中国最大的恐惧：像苏联一样死去并被掩埋 [美国媒体]

 

-------------译者：old_altar-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



Twenty-five years ago, the mighty Soviet Union was finally thrown onto the ash heap of history—never to rise again. And yet, the fall of one of the most powerful empires in human history, we often forget, was never a sure thing. Indeed, looking back just ten years’ time, to 1981, very few people foresaw the demise of the USSR. In fact, many made predictions that it was America who was in for a rough patch in the years to come. Even a cursory survey of history from that era depicts an America still struggling to overcome a deeply ingrained malaise: the Soviets seemed on the march almost everywhere, the U.S. economy was in shambles, the nation was still reeling from the emotional scars of the Vietnam War as well as the resignation of a sitting president. The hits just kept on coming—a seemingly never-ending crisis, and what must have felt like a true “crisis of confidence.”

二十五年前，强大的苏联终于被扔进了历史的垃圾堆——而且再也不会死灰复燃了。然而我们常常忘记这个人类历史上最强大的帝国之一的倒塌从来不是一件确定的事。事实上，在苏联解体十年前，即1981年，几乎没人预见到苏联解体。大部分人都觉得是美国要在接下来的一段时间里经历困难。随便一份来自那个时代的粗略调查都显示美国正挣扎着解决根深蒂固的问题：苏联在所有的领域向美国发起挑战，而美国经济一片混乱，整个国家还在从越南战争的阴影和尼克松总统辞职的风波中走出来。冲击持续来临——一次看起来没有尽头的危机，而且是感觉上真正意义的“信任危机”。

-------------译者：old_altar-审核者：huiyuan------------

But here we are. The USSR is no more. The Warsaw Pact is gone. Gorbachev is doing Pizza Hut commercials. America clearly prevailed in one of the most spectacular geopolitical contests of our time—all without the burning embers of a nuclear fire that could have killed billions.

但是美国挺过来了。而苏联已经不复存在。华约成了过去。戈尔巴乔夫只能拍拍必胜客的广告。美国毫无疑问地从我们这个时代最壮观的政治竞争中取胜——这一切成就都是在没有爆发能够杀死亿万人的核战的情况下取得的。

And while American’s today might make light of the past Soviet threat and its subsequent rapid collapse, one nation and its leadership is still very much interested in the death of the Soviet Empire: The People’s Republic of China.

然而当今天的美国开始轻视过去苏联的威胁及其迅速的崩溃时，另一个国家和它的领导人仍然对苏联的死亡非常感兴趣：中华人民共和国。

-------------译者：huiyuan-审核者：duangduang------------

Indeed, one could make a compelling argument that Beijing’s leaders—certainly burning the midnight oil over the state of their economy and America’s pivot to Asia—when pressed, clearly fears ending up like the old Soviet state. In my travels throughout Asia in the last several years as well as at the sidelines of various conferences and gatherings it seems the Soviet collapse ends up being something Chinese officials make clear they will avoid. They fear the power they hold today could be swept away tomorrow—cast aside by corruption, overspending on the military, political paralysis, divisions in society and so on.

人们确实可以提出强有力的论点来证明北京领导人-他们肯定在为经济现状以及美国向亚太的战略东移绞尽脑汁-在追问之下，肯定承认他们害怕像前苏联那样的结局 但是，从我最近几年在亚洲各地旅行、参加各种会议、聚会所收集的信息表明，中国官员很清楚地意识到他们完全可以避免前苏联那样的结局。他们也害怕手中的权力将来可能会被剥夺-由于腐败、穷兵黩武、政治瘫痪、社会分裂等等.


-------------译者：Cier-审核者：duangduang------------

Elvis • 2 days ago
It's hard to predict the future, history has often surprised us. Approximately 600 years ago, the future seem to belong to China as the great Ming armadas went out and then China turned inward.
Go further back and while the Europeans were fighting a losing battle to keep the Crusader states in the Levant alive, the Chinese under the Song looked to be on the verge of the Industrial Revolution which due to a variety of reasons including the Mongol conquest did not happen.
Who would have thought centuries ago, that the British would supersede the Spanish as the global power. Likewise that Constantinople would repel the Arabs twice, or that the Franks would do their part in the west against the Moors. Not to mention the Athenians defeating the Persians at Salamis. We can go on and on.
I doubt that the People's Republic of China will fall, in fact I would say that odds are that China under the reign of the CCP will be one of the most important powers if not the most important power of the 21st century. Then again, most of us would say that the United States will not only continue to be a superpower but many of my fellow Americans are likewise convinced that this century will be an American century.

未来是难以预测的，历史的走向往往使我们感到惊讶。大约600年前，未来因大明舰队的开放性（远征），看起来似乎是属于中国的时代，然而中国却转向了自己的内部事务。
再继续往前回溯，当欧洲人在那场为了让十字军国家在地中海东部得以苟延残喘的战争中打了败仗的时候，宋朝已经出现了工业革命的萌芽，只是出于被蒙古征服等各种各样的原因而没有发展下去。
几百年前谁又会想到，英国将取代西班牙成为世界霸主。同样没人认为君士坦丁堡能两次击退阿拉伯人，或者法兰克人能够在摩尔人的西方与他们对抗。更不用说雅典人居然在萨拉米斯打败了波斯人。类似的例子还有很多。
我怀疑中华人民共和国是否会倒下，事实上，我会说，共产党统治下的中国将是二十一世纪最重要的力量、或者至少也是最重要的力量之一。正如我们中的大多数人都会说，美国不仅仅只是继续作为一个超级大国一样，许多美国同胞也同样坚信本世纪依然将是美国的世纪。

-------------译者：huiyuan-审核者：duangduang------------

Justanotherviewer  Elvis • 2 days ago
True lets, not forget that a mere 5 years ago, China's economy seems to be virtually unstoppable and many pundits were crooing about the China Century. Then when it stumbles, the pundits quickly start to sing another tune. Just as how people claimed that the US after the Afghan war was doomed as well.
Predicting what China will become in the next 10 years is impossible, 20 years ago if you floated the idea that China might become the worlds second largest economy, the world would had laughed, but yet here we are. One thing is for certain though, that is China will fundamentally reshape the global order as we know it, even if it does not supersedes the US.

确实，我们不要忘了仅仅5年前，中国经济看起来好像还是势不可挡的样子，而诸多评论家还在宣扬中国世纪。然后当中国经济下滑，这些人又赶忙开始转调，就像人们当初唱衰陷入阿富汗战争泥潭的美国一样。要预测10年后中国变成什么样子是不可能的，20年前，如果你会浮现出中国将变成第二大经济体的念头，都会遭到全世界的嘲笑，然而现在，它就变成了。不过，有一件事是肯定的，即使取代不了美国，中国也将会彻底重塑全球秩序。

-------------译者：宝璐-审核者：duangduang------------

Vector  Justanotherviewer • 2 days ago
That is how it is all the time. Each time an economy of a country stumbles it is the "great economic crash" that is upon us, media will rant USA will collapse or China will collapse or Russia will collapse.

事情总是这样子。每当一个国家的经济蹒跚而行时，这个“经济大灾变”就会出现，媒体嚷嚷着美国将崩溃或者中国会崩溃或者俄罗斯会崩溃。

I remember two years ago when the meme was "Russia will collapse in 3 months", then after that it was "China will collapse any moment, their stock market is imploding." But things rarely collapse, if anything they just slowly degrade.

我记得两年前的网络流行是“俄罗斯将在三个月内崩溃”，之后流行“中国将在任何时候崩溃，他们的股市正在爆炸。”然而并没有崩溃，就算有的在缓慢消褪。

Thought there is room for collapse, if there was some mass event of the wrong circumstances. All the major powers have large economic problems that could trigger a collapse.

但确实存在一些因为大规模事件而导致崩溃的情况。所有这些大国都存在可引发崩溃的重大经济问题。

Russia has the problem of oil and sanctions.

俄罗斯有石油和制裁问题。

China has the problem of all weird shadow-dealings its government has done to keep its economy afloat. Like just building giant empty towns.

中国有该国政府为浮夸经济而做的所有古怪的影子政策。比如兴建鬼城。

USA is dependent on the petrodollar and world reserve currency.

美国依赖于石油美元和（美元的）世界储备流通。

-------------译者：檀木梳子-审核者：duangduang------------

Serge Krieger  Elvis • 2 days ago
Excellent post. All predictions is BS. Nobody knows what the future holds. But, Russia and China have tendency to come back from the brink and US has yet to prove it can come back after bad reversal as she has not had one. It is only coming.

说得对。所有的预测都是胡扯。没有人知道未来会是什么样的。但是俄罗斯和中国都具备从危险边缘折返的能力，但是美国还没证明自己有这方面的能力，因为美国还没经历过糟糕的境况。
 
Karl Pershing  CCD • a day ago
Kissinger under Nixon made China into what it is today. Big mistake.

尼克松领导下的基辛格让中国成为了今天的中国。这是个大错误。
 
CCD  Karl Pershing • a day ago
I do not think it was a mistake to improve US relations with China. Deng Xiaoping reformed the economic system and that would have happened regardless. Perhaps without cooperation from the US (like most favored nation trading status) it would have been more difficult. However, it would have happened anyway. Other countries in the World and especially in Asia were going to trade with China no matter what the US did.

我不认为提高美国与中国的关系是个错误。无论如何，邓小平一定会改革中国经济体系。如果没有美国的合作（比如最惠国贸易地位），中国的经济改革会变得更困难——然而，改革依旧会发生。不论美国的态度怎样，世界上的其他国家，特别是亚洲国家一定会继续和中国进行贸易往来。

-------------译者：long123km-审核者：duangduang------------

Karl Pershing  CCD • a day ago
Yes but American manufacturing suffered because of it. Middle class jobs have left the US. It was the initiation of a national suicide.

是的，但美国的制造业因此受困，中产阶级的工作离开美国，这是一个国家自杀的开始。
 
CCD  Karl Pershing • a day ago
This is a view that is old and no longer true. For one thing only 16% of the economy is manufacturing based. Manufacturing is not the key to economic prosperity. Look at Apple computer for example. All Apple products are made in China by workers making a tiny fraction of what US employees make. Apple is profitable and employees Americans as highly skilled engineers and managers. Apple makes the lion's share of the profit, while Foxcon the Taiwanese manufacture makes a small fraction. Who has the better end of this deal. Having manufacturing of Apple products in the US would make them far more expensive. There would be fewer high skilled jobs available (for a new workforce which is mostly college educated) and American investors - including pension funds and not just rich fat cats - would lose out as well.
Americans have moved on and adapted. Our University education system and health care system attract people from all over the world that come to use these services. Because this is a service being used in the US a Saudi spending money on the US health system or a Chinese paying for tuition at an American University has no effect on the trade numbers. And by the way jobs in health care and higher education are well paying. Low profit margin low skill manufacturing has been replaced with higher skill, higher profit margin industries. Hardly a sob story.

这个观点过时了，而且也不正确。首先，制造业只构成经济的16%，制造业不是经济繁荣的关键，以苹果为例。所有的苹果产品在中国生产，那里的工人只做了美国雇员做的一小部分，苹果是有利可图的，它会雇佣美国人作为高技能的工程师和管理人员，苹果占了大部分利润而富士康只占了一小部分，谁会受益更大？苹果产品在美国制造只会让它更昂贵，一部分的高技能工作（给接受过高等教育的劳动力的）和美国投资人---包括养老基金和不仅是有钱的大亨---都会受到损失。
美国人需要不断向前和适应，我们的教育和医疗系统吸引全世界的人到美国使用这些服务，因为这些服务是在美国使用的。因此阿拉伯人在美国医疗系统上开销或是中国人支付的美国大学教育费用不会对贸易数据有任何影响，顺便提下，医疗和高等教育上的工作薪酬是很高的。低利润、低技能的制造业会被高技能、高利润的产业代替。所以这算不上是个悲伤的故事。

-------------译者：啊啊啊这不是我-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Vector  Elvis • 2 days ago
In truth, all China needs to do is wait, EU and USA PC elites are doing all they can to destroy their countries.

事实上，中国所有需要做的就是等待，欧盟和美国的PC精英们（键盘侠）竭尽所能破坏他们的国家。

Patrick  Vector • 2 days ago
What is that old saying from some wise Chinese man. "If you wait long enough on the bank of a river you will see the bodies of your enemy float by"

某个古代中国智者说什么来着：“如果你在河边等的足够长的时间，你将会看到你敌人尸体浮过来。”（这个可能是 子在川上曰 逝者如斯夫）
 
Eagle  Patrick • 4 hours ago
If you wait long enough on the bank of a river you will drown in the river. -a wiser old man

如果你在河边等的足够长的时间，你将会掉进河里 —— 一个睿智的老人说。
 
Timur  Elvis • 2 days ago
The Chinese is an avid reader of history: As soon as you declare that you are "exceptional" you are frozen in time and allowed other nations to catch on. But human beings are weak. We like to be on top. This lessons are learned again and again. Jesus taught us humility for a reason.

这部分翻译的不恰当。应为：中国人酷爱历史（意指中国人善于从历史中吸取经验教训）：一旦你宣称自己是‘’优异于”其他民族，你就会固步自封，就会被别的民族赶超。但是人是有弱点，都想成为老大。这些教训一再发生。耶稣教导人类谦卑是有道理的。

 -------------译者：long123km-审核者：duangduang------------
 
matimal  Timur • 2 days ago
..at least the histories they can get their hands on. Many books are banned in china or not available in Chinese.

至少是他们能插手的历史记录。在中国，很多书被禁，或者根本买不到中文版。
 
Jerry  Elvis • a day ago
Elvis, Very good post, its nice to have some "real history", that put things in their proper perspective, instead of a lot of ridiculous boasting & threatening based on ignorance.

Elvis ，好帖！ 有一些“真实的历史”， 这非常好，这样就能在更正确的角度看待它们，而不是荒谬的吹嘘和基于无知的威胁。
 
Morti Samuels  Elvis • 2 days ago
Well spoken Thank You for history is what we need to learn from. This country is in very bad shape and the times are now more complicated??? More complicated yet less life threatening? Man will continue to destroy man

说的好，这就是我们应该从历史中学习的。中国现在的情况非常糟糕，而现在的时代变得更加复杂了？时代越复杂生命受到的威胁会更少？人类会继续自我毁灭的。

 -------------译者：long123km-审核者：duangduang------------

Valkyrie  Elvis • 10 hours ago
Ranting of a Mexican guy living in the US and who has a fetish for 3rd world despotism. So priceless. It is very amusing in a free society where we find people like this dude.
The chances of CCP China is more than likely. It is inevitable. Dictatorships never last.

来自生活在美国的墨西哥佬的咆哮，而且他还迷恋第三世界的独裁。真是非常有趣。好笑的是在一个自由的社会里竟然有这种人的存在。
共产党的中国不可持续，它不可避免的会像昙花一样，转瞬即逝。

jim okay  Elvis • a day ago
The Chinese have learned from the Japanese that even China has achieved a marvelous economic miracle that no other countries even have succeeded before; that the Chinese are restructuring their economy again. This time they aim at an economy that depends on consumption services plus high tech exports. While America is everyday talking about fighting wars, the Chinese are quietly trying to restructure their economy. Who do you think will have the final laughs?

中国人一直在学习日本人，即使中国已经取得了其他国家从未取得过的经济奇迹。
中国再次调整他们的经济，这次他们把经济目标放在依靠消费服务加高科技出口上。
美国人每天在谈论战争，而中国人在静悄悄地调整他们的经济。
你认为谁会笑到最后？

-------------译者：long123km-审核者：duangduang------------

Eagle  jim okay • 4 hours ago
With massive chinese municipal debt and a slowing economy. The US is laughing right now. The last laugh will be made by a country that does not possess nuclear weapons.

中国拥有大量的地方债务和正在放缓的经济，所以美国现在就在笑。笑到最后的国家当然是没有拥有核武的那个。
 
I-RIGHT-I  Elvis • a day ago
Good job Elvis but all you're doing is repeating what has already happened then 'tardedly saying we can't predict the future. Yes we can. More war. Buckle up.

 干的好，Evis。但是你在重复已经发生的事情，然后说我们不能预测未来。我们当然能，系好安全带，我们需要发动更多的战争。

guest  Elvis • 2 days ago
I'm concerned about our debt and the continual borrowing.

我只关心我们的债务和持续举债。