美国有大麻烦？中国舰艇2020年将达351艘 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：宁不凡-审核者：rumor四起------------



Ongoing U.S.-China tensions in the South China Sea regarding Chinese artificial island-building are leading many at the Pentagon to sharpen their focus upon the rapid pace of Chinese Naval modernization and expansion. 

由于在南海的中国人工岛礁建设引起美国与中国持续紧张，使五角大楼的许多人瞪大眼睛关注中国海军快速的现代化建设和扩张。

While Chinese naval technology may still be substantially behind current U.S. platforms, the equation could change dramatically over the next several decades because the Chinese are reportedly working on a handful of high-tech next-generation ships, weapons and naval systems.

虽然中国的海军技术仍然大幅落后于目前美国的平台，但这种局势在未来几十年可能会发生巨大的改变，因为据各种报道，中国人正在努力研发一大批下一代拥有高科技的舰艇、武器和海军系统。

China has plans to grow its navy to 351 ships by 2020 as the Chinese continue to develop their military’s ability to strike global targets, according to a recent Congressional report. 

根据最近的一份国会报告，随着中国持续发展其全球打击能力，中国计划在2020年将其海军的船增加到351艘。


-------------译者：宁不凡-审核者：rumor四起------------

adam • 13 hours ago
This article has a clearly trying to fear monger without much substance.
"China Plans 351 Ships by 2020"
"the equation could change dramatically over the next several decades"
Anything COULD happen in the next several decades, that doesn't mean it will. The US could implode or the world could be destroyed by nuclear war, famine or some natural disaster.
The only certain thing right now is that China's Navy is no where near as strong as the US Navy. In fact the rest of the worlds surface ships combined wouldn't be as strong as the US.
Missiles, Subs and aircraft are a far better weapon against the US surface fleet than other surface vessels.

这篇文章毫无干货只是赤裸裸的传播恐惧。
“中国计划在2020拥有351艘舰船”
“这种局势在未来几十年可能会发生巨大的改变”
在未来的几十年里，任何事情都可能发生，这并不意味着它将要发生。美国可能会崩溃或者世界可能被核战争、饥荒或自然灾害毁灭。
现在唯一确定的是，中国的海军并没有像美国海军那样强大。事实上，世界上其他的所有水面舰艇加起来也没有美国海军那样强大。
导弹、潜艇和飞机这些武器相对于其他水面舰艇，更适合用于对抗美国水面舰队。

 -------------译者：724519871-审核者：rumor四起------------

Lichdar  adam • 10 hours ago
Asteroid could strike the world in the next several decades.
 
未来几十年内可能有小行星可撞击地球。
 
theThinker  Lichdar • 7 hours ago
Don't worry, the USN Aegis is tracking them... from here.
:)
 
不要担心，美国“宙斯盾”驱逐舰正在追踪它们……从这里
 
marley  adam • an hour ago
better than prepared, chinese people are not to trusted, if they think/have the the advantage they will be time worst than russia and ISIS combined.....
 
最好有所准备，中国人不可信，这如果他们认为自己拥有优势或者已经拥有了优势，那么中国会比俄罗斯和ISIS加起来都更坏。
 
Hung Chinoy  adam • 9 hours ago
Best case scenario, Chinese Communist Party collapses, replaced by a liberal democracy (not a dictatorship masquerading as one). In recent history, I know not of any two countries going to war against each other, where both countries are liberal democracies. It always involves a dictator vs. a democracy or two dictators against each other.

最好的情况是，中国TG崩溃，自由民主政治取而代之（不是独裁政权伪装的那种）。最近的历史，据我所知没有两个自由民主政权彼此间发动战争.总是一个毒菜国家和一个民主国家或者两个毒菜国家之间开战。

 -------------译者：724519871-审核者：rumor四起------------

theThinker  Hung Chinoy • 7 hours ago
Let's hope that war is not any part of a future.

祈祷未来不要发生战争
 
My hope is that the new competition is in space exploitation, and that much of the $ going into ground forces and ICBMs gets spent instead on the economic exploitation and colonization of space.
 
我希望竞争在宇宙探索上，希望花在地面部队和洲际导弹上的资金可以花在经济开发和太空殖民上。
 
Joseph Tan  adam • 12 hours ago
The number does not make a different to US in an all out war.

全面战争中，数量对美国意义不大。
 
True. A war mongering article seeking more funds for her military complex when US infrastructure is cranky. A H2SO4 laden train derailed near DC causing a slight panic.

这篇兜售战争的文章正为军火企业索取更多的资金，而美国的基础设施正在摇摇晃晃。一辆装着硫酸的火车在哥伦毕亚特区脱轨了，引起了一些恐慌。

-------------译者：maggicqueen99-审核者：rumor四起------------

marley  Joseph Tan • 38 minutes ago
chinese have the best infrastructure, no poor to worry, all chinese are rich, they don't get involved on illegal activities, FRAUD, MONEY LAUNDERING, HUMAN TRAFFICKING, KIDNAPING, STEALING OTHER COUNTRIES SOVEREIGN TERRITORIES, BUSINESS, INDUSTRIAL AND MILITARY CLASSIFIED INFORMATION, PANAMA PAPERS, YOUR BELOVED BROTHER IN LAW.....oh almost is the place to live, w/ fresh air, water, very rich land, got a private pool (south/east china sea) no smog to worry..
there are more, but i will have you the previlege to add what i have forgotten.

中国人有最好的基础设施，不用担心穷人，所有的中国人都是富人，他们不会卷入非法活动，比如：诈骗、洗钱、贩卖人口、绑架、偷窃其他国家的主权领土、偷窃商业、工业和军事机密的信息、巴拿马文件和你心爱的大舅子......几乎就是宜居之地，空气清新，饮水干净，土地非常肥沃，有私人澡堂子（南海/东海），不用担心雾霾......
还有更多，但我已经给你授权，你可以把我忘记的东西加到这个单子上。

theThinker  Joseph Tan • 7 hours ago
There wouldn't be an "all out war" in the sense that millions of Americans would enlist, our military would be built up, and invade China.
Instead, they would fire a shot, we would fire a shot, the diplomats would argue, forces would be brought to the conflict area, and either the diplomats win or else a spasm of fire would last for a day or maybe a week and then that's it.

不会发生数以百万计的美国人参军、组建军队进攻中国这种意义上的“全面战争”。 
与之相反，实际发生的情形可能就是：你开一枪，我开一枪，外交官们吵个不停，部队开进到冲突地区，然后要么通过外交取得胜利，要么突发持续一天或者一周的小规模战斗，仅此而已了。

-------------译者：maggicqueen99-审核者：rumor四起------------

grumpy_carpenter  theThinker • 7 hours ago
That's wishful thinking. Human beings are optimists. Countries rarely go to war with the intention of starting a worldwide conflict however wars seldom go as planned. Look at how the world stumbled into WW1 over an assassination all due to treaties and the USA never intended to wage an eight year war costing a trillion dollars in Iraq in 2003 but it happened despite the best planning and intentions and the ramifications of that war may yet yield a third world war.

这只是一厢情愿。人类是乐观主义者。国与国之间很少有爆发全球性冲突的意愿，然而战争却很少按计划进行。回顾一下因为条约纠纷导致一次暗杀事件，然后全世界陷入了第一次世界大战，2003年，美国也从未打算在伊拉克陷入一场持续8年耗费一万亿美元的战争，但是尽管有最好的计划和意愿，战争还是发生了,而且其后遗症可能还会引发第三次世界大战。
 
The more likely scenario in a conflict between near peers in the age of supersonic missiles and aircraft is someone fires a shot, the other side retaliates and both sides go on alert until one side or the other panics and fires a salvo then there's no turning back. The second country to take out the other sides communications and satellites loses everything. Trigger fingers will be itchy when you only have minutes to react or lose everything.

在超音速导弹和飞行器盛行的年代，国与国之间的冲突最可能的场景可能是：一方开火，另一方回击，双方戒备森严，直到一方或另一方惊慌失措中来个齐射，然后事情就无法挽回了。如果你是后手清除敌方的通讯和卫星设施的国家，那你就会输个精光。当你只有几分钟时间考虑，后果可能是全有或者全无时，触发扳机的手指就会痒痒。

-------------译者：724519871-审核者：rumor四起------------

theThinker  grumpy_carpenter • 6 hours ago
WW1 had a lot of factors leading up to it, and the world makeup was plain different back then, so the applicability of the Archduke's assassination to today's possible scenarios are very dubious.

一战是由很多因素导致的，那个时候世界体系是完全不同的，所以皇太子被刺杀事件能否套用在今天是值得怀疑。
 
Nothing is likely to happen in peacetime, and if it did, the diplomats would calm it down. I'm remembering the Iraqi pilot who fired an Exocet at a USN frigate, hitting it and killing sailors, back when the USN was escorting oil convoys. That ship just "took one for the team". Sadam beheaded the pilot iirc.

和平时期似乎什么都不可能发生，假如发生点什么，外交官将会冷静下来。我记得伊拉克飞行员朝美国护卫舰射了一枚飞鱼导弹，击中了战舰，杀死了船员，当时美国正在给石油运输护航。这艘战舰仅仅是“为了团队利益牺牲自己利益”，如果我没记错的话，萨达姆后来将这名飞行员斩首了。（1987年“两伊战争”时期，伊拉克战机用飞鱼导弹击中美国斯塔克号护卫舰事件发生后，伊克立即向美国表示道歉，并声明负责赔偿损失。美国海军吃了个哑巴亏，只好自认倒霉。这就是“斯塔克”号事件的经过。）
 
If the South China Sea does become a military issue, both sides would station assets there to make the other side blink. A rogue missile in that scenario would set off a firestorm, but it would be localized. There is no way either side would use a nuke. If anyone is thinking that then they need to know that they are plain wrong.

假如南中国海确实成为一个军事问题。双方都建立设施在这里迫使对方干瞪眼。流氓飞弹在这种情况下可能会引发一场风暴，但这只是小范围的。核武器将不会被使用。假如有人想要这样做，他们就会知道自己大错特错了。

-------------译者：724519871-审核者：rumor四起------------

Sam • 14 hours ago
The US Navy can handle anything China or Russia throws at them, period! The likelihood of such a fight is very low, except with media hype.
 
美国海军可以应对中国或者俄罗斯任何挑衅。任何时间！战斗的可能性很低，除非媒体炒作。
 
Nighthawk 572  Sam • 12 hours ago
In WW II the battleship became #2. Their guns had a range of over 20 miles but that did id not help against carriers with an attack range of over 300 miles. Today carriers have an attack range of 600 miles. Just how is that going to help when incoming attacks by the enemy can be launched from over 1000 miles away? Carriers are as out dated today as battleships were in WW II. Our carriers can be hit as they sit in port back in the USA and you can bet in any major war, they will be the first ships sunk. Subs with their long range SLBM and cruise missiles and their ability to hide will make them the #1 combat ship in the future.

第二次世界大战期间，战列舰成了#2。他们的炮有20公里的射程，但是无助于他们抵御攻击半径300公里的航母。今天，航母的攻击半径达到了600公里，如何帮助应对来犯之敌的攻击，敌人的射程可是达到1000公里以上。航母在今天过时了，就像二战时期的战列舰。我们的航母也许会被击中在港口，你可以在大战中打赌，他们将会成为第一个被击沉的战舰。潜艇可以携带潜射导弹、巡航导弹，他们可以隐藏，这将使他们成为未来的主要战舰。

-------------译者：maggicqueen99-审核者：rumor四起------------

John Baldwin  Nighthawk 572 • 12 hours ago
As if you have been to the future and come back to tell us novice how things are. War is defense and offense and the army with the best logistics always wins .

你这个大神棍搞得好像从未来穿越过来，告诉我们这些新手怎么回事一样。战争就是防御和进攻，拥有最好的后勤保障的军队总是赢家。
 
theThinker  John Baldwin • 7 hours ago
psst... Vietnam.

嘘.......别忘了越南。
 
El Tigre  theThinker • 7 hours ago
Psst...It's called Rules of Engagement, if we didn't have to abide by them, we would have wrecked Vietnam worse than we did to the Imperial Japanese cities in WWII.

嘘....... 这就是所谓的交战规则，要是可以不理会的话，我鹰会把越南虐得比在二战中日本帝国的城市更爽的。
 
RAP999  El Tigre • 5 hours ago
Wouldn't have solved anything. The NVA weapons plants were in the USSR and China. Bombing them would have started a nuclear war. This is never realized by those who compare Vietnam to WWII

那也无济于事。北越的军工厂设在苏联和中国。把他们都炸了会引发一场核战争。把越战和二战相提并论的二货们根本没意识到这一点。

-------------译者：maggicqueen99-审核者：rumor四起------------

theThinker  El Tigre • 6 hours ago
Oh stop, the war is over and the Vietnamese got their country back. Stop making the ridiculous "hands tied" excuse... especially when the better excuse is that JFK had absolutely no good reason to introduce American regular forces in the first place.
And Prez Nixon was quite the astute president. He agreed that the enemy should have no safe haven and he bombed their sanctuaries, didn't he. But it didn't do any good, the enemy just kept coming.
Back on topic, the original comment was that the army with the best logistics wins every time. I would say that America did not lose that war, but the VC and NVA clearly won that war despite USA and ARVN having the most stellar logistics support in military history up to that time.

得了吧，战争结束了，越南人重新掌控了他们的国家。不要再用荒谬的“身不由己”做借口…尤其是更好的借口可以是，肯尼迪当年绝对没有过得去的理由把美国常规军开拔到那里。
相比之下，尼克松就是很精明的总统。他认为，敌人就不该享有安全的避难所，所以他炸毁了他们的避难所，难道不是吗。然而这也没有奏效，敌人还是继续前进。
回到话题上，原来的评论是：是否拥有最好的后勤保障的那支军队次次都赢。我想说的是，美国没有输掉那场战争，但是显然越共游击队和北越正规军赢得了那场战争，尽管美军和南越军队当时拥有军事史上前所未有的最出色的后勤保障。

-------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：rumor四起------------

El Tigre  theThinker • 6 hours ago
It's true, if our hands weren't tied, we would have firebombed them worse than the Bombing of Tokyo as a classic example of our military might being unrestricted. So how about not sidestepping these "excuses"? The VC were VERY lucky the US military was heavily restrained. And that's not even getting into the discussion of using nuclear weapons too...

 这没错，如果我们的双手没有被束缚，那么我们能用燃烧弹把他们炸的比当年的东京还惨，那是美国军力不受束缚时战力的典型例证。所以如果没有那些”借口“会怎么样呢？越共非常幸运，因为美国的军事力量是被严重束缚了的，而这还没算上核武器。
 
theThinker  El Tigre • an hour ago
Firstly, anyone who even suggests nuclear weapons would be used in Vietnam displays that he doesn't understand what happened there, he doesn't understand the true purpose of nuclear weapons, or how to win that kind of a war.
Fact check: we bombed the daylights out of that country. By the VC's count we killed 20 of their combatants for every one of our people KIA. The simple fact is that they wanted their own country, they were going to keep coming at us, and if one million bombs didn't stop them, two million won't stop them either.

首先，说到要在越战中使用核武器的人暴露了他不懂当时是什么情况，也不懂核武器使用的真正目的是什么，以及如何赢得像越战那样的一场战争。 
事实是，我们大量轰炸了越南。根据越共的计算，美军和越共的阵亡比例是1：20。他们想要回自己的国家，他们不断的冲向我们，如果100万颗炸弹无法阻止他们，那么200万颗也无济于事。

Lichdar  John Baldwin • 10 hours ago
No one can read the future, though its always fun to jockey for the Bigger Dickus Nation.

没人能预见未来，尽管混帐大国总喜欢不择手段的耍手腕。