如果美国售台F35，中国怎么办？ [美国媒体]

-------------译者：Ericfather-审核者：小A------------



would happen if the United States decides to sell its new F-35 Lightning II fighter to Taiwan? The fictionalized scenario below, based on a careful analysis of the Chinese leadership, attempts to answer that question.

如果美国决定把F-35闪电II 战机卖给台湾的话会怎么样？跟据中国领导层的详细分析结果，我们接下来采用小说桥段来尝试回答这个问题。

March 2, 2017: A Taiwanese fighter jet on a routine patrol collides with a Chinese drone and crashes into the South China Sea; the pilot is killed. In response, the Republic of China Air Force, which for some time has been asking for upgraded planes, presses for a new arms package from America. Despite promising to maintain peace and stability in cross-Strait relations a little over a year ago in her victory speech, Tsai Ing-Wen, Taiwan’s president, is faced with growing pressure to respond strongly. A concerned Legislative Yuan authorizes major defense budget increases (overcoming budget difficulties) aimed at acquiring the F-35. Eager to signal that the rebalance she spearheaded in the Obama administration is returning in full force, newly elected president Hillary Clinton (following the advice of hawkish media commentators) directs the Defense Department to sell Taipei fifty F-35s. The sale is made, despite severe protestations from Beijing. How is a humiliated China likely to respond?

2017年3月2日：一架台湾的战斗机在例行巡航的时候与中国的无人机相碰被撞沉在南海，飞机上的飞行员也因此殉职。作为回应，之前已经多次要求战机升级的台湾空军强烈要求从美国家采购新式武器装备。尽管在胜选演讲时候承诺维持稳定的两岸关系的台湾领导人蔡英文面对越来越强的压力也不能不做出强势回应。台湾的立法院通过了增加国防预算采购装备F35战机的法案（克服财政困难）。（这件事情）强烈暗示了在强大的压力下，蔡英文重新当起了在奥黑政府时代亚太再平衡的先锋部队，新任美国总统希拉里·克灵顿（是按照鹰派媒体建议假设的）要求美国国防部对台湾出售五代战机F-35。尽管受到了中国的严正抗议，但是这笔买卖还是成交了。面对这样的耻辱，中国会做出如何反应呢？
-------------译者：Ericfather-审核者：maggicqueen99------------
 
Frank Blangeard ? 8 hours ago
The United States has been selling junk weapons to Taiwan for many years.

 Frank Blangeard：这些年美国尽卖些垃圾武器给台湾。
 
WHOHE  Frank Blangeard ? 7 hours ago
F-16's are junk? Shhhh, old man. Time for you to take your pills and go to bed.

 WHOHE回复 Frank Blangeard：F16是垃圾？嘘~~~糟老头。是时候吃点药然后滚上床睡觉了。
 
Frank Blangeard  WHOHE ? 7 hours ago
You are right ..it is time for bed. Already took my Haagen Dazs chocolate ice cream medication.

Frank Blangeard回复 WHOHE ：你说得对..是时候睡觉了。“哈根达斯巧克力口味冰淇淋”药物已经吃过了。

Sinbad2  Frank Blangeard ? an hour ago
Mmm.

 Sinbad2回复 Frank Blangeard：嗯。
 
sanoran_t  WHOHE ? 2 hours ago
Respect old age. Its your future.

 sanoran_t回复WHOHE：对老人家放尊重点。你也会变老的。
 
PC Master Race  sanoran_t ? an hour ago
If he's lucky enough to get there.  

PC Master Race回复sanoran_t：如果他能幸运的撑到那时候的话。

-------------译者：Ericfather-审核者：小A------------

philippinefailblog.com  WHOHE ? 5 hours ago
F-16s are junk when they are the F16A/B variants the Taiwanese still hold while the world around has gone to at least the F16E/F with some V variants.

 philippinefailblog.com回复WHOHE：F-16s就是个垃圾,当全世界开始装备至少是F16E/F带V变种的机型时台湾还只是装备F16A/B战机。
 
Eagle  philippinefailblog.com ? 5 hours ago
Have you seen china's Su27 clones?

 Eagle回复philippinefailblog.com ：你见过中国的苏27的仿制品吗？
 
philippinefailblog.com  Eagle ? 5 hours ago
Su27 clone? You talking about the J11s? The Chinese have the J11D and it's certainly better than anything the Taiwanese have:
"J-11D - Variant with fixed electronically scanned array radar, IRST,and capability to fire heavier imaging/infrared (IIR) air-to-air missiles. The airframe makes greater use of composite materials, especially in the engine intakes for lower radar observability. The wings have three hardpoints each. Unconfirmed reports claim it has a new fly-by-wire control system, glass cockpit, improved EW systems, and an improved version of the WS-10A engine.[34]"

 philippinefailblog.com 回复 Eagle ：苏27仿制品？你是说歼11吗？中国拥有歼11D，它的确比台湾拥有的任何战机都好。
“歼11D——装备了全电扫相控阵雷达，光电探测系统，具备发射红外成像空对空导弹的能力。机身更多的采用复合材料，尤其在发动机进气口部分降低被雷达探测到的可能性。机翼两侧各有三个挂载点。根据未经证实的报道称J11D拥有全新的电传操纵系统，数位化座舱，改良的电子战系统和改进版本的WS-10A发动机。[34]“

-------------译者：Ericfather-审核者：小A------------

Eagle  philippinefailblog.com ? 5 hours ago
LOL! You should change your name to Failed chinese jet engines blog.

 Eagle回复philippinefailblog.com：哈哈！你应该改名叫做”不成功的中国发动机博客“
 
Yang Ed Wren Nu  Eagle ? an hour ago
China could not produce a military jet engine worthy of fighter jets even if their lives depended on it. This is why most of their advanced aircraft are powered by Russian jet engines.

 Yang Ed Wren Nu 回复Eagle：虽然中国现在离不开对发动机的需求，但是中国并没有能力生产适合战机使用的军事发动机。这就是为什么他们大部分的先进战机采用俄罗斯的发动机的原因。
 
didactic1  Yang Ed Wren Nu ? 35 minutes ago
I'm sure one of our Navy pilots will be glad she has been shot down by a plane with a Russian engine instead of a Made in China engine. She can text Trump from Jail and tell him to negotiate a better deal with Russia too.

 didactic1回复Yang Ed Wren Nu：我非常确定我们某个女飞行员非常高兴她是被一架装备俄罗斯发动机而不是中国发动机的飞机击落的。她可以在监狱里发短信给川普叫他和俄罗斯好好协商协商。
 
dis-qussion  Eagle ? an hour ago
Thats a good one ! LOL

dis-qussion回复Eagle：取得一手好名字！哈哈

-------------译者：Ericfather-审核者：小A------------

didactic1  WHOHE ? 37 minutes ago
These planes differ. Some have the best software and detection methods. Some don't. The Israelis get the best. Guess who gets the worst? Besides the idiot US Air Force, of course.

 didactic1回复WHOHE：这些F16战机是不一样的。有些战机装备着最好的软件和侦测系统。而有些战机没有。以色列拥有着最棒的F16战机。猜猜看谁拥有的是最差的？当然要先把愚蠢的美国空军排除。
 
Sinbad2  WHOHE ? an hour ago
I bet the F16 is older than you?

 Sinbad2回复WHOHE：我敢赌F16绝对比你老，赌不赌？
 
Intul i5  Frank Blangeard ? 4 hours ago
I agree Frank. Taiwan is still stuck with F16A.

 Intul i5 回复Frank Blangeard ：我同意Frank的观点。台湾还是使用着F16A。
 
Eagle  Intul i5 ? 3 hours ago
china is still stuck with the H6 and a bunch of Su27 clones.

 Eagle回复Intul i5 ：（这么说）中国还是使用着H6和一堆苏27的仿制飞机呢。
 
XV  Eagle ? 2 hours ago
just go have a war with China then, lol

 XV回复Eagle：那就和中国干一架看看啊，哈哈哈
 
didactic1  XV ? 34 minutes ago
XV, you're Hillary! Break the Glass Ceiling, baby!

didactic1回复XV：XV，原来你就是希拉里啊！亲爱的，去打破女性仕途不平等待遇吧！

-------------译者：Ericfather-审核者：小A------------

Intul i5  Eagle ? 4 minutes ago
Su 27 is a beast.

 Intul i5回复Eagle：苏27可是野兽啊。
 
Yang Ed Wren Nu  Intul i5 ? an hour ago
It's not all about the gun. It's how one uses the gun. Being that Taiwan is defending its homeland and culture, my bet is on them. Ever read about the underdog Israel against six Arab nations?

 Yang Ed Wren Nu 回复Intul i5 ：战争不是只看武器的。而是看你如何使用武器。（如果真打起来的话）台湾为了守卫自己的家园和文化不被破坏，我赌台湾赢。你知不知道弱小的以色列是如何对抗6个阿拉伯国家的？
 
didactic1  Yang Ed Wren Nu ? 33 minutes ago
Ever read about the Arabs stupidly parking their jets on runways ready to be bombed when an international crisis they triggered spiralled out of control in June, 1967?

 didactic1回复Yang Ed Wren Nu：那你知不知道1967年6月时候（指第三次中东战争）阿拉伯国家们傻傻的把他们的战机停在跑道上送给别人炸，是他们让危机失控，可是却不做好准备？
 
didactic1  Frank Blangeard ? 38 minutes ago
Like selling whiskey to Indians.

 didactic1回复Frank Blangeard ：就像卖威士忌给印第安人一样。
 
dis-qussion  Frank Blangeard ? an hour ago
The United States has been making junks for many years.... literally !

dis-qussion 回复Frank Blangeard：美国制造垃圾好多年了。。。我可没在开玩笑！

-------------译者：Ericfather-审核者：小A------------

didactic1  dis-qussion ? 31 minutes ago
No Defense Contractor too big to Fail to complete a contract on time and under cost. Did you know overruns are in the Constitution? Justice Scalia is looking for that clause as we converse.

 didactic1回复dis-qussion：没有国防承包商能够准时完成合同并不超预算。你知道不知道宪法里有预算超支这一条？大法官斯卡利亚和我们协商的时候会提出出那个条款的。
 
Marcus Aurelius ? 7 hours ago
The F-35 "Junk" For Sale.
Taiwan's Air Force wants the F-35B short take-off and vertical landing fighter, but they can't afford new F-16sC/D fighters so it is highly unlikely they will be able to pay for an advanced warplane like a stealth fighter, said a Taiwan-based defense expert.
 US Congress stupidity combined with arrogance and a huge ego will get you a long way.

 Marcus Aurelius ：F-35被当作“垃圾”来卖。
台湾空军要的是短距离起降/垂直起降机种F-35B型，但是他们连新款的F-16C/D战机都买不起，所以他们基本不可能购买先进的战机例如隐形飞机，这可是台湾的国防专家说的。
 美国国会的愚蠢和自大会让你等很久的。

dis-qussion  Marcus Aurelius ? an hour ago
Taiwan can afford to buy anything the US dares to sell, you ignorant chipmunk !

dis-qussion 回复Marcus Aurelius ：只要美国敢卖台湾就敢买，你个愚蠢的花栗鼠！（花栗鼠比较笨）

-------------译者：Ericfather-审核者：小A------------

didactic1  dis-qussion ? 25 minutes ago
If we finance it, they'll buy it. US money real cheap if you are a "partner". As Israel says, "What a Deal"!

 didactic1回复dis-qussion：如果我们承担费用的话，台湾会买它的。如果你是“盟友”的话，美国的货币会非常实惠哦。正如以色列所说的那样：“真划算！”
 
philippinefailblog.com  Marcus Aurelius ? 5 hours ago
I believe the Taiwanese can afford and have been looking to purchase new F16s C/D Variants for a while. However, no US President to date since Regan is willing to anger China by selling the Taiwanese new fighter jets.

 philippinefailblog.com回复Marcus Aurelius：我相信台湾买得起而且他们非常渴望购买新的F16C/D战机。然而，自里根时代后没有美国总统愿意对台销售新型战机来惹怒中国。
 
Sinbad2  philippinefailblog.com ? an hour ago
"purchase new F16s "
 That's like buying a new Chevy Impala, great in their day, but so old.

 Sinbad2回复philippinefailblog.com ：
“购买新F16战机”
 这个就像买了一辆新雪佛兰英帕拉，在那个时候的确非常不错，但是现在来说过时了。

Frederick Douglass  Sinbad2 ? an hour ago
Stelth is overrated and the big improvement in military aviation is in electronics. I would prefer new F-105s with state of the art electronics.

Frederick Douglass回复Sinbad2 ：我觉得隐形技术是被高估了，而且现在电子工业在军事航空中的技术有了很高的提升。我更期待拥有最先进电子设备的新F105战机。

-------------译者：Ericfather-审核者：小A------------

Eagle  philippinefailblog.com ? 3 hours ago
Bush sold china the latest batch of F16s idiot.

 Eagle回复philippinefailblog.com：布什把最新一批的F16卖给了中国，你个白痴。
 
TDog ? 9 hours ago
What would China do? I think a more relevant question would be what would Taiwan do with a fighter that has a longer list of excuses than achievements...

 TDog：中国会怎么办？我认为另一个问题更重要一点，用着一架名过其实的飞机的台湾该怎么办？
 
Yang Ed Wren Nu  TDog ? an hour ago
The better question would be why does China have more variants of its planes than there are numbers? Pretty soon, it will be the J-XXX and no one will take them seriously.

 Yang Ed Wren Nu回复TDog：我觉得有一个更好的问题，为什么中国的飞机型号比飞机的数量还多？不用多久就会出来一个J-XXX的飞机，没有人再把这件事认真对待了。
 
International Thinker ? 9 hours ago
LOL that would Bankrupt Taiwan buying those useless POS.

 International Thinker ：哈哈，台湾会买这些没用的垃圾买破产的。
 
Curt ? 9 hours ago
Laugh. The Chinese would laugh.

 Curt ：搞笑。中国人会笑死的。
 
Wong K Ming Wa  Curt ? 8 hours ago
Laugh..."Watch Out, China: India's Navy Wants 200 Warships" By 2027, India wants a 200-ship naval fleet...LOL

Wong K Ming Wa 回复Curt ：搞笑。。。“要小心了，中国称：印度海军想拥有200艘战舰”。到了2027年，印度想要一艘名叫“200艘船”的战舰。。。哈哈

-------------译者：Ericfather-审核者：小A------------

didactic1  Wong K Ming Wa ? 30 minutes ago
It's a big ocean out there.

 didactic1 回复Wong K Ming Wa：那里是有一个巨大海洋。
 
Priyotosh Bairagya  Wong K Ming Wa ? 25 minutes ago
sorry CRAPA$$$ we are the 3 rd most powerful economy worldwide .. 200 surface combatants are meagre atleast 250 300 are needed for global domination .. atleast our navy does not use fraud statistics to inflate the figures .. china's 493 naval ships also count for coast guard ships .. if that is taken into account india already has more than 300 surface ships

 Priyotosh Bairagya回复Wong K Ming Wa ：对不起了小兄弟 ，我们可是世界第三大经济体。。。200艘水面战舰是不够的，立足国际的话至少要250-300艘。。至少我们海军没有在船舰数量上掺水分。。。中国的493艘战舰可是把海岸警卫队船只算入在内，如果把这个也算进去的话印度早就超过300艘水面战舰了。
 
Priyotosh Bairagya  Wong K Ming Wa ? 30 minutes ago
dumb a$$$$$$$$$ it means india is building 41+(6subs) warships as of now in its 14 shipyards 137 is the active fleet strength .. see already we will have 183 .. what makes you think we cannot build 17 more in the meantime .. btw we are the strongest economy in the Indian Ocean Region and we will be like that for another 80 90 years assuming no war breaks out

 Priyotosh Bairagya回复Wong K Ming Wa ：你个蠢货， 印度现在正在它的14所造船厂里建造41艘以上的军舰（6艘潜艇），有137艘活跃战舰。。。不久我们将有183艘啦。。。是什么让你觉得我们不能在此期间建造17艘以上的军舰？。。。顺便一提我们可是印度洋地区最屌的经济体，如果没有发生战争的话我们还可以屌个8/90年的。

-------------译者：Ericfather-审核者：小A------------

didactic1  Curt ? 30 minutes ago
They probably own Lockheed Martin thru shell companies that will take the DOJ another century to discover and sort out.

 didactic1回复Curt：他们可能通过一些皮包公司来掌控洛克希德马丁公司（世界最大的国防工业承包商），而这个事情要花费美国司法部一个世纪的时间去发现解决。
 
Yang Ed Wren Nu  Curt ? an hour ago
Then why aren't they laughing now that the U.S. is selling them old destroyers? Why is China complaining and being butt hurt over some 1970s-era ships?

 Yang Ed Wren Nu 回复Curt ：那么为什么现在美国卖给台湾一些老款驱逐舰时候，中国笑不出来了呢？为什么中国要介意70年代的老战舰并发出抱怨呢？
 
didactic1  Yang Ed Wren Nu ? 26 minutes ago
They'll do the job to secure Chinese superiority in the South China Sea. World markets don't want a war in the oceans off S.E. Asia. Lots of world commerce there.
Perception's always ignored by the geniuses in the Pentagon who never had a real job as, Trump would say, making deals and negotiating.
Not a Trump fan, but he understands that you BUY low and SELL high. That's not what our desk bound golf weary admirals and generals understand, or our sports/pop music obsessed "CIC".

didactic1 回复Yang Ed Wren Nu ：他们（美国）会确保中国在南海的优势的。对于国际市场来说可不想在东南亚发生战争。那里有很多国际贸易呢。
这些想法会被从没干过正事的五角大楼里的天才们所忽略的；就像川普所说的这些人永远都不知道如何交易和谈判。
我不是川普的粉丝，但是他清楚低买高卖的道理。那可并不是我们那些坐在办公桌前对厌倦打高尔夫的将军所能理解的那样，也不是沉迷体育娱乐的最高司令官所能理解的那样。