在台湾问题上中国需要考虑一下“芬兰选择” [美国媒体]

-------------译者：long123km-审核者：duangduang------------



After nearly eight years of merciful quiescence, the Taiwan issue threatens again to become a source of dangerous tension. The landslide victory of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in last month's elections underscored that Beijing's strategy of trying to foster sentiment in favor of political reunification by first expanding economic ties between the mainland and Taiwan had failed spectacularly. Although cross strait economic relations had grown exponentially during the eight-year administration of President Ma Ying-jeou and his Kuomintang party, sentiment on Taiwan in favor of political reunification, never robust, became even more anemic.

在历经近八年的平静后，台湾问题再次成为危险紧张局势的源头。在上个月的选举当中，民进党取得了压倒性的胜利，预示着北京通过加强两岸经济联系 ，从而使台湾人民在情感上支持政治统一的策略失败。尽管在马英九及其所属的国民党执政期间，两岸经济关系呈指数发展，但台湾人在情感上支持政治统一的立场不但没有加强，反而变的更加微弱。

-------------译者：long123km-审核者：duangduang------------

Understandably, Beijing does not want to see Taiwan used as a military client of another major power. It already confronted that nasty situation during the Cold War when Washington and Taipei were signatories to a mutual defense treaty. Aside from the affront to national pride (which is considerable), preventing a repetition is a major impediment to PRC officials even considering the option of recognizing Taiwan's independence.

可以理解，北京不想台湾成为美国的军事代理人。自二战美台签订了共同防御条约以来，中国就一直面对着这种尴尬的局面，除了民族自豪感被侵犯，防止同样的事情再次发生也是中国政府考虑台湾独立的主要阻碍。

Nevertheless, Chinese leaders should consider the previously unthinkable: accepting an independent Taiwan—albeit under very strict conditions. The model for such an option would be Finland during the Cold War. In marked contrast to Moscow's rigid, brutal control over its East European satellite empire, the Kremlin allowed Finland to run its own affairs—within definite limits.

尽管如此，中国领导人应该考虑之前未曾考虑的选项：即接受台湾独立——即使是在苛刻的条件下。相似的模式是冷战时的芬兰，那时的苏联对东欧卫星国实施了僵硬、野蛮的控制，相对的，克林姆林宫却允许芬兰在一定限度内处理自己的国家事务。

-------------译者：long123km-审核者：duangduang------------

Finland had a Western-style, fully democratic political system with multiple political parties and competitive elections. But Helsinki could not join a hostile alliance or allow foreign troops or bases to be stationed on its territory. It could not side with anti-Soviet powers in international disputes—or even vote with such countries on contentious matters in the United Nations. It was independence with a leash.

通过多党制和竞争性选举，芬兰实施了西方式的、完全民主化的政治体系，而且赫尔辛基未加入任何一个敌对阵营，同时也不容许他国在其领土上进驻军队或是建设军事基地。它既不倒苏也不偏美，维持了有限的独立。

-------------译者：long123km-审核者：duangduang------------

Could such a model work with Taiwan? It would, of course, require a painful concession on Beijing’s part: giving up the long-standing claim of sovereignty to territory that was indeed stolen from China through an act of aggression. And certainly it would require major safeguards. At a minimum, Chinese leaders would want written assurances from all relevant parties that Taipei would join no foreign alliances nor accept any military presence from the United States, Japan, or other countries. Indeed, it would be logical for the PRC to press for at least a limited military presence (say, one naval base) of its own on Taiwan to protect Chinese security interests and be certain that the island could never be used as a staging area for moves against the mainland.

这个模式能套用在台湾上吗？ 是可以的，当然，这要求北京方面做出痛苦的让步：放弃长期以来对台湾领土的主权声明，尽管这片领土确实是通过侵略行为从中国那里窃取而来的，当然同时也要求主要的安全保障。
最低限度的，中国可以要求有关各方写下保证书，保证台北不加入美国、日本和其他国家的国外联盟，也保证不让美国日本或者其他国家在台湾驻军。事实上，可接受中国在台湾有限的军事存在，比如说，一个海军基地，用来保护中国的安全利益，同时也用来确保台湾不会被当成集结地来攻击大陆。

-------------译者：long123km-审核者：duangduang------------

Almost no one would be entirely happy with such a proposal. Many Chinese mainlanders would not like giving up the claim of sovereignty to Taiwan. Some DPP partisans would not like official constraints on Taiwan’s independence. U.S. officials definitely would not like the prospect of a PRC military presence (even a limited one) on the island or the very concept of Taiwan as a PRC protectorate.

这个提议当然不会让各方都感到满意，很多大陆人可能不愿放弃对台湾的主权声明，一些民进党员也不会愿意在台湾独立上的一些官方限制，美国也不想看到中国在台湾的（即使是有限的）军事存在，也不想让台湾成为中国的受保护国。


-------------译者：long123km-审核者：duangduang------------

ailiya
Well yeah USA ! Fix Taiwan like you did Syria,Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Vietnam... success guaranteed, lots of weapons sold, US is a total winner! Keep your hands off Asia, because if someone is a trouble maker in this world it is USA, flaring up tensions all over the globe in greedy attempt of selling more guns, and taking over natural resources. Why don't you help Ukrainians...maybe they don't have enough of crude oil or gas...???
Does it feel good to destroy other countries peace sitting comfortable on your front porch?? Must be exciting.
You are TALKING ABOUT HUMAN RIGHTS, really funny! Whole world can see your human rights, those dead children you left there are perfect example.
Let Chinese and Taiwanese be, they don't need another war. Keep your Nobel prize hidden deep, as it lost it's appeal after you accepted it. Disgusting.

不错哟，美国！像解决叙利亚、伊拉克、利比亚、阿富汗。。。问题一样解决台湾问题，保证会成功，武器大卖，美国将成为最后的胜利者！
把你的狗爪子从亚洲挪开！如果这个世界还有一个麻烦制造者，他就是美国！源于销售更多武器，镬取更多自然资源的贪婪，美国在全球四处煽风点火，为什么你不去帮助乌克兰人。。。或许是他们没有充足的原油和天然气？？？
摧毁他国的和平对安坐的你来说会感到愉快？ 一定是会让你兴奋了。 你谈人权，这简直是笑话！全世界都看能看到你所谓的人权，你留下的孩子尸骸就是最好的明证。
放过中国和台湾人，他们不需要另一场战争。把你的诺贝尔和平奖收起来，自从你接受了它，诺贝尔和平奖就丧失了他的号召力，恶心！

 -------------译者：long123km-审核者：duangduang------------

Intranet
Did that work with the Soviets? Nope.

这种模式在苏联起作用了?没有！
 
Justanotherviewer
This is of course the middle way for a settlement of the issue, and it is the most reasonable one as well. Any geostrategy fool would notice the strategic location of Taiwan which is of course it's greatest curse. If Taiwan was located on the other side of the globe China could not had cared less of its sovereignty and alligence.
The critical issue here would be trust on both sides, which is quite lacking to say at the least especially between China and the US.
One cannot have one's cake and eat it. Likewise, Taiwan cannot be so naive as to expect to achieve independence and pursue a confrontational foreign policy against China

这当然是问题解决的中间路线，同时也是最合理的路线 。即使是地缘政治的蠢货也能察觉台湾的战略位置是最致命的，如果台湾坐落在地球的另一边，中国就不会太过在意台湾的主权和同盟。
主要的问题是双方缺乏互信，特别是在中美之间。
鱼与熊掌不能兼得，同样的，台湾不能天真到既想获得独立又想在外交政策上对抗中国。
 
Amos
Totally different issues here for Mainland with Taiwan Vs. Sovit with Finland. The author is a joke

大陆和台湾VS苏联和芬兰是全然不同的问题，作者就是个笑话。
 
-------------译者：long123km-审核者：duangduang------------

Jerry
Amos, No he proposed a possible but unlikely strategy out of a difficult situation, he said which would please neither side  

作者只是提出一个可能性，但不能解决这个困难的局势，作者已经说了，这个提议不会让各方都感到满意。
  
dfacts
In other words...mental masturbation about an unreachable solution.
 
换言之。。。这是意淫。因为不可能达成解决方案的
 
Tim Chng
Or, the Chinese government should just observe the UN Declaration of Human rights and support democracy in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and elsewhere in the world.

中国政府应该遵循联合国人权声明，并支持台湾，香港和其他地区的民主化。
 
Springfire
Yeah, like what US did to Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria.

对头，就像美国曾经在阿富汗、伊拉克、利比亚、叙利亚做过的一样。
 
Tim Chng
If the US fails at supporting the Universal declaration of Human Rights, why can't the Chinese government do better and show how humanistic it can be?

如果美国不支持联合国人权声明，为什么中国政府不向我们显示它在人权方面做的更好？
 
Springfire
The difference is, Americans think they are smarter than local people whereas Chinese think local people are as smart as outsiders.

不同的是，美国人认为他们比当地人聪明，而中国人认为当地人和外来者一样聪明。   

-------------译者：long123km-审核者：duangduang------------

Thomas Fung
Do Chinese believe that Filipinos and Vietnamese are smart? You must be reading some different commentary boards than I do.

中国人认为菲律宾人和越南人聪明？你该多读读关于智力方面的书 。 
 
Jerry
I am an American, & I don't think Filipinos or Vietnamese are very smart, or they would have better governments.

我是美国人，我不认为菲律宾人和越南人聪明否则他们会拥有更好的政府。

Eagle
I am an American and I don't think chinese nationals are very smart, or they would have a better govt. Chinese diaspora are very smart without the ccp yoke and brainwashing.

我是美国人，我不认为中国人非常聪明否则中国会拥有更好的政府。 
中国移民倒是非常聪明，因为他们没被共产党束缚和洗脑。

老三
Your talk is too far away from truth. The reverse is true: The Chinese think they are more than smarter, they are superior to anybody else; they are endowed with superior qualities by heaven to rule over all the world.

你简直是胡说八道，事情的真相是：中国人认为他们比任何人都聪明的多，他们是上帝的选民，是为了统治世界的