印度和越南可以拯救亚洲权力平衡 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：布拉格鸽子蛋-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



India no longer hides its aspirations of playing an active political and security role in the Asia-Pacific. For political and commercial reasons, the region is critical to India’s strategic thinking. But India’s may not be able to deftly integrate itself in the region, due to lack of consistent political will, steady military modernization and the galloping pace of the regional economy. However, New Delhi has been slowly expanding its strategic and economic heft through its Act East policy, blue-water navy and multilateral diplomacy.

印度不再隐藏她想在亚太地区发挥积极的政治和安全作用的志向。出于政治和经济原因，亚太地区是印度战略思想的关键。但由于缺乏一致的政治意愿，稳定的军事现代化和区域经济的飞速发展，印度未必能巧妙地将自己融入到该地区。然而，印度已通过向东行动政策、蓝水海军和多边外交等行动慢慢扩大其战略和经济力量。

In the evolving security context of the Asia-Pacific, one country that is key to India’s sustained presence and role is Vietnam. In the last few years, Hanoi’s diplomatic profile has grown in New Delhi’s strategic calculus. At the intersection of India’s Act East policy and Vietnam’s Look West policy, both countries have a historic opportunity to shape Asia’s balance of power.

在亚太地区不断演变的安全背景下，越南成为印度持续存在和作用的关键。在过去的几年里，河内的外交形象在新德里的战略演算中逐渐高大起来。在印度向东行动政策与越南向西看政策的交叉点，这两个国家都有一个历史性机会来塑造亚洲的力量平衡。


-------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Peace for All • 2 minutes ago
Indian FM just supported China's position that the SCS dispute should not be internationalised in the FM meetings between China, India and Russia. It is therefore unrealistic to believe that India would team up with Vietnam to counter China in the SCS. Apart from economic factors that India would no doubt bear in mind in its relationship with China, security factors would also come into play (think Pakistan, China-India border, Indian Ocean etc).
Whilst India would no doubt want to balance against China, given it size and importance in Asia it would realise its value to the US and its allies as well as Russia. It has the option to, and will probably be smart enough to, look for stronger partners like US, Russia and Japan who can stand up for India's security interest in a conflict with China, rather than partner weaker states than itself which it would instead be expected to stand up for their interests in their conflict with China. Balancing amongst the great powers (i.e US, Russia and China) would be the realist approach, not an ill considered rush to embrace Vietnam and antagonise China with little strategic benefit for India.

印度外长最近在一次中印俄三国的外长会晤中表示支持中国避免南海问题国际化的立场。因此很难使人相信印度会与越南结盟在南海问题上对抗中国。在印度衡量与中国的关系时，除了无疑会被印度格外重视的经济因素外，安全因素也会被考虑（考虑到巴基斯坦，中印边境，印度洋问题等）。
印度无疑想要适时地制衡中国，毕竟考虑到它的面积和重要性它就能明白自身对于美国以及其他盟友及俄国的价值。它可以选择去，也应该有足够的智慧去寻找像美国、俄国、日本这样更强大的，能够在中印发生冲突时为印度的国防利益出头的盟友，而不是比它自身还弱小、在中印冲突中毫无用处的国家。
平衡与各大国的关系（即中美俄）会是最现实的方案，而不是缺乏考虑地去结盟越南并且在几乎无法收获任何战略利益的情况下激怒中国。

 -------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

TDog • 2 hours ago
India being the solution to any problem assumes the fantasy that they can solve anything... Given India's inept bureaucracy, lack of political presence and weight in most international fora, and severely constrained business environment, it should be taken as given that what India accomplishes it does so despite itself and never by design.
For India, the issue isn't friends or speeches, but the fact that India has four resupply ships in its entire navy. Relying upon Vietnamese ports might make up for that shortfall, but it should be noted that ports don't move. A ship going to and from will be all that much easier to track because it will be known where they will eventually have to go.
Furthermore, in terms of economy and political presence, India has a GDP roughly one-fifth the size of China's and no permanent UNSC seat respectively. India is advertising itself as the counterweight to China when it has absolutely no weight to offer.
The US would be better off relying upon the Philippines and Japan. Despite their shortcomings, the latter is at least reliable and the former has a relevant location. India is a wannabe trying to tell everyone they're the next best thing.

印度解决任何问题的方式都是幻想他们能解决任何问题...印度有失败的官僚系统，在大多数国际场合都缺乏政治上的存在感和重要性，国内的商业环境极度恶劣，这些也应当被视为印度的成就虽然它自己从没计划过这些。
对于印度来说，问题不在于谁是朋友或者发表了什么言论，事实是整个印度海军拥只有四艘补给舰。依靠越南的港口中转，这个短板就能被弥补，但应该注意港口是不能动的。一艘军舰的行踪会变得非常容易被发现，因为大家都知道它最终会回到哪去。
再者，就印度现在的政治经济状况来说，印度的GDP大约只有中国的五分之一并且没有安理会常任理事国的地位。印度一直以对华的地区平衡力量自居，然而它根本没有力量去制衡中国。
美国最好是仰仗菲律宾和日本。虽然它们有缺点，日本起码还能靠得住，而菲律宾有优越的地理位置。印度正急迫地想告诉大家他们是下一个最好的选择。

 -------------译者：龙腾翻译总管-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Merlion Economist  TDog • an hour ago
India got their behinds handed to them at the UN with the China terrorist listing veto. This implies very clearly that India does not have the influence nor the power that it thinks it has. No other state has voiced their concerns other than India. India is alone on this and they are expending alot of political capital on a dubious no gain issue.
The author hasn't factored in what China would do to the Indians should India decide to team up with VN. China could at a moments notice build a full on naval/air base in gwadar and call it a naval support centre just to stick it to the indians and it would probably be better than anything the indians could hope for in vietnam. Again I'm eluding to the fact that india can't get much done in anything they do.
India needs china's support to get onto the UN security council and it will have no hope of doing that if they upset the chinese.
yes, india made a huge fuss about the terrorism listing that got vetoed, but the results will tell you how much power india has.

在安理会上中国一出否决权印度就不行了。这表明印度不具备自己所认为的影响力和权力。除了印度其他国家都没有对南海表示担忧。印度在这个问题上是孤独的，而且把大量的政治资本花在一个没有好处的议题上。
作者没有谈及的是如果印度和越南联合中国会对印度采取什么措施。中国可以立马在瓜达尔港建立一个海空基地，并称其为海军补给中心，来对付印度，这比印度在越南可能获得的东西可能要强上很多。总之我认为印度的办事能力不行。
印度需要中国的支持进入联合国安理会，所以如果惹怒中国的话，印度不可能进入安理会。
是的，印度就恐怖分子名单在联合国遭到否决而大做文章，但是结果让你知道印度拥有多少的权力。

 -------------译者：龙腾翻译总管-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

JohnChan  Merlion Economist • 43 minutes ago
Half of India is Red Corridor, would supplying the insurgents in the Red Corridor be a more effective and cost efficient way to make Indian turn their attention where it should be instead of making unrealistic day dreams 24/7?

印度有一半地区位于红色走廊地带，向红色走廊的反叛分子提供补给或许是一种让印度管好自己的事情而不是到处惹事的更好办法？
 
Merlion Economist  JohnChan • 19 minutes ago
Probably not a good idea as india could support tibetan separtist in China.
Certainly moral support and idealogical support might be more appropiate and politically more acceptable.
India has got to many problems that supporting VN would not be worth it for her to get a china that is angry.

楼上的，你这主意不是很好，印度反过来也可能支持中国的西藏分裂分子。
道德支持和意识形态支持或许更加合适，在政治上也更加容易被接受。
印度自己有太多问题需要处理，如果支持越南而惹怒中国的话那就太不值得了。

 -------------译者：龙腾翻译总管-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

thesurvivor • 41 minutes ago
There you go again, instigating proxies to die for US domination of the world.
Both India and Vietnam see the advantage of irritating China. They get good deals from the west if they say the right thing to Washington. They also know that US is going downhill relatively speaking and they must hedge for the future. After all China is their largest trading partner and where their next meal come from.

又在唆使代理人为美国主宰世界而亡。
印度和越南看到了激怒中国的好处。如果他们拍华盛顿马屁就可以从西方获得好处。他们也知道美国正在相对的衰弱，他们必须为自己的未来做好打算。毕竟中国是他们最大的贸易伙伴，是他们接下来的衣食父母。

Johnno • an hour ago
TDog, in any event the real weak man in the area is the Philippines. If nothing is done it will remain an easy target not just the China's claims but also to Vietnam's which overlap in the Spratly's. India's building rate is such that if it does not release vessels from its own forces the new vessels will turn up 2+ years hence. China will have finished its bases in the area and will be the force in presence. What then?

无论如何，该地区最弱的要数菲律宾了。如果不改变，它不仅将继续成为中国主权声明的目标，也会成为越南的目标，因为菲律宾和越南在南沙的主权声明领域存在重叠。印度的船只建造速度太慢，如果不从印度现有的舰队中拨出的话，那么需要两年多才能提供给越南。届时中国将完成在该地区的基地建设并形成军事力量。然后呢？

-------------译者：huanglj-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Nicky • an hour ago
if India wanted to, it could make life hard for China by selling Arms and training to china's neighbors but then China can do the same by selling more stuff to China's ally, Pakistan.

如果印度想困扰中国的话可以向中国邻国出售武器和提供培训。但是中国也能向盟友巴基斯坦出售更多军火达到同样的效果。
 
JohnChan  Nicky • 34 minutes ago
Indian Army won't use Made-in-India cannon shells, how is anyone going to get shells or bullets after buying "Arms" from India? Basically you cannot call weapons without ammunitions arms, weapons without ammunitions are decors.

印度的军队都不用印度制造的炮弹，如果买了印度制造的武器那么如何找到合适的炮弹或者子弹呢？没有弹药的武器基本上是用不了的，没弹药的武器就是装饰品。