美媒：为什么中国入侵印尼水域时印尼不反抗 [美国媒体]

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A China Coast Guard vessel rammed a Chinese fishing boat free in March after Indonesian authorities had seized it for illegal fishing off the Natuna Islands, Indonesia’s northernmost territory in the South China Sea. The Indonesian patrol let the Chinese ships go, as has been the case in similar incidents.

今年三月在南海印尼最北端的领土上，一艘中国渔船在纳土纳群岛非法捕鱼被印尼当局逮捕，随后在中国海警船的撞击下，这艘渔船被解救出来。

Peaceful management of the area is in Indonesia’s strategic interests, even though the country is not part of the disputed South China Sea claims involving Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei and China. But China’s claim to roughly 90 percent of the area overlaps with the Natunas’ Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). And Indonesian President Joko Widodo — better known as Jokowi — has prioritized the development of marine resources and the protection ofthe country’s maritime borders since assuming office in 2014.Is Jokowi about to stand up to Chinese encroachment into Indonesia’s coastal waters?

虽然不是越南、菲律宾、马来西亚、文莱与中国在南海领海争端中的一方，但确保该地区的和平稳定，是印尼的战略利益。但中国声明的领土有90%的区域与纳土纳群岛包括专属经济区重合。
自2014年印尼总统维多多（作为佐科维更广为人知）执政以来，大力发展海军以保护广阔的海洋边境线。但佐科维能顶住中国对印尼海洋主权的侵犯吗？

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But Indonesia is not pushing back against China. Here’s what neo-classical realistinternational relations theory suggests about why this is happening: States should forcefully react, either through alliances or military buildup, to protect long-term security interests — known as balancing — against threatening states. Yet domestic politics often hinders them from doing so.

印尼并未向中国反推，当前发生事件正如新古典现实主义国际关系理论所表明的那样：国家面对这种状况要么激烈应对，要么联盟，或者增强军事力量，以保护长期的安全利益。通过平衡术，来对抗产生威胁的国家，然而印尼国内政局却时常阻碍这样对抗措施的实施。

I argue that Indonesia under Jokowi is under-balancing against China. Under-balancinghappens when a threatened state fails to correctly perceive the threat posed by another state, or simply does not react appropriately to it.

我赞成印尼对抗中国是不对等的，这种不对等存在于受威胁的国家不能正确感知其他国家加于身上的威胁，或者不能对这种威胁做出适当的应对。

-------------译者：long123km-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

That Indonesia has not forcefully responded, militarily or diplomatically, to China’s increasing presence on its doorstep reflects assessments of three main parameters:

印尼对中国在其家门口不断增强的存在，并未采取军事或者外交上的过激反应。主要基于以下三方面的评估：

1) is China really a threat to Indonesia?
2) Indonesia’s foreign policy priorities aren’t clear, either.
3) So what’s the effect of all these uncertainties?

1） 对印尼而言，中国确实是一个威胁吗？
2）印尼对外政策不明晰。
3）所有不确定性会导致什么后果？


-------------译者：long123km-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
 
Randy Ran
8:57 AM GMT+0800
a simple case of whose balls are bigger.. LOL

 简单，就是比谁的拳头大！
 
rc115RogerThat
8:46 AM GMT+0800
Imbeciles! China’s money, markets, leadership, and global power, are; the source of long term growth of Indonesia; and also, the source of the growth for her regional sister states in Southeast Asia. Hostility to China is by definition hostility to a real, inflation adjusted, expansion of Indonesia, an expansion which, is absolutely necessary to meet the needs of her growing population; and, the economic and political challenges that she faces over the next fifty years.

 愚蠢！中国的钱，市场，领导力和全球势力是印尼长期增长之源，对东南亚其他国家来说也是如此。对中国抱有敌意就是对印尼自身的发展抱有敌意。印尼的经济扩张毫无疑问必须面对不断增长的人口需求，这是它未来50年必须面对的经济和政治挑战.

Indonesia’s choices are exactly none. Stand aloof and be passed by; or, enthusiastically embrace cooperation and consonance; and thereby, equally enjoy the favor of Beijing, as will the other island archipelagoes or Southeast Asia.

 印尼别无选择，什么也别干，让这件事就这么过去。或者全心与中国合作并与之保持一致，以迎合北京，其他群岛国家或者整个东南亚也都将这么做。

Just another alarmist Post news story about nothing.

无非是一条耸人听闻却言之无物的文章。

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Randy Ran
9:02 AM GMT+0800
just another commie troll farting..

又一个TG轮子在放屁。
 
Saikung
8:14 AM GMT+0800
Maybe weak countries like Indonesia DESERVE to lose their sovereignty? Or else, if china's threat becomes really apparent, then they'd probably do something. vote Trump!

 弱国如印尼就该丧失领土主权？如果中国干的太露骨，印尼也许该给它点苦头尝尝。
选票投给川普！
 
Senjata
7:55 AM GMT+0800 [Edited]
Curious analysis from a PhD candidate who apparently studies this issue. The Indonesians seized the fishing vessel and its crew. That's why the Chinese Coast Guard knocked the ship free. The crew is still in Indonesian custody. That the ship wasn't blown to pieces is surprising -- that's the usual fate for any foreign ship fishing in Indonesian waters.

对明显是研究这个问题的准博士来说，这分析太奇怪，印尼扣留渔船和船员，这是中国海警撞击并解救渔船的原因，船员仍在印尼监的监狱中。
船没有被撞成碎片很让人吃惊——要知道，这通常是在印尼海域捕鱼的外国渔船的命运啊！

Meanwhile, Indonesia has begun militarizing the Natuna Islands (http://qz.com/575189/indonesia-will-send-fighter-j... and demarched China on several occasions. Indonesia's increased defense budget is a direct response to the Chinese threat. No military response? No diplomatic response? What does this say about this PhD candidate's literature review?

 与此同时，印尼开始军事化纳土纳群岛(http://qz.com/575189/indonesia-will-send-fighter-j... ），以在多次事故中反制中国。印尼防务预算的增加就是对中国威胁的直接回应。没有军事回应？没有外交回应？这篇准博士的文章能说明什么？

Another PhD candidate, at Australia National University, characterized Jakarta's messaging in a completely different light: http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/breaking-the-silenc...

来自澳大利亚国立大学的另一位准博士，从完全不同的角度解读雅加达透露的信息（http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/breaking-the-silenc...）

Given how Indonesia has aggressively defended its territory in the past (I'm looking at you, Malaysia), I'm more likely to accept this other PhD candidate's thesis.

考虑到印尼在过去为了保护自己的领土而采取的激进措施（我在看你，马来西亚），我更倾向于接受这位准博士的观点。

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Wowmee
7:30 AM GMT+0800
it will be very interesting if those countries affected in the Spratly issue together with Japan, US, Australia, India, UK start sending their ships into the contested area altogether to have the Chinese a taste of their own salami slicing tactic and to keep the Chinese fishermen and navy busy!

 如果这些主权声索国与日本，美国，澳大利亚，英国一道，派遣军舰进入争议区域。中国会品尝苦果而中国渔民和海军将忙于应对！
这就太有意思了！
 
Indeed. 
Just ask the Central American Republics how they reacted to US aggression. Very forcefully. In fact Panama was carved out of Colombia by Teddy R. Why?? Because the big Co's wanted to build the Canal.
Not much has changed, except that on Southeast Asia, there is another bully stronger than China.

只要问问中美洲是怎样应对美国的侵略就知道了，那是相当的激烈！事实上巴拿马就是这样被西奥多·罗斯福从哥伦比亚分裂出去的。要问为什么？ 因为大佬美国想修建巴拿马运河！
除非东南亚有比中国还强大的土霸，不然同样的事情也会在东南亚发生。

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OhNooo
6:40 AM GMT+0800
This will not end well.

这不会有好结果的。
 
Dookie2566
6:27 AM GMT+0800
I can't wait to have WW3 so we can get rid of those pathetic filthy rats

 快点三战吧！这样我们就能消灭这些肮脏的老鼠！
 
mayham
6:09 AM GMT+0800
China’s behavior in the South China Sea is that of a school yard bully.
That might work on small nation but not going to work with US.
They better not bite off more then they can chew. China has far more to lose
then we do.

中国在南海的行为就像是学校里的恶霸，对小国可能有用但对美国没用。
中国吃相最好别太难看，不要超过你们的胃口。不然等我们行动起来，你们就会吐出的更多！

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Saikung
8:15 AM GMT+0800
While that is true, it WILL work with the US if the US keeps staying under Obama's oppression. vote Trump!

 对！但是如果美国继续在奥巴马的压迫之下的话，那么就会对美国产生作用。投票给川普！
 
Shooi Dan Tom
5:37 AM GMT+0800
China has no respect because Chinese have not killed other
races like the white people. If white people are doing what the
Chinese are doing, NO PROBLEMS. White people came all 
the way from Europe, killed the Aborigines and Maoris, and
grabbed the whole continent--in our front yard. NO PROBLEM. We can t let it go like that forever. We have to defend ourselves in our front yard.

中国是值得尊重的国家，因为中国人从没像白人一样屠杀其他种族。 如果白人和中国人做的一样，没有任何问题！
白人从欧洲而来，灭杀土着和毛利人，并镬取了整片大陆——就在我的前院，我们永远也不能忘记，我们必须在我们的前院保卫自己！

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Steve GR
5:39 AM GMT+0800
Huh, crazy talk? How is Indonesia your front yard? I kind of think most people would think.....it was their front yard.

 嘎嘎，疯言疯语？印尼怎么就在你前院啦？大部分都会认为。。这是印尼的前院
 
Crims0nb0nez
5:56 AM GMT+0800
Well, the Chinese Government turned the genocidal Pol Pot into their puppet and invaded Vietnam to bring him back into power. Funny how people in Cambodia are bitter at Vietnam for invading them and overthrowing the monster known as the Khmer Rouge.

中国政府将波尔布特变成自己的傀儡，然后侵略越南并扶植波尔波特上位。有意思的是柬埔寨人因越南入侵并推翻了红色高棉这个恶魔而仇恨越南。
 
Randy Ran
9:06 AM GMT+0800
why do you have to defend yourself when its you whose in the offensive position. creating instability creating troubles in that region, you chinese moron !

为什么印尼必须保卫自己？就因为你——中国站在侵略者的位置上，在区域内制造不稳定，制造麻烦。你个中国白痴！

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Vu Duy Nghia
5:10 AM GMT+0800
One thing about middle kingdom,they respect the power base on the position of strength,these people so idealized that sometimes validation of policies required real actions ,not vocal dancing.

 中央王国只尊重基于自身力量的强权，这些人太理想化了以至于有时不能认识到政治的有效性源于实际行动，而不是口头言辞。
 
Shooi Dan Tom
5:39 AM GMT+0800
Talk about dancing. Vietnamese did not talk like 
that when they were being cooked in orange sauce
in B-52 ovens. Come back to China. We need people who have ways of words.

说到口头言辞，越南人在被B52所投橙剂轰炸时并没有说太多话，在对付中国上，我们需要会说话的人。

Steve GR
5:40 AM GMT+0800
You are vile.

你真无耻！

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Isri Subang
6:50 AM GMT+0800
Shooi Dan Tom has so been cooked with Orange sauce. Confirmed here by itself. Its post is full of Orange sauce.

 Shooi Dan Tom在橙剂做的橙酱里煮过了，已经在这里得到确认！因为他的帖子满是橙剂做的橙酱！
 
jdimaur
4:47 AM GMT+0800
Just remember that Jakarta is a Muslim country and has no love for the United States. Therefore, their options are very limited. Perhaps the Japanese will protect them since they really respect Japan.

 雅加达是穆斯林国家，对美国无感。因此他们的选择相当有限。也许日本人能保护他们因为他们媚日。
 
Shooi Dan Tom
5:40 AM GMT+0800
Japanese are busy trying get islands back from
white people.

 日本人正忙着从白人手里拿回岛礁呢！
 
Crims0nb0nez
5:57 AM GMT+0800
You mean Okinawa and the Kuril islands they lost after WWII?

你说的是他们在2战后失去的冲绳群岛和千岛群岛吗？