中国军力激增，欲比肩美国 [美国媒体]

Opinion: China's military is gearing up tocompete with the U.S.

中国军力激增，欲比肩美国

By Yvonne Chiu    作者: By Yvonne Chiu
翻译:上杭纯曦

Updated 0206 GMT (1006 HKT) March 10, 2016

此文发表于2016年3月10日



Yvonne Chiu is an assistantprofessor at The University of Hong Kong specializing in China's military anddiplomacy. The views expressed here are solely her's.

Yvonne Chiu是香港大学专业研究中国军事和外交的助理教授，此文是她的个人观点。

Hong Kong (CNN)China's military is sending strong signals that it'sgearing up to compete with the U.S. as a global superpower, engaging in amulti-faceted reform effort to modernize and professionalize its military.

香港（美联社）中国军队正在进行一系列改革，努力实现军队的现代化和专业化。这向世界发出了一个强烈的信号：中国军力将激烈膨胀成为一个全球性的超级力量，与美国一试高低。

One of the most significant developments is China'splans to establish an overseas military base—which would be contemporaryChina's first—in Djibouti. Construction started last month.

其中最引人注目的变化是中国计划在海外建立一个军事基地。该基地位于非洲吉布提，上个月破土动工。这是中国第一个在外国建立的基地。

There has been some speculation that China negotiated a 10-yearcontract, although China will not confirm details for what it carefully calls"military support facilities."

有传闻说中国（与吉布提）签订了十年使用合同。当然中国不会公开其中的细节，只是声称这是一个军队后勤设施。

The stated purpose is to provide "betterlogistics and safeguard Chinese peacekeeping forces in the Gulf of Aden,offshore Somalia and other humanitarian assistance tasks of the U.N."including anti-piracy missions, according to Ministry of National Defensespokesman Wu Qian.

中国外交部发言人吴全说，基地是为了：“和确保中国在亚当湾、萦马理海岸的维和部队的安全及包括反恐在内的联合国人道救援任务的胜利进行并为其更好地提供后勤支持。”

China's new base will be near the only U.S. militarybase in Africa, also in Djibouti.

中国的新基地将位于美国在非洲的唯一军事基地的附近，也在吉布提。

It is an extremely strategic location and would offergreater ability to protect oil shipments from and give greater access to theArabian Peninsula.

这是一个极具战略意义的位置，能够很好的保护石油运输线，并使（中国）的军力延伸到阿拉伯半岛。



China announced Saturday that its military budget would grow by7.6% in 2016 -- slower than the double-digit increases in previous years ---but the real increase will likely be much higher.

中国于星期六宣布2016年的军费开支将增长7.6%,这虽然低于前几年两位数的增长，但是，真实的数字可能大的多。

Its announced 300,000troop reduction in September ata massive military parade initially seemed to be about trimming a littledeadweight, as the People's Liberation Army would still be over two-millionstrong, but there are recent indications that cuts will target the officercorps—including political officers.

（去年）九月，在一次大型阅兵仪式上，中国宣布裁军30万。当时似乎是打算裁撤一些冗员，但是现在，有迹象表明，裁员的目标指向军队官员，包括做政治思想类的军官。

This is part of a broader transformation program overthe next two years to restructure the military.

这是相比于前两年军队重组的更加广泛的军改工程的一部分。

In February, the seven military command regions were streamlined intofive (north, south,east, west, central); some agencies governing armaments, logistics, personnel,and politics have been placed directly under the authority of the ChineseCommunist Party's Central Military Commission.

二月份，原七大军区被精减为五个（东、西、南、北、中），有些分管武器、后勤、人事和政治的机构改为由中央军委的直接管理。

And there are ongoing efforts to turn the PLA from amilitary dominated by the army to one that better integrates ground forces withthe now-peripheral navy, air force, and missile (PLA Rocket Force) units, intojoint command operations.

中国也正在努力打造一个使地面部队和海军、空军、导弹部队能协同作战的联合指挥系统，摒弃过去由陆军主导的做法。

These are efforts to not only upgrade the military'sefficacy but also to bring to bear more Party control over the PLA, which has been moreautonomous in the past.

它的目标不但要提高军队的效率，而且也要加强中共对军队的控制，因为过去一段时间里，中央对军队的控制有所减弱。



In nearly doubling its weapons sales during this decadeso far, China hasbecome the world's third-largest weapons exporter behind the U.S. and Russia,and last month, it displayed its older J-10 fighter jet at the Singapore Airshow in order to sell it.

在过去的十年里，中国对外武器销售量增加了一倍，成为仅次于美国、俄罗斯之后的第三大武器出口国。上个月，它在新加坡航展上展示了旧式的J-10战斗机，以图出售这类战斗机。

(Potential buyers might include Pakistan, Iran, orSyria, although this is speculative.)

（潜在的买家可以包括巴基斯坦、伊朗和叙利亚，当然，这只是一个推测。）

Being able to sell weapons is not only a source ofrevenue, but also a sign of military influence and global leadership, and canhelp bolster political alliances.

出售武器不仅可以带来收入，而且是军事影响力和全球领导力的象征，而且有助于政治联盟的发展。

China also acquired its first aircraft carrier by retrofittingan incomplete former-Soviet carrier, and had its firstsuccessful carrier-based fighter (J-15) landing in 2012. it is alsotrying to build its second carrier indigenously.

中国也通过改造前苏联未完成的航空母舰，拥有了第一艘航空母舰，并于2012年成功进行了第一次战机（J-15）着舰训练。同时，中国也正在建造第二艘航空母舰，这次是自主研制的。

This is commonly taken as an indication that it willdevelop a blue-water navy (one capable of operating across open oceans), whichat the time of its aircraft carrier purchase seemed less plausible, but mustnow be reconsidered in light of institutional restructuring to enable jointforce command.

这被外界普遍认为是中国将发展蓝水海军（有能力在远洋执行任务的海军）的风向标。而当时，支持发展航空母舰的人不多，但是现在，发展航空母舰被认为有利于军队机构改革和实行联合作战指挥。

The PLA has until recently focused on protectingChina's own borders, in part because, ideologically, China has rejectedactivities (especially maintaining overseas military bases) that it considersfascist or imperialist.

解放军最近才一直在关注边境问题，部分由于意识形态的原因，中国一直反对它称之为法西斯主义或帝国主义的行为（特别是在海外保持军事基地）。

Efforts to restore and reclaim China's rightfulstanding in the world also serve a domestic purpose and they have alsounwittingly become one of the benchmarks for the Party's legitimacy, insofar asit is able to deliver on the nationalist flames it fans.

重提中国在国际事务中的正义立场也可以为国内政治服务，当然也可以加强共产党统治的合法性，在一定程度上迎合了它自己煸动起来的民族主义。

Taken together, do these developments belie China'sclaim of pursuing a "peaceful rise?" Yes and no. Clearly, China wantsto compete with the U.S. and not just in the Asia-Pacific.

这些举动会和中国声称的“和平崛起”背道而驰吗？不管如何，有一点可以明确，中国不仅仅要和美国在亚太地区一试高低。

It has started doing so regionally by laying claim tothe South China Sea and building"islands" inorder to test international reactions to its attempts to extend its sovereignterritory.

中国通过声索南中国海主权和在南海“建岛”来测试国际社会对自己扩充主权的反应。

Future long-range capabilities that will be affordedby joint operational command, aircraft carriers, and overseas bases, however,unmistakably indicate that China intends to be a global superpower one day.

联合作战能力的提升，航空母舰的出现与及海外军事基地的建立将提高中国的远程打击能力，这些信号明确表明中国将成为一个全球性的超级大国。

This doesn't mean that China wants a conflict ineither the South or East China Seas. It would likely lose against mostsignificant enemies in the near future, especially the U.S.

但这并不意味着中国有意愿在南海或东海打仗。在不远的将来和世界上最强在的敌人，特别是美国交手，中国很有可输掉战争。

China has not fought a war since 1979, and acontemporary war would require very different practices from those used inVietnam. In the meantime, a significant military loss would call into questionthe very legitimacy of the Party and have enormous consequences for itslongevity.

中国军队自从1979年以来没有打过仗，现代战争的方式和当年的越战大不相同。同时，任何军事上的重大挫折都会降低共产党统治的合法性,也会给它的长治久安带来严重的后果。

A "peaceful rise" is clearly prudential: theParty would like China to become a global superpower without ever fighting awar, but it is walking a dangerous line.

“和平崛起”无疑是明智的选择,中国共产党希望中国不费一枪一弹就成为超级大国,但是中国(的所作所为表明)的确走在一条危险的边缘上。