美媒：中国对台湾的心理战 [美国媒体]

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Taipei may fall for Beijing's mind games.

台北可能会栽在北京的心理战上。

The uncertainty surrounding the cross-strait policy of Taiwan’s newly elected president, Tsai Ing-wen, has produced a great deal of unease and concern in Beijing. China desperately seeks Tsai’s affirmation of the “1992 consensus” which provided the foundation for cross-strait relations under the Ma administration. As part of its effort to sway Tsai’s policy, China is increasingly turning to psychological warfare to pressure the incoming administration.

台湾最新当选的总统蔡英文给台海关系带来的不确定性令北京方面忧心忡忡。大陆极力想要蔡英文肯定在马英九执政期间为台海关系打下基础的“九二共识”。为了改变蔡英文的执政路线，大陆方面正加倍投入到心理战来为台湾的新执政团队施加压力。

-------------译者：cpcchina-审核者：小A------------

In late January, several days after Taiwan’s presidential elections, Chinese media aired broadcasts of what it claimed were large-scale Chinese military operations in Fujian province, opposite Taiwan. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense however, these videos were not authentic and consisted of spliced scenes from earlier People’s Liberation Army (PLA) military exercises. In response to these broadcasts, a Taiwanese military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the broadcast may be "psychological warfare" warning the new Taiwan government to tread carefully.

在一月末，也就是台湾大选落下帷幕的几天之后，中国的各大媒体竞相报道了在福建省的大规模军事行动，就在台湾的对面。但根据台湾的国防部，那些影像资料并不权威，并且穿插了不少解放军早期训练的镜头。作为对这些报道的回应，一名台湾的军事长官，匿名指出这些报道可能是一种“心理战术”，用以警告新执政团队小心行事。


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The Norseman • a day ago
The Taiwanese are very well aware of the CPC/PLA's games, which backfired pretty bad, as the Taiwanese overwhelmingly voted in favor of the DPP this election because the Taiwanese want nothing to do with the Chinese government. It was the Taiwanese choice to make, and they made that choice via free & fair elections, which gives their position true legitimacy, unlike the Chinese government who is in power for no other reason than threat of force on the common Chinese people

 台湾人对于中共和解放军的这些把戏知道的一清二楚，这些伎俩只起到了反作用，从这次台湾人一边倒地投给民进党票就能看得出来。台湾人根本就不关心大陆政府如何如何。这些是台湾人民自己的决定，而他们是通过公平自由的民主投票表达他们的诉求的，他们的诉求完全合法，而不像中国政府那样执政得全无道理，只不过是通过武力恫吓他们的人民。

The Taiwan Relations Act provides that the USA will come to the defense of Taiwan, if the Chinese communist dictatorship orders an attack on Taiwan. Both the USA and the CPC are preparing for this. Regional governments are preparing for this as well by establishing and strengthening alliances with each other and the USA & Japan.

如果独裁的中共想要袭击台湾，台湾关系法决定了美国会协防台湾。美国和中共都在为这一天准备着。地区内政府也在通过加强彼此之间和与日美之间的联盟为这一天做准备。

This war that will happen will probably see the end of the Chinese government because of the catastrophic failure of it's policies through the decimation of it's naval and air forces, as well as it's space assets and much of it's strategic rocket forces.

这场即将发生的的战争，很可能会见到中国政府由于它的政策的致命失误而灭亡，因为它的海军和空军都会被消灭，也包括太空设备和战略火箭军。

The biggest victors, however, will not be the USA or Taiwan, but rather the common Chinese people themselves, as they will finally get to choose a modern government that supports basic human rights and freedom. It will be a big victory for all humanity.

但是最大的胜利者不会是美国或台湾，而是大陆的普通人民，因为他们最终有了一个符合基本人权与自由的现代化政府。这是全人类的胜利。

-------------译者：cpcchina-审核者：bnge------------

xjp1953  The Norseman • a day ago
More or less I agree with this, but I am afraid we will pay an extremely big price for this. The Chinese higher leadership is now totally out of control. The power is rapidly slipping out of their hands, and they have no idea what to do, and this makes them nervous and they started to make random steps. The fall will be big and everybody will suffer.

xjp1953回复 The Norseman 我或多或少地同意这种看法，但是我恐怕我们要付出极大的代价。中国的高层已经完全失控，权力在从他们的手中快速溜走，他们现在有些不知所措，这让他们十分紧张，乱了步调。失败肯定是巨大的，所有人都将遭受不幸。
 
Inneed Ofabender  xjp1953 • 10 hours ago
Maybe and hopefully not..........a potato begins its rot from within.....and eventually dies by itself. The Russians did not take advantage of this in the nineties and they fell back under dictatorship.......Maybe when this occurs again in China the Chinese will take full advantage of their chance
this time around.......history always repeats until you take charge and change it's direction. It's a waiting game.

Inned Ofabender 回复 xjp1953 希望不是如此……马铃薯是从中间先开始腐烂的，最终自己走向灭亡。俄罗斯人没有抓住九十年代的机会，又走回了独裁的老路。但说不定中国人会抓住这个机会……历史会在人抓住机会改变它的方向之前一直重复。这是一个关乎等待的竞赛。

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philippinefailblog.com  The Norseman • 10 hours ago
1.) Taiwan is a province of China and even the United Nations say so.

philippinefailblog.com 回复 The Norseman 1.台湾是中国的一个省，连联合国也是这样承认的。

2.) The Taiwan Relationships Act only requires the US to sell Taiwan "Defensive Weapons". It doesn't require or say the United States must go to war to defend Taiwan. Given that it requires nearly all the war planes in the United State Inventory to fight China over the Taiwan Strait, the Taiwanese will be on their own if war breaks out.

 2.台湾关系法只要求美国对台湾出售“防御性武器”。并没有提到美国必须要跟大陆开战来保护台湾。考虑到在台湾海峡美国需要出动全部的战机来打击大陆，战争来临时台湾人估计要自己扛咯。
A.) http://warisboring.com/article...
 
"RAND crunched the numbers are decided that, by 2017, the United States would need to deploy 30 wings of 75 fighters each to the western Pacific in order to defeat outright a Chinese aerial assault on Taiwan. That’s “unsustainable,” according to the think tank."
“兰德公司毫不留情地指出，数据显示，在2017年之前，美国需要将在西太平洋部署30个战斗机群，各自包含75架战斗机抵抗大陆对台的空袭。根据智库分析，这显然是“难以为继”的。“

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The Norseman  philippinefailblog.com • 5 hours ago
I see you chose to publish only *one* of the several scenarios in RAND's study which just so happens to not include the USA taking out China's airfields with cratering munitions which could be done by the USA's 4 Ohio class SSGN's ALONE. Each carries 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles X 4 Ohio's = 616 cruise missiles completely invulnerable to the PLA's A2/AD assets. Each hugging the terrain undetected by radar.

 The Norseman 回复  philippinefailblog.com 我发现你只挑了兰德公司的报告中的一种场景来写。这个场景没有包括美国用杀伤性弹药事先干掉了大陆的所有机场，这件事用四艘俄亥俄级的核潜艇就能独立完成。每艘潜艇携带156枚战斧X4艘潜艇=616枚巡航导弹而且它们完全不会被解放军的反介入与区域封锁武器干扰。这些贴地巡航导弹也不会被雷达发现。

Every scenario of the PLA trying to subjugate the Taiwanese people through force has been picked apart to the Nth degree.
There is not any plausible scenario where the PLA even comes close to challenging the USA's military dominance.

每一种解放军试图攻占台湾的场景模拟都已被慎之又慎地讨论过啦。
没有一个场景显示解放军能挑战美军的军事主导地位。
 
Steve S  philippinefailblog.com • 13 minutes ago
The only reason the UN doesn't recognize Taiwan as independent is because it doesn't want to deal with China's temper tantrum.

Steve S 回复  philippinefailblog.com 联合国不承认台湾独立的唯一原因是不想面对大陆的小孩子脾气。

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Thinker  philippinefailblog.com • 2 hours ago
Can someone please tell why this TOOL thinks what the UNITED NATIONS says is important. The UN is a UNITED STATES made institution to promote America first and Western ideals.The moment that goes the other way the USA will close that USA made institution. Stop with the UN banter... it holds no water to an educated American who teaches this stuff... The same holds true to the WTO.. American made for American export and influence... The UN is an American TOOL for AMERICAN ideas and ideals and business... Stop with your argument that the UN is important in the grand scheme of things...STOP!!

有人能解释一下为什么这个蠢货会觉得联合国讲的东西很重要吗？联合国是一个美国成立的将维护美国利益放在第一位并且站在西方立场的组织。战争一开始美国就会把这个美国扶持的组织关闭。别开关于联合国的玩笑了。。。对于任何一个受过教育的美国人联合国讲的东西跟放屁一样。。。这对世贸组织也同样适用。。美国为了出口和海外影响力建立起来的机构。。。联合国不过是一个为了美国利益的美国人的工具而已。。。停下你那联合国的宏伟计划很重要的论调。。。停下！

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xjp1953  philippinefailblog.com • 4 hours ago
Yes, taking "back" Taiwan would be as easy as taking a pacifier from a baby, obviously. It is a real mystery why PRC did not do something in the past 70 years. Why not starting demonstrating PLA's superior power e.g. by taking back Jinmen? It is merely about 150 km2, it is of 2 km-s distance from Fujian. After this it would certainly be much easier to convince Taiwanese to "reunify".

 是的，显然“收复”台湾将会简单得就跟从婴儿那儿拿走奶嘴一样。为什么中国在过去70年里不这么做是个十足的谜团。为什么不通过像收复金门这样的举动来展现解放军的超级力量呢？它不过才150平方公里左右大，离福建只有两公里远。在那之后说服台湾人“统一”肯定简单多了。
 
Saron Pos  philippinefailblog.com • 2 hours ago
Taiwan has always been independent and always will be. We have our own weapons too. And we love to fight cocky commie like you. Taiwan also has mach 3 plus antiship missles too, and china has no defense against them. Your PLA will be bodybags going back to china. If you have any doubts, then come and get it. You are a cocky pig. OINK OINK OINK!!
Don't mention the Americans. We Taiwanese be happy to bloody YOUR nose first!!

台湾一直以来都是独立的而且以后也将如此。我们也有自己的武器。而且我们热爱和像你这样自大的共产党人战斗。台湾还有超过3马赫的反舰导弹而大陆没有抵抗它们的防御手段。你们这些解放军会以裹尸袋的形式运回大陆。如果你怀疑的话，就来试试好了。你就是头蠢猪！呼噜噜的叫！
别提起美国人。我们台湾人会很高兴能先把你打得头破血流！

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scanner  The Norseman • 9 hours ago
good thing about a democratic china is Han bachelors will finally be able to import viet and Pinay hos without CPC smuggling laws https://www.instagram.com/p/BD...
 
民主的中国的好处就是，汉族单身汉可以进口越南和菲律宾新娘，不用管中共的走私法。

potanarbor • 13 hours ago
China has no sovereignty over Taiwan. That's why Beijing needs this so called "92 Consensus" so badly. Beijing wants to use it to FORMALLY claim Taiwan!
For so many decades China's claim on Taiwan has been fake and fraudulent. The claim is only a front for its aggression and territorial expansion. This "92 Consensus" says it all.
 
中国没有台湾的主权，所以北京迫切需要所谓的“92共识”，通过它北京可以正式声称拥有台湾的主权。
几十年来中国的主权要求都是虚假伪造，这种要求只是他进攻性和领土扩张的一部分，这个“92共识”说明了一切。
 
Springfire  potanarbor • 13 hours ago
"China has no sovereignty over Taiwan"
UN and all UN members say China has sovereignty over Taiwan. What you say hardly matters.

“中国没有台湾的主权”
联合国和全部联合国成员国都认为有，你说什么都没用。

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Thinker  Springfire • 13 hours ago
That is only for TRADE... not a legit agreement. Nothing in writing... just verbal.
 
它只是为了贸易，不是正式的协议，只是口头的承诺没有书面内容。
 
Springfire  Thinker • 13 hours ago
As I said, what you said hardly matters.
 
像我说的，你说什么都没用。

xjp1953  Springfire • 13 hours ago
"all UN members say China has sovereignty over Taiwan" -- You mean that even those UN members which do not recognize China, recognize that China (which they do not recognize) have sovereignty over Taiwan? Huh, try again.
 
“所有联合国成员认为中国拥有台湾主权？”——你是指甚至那些连中国都不承认的成员，会认为中国（一个他们不承认的国家）拥有台湾的主权？再想想吧。

Springfire  xjp1953 • 13 hours ago
Hah ... a few minor countries hardly matters.

蛤...几个小国家根本没用。

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Thinker  Springfire • 2 hours ago
CHINA was a minor country until @2000...
 
一直到2000年以前，中国都是小国家...

Saron Pos  Springfire • 2 hours ago
Why don't you come and get it?! Are you china afraid of a war with Taiwan? Taiwan has mach 3 + anti ship missles too. We be happy to give you a bloody nose. If you are too afraid to invade, the shut your pie hole. You commie squeal more than female pig giving birth. OINK OINK OINK.
 
那你为什么不来试一试？！你们中国连和台湾打仗都怕？台湾也有3马赫以上的反舰导弹，我们很乐意给把你们打得头破血流。如果你们连侵略的胆子都没有，就闭上你们的XX，你么这些阿共叫的比母猪生崽还响，哼，哼，哼。

philippinefailblog.com  potanarbor • 10 hours ago
Taiwan is a Province of China and even the United Nations say so:

台湾是中国的一个省，连联合国都这么说。

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Thinker  philippinefailblog.com • 2 hours ago
The UN is an organization that exists at the behest of its creator (the USA) to promote first and foremost AMERICAN IDEALS to the world. The moment that stops being the case the USA will close the UN...the same holds true to the WTO and the World Bank. Both are American controlled organizations that can get rid of ANY member at the behest of its greatest benefactor (the USA... the same with the UN... China would not have had a seat in the UN without the USA...remember that.).
 
 联合国这个组织接受它的创造者（美国）的命令，它的存在的首要目的是向全世界传播美国价值观。如果不这么做，美国就会关闭联合国，对WTO和世界银行也是一样。这两个都是美国控制的组织，在它的最大利益来源（美国。在联合国内也一样，记住没有美国同意中国根本进不了联合国）的命令下可以踢出任何成员。

Temujin • 1 day ago
Chinese psychological warfare may work on Taiwan but it does not work on Vietnam and Philippines, in fact it has the opposite effects - embolden both nations to prepare the need and ready fight/deter any Chinese adventurism and aggression.
 
中国的心理战也许对台湾有用，但对越南和菲律宾没有用，实际上有反作用。给这两个国家壮胆，做好准备与中国的冒险性进攻战斗和对抗。