中国开始将自己最大的问题推向全世界 [美国媒体]

Linette Lopez,Business Insider Wed, Apr 6 12:11 PM PDT . 



中国的钢铁机器人

The world is about to have a good old-fashioned glut on its hands, courtesy of China's problematic economy. 

拜中国的问题经济所赐，整个世界现在陷入一场经典的供大于求。

And the world is already starting to feel the pain.

并且，世界已经开始感到这种痛苦了。

The problem is that China's got too many companies producing things like coal and steel, and the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) doing this have racked up debt that's now eating up their profits. 

问题是中国有太多的公司生产煤炭和钢铁，同时这两个行业的国有企业债台高筑，吞掉了它们的利润。

The government is trying to shift the whole economy from its dependence on manufacturing, and it has already said that millions of people in some of these industries are going to be laid off in the next few years.

中国政府正试图整顿其依赖于制造业的经济，并称过剩产业的数百万人将在今后几年中下岗。

But China can't just shutter these companies overnight, because they still need to pay back the banks holding their debt and it would be an unmitigated disaster for employment. 

但是中国不可能在一夜之间关掉这些企业，因为它们还得偿还银行贷款，而且对于就业率来说也是彻底的灾难。

So these products have to go somewhere, and that means they're going to be exported to the world. There are a bunch of industries that need this treatment too. 

所以这些产品必须销到哪个地方，也就是得出口到国外。中国有一大把行业都需要这么做。

China's crude steel, aluminum, shipbuilding, chemicals, cement, refinery products, flat glass, and paper will all have to be unloaded on the world, whether the world needs them or not. (Mostly not.)

中国的粗钢、铝、造船、化工、水泥、炼油产品、平板玻璃、纸业，都需要向世界出口，不管其他国家是否需要（大部分是不需要的）。

Just getting started

只是个开始

The steel industry already offers a good example of what might be in store because China has made the most progress in dealing with that industry's problems.

关于将来会发生什么，钢铁行业给了一个很好的例子，因为中国在应对钢铁业的问题时，工作是最有进展的。

Let's put it this way: You know a problem is serious when China's tightly controlled state media outlets are allowed to talk about it in blunt terms. Here's Xinhua:

让我们这么说吧：当中国被严格控制的官方媒体被允许就该问题强硬发声的时候，你就知道问题有多严重了。新华社是这么说的：

Sagging demand has already impacted China's steel industry. The State Council, China's Cabinet, announced earlier last month that crude steel production capacity will be slashed by 100 million tonnes to 150 million tonnes over the next five years.

需求不振已打击了中国的钢铁业。中国的内阁，国务院上个月宣布，在今后5年中，粗钢将要去产能1到1.5亿吨。

The situation is so severe that the government predicts some 500,000 workers in the industry will be laid off.

形势如此严重，中国政府预计将有50万人因此下岗。

In 2015, China produced about 804 million tonnes of crude steel, but only 664 million tonnes of steel products were consumed last year, according to the government-led agency China Metallurgical Planning and Research Institute.

根据中国冶金规划研究所的数据，2015年中国生产了8.04亿吨粗钢，但是去年钢铁产品消费量只有6.64亿吨。

This is the government getting the people ready for job losses and, in some cases, relocation. Former steelworkers are already being turned into security guards and cleaners. Otherwise, workers will be out of a job, collecting checks from federal authorities.

政府是在让老百姓对失业做好准备，同时在某些情况下，为转换行业做准备。以前是炼钢工人的，现在成了保安和清洁工。要不然，就变成无业，领政府补贴。

So problem acknowledged, right? 

所以人们认识到问题了，对吗？

Yes, but it doesn't mean anything's going to happen soon (back to that needing to pay down the debt issue). China's biggest steelmaker, Baosteel, is still planning to increase output by 20% in 2016.

是的，但是这不意味着很快就会发生什么（这里要重提偿还贷款的事）。中国最大的钢铁厂宝钢，还计划在2016年增加20%的产出。

And all of that supply is about to be unloaded onto a world that doesn't really need it right now.

所有这些供给将要倾倒给这个已经不需要这些产品的世界。

Here's Macquarie Group:

麦格理集团的数据

低产能利用率是钢铁业的全球性问题



Of course, what this will do is keep the price of steel (and any commodity where this dynamic is at play) really low.

当然，这会将钢铁的价格（和其他有这种情况的商品）压的很低。

Tata, for now

现在来说说塔塔集团

Obviously, China isn't the only country that makes steel.

显然，中国不是唯一生产钢铁的国家。

That means other steelmakers aren't loving what's going on. US Steel, for example, said on Wednesday that it would be laying off 25% of its nonunion workforce.

这意味着其他国家的钢铁厂不喜欢现在正发生的事情。比如，美钢联周三宣布将要裁减25%的非工会员工。

"This is part of the ongoing adjustment to staff levels and operations due to challenging market conditions, including fluctuating oil prices, reduced rig counts, depressed steel prices and unfairly traded imports," a US Steel spokeswoman said.

“这是正在进行的员工人数和业务的部分调整措施，采取这些措施的原因是由于市场环境的挑战，包括油价波动、钻机减少、钢价下跌和不公平的进口贸易。”美钢联的女发言人称。

Commodities prices around the world, including iron ore and steel, ticked up after the month of February, but they're still at record lows, and down significantly from this same time last year. The structural issue — low demand — that is keeping commodities prices down hasn't changed.

全球大宗商品的价格，包括铁矿石和钢铁，在2月份之后上涨，但是仍然处于历史低位，而且比上年同时期大幅下跌。结构性问题是，使得大宗商品价格走低的原因——低需求——并没有改变。

中国的出口量仍保持高位，主要风险为出口目标地区的需求疲软



It's even worse in the UK. Last month, Indian behemoth Tata said that it would sell its UK steel division, rejecting an expensive turnaround plan for the company. British politicians immediately went to work saying how horrible this would be for an industry vital to the country.

英国的情况更差。上个月，印度塔塔集团称将出售其在英国的钢铁厂，而非采取昂贵的重整计划来挽救这家分支机构。英国政客们立刻开始评论说，对于英国非常重要的工业，这事有多么糟糕。

Even the royal family is getting involved; The Telegraph reports that Prince Andrew talked to Chinese President Xi Jinping about the issue on a visit to China.

连皇室都来插一脚，电讯报报道说，安德鲁王子在访问中国时，与习近平主席谈到了此事。

Call that political posturing if you want to, but it doesn't matter. In an increasingly isolationist and distrusting world where politicians are gaining traction by attacking free trade from the right (the Donald Trumps of the world who think China is "winning") this could become an important geopolitical issue.

你们可以把这看作政治姿态，但是这没有关系。在一个日益孤立主义和互不信任的世界里，政客们通过攻击自由贸易来获得支持（认为中国正在获得“胜利”的川普们），这可能成为重要的地缘政治问题。

China has only just begun to unload its excess supply on the world, so this unloading process is only going to get worse. It's only going to spread to more industries and impact more countries.

中国只是刚开始把过剩产能倒给世界，所以这个倾倒的过程只会越来越糟。这种情况只会扩大到更多的产业，影响到更多国家。

And it won't stop until the world has sopped it all up.

直到世界把这些都消化完，事情根本停不下来。



lou 1 day ago 
Anyone buying China's product will come to find out that they will be buying all the junk in China. Polluted junk, delluted raw material! Let it all stay in China! If anyone decides to buy any of it, you better buy it for less then what they paid for it! If not you will regret every minute of your purchase. China wanted to play with the big boy, well let them play. Beware of all the Chinese rich folks trying to leave China for the US! These people are no good! Let them stay on China and help the same people they ripped off! 

买中国货的人，会发现他们买的都是中国的垃圾。被污染的垃圾！让那些东西都呆在中国！如果有人要买，你最好付很少的钱！否则你每分钟都会后悔买了。中国想当老大，让他们当。小心中国的有钱人都想移民美国！这些都不是好人！让他们留在中国继续害人！

Duey 1 day ago 
I'm guessing then that you aren't using any products from China to post this message? 

我猜你不是在用任何中国产品发这条评论的吧？

FreeThinker 1 day ago 
Trump buys many things in China at low prices and then sells them at very inflated prices in the USA because he puts his name on them which his stupid ego thinks makes them worth 10 times a much as he bought them for.. 

川普从中国大批的低价采购，然后在美国高价销售，他觉得把自己名字印上去就值原来买价的十倍了。。。

RS 1 day ago 
I have refused to buy goods made in China for years. Everyone I know has been angry with me when they want to give me gifts. I say, get me a gift card and let me find my own gifts. Whenever I'm looking for something, the first place I look is for place of manufacture. Made in China gets put right back on the shelf. 

我已经好几年拒绝买中国货了。每个我认识的人要送我礼物时都很生气。我说，给我一张购物卡，我会自己买。每次我买东西，都会先看产地。中国制造的，直接扔回货架。

When you pay less for things, believe you me, you're paying for sheet. I've always considered communist China, the enemy. You do not befriend your enemy. Even Vietnam is having problems with them now! 

你买廉价货的时候，相信我，你就是在买垃圾。我一直认为中共是敌人。你不会跟敌人做朋友。连越南现在跟他们一起都有问题了！

Commenter 1 day ago 
" have refused to buy goods made in China for years."
So you rent your computer and built your own Internet? 

“好几年拒绝买中国货了。”
所以你是租了一台电脑，开发了你自己的互联网？

Commenter 1 day ago 
"Whenever I'm looking for something, the first place I look is for place of manufacture. Made in China gets put right back on the shelf. "

“每次我买东西，都会先看产地。中国制造的，直接扔回货架。”

Um, okay. Of course, you have zero idea what the country of origin is of the parts or even fabric 

嗯，好吧。当然，你是一点都不知道零部件或者纤维的原产国是哪里

lei 1 day ago 
Do not blame Chinese cheap products, you shall blame your US companies buyers who made such purchase. Chinese goods will not come to US by themselves, US companies control the distribution and retail outlets. 

不要怪中国的便宜货，要怪就怪你们美国的公司，它们买了这些中国货。中国的产品不会自己跑到美国去。美国的公司控制了分销网和零售网。

more education for you, your buyers of big retail chains such as Walmart, want to have cheap prices so they can get more customers like you, low class and poor with limited education, they do not care about quality, they have the power to stop buying from China, you shall ask yourself, why they have not done so. 

更多点信息给你们，你们的零售商比如沃尔玛，想要低价进货，这样就能吸引更多像你们这种社会地位低、又穷又没文化的顾客了，它们不关心质量，它们有能力停止从中国采购，你们问一下自己，为什么它们没有这么做。

Please use your brain, which I doubt you have one, and think little deeper. 

请用用脑子，我怀疑你们是不是有脑子，想得深一点。

Commenter 1 day ago 
"Do not blame Chinese cheap products, you shall blame your US companies buyers who made such purchase."

“不要怪中国的便宜货，要怪就怪你们美国的公司，它们买了这些中国货。”

This is AMERICA

这里是美国

We never blame the cause of the problem! 

我们从来不怪问题的根源！

Tim 1 day ago 
Yah blame the US, heck blame everyone for this problem but regardless of where China dumps there product, there stuff is all junk, poor quality no quality control.. If there products had been of a higher standard, we would not be having this conversation, would we. 

是啊，怪美国，怪所有人，不要管中国是不是倾销了货物，那些货物是不是垃圾，是不是质量很差，或者没有质量监督。。。如果中国的货物的品质高一点，我们就不会有这一席讨论了，不是吗。

Jim 1 day ago 
All you need to know about Chinese steel (not Taiwan) is that the San Francisco - Oakland Bay Bridge extension was built using it. And they are now finding cracks, rust, bad welds, uninspected areas and so on. There are some who fear the next major quake we have here could, repeat, could, cause the partial collapse of the new portion. If Cal Trans had purchased US steel the cost would have been about $70 million more. Government can be so short sited and dumb when it comes to construction projects. 

关于中国（不是台湾）的钢铁，你们要知道的就是，旧金山奥克兰海湾大桥的延长段用的是中国的钢材。现在发现有裂纹、锈蚀、焊接不良、未检验区域等等问题。有人担心下一次大地震可能，重复，可能，会造成部分坍塌。如果加州交通部门采购美国的钢材，成本会高出7000万美元。在建筑项目上，政府太短视，太愚蠢了。

New York Citizen 1 day ago 
Well US send over 200 American engineers to Zhehua Heavy Industries to supervise the production job and QC. So if the quality is bad, we have to first whip the #$%$ of those supervisors. Why no one complains iPhone is of bad quality because it is made in China? Simple, the supervisors are doing their jobs right. 

美国派了200名工程师去振华重工监督生产和质量控制。所以，如果质量差，首先应该抽打那些监督员。为什么没有人抱怨iPhone因为在中国制造而质量差？很简单，监督员的工作做得好。

Gary 1 day ago 
I am an American, retired general contractor from California. I live in Tianjin with my Chinese wife, so get to see life in China on a daily basis. In the building trades of Calif., probably the rest of America too, there are very stringent controls, inspections, quality control, etc. In China, I see none of that going on. My advice to anyone, don't buy Chinese products, they are cheap junk that doesn't last, and you'll just be replacing what you buy quickly. They make garbage. 

我是美国人，是加州的退休总包商。我和中国太太住在天津，所以我能每天观察到中国的生活。在加州的建筑业，可能美国其他地方也是，控制、检查、质量控制很严格。在中国，什么都没有。我建议所有人都不要买中国货，那就是廉价的垃圾，不耐用，很快你就得买新的来替代。中国就是制造垃圾的。

LaoShur 1 day ago 
I spent 14 years in China watching their economy "rise", according to western source. I watched them build ghost town after ghost town, housing projects that were only half built then stopped. And if they DID finish a project, it was either entirely bungled (soccer stadium TEDA, Tianjin) os simply began falling apart in a few short years and months even due to lack of compliance in building standards.
Most of us who witnessed, knew they were building to a crescendo. 

我在中国14年，看到了西方媒体所说的，中国经济的“崛起”。我看到他们建了一座又一座的鬼城，房地产项目建了一半就烂尾。如果他们确实完工了，要么就是粗制滥造（天津足球场），或者就是短短几年甚至几个月之后就塌了，因为不符合建筑标准。

Larry 1 day ago 
It's Japan all over again. In the 80's, maybe even into the early 90's Japan was the darling of the industrial world. They seemed to be doing everything right and other countries/industries/companies tried to emulate their management style and business models. Then it all collapsed in just a few years and Japan has become a third world country in a decades long recession. And now it's China's turn, for a number of years it seemed their economic growth couldn't be stopped, for the last year or so it seems to be one setback after another, one collapse after another. Better we try for slow and steady rather than fantastical booms followed by catastrophic busts. 

这是又一个日本。上世纪80年代，可能还要到90年代初，日本是工业世界的宠儿。他们做的所有事情好像都是对的，其他的国家/工业/企业都试图模仿日本的管理风格和商业模式。接着，就在几年之后，一切都崩溃了，日本成了第三世界国家，衰退了20多年。现在轮到中国了，有几年，中国的经济增长似乎停不下来，去年则是一个接着一个的挫败，一个接着一个的崩溃。我们最好保持缓慢平稳的增长，而不是疯狂的繁荣，而接下来是灾难般的破灭。