中国乘虚而入军用无人机市场 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：old_altar-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



Editor's note: Sarah Kreps is an associate professor of government and adjunct professor of law at Cornell University. She is the author of "Drones: What Everyone Needs to Know." The views expressed are her own.

编者按：莎拉·克雷普斯是康奈尔大学政府治理和法律方面的副教授。她是《无人机：每个人都应该知道的》这本书的作者。本文仅代表她本人观点。

(CNN)The United States has often been criticized for its use of armed drones. But in recent months, a new country has begun drawing attention. And while it has not used armed drones in combat, its increasing willingness to export the technology to other countries has serious implications for combat in the future.

（CNN）美国经常因其使用武装无人机而受到指责。但在最近几个月里，一个新的国家在该方面引起注意。尽管其尚未在实战中使用武装无人机，其与日俱增的向其他国家出口该技术的意愿会对未来战争产生深远影响。

Earlier this year, Nigeria confirmed using a Chinese-made CH-3 in its fight against Boko Haram, while Iraq appears to have used a CH-4 starting late 2015. In addition, Pakistan is now using a platform suspiciously resembling the CH-3, despite official reports that the drone is indigenously produced. (At the least, this probably would have required considerable collaboration from the Chinese and may have been assembled in Pakistan from Chinese-made components). Meanwhile, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are thought to have bought similar drones from China.

今年年初，尼日利亚确认在其对博科圣地的战斗中使用中国制造的CH-3型无人机，而伊朗似乎在2015年年底就开始使用CH-4了。另外，巴基斯坦正使用一款疑似CH-3的无人机平台，尽管巴基斯坦官方声称该无人机是该国自主制造的。（无论如何，这款无人机可能需要与中国的深入合作或者它是将中国制造的部件在巴基斯坦组装而成。）同时，埃及、沙特与阿联酋都被认为已经从中国购买了相似的无人机。

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Why has China sought to increase its prominence in the drone export market?

为什么中国试图增强在无人机领域的显着性？

The answer is not primarily economic. At about $1 million per Wing Loong drone (compared with $30 million for the Reaper, the U.S. counterpart), it would take a lot of drone sales to make a compelling financial case for China.

经济原因不是主要因素。翼龙无人机每年花费一百万美元 （而美国的捕食者无人机单价3000万美元）所以中国得卖出大量的无人机才能赚到钱。 

Instead, the sale of arms is more likely one element in its diplomatic toolkit, giving it an additional way to extend its reach into the Middle East, Latin America and Africa as it builds these security relationships.

反而，军队的购买是更多像是他们外交工作中的一个环节，给予他们去扩大在中亚拉丁美洲和非洲（势力范围）的另类途径，从而与这些国家和地区建立安全关系。

In addition, a large arms market can be seen as a symbol of prestige.

另外，一个规模巨大的武器交易市场也可以是威望的象征。

Much like its space program, which signals China's status as an advanced industrialized country, a global network of drone exports based on its own indigenous military capabilities suggests that China is a force to be reckoned with.

就像其太空计划可以表明中国是一个先进工业化国家一样，基于其自主军事能力而建立的无人机出口的全球网络也表明中国是一个需要被认真对待的国家。

This dynamic becomes a positive feedback loop that helps cultivate its defense base -- the more weapons China sells, the more resources it has to invest in research and development, and the more attractive its defense innovations become to potential importers.

这种动态的过程会形成积极的回馈，帮助中国形成其国防基础——中国卖的武器越多，投入研发的资源就越多，那么其国防创新就越可能受到潜在进口国的青睐。

-------------译者：guntheer-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Whatever the motivation, the drone sales raise the question of how much of an effect this will have on the international security environment.

无论（购买）动机是什么，无人机的销售已经向人们提出了一个问题，那就是这会对国际安全环境产生什么样的影响。

In the short term, despite the relatively widespread sale of Chinese drones, the exports are unlikely to be a game changer.

就目前来说，尽管中国无人机的销售相当普遍，但是中国的这些出口产品并不能成为游戏改变者。

Each of the countries that has used some version of Chinese-made drones has used them in a counterinsurgency context, not to start new wars with neighbors.

某些型号的中国无人机已经在进口国投入使用—镇压叛乱，而非与邻国开战。

These drones are lower-cost, less capable versions of U.S. drones; they fly low and slow, and are unlikely to be especially valuable against any adversary other than an insurgency that lacks robust air defenses.

 这些无人机相对于美国的而言，成本更低性能更低，它们飞得低也飞得慢，并不能对敌人创成重创，只能用来对付没有强大防空能力的叛乱分子。
But looking ahead -- if the technology improves, and these countries start acquiring next-generation stealth drones -- the calculus could change.

但长远来看，如果技术提升，并且这些国家开始获得新一代的隐形无人机的话，那么结果将会不一样。

Such technology could change these states' war-making calculus and lower the threshold for using force across borders.

这类技术将会改变这些国家的作战方式，降低了武力穿越边境的门槛。

If this happens, the consequences would be destabilizing, especially in regions where border disputes already mean frosty ties.

如果不幸言中，后果将是破坏性的，尤其是在某些区域，边界纠纷已经意味着冰冻的两国关系。

 -------------译者：guntheer-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Where the increased drone sales are more worrisome, though, is how they contribute to a "cheap but good enough" trend, with China as a major supplier.

然而，随着中国成为主要供应商，无人机销量的增加令人更加焦虑的是，他们已经给人留下了“便宜又好用”的印象。

What that means in practice is some countries that might not have been able to afford certain technologies from Europe, the United States, or Russia -- or that would not have been allowed to purchase them from the Europeans or the United States -- now have access to weapons.

这实际上中意味着那些可能买不起欧美或者俄罗斯的某些技术（或被欧美禁售）的国家，现在拥有了武器。

The infusion of drones into some of these countries and their disputes could be like throwing gasoline on a fire.

无人机的流入对于这些国家间的争端无异于火上浇油。

However, China's exports don't affect only its customers -- there are also implications for the United States' own export policies.

然而，中国的出口不仅仅会影响他自己的客户，还会影响到美国自己的出口政策。

-------------译者：woshixkcdtc-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

As a founding member of the Missile Technology Control Regime, or MTCR, which regulates the international transfer of drones, the United States has tended to have relatively strict export policies when it comes to drones. For example, it has exported armed Reapers only to its close ally, the United Kingdom, and more recently announced that it would arm Italy's Reapers. China, in contrast, is not a member of the MTCR, and recent export patterns suggest that it is willing to flout the types of restrictions that the United States not only helped establish, but has tended to reinforce.

作为导弹及其技术控制制度(MTCR)创立成员之一，该机构监管着国际无人机交易，美国针对无人机领域已经开始有意执行相对严格的出口政策。例如，美国的武装收割者只对其亲近的盟友出售，即英国，最近又宣布说将给意大利提供收割者。比较起来，中国不是MTCR成员，从中国目前的出口模式来看，中国有意打破美国帮忙建立并意图强化的限制措施。

This is not an argument for a race to the bottom in which the United States, China, and Israel (which has its own thriving drone industry) adopt increasingly aggressive export policies. Quite the opposite. And China did last year gesture toward greater restrictions on its drone exports. Yet there has been little evidence to suggest that it is following through when it comes to the types of drones that have increasingly appeared in other states' arsenals.

这并不是说中国，美国和以色列（以色列拥有繁荣的无人机产业）要通过采取积极的出口政策来达到逐底竞争的效果。而是恰恰相反。中国去年表示称将对无人机出口进行更多的限制。然而其他国家所出现的中国无人机表明了中国并没有说到做到。

 -------------译者：guntheer-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

How should the United States respond? It would be well served trying to co-opt China into international governance on the transfer of armed drones. Upon first blush, the U.S. might be a hypocritical choice to integrate China, given criticism of the United States' own drone policies. But this also makes it exactly the right choice -- it has been the most dominant and influential country when it comes to armed drones.

美国该如何应对？最好是尽力把中国拉拢到对武装无人机的国际管理中来。乍看之下，考虑到美国自己的无人机政策正受到批评，所以将中国纳入可能会被视为虚伪的选择。但由于美国一直以来都是武装无人机方面最有影响力的主导国家，所以这也是一个正确的选择。

In the case of drones, the expectation would be that involvement in the MTCR and other relevant arms control institutions could help limit the sale of arms to unsavory parties and control how those recipients use the technology. China did officially apply for MTCR membership in 2004, but was ultimately rebuffed over suspicions that it was providing North Korea with sensitive missile technology.

可以让中国参与到导弹技术控制制度以及其他相关的武器控制机构中来，从而控制武器的销售以及销售后武器的使用。中国在2004年的时候申请成为导弹技术控制制度的成员，但是由于当时怀疑中国向朝鲜提供敏感的导弹技术，所以中国的申请被断然拒绝了。

Ultimately, however China decides to proceed, developments in recent months have already made one thing clear: U.S. drone use may have made the headlines in the last decade, but much of the action in the next 10 years is likely to reside elsewhere.

最后，不论中国决定以何种方式向前进，最近几个月的发展情况也让一件事清晰起来：在过去十年，美国是无人机使用的主角，但在下一个十年，舞台貌似要换地方了。


-------------译者：原木易朽-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Sidney Sridhar 6 hours ago
In a world where borders have no meaning(Middle east) and so may terrorist groups who are not regular armies, supply of cheap drones will make it impossible for any nation to remain safe and stable.

全球有许多无法划定边界的地方（特别是中东），那里活跃着由非法军队组成的恐怖分子，向他们提供廉价无人机会导致这些国家永无宁日。

All this is so worrisome because ISIL etal do not play by rules and the availability of drones makes International rules and nation sovereignity meaningless

伊斯兰国让这变得惶恐不安，他们会进行非法活动，一旦他们用上这些具备破坏力的无人机就会威胁国际规则和国家主权。

GE0RGi29ch1nk0v 8 hours ago
I WILL ASK DRAGHI , JUNC KER , YELLEN AND EU AND USA MINISTERS AND THEIR INTELLIGENCE SERVICES NOT TO ENDANGER THE HEALTH OR LIFE OF MY RELATIVES IN ANY FORM.

我会问候德拉杰，容克，耶伦，还有欧洲和美国的情报部门的部长们，别用任何方式害了我家亲戚！！
 
GE0RGi29ch1nk0v 9 hours ago
YOUR SERVICES ARE FAMOUS TO HAVE SUCH CAPABILITIES AND THERE ARE NO SUCH COINCIDENCES IN THIS WORLD.

你们的情报机构就是以拥有这种能力闻名的，而且不是出于巧合。

-------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

GE0RGi29ch1nk0v 9 hours ago
DO NOT ENDANGER MY HUMAN AND PROPERTY RIGHTS.

别威胁我的人权和财产权。

GE0RGi29ch1nk0v 9 hours ago
I OBVIOUSLY REVEAL INFORMATION AND DATA THAT YOU DO NOT LIKE. THOUGH USA AND EU COMPANIES AND WEALTHY PEOPLE HOLD A LOT OF BUYBACK SHARES - DUE TO NO GROWTH OR SECULAR RECESSION LIKE JAPAN FOR OVER 10 YEARS , THERE WILL BE NO GROWTH AND PROBABLY INFLATION. YOU ARE LOSING COMPETITIVENESS. ORDINARY PEOPLE WILL NOT PAY YOUR LIFE IF THEY ARE NOT IRRATIONALLY EXUBERANT.
FOLLOW MY CASE AT INTERNET INTENSIVELY – FIND ALL MY POST THE CHANGED FINANCIAL MARKETS AND ECONOMY AND SHARE.

很明显我揭露了你们不太愿意看见的信息和数据。虽然欧美公司以及富人们握有很多回购股票---由于缺乏增长与像日本一样长达10年的长期衰退，经济增长不会再出现甚至可能通货膨胀。你们正在失去竞争力。普通人如果不是陷入了非理性繁荣的漩涡，根本就不会为你们的生活买单。
在网上密切关注我的动向——找到所有我的帖子，变化的金融市场、经济和股市。

-------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

GE0RGi29ch1nk0v 8 hours ago
IF ROBBING OF MY BROTHER APARTMENT FEW DAY AGO IS ALSO OCCASIONAL ?
DO NOT ENDANGER MY RELATIVES OR MY OR THEIR HUMAN AND PROPERTY RIGHTS.
IF DRAGHI, COEURE , YELLEN, CHRISTINE LAGARDE INTEND TO REVENGE ME FOR CRITICAL MATERIAL OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ?
DOES YELLEN AND DRAGHI AIM FOR A NEW BUBBLE – ARE THEY GOING TO FALSIFY DATA FOR TRILLION BUYBACK THEY HAD?
WHAT IS THE CONTRIBUTION OF CHINA AND ASIA DECLINE OF EXPORT LAST MONTH AND THERE IS NO MUCH BUDGET STIMULUS AND MONETARY EFFECTS – ARE THEY READY TO TAKE THE LEGAL CONSEQUENCES IF FALSIFYING THE DATA IS SHOWN ? CHECK BACKWARDS AND FOLLOW FROM NOW ONWARDS THE DATA VERY CAREFULLY !
DOES BANKS BUY THEIR OWN OR OTHER SHARES TO SUPPORT THE PRICES AND RISK LIQUIDITY

如果我兄弟的公寓几天前遭强盗了这也是偶然的吗？
别将我和我亲戚们的人权和财产权置于危险之中。
如果德拉吉、科尔、耶伦、拉加德要因为我对他们经济分析的批判而报复我呢？
是否耶伦和德拉吉正在瞄准一个新泡沫——他们是否要为了他们手中数万亿的回购股权伪造数据？
中国及整个亚洲上个月出口的减少产生了什么影响？现在已经没有多少财政刺激计划和货币效应的影响了——他们真的准备好承担数据伪造被揭露的法律后果了吗？检查一下以前的数据然后从现在开始仔细跟踪将来的数据。
银行是否在买他们自己或其他的股票来支撑价格并在流动性上冒险？

 -------------译者：mowgly-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

GE0RGi29ch1nk0v 8 hours ago
IF ROBBING OF MY BROTHER APARTMENT FEW DAY AGO IS ALSO OCCASIONAL ?
DO NOT ENDANGER MY RELATIVES OR MY OR THEIR HUMAN AND PROPERTY RIGHTS.
IF DRAGHI, COEURE , YELLEN, CHRISTINE LAGARDE INTEND TO REVENGE ME FOR CRITICAL MATERIAL OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ?
DOES YELLEN AND DRAGHI AIM FOR A NEW BUBBLE – ARE THEY GOING TO FALSIFY DATA FOR TRILLION BUYBACK THEY HAD?
WHAT IS THE CONTRIBUTION OF CHINA AND ASIA DECLINE OF EXPORT LAST MONTH AND THERE IS NO MUCH BUDGET STIMULUS AND MONETARY EFFECTS – ARE THEY READY TO TAKE THE LEGAL CONSEQUENCES IF FALSIFYING THE DATA IS SHOWN ? CHECK BACKWARDS AND FOLLOW FROM NOW ONWARDS THE DATA VERY CAREFULLY !
DOES BANKS BUY THEIR OWN OR OTHER SHARES TO SUPPORT THE PRICES AND RISK LIQUIDITY

是否我兄弟的公寓几天前的抢劫也是偶然的吗？
不要危害我的亲戚或者我的或者他们的人，也不要危害我们的财产。
是否DRAGHI, COEURE , YELLEN, CHRISTINE LAGARDE想要为经济分析的关键材料而报复我？
是否YELLEN AND DRAGHI瞄准了一个新气泡---他们是否将要为他们上万亿的回购合同篡改数据？
中国和亚洲上个月出口趋于衰退的原因是什么？这根本没有大量预算刺激计划和金融影响---如果发表的数据被篡改，他们已经准备好去接受法律后果了吗？往回检查一下并且从现在开始数据非常小心谨慎！
银行购买了他们自己的或者别人的股份来支持股价了吗？这同时又在危及流动性。