中国开始看起来像19世纪的美国 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：newWindow-审核者：叶良辰------------


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China’s shift from super-charged economic growth to a more moderate pace has drawn plenty of comparisons, most often with Japan, which lost its economic dynamism as its population aged, asset bubbles burst and export prowess faded. Some China perma-bears even predict a Soviet Union-style unraveling.   

中国经济从超负荷的增长模式，转向更温和的增长，已经引发了大量的对比，尤其是和日本。后者在人口老龄化后，失去了经济增长动力，资产泡沫破灭，出口也黯然失色。有些长期对中国持负面观点的人甚至认为，这是苏联式转变的序幕。

But there’s another, less obvious historical model: late-19th century America. That’s right, the U.S. of the post Civil War-era, a period of rapid economic transformation fueled by massive investment, technological change and population migration to the cities. There were ups and downs, but over the sweep of history the U.S. grew to become the world’s biggest economy, a mantle China wants to capture in coming years.

但是还有另一个不那么显眼的历史模型：19世纪晚期的美国。是的，内战之后的美国，在大量投资的刺激下，经历了一断经济快速增长的时期，技术革新，城市化。其间有起有落，但是随着历史车轮的转动，美国成长为世界上最大的经济体。这也是未来若干年，中国希望达成的目标。

-------------译者：newWindow-审核者：叶良辰------------

"The rise of the U.S. in the 19th century is comparable, in its dominance and speed, relative to the rest of the world," said Stephen Jen, co-founder of SLJ Macro Partners LLP in London and a former International Monetary Fund economist. "Judging how the rise of China has thus far affected the rest of the world, the closest comparison could be the U.S. a century ago."

“美国在19世纪的崛起，在优势和速度上，是其他国家难以比拟的。“伦敦SLJ Macro Partners LLP对冲基金的联合创始人，前国际货币基金组织经济学家，Stephen Jen说，要判断中国崛起是怎样深远的影响了外部世界，最接近的例子，是一个世纪前的美国。


-------------译者：newWindow-审核者：叶良辰------------

paul p 4 hours ago
Don't forget the pollution, environmental damage and human exploitation that is fueling this growth.
The great factories of China are powered largely by electricity generated from coal. The coal cities are a mess with soot on the ground. It's unfit for human use. Rivers are unsuitable for wild life.
Let's not forget that peculiar institution. Many Companies have dorms for workers in order to meet production quotas where workers sleep. There are striking similarities to the contract system where planters offered housing, rations, plantation script and low pay.

不要忘了是污染，环境破坏，和人口爆炸促成了这样的地增长。
世界工厂中国是由燃煤发电厂所驱动的。煤矿城市的地上到处是煤灰，不是适合人类生存的地方，它的河流也不适合野生动物生存。
我们不要忘了他们特殊的制度。很多公司为工人提供住宿以达到产能。这和当年种植园的奴隶主提供住宿，生活必需品，种植技术以及低工资的行为有惊人的相似之处。

 -------------译者：叶良辰-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Jonathan 12 hours ago 
The article ignores dust bowl parallels of the 50's in China and the 20's in the US, the fact that 50% of the population in both countries were subsistence farming with the other 50% skilled and educated people living the cities- 40's in the US and now in China. China is also seeing a build up in the areas around big cities akin to the sub-urbanization in the 50's in the US. Differences include the personality cult of china's current leader and it's efforts to squash any dissent, real or imagined.

该文略掉了一点就是：50年代的中国和20年代的美国都是沙尘漫天飞。实际上，在40年代的美国和现在的中国，50%的人从事农业，受到教育和有技能的另外50%住在城市里。中国现在也在大城市周围进行大量建设，类似于50年代美国的郊区化。不同的是，中国是搞个人崇拜，崇拜现任领导人，镇压异议者，不管是真实存在的还是他们所想象出来的。

 -------------译者：newWindow-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Nathan 11 hours ago
There was no central bank to create financial balloons in late-19th century US while there is such a beast in early-21st century China (much like in late-20th century Japan). Governing policy is night and day different between late-19th century US and today's China, and the cultural differences are staggering. Add to that the fact that the US was still growing in essentially open territory (no slight to the Americans, but they didn't have an established industrial or military infrastructure equivalent to any first-world country today) where China's stuck with the territory it has. Aside from those... slight... differences, there might be some similarities...

在19世纪的美国,没有中央银行来制造金融泡沫,但是在21世纪的中国有这样一个畜牲(很像20世纪晚期的日本).日夜不停的管制措施也是19世纪美国和今天中国的不同之处, 并且文化差异是十分巨大的。此外，那时的美国土地还在不断扩张（不是轻视美国人，但是当时的美国还没能建立起能与今天第一世界国家相当的工业或者军事设施），而中国现在的领土已经固定下来。除了这些...轻微的...的差异,二者也许有一些共同点。
 
-------------译者：cycy009-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Aric 7 hours ago
The vast majority of China's people can hardly be considered middle-class, and even the 300 or so million who can be, have the wealth and standard of living that would be unacceptable for almost any American. China NEEDS to keep growing at a least 7% per year just to keep its people happy with the CCP, but that is impossible. The CCP is a totalitarian, communist government, it needs its people to be content, if they become discontent the CCP will risk losing power and they can not tolerate that. Content people do NOT innovate, they are NOT ambitious, except maybe in party politics, and they are NOT consumers or people who take on much personal debt. THAT will keep China from growing much more because the world can not continue to pay ever more for China to make junk for us, they have to start doing more internally, the world just does not need anymore from them.

大多数中国人达不到中产的标准，就算其中三亿人算得上中产阶级，他们的财富和生活质量也是美国人所不能接受的，中国共产党需要保持每年七个点的增长来保证老百姓支持他们，但这几乎不可能，共产党是一个极权政府，他要让老板姓感到满足，如果老百姓感到不满意，中共就有失去权力的危险，这是中共无法忍受的，但满足的人是不会创新的，也没有野心，可能只在党派政治上有野心，而他们的购买力也不强。这将阻碍中国继续发展，因为世界不可能继续去购买中国制造的垃圾产品，他们需要拉动内需才行，这个世界已经无法再继续购买中国制造。

-------------译者：叶良辰-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

ls 9 hours ago
China's growth was so astronomical that people have a hard time understanding that a country where people starved 40 years ago is a global superpower today and holds the most foreign reserves in the world.
Yes, to some idiots it resembles 12 century Europe, but fact is, it owns our debt and if it keep goings this way, we'll meet in the middle somewhere and one day we'll have a cultural revolution and they'll bring us some democracy with tanks and bombs.

中国的壮大太快了，以至于人们很难理解一个40年前人民还挨饿的国家怎么现在就变成一个世界强国了呢，还拥有世界最多的外汇储备。
是的，对一些白痴来说，他们像12世纪的欧洲。但事实是，他们是我们的债权国，如果他们像这样继续发展下去，那我们就被甩下了。然后我们来一场文化大革命，然后他们用坦克和炮弹给我们送民主过来。

 -------------译者：叶良辰-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

D P 9 hours ago 
Now matter how & where China take its economy & it does not matter if its per capita GDP does match the US, it needs to do what it thinks best. Why heed advice of your competitor. A country is strong if it has self-determination.
No need to listen to the US or EU, otherwise you become an India. Everyone loves India because its economy supplements the US and EU at its own expense. India's British colonizers have taken self determination away from India and institutionalize pseudo-colonialism.

无论中国经济如何发展，也无论中国人均GDP能否跟上美国，这些都不重要，中国需要做自己认为对的事情。为什么要采取你的对手的意见？ 一个能自主的国家才是强大的国家。
不要听从看美国和欧盟，否则你就变成印度那样。所有人都喜欢印度，为什么？ 就是因为阿三牺牲自己，自动变成美国和欧盟的经济附庸。
英国殖民者取消印度的自主权，制度化对印度的变相殖民。

-------------译者：叶良辰-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Roger That 1 16 hours ago 
"The United States is now trying to claw back the lost advantages of its industrial sector," Xinhua said. The news service went on to quote a warning by Alexander Hamilton, a founding father of the U.S., that a nation’s independence and security is materially connected with the prosperity of manufacturers. We gave ours away to China because of greed. All western economies were triping over each other sending their manufacturing to China. Once one of the countries do it they all have to or your out of business. Contarry to the above article statement I don't see the U.S. clawing it's way back or attempting to claw its's way back in top the industrial sector. What i see is manufacturing likely moving from China to Vietnam.

美国现在正努力弥补自己所失去的工业优势，新华这样报道。新华社援引美国开国元勋汉密尔顿的警告称：一个国家的独立和安全，是跟制造业的繁荣实质相关的。因为我们的贪婪，我们把自己出卖给中国了。所有把制造业送给中国的西方经济体，现在都遇到麻烦了。一旦有一个经济体把制造业送给中国，出于商业上竞争，其他的就得跟着送。与以上文章相反，我没有看到美国想搬回制造业，或企图搬回制造业。我所看到的是，制造业可能会从中国移到越南。

-------------译者：叶良辰-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Skeptic 10 hours ago
"There were ups and downs, but over the sweep of history the U.S. grew to become the world’s biggest economy, a mantle China wants to capture in coming years."
China will have no trouble becoming the world's biggest economy, mainly due to its massive population; but, China will never surpass the U.S. in per capita GDP. That is, China will never become more productive than the U.S., per capita, unless China makes fundamental social changes.
The main reason is the U.S. is like the Amazon, everything is free to grow to its potential; while China is bureaucratically selective and micro-managed. For example, the sports sector, the U.S. is still more than 100 years ahead of China. As of 2016, there is no sports legend coming out of China yet. Moreover, in the U.S., everything is free to develop. That's not the same in China. Americans can browse everything out there on the Internet and catch on with whatever is the latest and the greatest. In China, they aren't even allowed access to youtube. So, whatever the rest of the world has, the Chinese are not catching on overnight, unless their micro-managers let them. That selective micro-management means China will always be behind the rest of the world.

“其间有起有落，但是随着历史车轮的转动，美国成长为世界上最大的经济体。这也是未来若干年，中国希望达成的目标。”。
中国毫无疑问会变成经济第一大，主要是由于它大量的人口数。但是，中国的人均gdp绝不会超过美国。中国的人均生产率是超不过美国的，除非中国进行根本性的社会变革。
一个主要原因是，美国就像亚马逊，所有事物都能发挥潜力自由成长。然而中国社会是官僚主义式的挑选和微局控制。例如，在体育领域，美国领先中国100年。即使到现在的2016年，中国也没能出一个体育传奇。而且，在美国，任何事情都能自由发展，在中国就不一样了。美国人能在网上浏览任何信息，跟踪到最好最新的信息。在中国，人们甚至不能上youtube。所以，世界别的地方有什么，中国人都不能及时了解。除非微局管理者允许。 这种先经过微局管理的筛选，意味着中国总是跟不上世界的步伐。

-------------译者：lapin-审核者：叶良辰------------

wholemole 15 hours ago 
If you start giving loans at 0 or 1 or 2% to average Joe in China it will be soon like 25th century. US is purely driven by a cycle Debt, write offs, and new Debt. Debt flows easily. Average person here has $25K debt! It is relatively easy to buy a Car here. Just look at the auto sales going thru the roof.

如果你把钱以0到2%的利息借给中国人，他们会发展得像25世纪一样。美国的发展是由无尽的借贷驱动的，还完旧债，又添新债，债务对他们来说简直就是家常便饭——平摊下来每一个美国人欠的钱都有25000美元！美国人买车也容易，看看美国的汽车销售火爆情况就知道了。

Imagine if you gave a easy loan of $10 or $25K to average Joe in China or India or any so called emerging nations ?

来想像一下，如果中国和印度等新兴国家每个人都能得到10000到25000的贷款，他们国家会发展成什么样子？
 
I.R. 15 hours ago
And London will be overrun by horse manure by 1940 due to the increase in horse traffic. An Economist 1890

1890年的时候，英国的马匹运输发展迅速，当时有还经济学家预言说，伦敦会在到1940年的时候被马粪淹没呢。