美国可以用核武器干些啥？ [美国媒体]

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Brad Roberts has written a maddening, but important new book: The Case for U.S. Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century.

布拉德罗伯茨完成了一本看起来疯狂，但却重要的新书：《在二十一世纪，美国如何使用核武器》

Nuclear and missile defense policy has rated about ten nanoseconds of airtime among the candidates pursuing the Oval Office. But, eventually, someone will win and be forced to abandon rhetorical ramblings for the reality of governing.

虽然在核武战略和导弹防御政策在各个总统候选人的竞选宣言中只出现了大约10纳秒，但无论是谁赢得选举，都将在现实的压力下放弃他们那些不切实际的政策和主张。

Crafting a realistic, effective strategic defense strategy will be a major responsibility of the next president. Roberts’s book makes a worthy contribution to understanding the conundrum confronting the next administration.

制定一个符合实际并且有效的战略防御策略将是下一任总统的主要责任。罗伯特的新书将有助于我们理解下届政府将面对的难题。

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The frustrating element of the book is its hollow argument that President Obama tried for eight years to be a good steward of America's nuclear and missile defense enterprise, crafting a reasonable third way between the Curtis LeMay caucus and a tribe of vegetarian hippies working to ban the bomb. But if Mr. Obama's intent was to preserve a responsible strategic deterrent while working assiduously to diminish and eliminate nuclear weapons (the so-called balanced approach), he failed miserably—something even Roberts admits.

这本书为奥巴马总统辩护的的空洞说词令人反感。在书中，执政8年的总统奥巴马成为了美国核武和导弹防御计划的好管家，并在主张核战略的强硬鹰派（译者按：原文中Curtis LeMay是被称作“冷战之鹰”的柯蒂斯·李梅，信奉战略轰炸思想）和希望禁绝所有炸弹的嬉皮士圣母之间找到了完美的中间路线。（但事实不尽如人意），虽然奥巴马极力想在在大规模消减核武器的同时，保持相当程度的战略威慑（所谓两头兼顾的平衡策略），他仍然彻底的失败了。这点连罗伯特都不得不承认。

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But forget about the Obama apologia. Far more important is the book’s argument that the U.S. nuclear arsenal desperately needs modernization. "Over the next two decades," Roberts warns, "the entire remaining inventory will have to be modernized in some way. The triad of delivery systems will have to be modernized or replaced." The arsenal is such dire straits, he concludes, that the next president will have to "modernize capabilities, capacities, and core competencies."

不过撇开为奥巴马辩护的那部分，本书的最有价值最重要的论点是：美国的核武库真的需要一次彻底的现代化了。”在未来的20年中“，罗伯特在书中警告说，”所有库存的核武器都必需通过必要的方式进行现代化更新。而三位一体打击系统也必须更新或进行换装。”罗伯特的结论是，美国的核武库已经陷入了困境，下一任总统必须更新现有核弹、增加核武数量以及促进（整个核战略的）核心竞争力。

-------------译者：菜鸟饭-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Roberts tries to absolve President Obama for allowing this to happen by blaming it on the lack of bipartisan support for the president's programs. That's a sad half-truth. Certainly his programs received little bipartisan support. But, then again, the administration invested zero political capital in pressing for updating the nation's nuclear arsenal. From the start, Mr. Obama showed that he favored a minimalist approach to missile defense.

罗伯特试图通过怪罪两党不支持总统计划来宣告欧巴马总统允许这一情况发生并没错。 这只是悲哀的一部分事实。确实他的计划只收到了很少的两党支持。但是，还有当局没投入政治资本来推动国家核导弹升级。从一开始奥巴马就表现出他偏向尽可能少的发展导弹防御的意图。

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Other abject failures are swept under the carpet as well. Roberts concedes that the world's foremost nuclear troublemakers are still causing trouble, despite diplomatic overtures, resets and pivots. As he notes: "North Korea is proceeding to develop and deploy nuclear forces. . . . Nuclear relations with China have not improved. . . . Relations with Russia have taken a radical turn for the worse. . . ." Nor is Roberts too sanguine about how things will work out with Iran.

另外一些不幸的失败也被被掩盖。罗伯特承认世界最主要的核问题制造者们仍旧在制造麻烦，尽管有多次外交提议，重新谈判和更改外交轴心。 像他所提到的：“北韩正在开发和部署核力量。。。。。。与中国的核关系并没有改善。。。。。。和俄罗斯的关系向更坏的方向急速转变。。。。。。。"罗伯特对于和伊朗将来的合作结果也并不是很乐观


-------------译者：菜鸟饭-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Tanner Wade • 14 minutes ago
After WW II the USA was over half of the world's GDP and the only country with nuclear weapons until the USSR tested a device in 1949. Instead of taking over the world like the USA easily could have, it used it's power to establish a stable world order and peace which still forms the foundation of the modern world.

二战以后美国拥有世界一半的GDP并且是唯一拥有核武器的国家，一直到苏联于1949年进行核试验。美国用它的力量来建立一个稳定和平的世界秩序（依然是当今世界的基础）而不是选择占领本可以轻而易举的拿下的全世界。

It kept the USSR from expanding it's empire, conquering Western Europe, and it kept Asian countries from being over-run by Chinese communists.

阻止了苏联的扩张和西欧的征服，也让亚洲国家免于被中国共产主义者侵略。

The USA has SLBM's with hard-target-kill capability, which can reach any target within 15-20 minutes. That is a very solid first strike capability. Then, if there is anything that survives, it has ballistic missile defenses. Russia's early warning system was so old and broken down that it didn't even become effective again until a few years ago since it's collapse ended the cold-war.

美国拥有的海基导弹具备顽固目标击杀能力，该能力可以在15到20分钟内击中任意目标。这是稳定的第一次打击能力。然后，如果有任何目标幸存，它还具有弹道导弹防御。俄罗斯的初期预警系统自从冷战结束以后就变得太老旧破败甚至并不再有效，直到最近几年才好转。

The USA is the only thing today keeping China from invading Taiwan and other countries, and knows if it invaded Taiwan it would be so absolutely smashed into submission by the US.

美国是当今唯一能够阻止中国入侵台湾和其他的国家的存在，并且知道如果中国入侵台湾一定会被美国打到投降。

The USA is not perfect. It has made plenty of mistakes, which it's media is free to report on. But, it is still the country contributing the most to human progress in the spread of human rights, freedom, and democracy.

美国并不完美。它做出过许多错误的决定，这些媒体都可以自由报道。 但是美国在传播人权，自由和民主的人类进步过程中依旧是做出最多贡献的国家。

Imagine the bloodshed if no one was there to stop Russia, the Chinese communists, or islamic fundamentalists.
I think the civilized free world wants the USA to continue it's contribution until those with imperial dreams subside and give up ideas of expanding their empire.

想象一下如果没有人阻止俄罗斯，中国共产党或者伊斯兰原教旨义者而造成的流血事件。我相信民主自由世界想要美国继续其贡献直到那些有着帝国主义梦的国家衰弱或者放弃扩张他们领土的想法。

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folktruther • 6 hours ago
This is, far and away, the biggest and most dangerous issue in this election, ignored by the candidates in the usual way. US foreign policy is strongly influenced in both parties by neolibcons who, to put it bluntly, are power mad, and are willing to initiate nuclear war. They make the US power the most dangerous power to the earth's people on our small planet.

这是选举中最最重大和最最危险的问题，被候选人们像往常一样忽略掉了。两党所制定的美国外交政策都受到了新自由保守主义者的强烈影响，这些人是疯狂的权力者，甚至愿意发起核战争。他们使得美国的力量变成对我们这个渺小星球上的人们来说最危险的力量。

Obama has projected that we should spend a trillion dollars in the coming years to make nuclear weapons more usable. The USA, under oligarchical Free Enterprise, cannot compete with state-market systems economically, so emphasizes a military policy. As China and other powers increase their economic power relative to US power, the military option grows increasingly tempting.

奥巴马有计划让我们在未来的几年中花费一万亿来使得核武器更有用。寡头自由企业制度下的美国在经济上无法和国家-市场经济体系的国家对抗，所以美国看重军事政策。随着中国和其他国家的经济实力渐渐赶上美国时，对于美国来说军事选项就越发的具有吸引力。

Medium and small powers understand that the major defense against US aggression is nuclear weapons. Iraq was invaded not because it had nuclear weapons, but because it didn't. The government and media knew this and deliberately lied to the American people, as it does now, and will do in the future. As the US sinks deeper into reaction, the tendency to reach for a nuclear response will increase, and articles like this one will justify it.

中型和小型国家明白对抗美国欺压的主要防御手段就是核武器。伊拉克被入侵不是因为曾经拥有核武器而是因为他没有核武器。美国政府和媒体知道这一真相而刻意欺瞒美国人民，就和现在做的一样，而且将来也会做。当美国难以自拔的越来越频繁使用此策略，中小国家使用核武器应对的趋势就会增加，而像这类型的文章将继续为其辩解。

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delta 5297 • 5 hours ago
So, what...was President Obama supposed to lobby publicly for nuclear modernization? That's exactly a salient issue with voters anywhere. And besides, it's not like Lyndon Johnson or Gerald Ford or even Ronald Reagan campaigned heavily on nuclear weapons either, probably because it wasn't a salient issue back then either. If the president needs to "spend political capital" to get nuclear modernization, doesn't that suggest that there was a lack of political will to do so within Congress and the public in the first place?

所以奥巴马总统应该为了核武器现代化升级进行公开游说？ 这对全世界的选民来说都是个突出的议题。而且除此之外， 也不像林顿约翰逊或者杰拉尔德·福特亦或者罗纳德·里根那样竞选严重依赖核武器， 大概是因为当时该议题并不突出。如果总统需要花费政治资产来进行核武器现代化升级，不就意味着连议会和公众都缺乏这样做的政治意愿吗？

What do you expect to be done anyway? The replacement ballistic missile submarine is in the works, and even that is going to be a challenge since the Navy doesn't have the money for it in its regular budget. The new submarine is the most important part of the triad, and second priority I would think should go to the bombers. I would say it's too soon to call for discarding any leg of the triad, but with scarce resources the land-based ICBMs should probably get third priority (and I've heard their service life can be extended for a while anyway).

你到底期望能做到什么？ 美国正在对弹道导弹核潜艇进行更新换代，而且甚至这将对于没有足够经费满足日常开支的海军来说是一个挑战。新的潜水艇对于三位一体的核打击力量来说至关重要，其次重要的我认为应该是轰炸机。我认为现在呼吁取消任何三位中的某一位还太早，但是由于资源稀缺，路基核打击能力应该放在第三位（而且我听说他们的服役期限也可以再延长一些）。

Nuclear poewrs ganging up on America? How does that work when Russia and America have the preponderance of nuclear weapons, with China at a distant third? Russia and China's nukes combined aren't going to overwhelm America's. And missile defense holding off a full-scale nuclear attack is something I have never heard of anywhere...and is contingent on the interceptor missiles being able to reliably destroy incoming warheads, which to my knowledge is not the case.

核力量联合起来反对美国？当美国和俄罗斯拥有绝对的数量优势而中国是远远落后的第三名时，这样做有什么用呢？俄罗斯和中国的核武器总和并不能压倒美国。而且导弹防御可以全面抵挡核打击的说法我从没在任何地方听说过。。。。。。这取决于拦截导弹能否摧毁来袭的核弹头，而据我所知这是不可能的。

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a new hope • 6 hours ago
as far as strengthening of the US nuclear enterprise is concerned, the GOP right now could contradict President Obama and block further deactivation of Trident launch tubes and denuclearization of B-52s and returning 50 Minuteman ICBMs to their silos. New Start was a bad treaty and it is shameful that the GOP is not undoing it which they could. Its implementation is not due until 2018, why the rush, GOP? 
In addition in 2010 President Obama 200 naval tactical nuclear tomahawk missiles destroyed for no good reason whatsoever. This also does not seem to bother the GOP.
Right now they could propose building 2000 new naval tactical nuclear cruise missiles which could be stationed on our attack subs and destroyers. It would cost no more than 10 billion. The Russians are doing it, why cant' we?. One of their Kirov cruisers can take out all of our Eastcoast sub bases.
The new SM-3 IIA antiballistic missile with a range of 2000 miles also could be easily converted to a tactical nuclear surface attack missile using mods used for the SM-6.
As long as we not aggressively putting nuclear rearmament proposals on the table, we should not be surprised if in the near future a massive nuclear surprise attack will be launched against us. There unfortunately is no number one spot for the weak in this world.

就美国核企业的担忧加深而言，共和党现在可以抵制奥巴马，而且阻止更进一步裁撤三叉戟导弹和。
无核化B-52轰炸机，还有回库50枚民兵洲际导弹。（Ps 文章应该是想表达共和党想要在裁撤核武器的道路上走的更远而不是阻止）
美国与俄罗斯的新战略武器裁减条约是个糟糕的条约，耻辱的是本来共和党可以撕毁它却不作为。
条约的实施截止日期在2018年，共和党为什么这么急？
此外，在2010年的时候奥巴马总统没有任何理由的摧毁了200枚海军的战斧战术核导弹。共和党好像对此不屑一顾。
现在他们可以建议建造2000枚可以装载在我们攻击潜艇和战舰上的新的海军战术巡航核导弹。建造它们的花费不会超过100亿美金。俄罗斯在做，为什么我们不可以？
他们的一艘基洛夫级巡洋舰可以摧毁我们东海岸的所有潜艇基地。新的SM-3 IIA型拥有2000英里半径的反弹道导弹也可以使用SM-6的模式轻易转换成战术核面攻击导弹。
只要我们不积极主动地把核军备改良的提议放在明面上，我们就不应该为不久的将来可能会针对我们发动的大规模核意外打击而感到惊讶。
不幸的是在这个世界上，第一名不是给弱者的。

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AMERIKANS.ORG • 39 minutes ago
PERHAPS THE THING WE ALL MUST REALIZE, IS THAT PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS BEEN WORKING TO AID VLADIMIR PUTIN SINCE THE FIRST DAY HE CAME TO OFFICE, SO OUR NUCLEAR DETERRENT WOULD BE INEFFECTIVE. THIS WAS HIS MOST IMPORTANT ROLE THAT WAS TASKED TO HIM BY THE FORMER KGB AGENT WHEN HE MORE THAN LIKELY RECRUITED OBAMA AROUND 1982. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OBVIOUS TO MOST AMERICANS, MANY STILL CANNOT COMPREHEND IT.

也许我们都必须意识到，奥巴马总统自上任以来就一直致力于帮助普京，因此，我们的核威慑将无效。这是他最重要的一重身份，奥巴马很有可能在1982年左右就被前克格勃特工给招募了。尽管这对于大部分美国人来说是显而易见的，但仍有很多人并不明白。（细思极恐啊）

We are very close to the end of Obama's term in office. Do you think he is going to surrender the keys to the White House to our next elected President? Do you think that he will even allow America to have an election to decide on his replacement for 2017. WE DO NOT.
We believe President Obama and Putin have conspired to create an event this fall, that will enable Obama to Declare Martial Law so he can Suspend Elections and prevent a successor President from taking office.
Won't Hillary and Donald be surprised.

我们距离奥巴马任期结束很近了。你认为他会乖乖把白宫的钥匙交给下一任当选的总统吗？你认为他会允许美国进行一个使他2017年下台的竞选吗？我们当然不这么认为。
我们相信奥巴马和普京合谋制造了今年秋天的事件，这使得奥巴马有借口宣布戒严，这样他就可以暂停选举并防止总统继任者上台。
希拉里和唐纳德早就见怪不怪了。

-------------译者：布拉格鸽子蛋-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Frank Blangeard • 5 hours ago
Carafano feels that the other nuclear powers could gang up on us and therefore we need to be able to nuke them all at the same time. I think that he has a point. The United States has been doing its best to piss off Russia, China, and Pakistan all at the same time. So it is not unreasonable for them to get together for self defense. Maybe if the United States made a little less effort to piss off other nuclear powers that would be a big step towards improving national security.

 Carafano觉得其他几个核流氓国可能会联起手来对付我们，因此我们需要将他们一举核平。我认为他是有这个倾向的。阿米竭尽全力成功激怒了俄罗斯、中国和巴基斯坦，但这三个核流氓聚在一起进行自我防卫是非常不明智的，因为会被阿米一举核平（省得各个击破）。或许阿米在激怒其他核流氓的时候应该不要这么拼，这样她自己的国家安全会提升一大截。
 
folktruther  Frank Blangeard • 5 hours ago
other powers are going to get together and "gang up" on the US, Frank.? You've obviously had an attack of some kind, and I feel sorry for you.
​
其他核大国聚在一起联合对抗阿米吗？老兄你的攻击性实在是太明显了（找掐），默默为你点蜡。

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future • 37 minutes ago
Today, no nuclear competitor respects the United States.
"Respect?" Really? This is high-school stuff.
The US was the first state on the planet to obtain and use nuclear weapons. The fact that others did the same was and remains a reaction to the fact that the US has these weapons and refuses to make a "no first use" pledge. Even though that would be just words -- the US' refusal to mouth them is a clear threat.
Thanks to the climate of fear and possible annihilation created and fostered by the US, we have a world where India and Pakistan also squared off with nukes. The US could have prevented Israel from obtaining these weapons but chose not to.
Libya gave up its nuclear program, and was destroyed as a result.
The US could negotiate a nuclear stand-down if it wanted one. It chooses not to.
The threat of annihilation is growing, and unfortunately -- we will all die along with the lunatic -- who's actually on the same page as Kim Jong Un -- who wrote this article.

今天，已经没有任何一个核竞争对手尊重阿米。
“尊重？”真的吗？简直就是高中的幼稚把戏。
阿米是地球上第一个获得并使用核武器的国家（天堂中的爱因斯坦欲哭无泪：都是我的锅我的锅~~）。事实上，其他国家纷纷效仿研制核武，正是由于美国拒绝做出“不率先使用”的承诺。即使那只是一句空话，但阿米拒绝张口这件事本身就是一个明确的威胁。
感谢阿米创造并滋生出来的恐惧和毁灭的氛围，现在连印度和巴基斯坦也有拥核的架势了。
阿米本来可以阻止以色列获得核武器的，但她没这么做。
利比亚放弃了核计划，然后她就被摧毁了。如果她想要一个核电站，阿米本可以与之谈判，但她也没这么做。
毁灭的威胁越来越大，而且不幸的是，我们都会死在写这篇文章的疯子手上，实际上他跟金三胖是一路货色。