为什么美国情报局破译普京是如此的困难 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：菜鸟饭-审核者：刁民走开，朕要装逼了------------



American intelligence officers are trained to tackle tough targets.

美国情报人员都被训练来对付一些硬骨头。

But there are tough targets, and then there's Russian President Vladimir Putin, who plays his cards so closely that it's hard for his own advisers to divine what he's thinking, says Gregory Treverton, chairman of the National Intelligence Council.

除了有一些硬骨头以外，而且还有俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京，他对自己的行动计划是那么的保密以至于连他的顾问都很难预测他的想法，格雷戈里 特雷弗顿，国家情报委员会主席如是说。

"Putin is so isolated that the chances that he might miscalculate and do something rash are top of my list for things I worry about," says Treverton. "I am fond of distinguishing between puzzles — those things that have an answer, though we may not know it — and mysteries, those things that are iffy and contingent. And so how Putin is going to behave is presumably a mystery, and probably even a mystery to Putin."

”普京是十分孤立的，以至于他可能估计错误并且做出鲁莽的事的几率高到排在我最担心名单的首位，“特雷弗顿说道。”我对区分谜题很感兴趣——那些有答案的谜团尽管我们可能现在还不知道谜底——和神秘的事物，那些不确定和偶然性的事情。 而普京将会怎样表现大概是个谜，而且可能对普京来说也是个谜。

-------------译者：菜鸟饭-审核者：刁民走开，朕要装逼了------------

Treverton is not alone in this view.

特雷弗顿并不是唯一有此看法的人。

Retired Adm. James Stavridis, commander of NATO forces from 2009 to 2013, says Putin is exceptional in how little he telegraphs.

退休的亚当。詹姆斯 斯塔夫里迪斯，是2009到2013年的北约部队的指挥官，说普京是独特的，他很少发电报。

"He certainly has a cabinet of close advisers," Stavridis says."But at the end of the day, the strategic terrain is not on a map somewhere — it's in between Vladimir Putin's ears."

“他当然有一内阁的亲密顾问，”斯塔夫里迪斯说道."但是在一天结束的时候，战略地带并没有标在地图上——它在普京的大脑里。“

That makes it hard for the CIA and other spy agencies charged with tracking Russian military and economic assets — and with anticipating what Moscow might do next on the conflict in Syria, tensions in Crimea and a wide range of other matters.

这就使得美国中情局和其他间谍机构很难锁定俄罗斯的军事和经济资产——从而很难预测莫斯科接下来在叙利亚、克里米亚紧张局势以及其他一系列事务上将怎么行事。


-------------译者：善狼如我-审核者：刁民走开，朕要装逼了------------

brian woo • 5 days ago
He's not hard to understand.
He's been telling US to stop NATO expansion for long long time.
Warsaw pact is gone, why do you need NATO?
If you tell him that's not targeting Russia, why would he believe you?
He took NATO expansion as hostile actions against Russia.

 普京不难理解。很长一段时间来，他一直告诉美国停止北约扩张。华沙条约已经不存在了，为什么还需要北约呢？
你告诉他那不是针对俄罗斯的，他为什么要相信你？
普京认为北约扩张是针对俄罗斯的敌意行动。
 
MarcAurele3  brian woo • 5 days ago
On March 18, 2014, Putin explained his politics to the Russian Parliament. Since then, he has acted accordingly. Unlike Obama he doesn't let CNN or FoxNews run his country.

2014年3月18日，普京向俄罗斯议会阐述了其政治主张，从此后，他按照其主张进行行动。他不像奥巴马，他不会让CNN或者Fox新闻来管理他的国家。

-------------译者：檀木梳子-审核者：刁民走开，朕要装逼了------------

ME Janss  MarcAurele3 • 5 days ago
It's not so much CNN or FoxNews, but the neo-cons that burrowed into the State Department and Pentagon after the Bushies left.

CNN和福克斯新闻并没有起那么大的作用，真正影响美国的是那些在布什卸任后混进国务院和五角大楼的新保守派。
 
PERICLES  MarcAurele3 • 2 days ago
You're right, he runs it with an iron fist and a dislike of democracy. Putin kills innocent people on purpose.

 你是正确的，普京以铁拳管理国家，而且不喜欢民主。普京为了一己私利杀害了无辜的人民。
 
ZachTheB  MarcAurele3 • 5 days ago
No, it's more like the country (i.e. government) running CNN and Fox News.

 不，更像是国家（即政府）在运行CNN和福克斯新闻。
 
emily shaft  MarcAurele3 • 5 days ago
you blame Obama for the us constitution? freedom of press gives us rightwing propaganda like fox and cnn.

你因为美国宪法而责备奥巴马？是言论自由才导致像福克斯新闻和CNN这种右翼宣传工具的存在。

-------------译者：叶良辰-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

earlharley  brian woo • 5 days ago
and he should.It started to expand greatly as everyone realized Putin would stay in control one way or another.He doesnt want the USSR back because he knows he cant have it.So Czarist Russia will do.
MAYBE if Rusia had desent and opponents of Vlad werent mudered it would be different.Maybe if he actually left office and someone else was really in control.Maybe if the people actually had a democracy...but alas thoses days for Mother Russia were short lived.
Ever wonder how a mid level KGB officer is now a multi-millionaire owning huge shares in former state owned business`?The world knows...he didnt have the cash to buy in so he used the tactics of his supporters the Russian Mafia and took it.Seems Russians like to be dominated and surpressed.Is it in their genes?

他是应该神秘莫测。现在越来越多的人开始意识到普丁不择手段的要独揽大权。他可不想回到苏联时代，因为他知道回到那时，他会失去控制权。回到苏联是沙皇的品味。
如果俄罗斯是正派的而且普京对手不会被谋杀的话，那或许会有所不同。如果他下台由其他人接管权力的话，如果俄罗斯人民真正的拥有民主的话。。。但是这是这些对于俄罗斯来说都是昙花一现。
一个前朝的中级克格勃官员，现在坐拥千百万资产，怎么掠到的？有眼的人都知道个中玄虚------不是有钱买来的，而是利用支持他的俄罗斯黑手党去巧取豪夺，俄罗斯人好像喜欢被统治，被镇压，他们基因里带有了奴性？

 -------------译者：菜鸟饭-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

brian woo  earlharley • 5 days ago
Is it in Americans' gene that you worry stuff oceans apart and run over 800 overseas military bases and act like world policemen?

 是不是美国人基因里就爱担心横跨大洋的事务还跑遍800个海外军事基地而且表现的像世界警察？

Be a tough guy, and deal with tough guys.

 做一个硬汉，而且应付硬汉
 
cerezha  earlharley • 4 days ago
Excuse me, are you aware that "Vlad" has 80+% support from Russian citizens, confirmed numerous times by western pools?

抱歉，你有没有注意到普京有百分之八十多的俄罗斯民众支持，无数次被西方调研结果证明？
 
Lauren Watson  brian woo • 5 days ago
Expansionism has always been Russia's game for centuries, long before the "Great Game" with Britain. They can't take some of their own medicine.

 扩张主义很多世纪以来都是俄罗斯的策略，甚至远远的早于与英国之间的大博弈。 他们不会自尝恶果的。
 
Valera Bochkarev  Lauren Watson • 5 days ago
So, with US' "defense" spending dwarfing the next dozen or so industrialized countries, including Russia and China, combined, with over 800 military bases around the world, "promoting" regime changes all over the world, tell us how has Russia expanded since they became and then stopped being socialist ?

美国的“国防”开销比排在后面的十几个包括中俄的工业化国家的国防开销综合都来得多，在全世界拥有800多个军事基地，到处煽动其他国家的政权改变，你告诉我作为社会主义国家的俄罗斯扩张了多少？

-------------译者：cycy009-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Lauren Watson  Valera Bochkarev • 5 days ago
Georgia, Ukraine, and what's next?
Notice that I made no excuses for U.S. policy.

 格鲁吉亚，乌克兰，下一个轮到谁了？
我对美国的对外政策感到无语了
 
Valera Bochkarev  Lauren Watson • 4 days ago
Georgia, goaded by US, attacked South Ossetia. Ukraine's pivot to NATO, just like Georgia's was the reason for US-backed violent coup. Do you really expect Russia to give up its sphere of influence in its own back yard or give up its access to Black Sea and let NATO take over ?
Do show ANY evidence Russia invaded Ukraine . Plenty of American boots on Ukrainian soil , though. I think they are called " advisors and trainers ". And where did I hear that term before ?
To make it short and sweet and paraphrase Putin - fix your own country's problems first before indignantly pointing at others...

格鲁吉亚在美国的忽悠下去打南奥塞梯，乌克兰的暴力政变背后也有美国的影子，你真的天真的以为俄罗斯会放任西方不管让他们进入到自己的势力范围内？
说俄罗斯入侵乌克兰请拿出证据来。到是美国整天在背后给乌克兰出坏主意
先解你们自己内部的问题再来指责别人吧，不多说了，另外赞美普京，

 -------------译者：cycy009-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Peter  Lauren Watson • 5 days ago
Except the historical record demonstrate "always" is wrong. USSR accepted its breakup and let the "buffer zone" roll back circa a thousand miles, with a gentleman's agreement the West would not keep pushing. The West decided to push for an additional thousand miles. If Russia is now pushing back, complaining about Putin is just irrational. We picked this fight.

 说总是是错误的，苏联解体后战略缓冲区退后了几千公里，然后与西方签订了不继续压缩俄罗斯缓冲区的协定，现在西方又决定继续扩张对俄罗斯的缓冲区，俄罗斯要是抗争，再指责普京是可笑的，我们挑起了这个事
 
Lauren Watson  Peter • 5 days ago
Georgia?
Notice I made no excuses for U.S.policy

格鲁吉亚？
对此我对美国的对外政策无语了.

-------------译者：菜鸟饭-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Peter  Lauren Watson • 4 days ago
What about Georgia?

 格鲁吉亚怎么了？

Certainly what happened in Georgia/Ossetia and E. Ukraine ain't pretty, but if Putin were going by the classic "expansionist" playbook, why did he not smash both Georgia and Ukraine, and then annex them whole or install a puppet? That is what real expansionists like Napoleon and Catherine the Great did over the centuries.

 当然在格鲁吉亚/奥赛梯和乌克兰办的事并不漂亮，但是如果普京是用的经典的扩张主义者的伎俩，为什么他没有打败格鲁吉亚和乌克兰，然后完全吞并他们或者复制一个傀儡政权？ 这才是真正的扩张主义者像拿破仑和伟大的凯瑟琳在数个世纪前做的那样。

So, I am not claiming Putin is a nice guy. I am claiming that Lauren Watson's assertion that Putin is just playing a variant of the Great Game like the Russian expansionists of old simply does not hold water.

所以我没有声称普京是个好人。我想说的是劳伦 华生所主张的普京只是玩了另一种形式的大博弈就像是俄国古老的扩张主义者做的那样的说法，其实并不成立。

-------------译者：菜鸟饭-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Valera Bochkarev  Lauren Watson • 4 days ago
Do try to see it in the context though.

你最好还是从大背景的角度来看待这个问题吧。

Also, saying that you are not making excuses for US policy is just rhetoric.

而且，说你没有为美国的政策找借口只不过是花言巧语。

US and NATO have been encroaching on Russia's historical sphere of influence for the past several decades (DO look up PNAC and Wolfowitz Doctrine as well as The Clean Break Strategy).

美国和北约在过去的几十年间一直在试图侵犯俄罗斯的历史势力范围（有查询过新美国世纪计划和沃尔福威茨主义还有打破战略）

Picture US reaction if Russia would try to establish a military base, let's say, near Rio Grande River... Why do you expect Russia to behave differently ?

想象一下如果俄罗斯想要建立一个军事基地例如在里奥格兰德河的话，美国会作何反应呢。为什么期望俄罗斯会有不同的表现呢？（Ps.里奥格兰德河源出落基山，初向东，继向南流，最后沿美国、墨西哥国界作东南流向，注入墨西哥湾。）