主义情结（举个栗子，想想狗和鹰的心理学）。它比任何政党的力量都强大。任何一个轻视其基本信念的长官候选人都将会被鞭笞。基本信念很简单。我们不能孤立无援。 一个资本主义经济，虽然它拥有全世界一半的工业力量，也无法保卫它自己的半球。它可能有能力拯救世界，但孤立的话它无法拯救自己。
（译者按：我去年买了个表，翻这段简直亏血本了。）

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Lord Lemur
The US has more than enough air power to defend US territory. The real fear impelling the sentiment behind this article is a declining capacity to enforce the US Empire.

美国拥有的空中力量远远超过保卫美国本土。这篇文章所透露出来的真正恐惧是美国衰弱无法继续实施自己的帝国统治。

TDog
When the F-35 gets fully deployed, expect that margin to narrow. ALIS will be telling pilots to eject because they're on fire and then the ejection process will cripple or kill them...

 当F-35被全面部署时，期待那个差距会缩小吧。 ALIS 将会告知飞行员弹射因为他们被击中然后弹射过程将被卡住或导致死亡。。。（译者按：这货YY能力强大。）

Just here to comment
2,000 aircraft within 14 years from now? That's a bit far fetched.

 从现在开始14年共2000架飞机？ 那有点不靠谱。

TDog
Agreed. That would mean over 140 aircraft per month for the next 14 years.
Sounds like someone is trying to get China to spend itself into oblivion like the Soviets. The problem with that is I don't think China is biting. The J-11, for example, only has roughly 250 built and it's been around for 18 years. China tends to build what it wants, not what other people expect.

同意。 那意味着在接下来的14年，每年140架。
听起来某些人想试着让中国像苏联一样花光到分文不剩。 问题是我不认为中国会咬钩。 举个栗子，J-11在18年左右的时间里仅仅造了大约250架。 中国倾向于造自己需要的，而不是别人期待的。