美：北京的南海“造地”会使其失去和平吗？ [美国媒体]

-------------译者：jiangfengcyh-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



China's leadership faces difficult decisions in the South China Sea. China is at some risk of achieving what it sees as a military success at the price of losing the peace.

在南海问题上中国的领导层面临着艰难的抉择，中国处于某种风险，即是牺牲和平来换取军事上的胜利。

There is increasing evidence that its land creation (for they are not 'reclamation') activities in the South China Sea are developing a network of bases that will support fixed sensors, such as radars and underwater arrays, as well as the operations of air and seaborne surveillance units.

中国在南海的造地活动正逐步建构一个固定传感器基础网络，如雷达、水下阵列，还有海空航运监视单元等，这一点越来越明确。

The cumulative effect intended by Chinese planners appears to be to make it too dangerous during a conflict for other nations, most notably the US, to conduct significant military operations in the area, whether on, under or over the South China Sea; and certainly to make sure that none will go undetected in peacetime.

中国的这些举动貌似就是为了要在冲突期间遏制其他国家在该地区展开实质性的军事行动，尤其是美国，同时也确保了在和平时期监测进入该地区的任何国家。


-------------译者：mowgly-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Randal
A good argument for China behaving moderately in its own interests. If only the US regime would limit its intrusion into matters that are no business of its own to giving such good advice, rather than actively seeking to foment trouble for China with its neighbours, and generally behaving in a way that results in China rightly seeing US activity and military power as a genuine threat that requires a defensive response.
Of course, America-uber-alles types are constitutionally unable to accept that any country other than the US is entitled to respond to such perceived threats, even when they are as well founded as those that recognise the US as a serial military aggressor with a track record of claiming ideological differences as a justification and pretext for its own aggression.
"China's goal is to be able to regard the sea areas south of Hainan Island as a safe haven for its naval forces,particularly its submarines"
Imagine! The sheer cheek of any modern state even thinking it is allowed to have effective defences against potential US aggression, let alone acting on such a rogue notion.

关于中国在自己的利益行为处事温和上，这真是一个好观点。如果美国统治者能不去干涉与自己无关的事情并限制自己给别人建议的话就好了，更不用说积极寻求去酝酿中国与邻国的麻烦，通常这样的行为当然导致中国得把美国的行为和军事力量视作真正的威胁，这需要在军事防务上进行反制。
当然，美国霸权至上的心理本质上不能接受任何一个不是美国的国家来对付这些可以觉察的威胁，甚至当他们是和那些国家一样已经认识到美国是一个劣迹斑斑的军事入侵惯犯，它常常以意识形态不同作为证据和借口来掩饰自己的侵略行为。
中国的目标是能够把海南岛以南的海域作为自己海军力量安全的天堂，特别是它的潜艇。
设想一下吧，任何一个现代国家都不会不顾虑自己的脸面而放弃做有效的军事防御来对抗美国潜在的军事入侵，更不用说执行这样一个肮脏的念头。

-------------译者：jiangfengcyh-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Alejandro 
The moment that chinese began dumping sand on the shoal the peace are already gone! It replaced by anxiety and fear among the neighborhood that someday the middle kingdom will impose his fabricated sovereignty over the vast of SCS all the way to the coastal water of the surrounding nation.

中国将砂石倾倒到浅滩的那一刻起，和平已经不再了！取而代之的是周围国家的紧张和恐惧。他们担心有一天中国会对广袤的南海通往周围国家的所有海上通道宣誓无中生有的主权。

Just here to comment
The moment they dumped the sand, the aquatic ecosystem in the area was ruined. Sucks to be a fish.

他们（中国）倾倒砂石的那一刻，这片区域的水生态已经被毁坏了，下辈子不要做一条鱼。

纵横
Nobody will be fooled by you except for those s t u p i d ones. Philipine started to build islands on China owned territory or reefs in SCS long before China built any island!!

没有人会被你忽悠的，除非是那些傻！蛋！，在中国建造任何海岛的很久以前，菲律宾就已经在中国南海的领土、海礁上建设岛屿了！！

-------------译者：mowgly-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Alejandro 
The whole SCS is not Chinese territorial water ever since, even since the beginning of time except for those water near in your coastal water and dont start to recite any treaty like a broken recorder because nobody recognized that treaty was intended for chinese to owning the whole SCS. Philippines are not building island over a reef its just china who build island over a reef in a unprecedented speed and size with malicious intent.

整个南中国海从来不说中国的领海，自从时间开始以来，除了你们沿海的水域。不要再象坏唱片机一样不断重复提什么谈判，因为没有人会承认那些旨在接受中国拥有整个南中国海的谈判。菲律宾没有在一个礁石上建岛，而正是中国以前所未有的速度和巨大的野心在礁石上建岛。

纵横
We never claim the whole SCS is our territorial sea, we never did that. We claim those Islands and reefs are ours.

我们从来没有宣称整个南中国海是我们的领海，从来没有。我们宣称岛礁是我们的。

纵横
Did you build islands before China started to do so?

你们在中国开始这样干之前建过岛吗？

-------------译者：mowgly-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Fre Okin
" this slowly ticking time bomb."
This time bomb is the making of the US. Can anybody explain why China should not take Defensive Measures against US submarines? The world should wake up to the vulgar US behavior, creating an Existential Threat to China with subs Lurking Under The Sea, Very Near to Hainan. A couple of Ohio boomers went to SCS over a year ago to test drive the area and to intimidate China.
Possible places are just to the East of Bashi Channel and areas around the Palawan, thus the importance of Subi/Mischief Reefs and even Scarborough Shoal. This is why USN is very active doing FONOP there hoping to drive the Chinese away.
There should be a UN resolution to BAN subs from operating in the SCS and vicinity, Especially Nuclear subs from US. Any war will result in a potential Nuclear Radiation Leak if the US subs nuclear reactors are hit by Chinese crab torpedoes.

“定时炸弹慢慢滴答响”
美国已经做好了这个定时炸弹。有人可以解释为什么中国不能采取军事行动对抗美国的潜艇吗？世界应该觉醒过来恶心美国的所作所为了，它用潜伏在海里的潜艇来制造存在的威胁针对中国，非常靠近海南。一对来自俄亥俄州的轰炸机飞行员超过一年以前来过南中国海试航并威胁中国。
可能的地方就在巴士海峡以东和巴拉望岛沿海，因此渚碧礁/美济礁甚至黄岩岛非常重要。这就是为什么美国海军积极的在该地区执行“航海自由行动”并希望驱逐中国人离开。
应该由联合国解决方案来禁止潜艇在南中国海和附近地区的行动，特别是来自美国的核潜艇。如果美国潜艇核反应堆被中国的蟹式鱼雷击中，任何战争都将导致潜在的核辐射泄漏。

-------------译者：mowgly-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Bankotsu
China doesn't wage wars of aggression, instigate chaos, back coups or destroy countries, how would China "lose the peace"?

中国没有实行侵略战争，或试图造成混乱，或在别国实施政变摧毁别国，中国怎么会“破坏和平”呢？

老三
Your question showed to us you did not understand the author's paper. You are ignorant of so many things and strangely you keep commenting on each.

你的质疑向我们表明你没有理解作者的文章。你很无知，可是又喜欢发表看法。

Just here to comment
This might explain why Beijing keeps asking other countries to promote peace and stability in the region. China keeps losing it.

这可能解释了为什么北京坚持要求别的国家改善该地区的和平和稳定。而中国坚持破坏它们。

-------------译者：mowgly-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

soma
One thing I agree with the author in the article is the idea of "Share". China should starting to share resources in the SCS with friendly countries. Nevertheless China has been long promoting the idea of co-development. It is time, begin with China's friends such as Brunei at first. Can incl. other non-claimant ASEAN members as well. Joint company to explore petro within the entire 9-dash line. Tighten the control, more coast guard ships; gradually will win over the hearts and minds of others in order to to join the exploration. Money talks. 

我同意文章中作者提到的一个观点“分享”。中国应该开始和友好国家分享在南中国海的资源。然而中国已经很长的时间就提出共同开发的看法。是时候了，可以从中国的友邦比如文莱开始，也可以包括其他非宣称主权的亚太国家。建立合资公司在9段线内开发石油。加紧控制，更多的海岸卫队船只；渐渐地赢得别国的心理来加入到开发中，让金钱来说话。

bankster
There will not be any war in the South China Sea. No one wants to fire the first shot and start a war.

在南中国海再也不会有任何战争。没有人想开第一枪并引发一场战争。

-------------译者：mowgly-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Yadayadayada!
It will be quick air and naval engagement and china will back down. china will not escalate because they rather stay in power. That is what the CCP cares the most.

肯定是速战速决，然后中国让步。中国不会升级态势的，因为他们更想握住权力。这就是中国TG最在意的。

Frank Blangeard
Yes, and 'the troops will be home by Christmas'. That's the line that warmongers use to lure people into war. 'It will be a cakewalk'. 'They will welcome us as liberators'. 'God is on our side'.

是的，“军队会在圣诞节前回家的”。这就是战争贩子用来引诱人们上战场的话。“这就象走秀一样简单”。“他们会象欢迎解放者一样欢迎我们”。“上帝是在我们这边”

Frank Blangeard
Wait. Hillary may be coming to power.

等等，希拉里可能将要掌权。

-------------译者：mowgly-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Lichdar
Relatively certain that some finesse will indeed be coming. China tends to plan several years ahead - the governing style allows them to have a rough plan which they can deviate from, while still maintaining focus. So the islands will likely remain, and to some extent, so as long as the US is continued to be provoked into spending money in an arms race, I believe its also their goal as they feel the economic war is in their favor.

相对可以肯定的是一些手腕将会到来。中国习惯于提前几年的时间规划---统治风格让他们可以制定一个粗糙的计划，他们可以偏离它，然而仍旧可以保持专注。因此这些岛屿未来将很可能会保留，某种程度上说，只要美国继续被鼓励投入金钱在军备竞赛中，我相信这也是他们的目标，因为他们认为经济战有利于他们。