外媒：奥巴马的南海战略正在奏效 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：z8975623-审核者：rumor四起------------



The Obama administration may have been caught on its back foot by China’s rapid island building in the South China Sea over the last few years, but despite its lackluster policy response, its preference for multilateralism over containment may be achieving success. Fortunately for Washington, its allies and partners in the region have come together to confront Beijing’s deeper, more assertive expansion in the South China Sea. Washington’s hub-and-spokes security architecture in Asia now appears to be coalescing at the eleventh hour, as Pacific nations warily await a ruling from the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS), widely expected to rule against Beijing’s claims.

近年来中国的“大自然的鬼斧神工”上演得火热，奥巴马政府有可能要栽跟斗了。不过撇开老奥那平淡无奇的回应政策不谈，他那对中国围堵策略上的多边政策倒是有可能达到其效果了。对美国来说幸运的是，其在南海地区的盟友和小伙伴们已经团结起来一起对抗中国在中国南海那更霸道、更具有侵略性的扩张活动了。美国在亚洲布置的“中心辐射型安全架构”现在看来是在最后关头才凝聚成型，而那些邻太平洋的国家警惕的等待着来自国际海洋法法庭的正义裁决，期待着这次裁决能够对抗中国的“自古以来”。

-------------译者：z8975623-审核者：rumor四起------------

The region’s emerging security cooperation—primarily partnerships between middle powers such as the Philippines and Vietnam, but increasingly spearheaded by Japan’s reformist Abe administration—has materialized despite the lack of coherent strategy from Washington. To wit, smaller countries are coming together based on common self-interest, in the absence of coordinated U.S. leadership. This new Asian multilateralism may be more durable in the long run because it is not simply part and parcel of the U.S. rebalance, but rather an organic reaction deeply rooted in middle powers’ strategic interests.

南海地区现如今逐渐显露棱角的安保合作——（主要是菲律宾和越南这些中等体量的国家之间的合作，不过安倍晋三改良政府领导的日本逐渐在这个安保合作上担起了大旗）——在缺乏来自美国的政策配合支持的情况下已经实现了。这些机智体量较小的国家如今在没有美国进行领导协调的情况下，基于他们的共同利益而走到了一起。这个新的亚洲多边政策可能会坚挺很久，因为它不仅仅是美国亚太再平衡策略的一部分，它更是一个为中等体量国家战略利益发声的机构。


-------------译者：maggicqueen99-审核者：rumor四起------------

B Teoh • a day ago
Despite numerous FON by US, China continues its island building. No sign reclamation and island development were affected by US's actions. China is definitely on the winning side.

虽然美国表演了无数次自由航行，中国仍然闷声不响造岛。没有任何迹象显示填岛工程和岛屿开发受到美国行动的影响。中国毫无疑问是赢家。

jonbigbootay • 16 hours ago
The solution to this problem is simple: The U.S. in coordination with Vietnam, Philippines and the other claimants of the South China Sea, should pick a spot within the nine-dash line, but beyond 12 miles from any of China's occupied artificial islands, and start dredging up their own artificial island. And, if China interferes, then the USA should cancel all of the Chinese Treasury Bonds and Notes currently held by the China government (approx. $800 billion USD).

解决方案很简单：美国人和越南、菲律宾以及其他对南海有领土主张的国家合作，在九段线中找一个点，但是距离任何中国占领的人工岛12英里以外，然后开造他们自己的人工岛。如果中国胆敢干涉，那美国就赖掉所有中国政府现在持有的美国国债（大约8000亿美元）。
 
Result: instantaneous collapse of the Chinese economy.

后果：中国经济立刻崩溃。
 
Maybe World War III, too. But, hey, life's no fun without an occasional nuclear exchange.

也许还会爆发第三次世界大战。但是，嘿哥们，如果没有一场偶发的核战，生活将多么乏味啊。

-------------译者：maggicqueen99-审核者：rumor四起------------
 
Lichdar • 20 hours ago
I'm glad they think its working. If it continues to work this well, I think everyone will be happy.

我很高兴他们认为这样可行。如果继续干得不错的话，我想每个人都会开心的。
 
Joseph Siew • a day ago
The whole issue of SCS was blown out of proportion due to HRC's announcement of PIVOT TO ASIA. By stating that it would move 60% of the US troops to Asia, HRC is claiming that they would militarize Asia. Also, the announcement also emboldened the likes of Japan, Pinoy and Vietnam, making the situations worse. In order for Obama to leave the office with pride as the POTUS with a Nobel PEACE prize, the PTA initiative should be discarded. When the aggression is stopped, peace will be restored.

南海问题的关键在于希拉里宣布的重返亚洲计划把事态搞大了。若真要实施该计划，美国就须将60%的兵力部署到亚洲。那相当于对亚洲进行军事化。同时，公告还给日本、菲律宾和越南撑腰，使情况变得更糟。为了让奥巴马带着作为美国总统获得诺贝尔和平奖的骄傲离任，应该放弃重返亚洲的行动。停止好斗，和平就会再现。

-------------译者：z8975623-审核者：rumor四起------------

thesurvivor • a day ago
If US feel great, it's ok.
Since they gagged Adm Harris and Defense secretary Carter, the press have less disinformation to report.
China is very predictable, freedom of navigation has never been an issue. China is only reacting to US militarization of SCS. If US stop provocation China will not aggravate the situation.
New Philippines president Duterte brings new hope to the situation. He doesn't seem to be a US puppet. Hope CIA don't plot a coup.

 要是美国自我感觉还行，那就OK。
自从他们堵住Adm Harris（美国太平洋总司令部司令，译注：曾扬言要做好在南海的开战准备）还有国防部长Carter的臭嘴后，媒体的虚假报导就变少了。
中国的行为很好预测好吗，航行自由其实从来就不是个问题。中国只不过是在对美国在南海地区的军事化行为进行回应而已。要是美国停止军事挑衅，那中国就不会使事情恶化。
如今菲律宾总统Duterte给这一情况的改善带来了新的希望。他看起来貌似不受美国人的控制。希望CIA不要去菲律宾搅屎吧。

老三  thesurvivor • a day ago
When we talk about the South China Sea, we must treat "freedom of navigation(FON)" in legal terms, not linguistic terms. In legal terms, freedom of navigation has ALWAYS been an issue in the South China Sea. China claims the area within the 9-dash line to be her territorial waters. According to UNCLOS, no country is allowed to have FONs in territorial waters. That is, UNCLOS gives China the right to DISALLOW any country the FON in her 9-dash area. If China ALLOWS the FONs in her claimed area, of course it, DISALLOW vs ALLOWS, becomes an issue.
If the US asks China, if it is your territorial waters, why you allow me FON? How will China answer?

当我们讨论南海问题时，我们必须要以法律术语的角度来看待“航行自由（FON）”，而不是把它当为一个语言措词。在这种角度上，航行自由的问题其实在中国南海一直都存在。中国声称九段线内的区域都是其领海，那么根据《联合国海洋法公约》，其它国家在中国领海里是没有航行自由的权利的。就是说，《联合国海洋法公约》给予了中国权利来拒绝其它国家在其九段线区域内能够自由航行。要是中国在其声称的领海里允许航行自由，拒绝VS允许，那么问题就出现了。

-------------译者：maggicqueen99-审核者：rumor四起------------

thesurvivor  老三 • 9 hours ago
China never claim the entire sea within the 9 dash line. China only claim the land/ rock/island and the EEZ/Territorial sea/continental shelf associated with those island/rocks.
The problem is there are a lot of lazy journalists and even more lazy readers who have never bother to find out the facts.

中国从来没有主张九段线内所有海域的主权。中国只是主张跟这些岛礁相关的陆地、礁岩、岛屿和领海、大陆架和专属经济区的权力。
问题是好多记者都很懒，读者更懒，都不愿花时间去寻找真相。
 
老三  thesurvivor • 8 hours ago
You were among those who have never bothered to find out the facts. Your "China only claim the land/ rock/island and the EEZ/Territorial sea/continental shelf associated with those island/rocks" means to me, China claims 12 nautical miles of the sea as her territory. Whenever the US does freedom-of-navigation operation in the Chinese claimed sea (12 nautical miles), it immediately becomes an issue. But you claimed it has never been an issue. Why?

你就属于那些从来都懒得费心去找出事实的人。你所谓的“中国只是主张跟这些岛礁相关的陆地、礁岩、岛屿和领海、大陆架和专属经济区的权力”对我来说意味着，中国主张12海里的领海。每当美国在中国声称的领海（12海里海域）自由航行时，立刻就有争议。但你声称这根本不是问题。为什么？
 
Let me repeat. The Americans do not accept your Chinese claim. To show their non-acceptance is to conduct freedom of navigation in your Chinese claimed area (12 nautical miles or 9-dash line). Is it an issue?

我来重复一遍。美国人不接受你们中国人的主张。为了表明不接受这一主张，他们就在你们中国人宣称的海域（12海里或者九段线）自由航行。这不是问题吗？
 
Also, I have given you the legal meaning of the term freedom of navigation. You simply did not try to understand it but blindly came up with blames on journalists and readers. You are here to defend and protect China's interests. If you lose by way of terminology, China also loses.

此外，我已经给了你航行自由这个术语的法律解释。你根本没有尝试去理解它，而是一味地指责记者和读者。我知道你是为了维护中国的利益。如果你在法理上输掉的话，中国其实在法理上也输了。

-------------译者：maggicqueen99-审核者：rumor四起------------

thesurvivor  老三 • 7 hours ago
Do you know the meaning of territorial Sea and the rules prescribed by the UNCLOS? There are criteria for innocent passage. Go read about it!

你们知道领海的定义以及联合国海洋法公约规定的含义吗？公约里写明了无害通过的标准。没看过的人先去看一遍！
 
thesurvivor  Ferdy Marcos • a day ago
As long as Duterte is smart, works for the interest of Philippines and not a CIA puppet it is easy to deal with him. The most difficult people are US puppets. US national interest is misery in Asia. The more the misery the better they feel about themselves as saviors of the world.

只要杜特尔特够聪明，为菲律宾人的利益而战，而不是从当CIA的提线木偶，那就很容易对付他。最难弄的人是美国傀儡们。美国的利益对亚洲来说是灾难。亚洲越陷入困境，以世界拯救者自居的美国佬就自我感觉越良好。

-------------译者：maggicqueen99-审核者：rumor四起------------

老三  thesurvivor • a day ago
You even do not understand the easy issue with freedom of navigation, how can you understand the harder issue of US?

你们连怎么解决航行自由的简单问题都整不明白呢，那你还怎么理解更难以理解的美国问题？
 
Andre • a day ago
Speak softly and carry a big stick...

带一支大棒，温柔地说话......
 
GLI0213 • a day ago
Next to SCS claim, China is eyeing the Indian Ocean.

对南海提出领土主张后，中国接下来就瞄准了印度洋。
 
Jackie Thai • 2 hours ago
Simply supply around 1000 battle and destroyer ships to the surrounding countries like Vietnam, Philipine, Malaya, Autralia, New Zealand, Indonasia, Singapore, Thailand. Then summon the convict and ask them to leave the islands within 24 hours. If not, all the countries attack those islands and shoot down any jets flying around. Just do the simple way like ISIS. Do not think complicate to hold your post forever. China is stacking up steel in effort to mass producing ships. They will run out of fuel after 30 days of battle. They can not use the mass to attack like land or Korea any more. Secure your border to prevent them from stealing food like Vietnam battle. Don't worry about Russia because they will not involve.

很容易搞定的啦，只要给周边国家象越南、菲律宾、马来西亚、澳大利亚、新西兰、印尼、新加坡、泰国等等派1000艘战列舰和驱逐舰。然后传唤罪人，要求他们在24小时内离开争议岛屿。如果对方不就范，所有国家都攻击这些岛屿，击落他们任何飞来飞去的飞机。只是像ISIS一样简单行事即可。不要为了永远坐稳位子就考虑问题太复杂。中国为了大规模造战舰，正在疯狂炼钢。30天的战斗后，他们将耗尽燃料。他们不再可能进行大规模的类似朝鲜战争那样的陆战(这句原文行文有问题)。保护你的边境，以防止他们像越战时那样来偷袭。不必担心俄罗斯，因为他们不愿意卷入纠纷。

-------------译者：maggicqueen99-审核者：rumor四起------------

Alan Smithee • 6 hours ago
I guess you can spin it that way. But the fact is when the Pivot to Asia was announced there were no tensions. China wasn't building any islands. Now China has built islands and what was the US's response? Nothing. Wasn't the pivot suppose to deal with this very situation? Where the US led world-wide isolation of China. Where is the economic isolation of China? Where are the Americans ready to sacrifice their lives to go to war with China? Obama didn't do anything until after a year and it's well short of anything promised by the Pivot to Asia. If the US were to truly exercise Freedom of Navigation why doesn't the US put some soldiers in a boat and go ashore one of these islands and have themselves picnic without any notice to China? Sending ships within 12 miles of these islands is a superficial gesture. Yeah go ahead and spin this as the US acting. But it's actually far from what the pivot to Asia promised. So who do you think is actually winning? It's ain't the US or any of its allies in Asia. Another sign of the US losing is the advertising of how the US is going to lift the arms embargo with Vietnam. Yeah the US wants Vietnam to fight its war on China because Americans wouldn't be able to handle the losses China would inflict on the US even if China lost a war with the US.

我认为你这么脑洞大开也行。但事实是，刚宣布重返亚洲时，并没有紧张局势。中国那会儿没造任何岛呢。现在，中国已经造了一堆岛，美国有什么回应？嘛也没有。这个重返亚洲 不就是假定用来处理这种情况的吗？哪里找得到美国领导的世界范围内孤立中国的行动？对中国进行的经济隔离又在哪里？准备牺牲自己的生命和中国交战的美国人在哪里？奥巴马在中国造岛一年后才开始行动，这和重返亚太的承诺相去甚远。如果美国真要争取航行自由，为什么不事先未经通知中国就派一艘装满士兵的军舰过去，停泊在其中一个岛上让士兵们野餐？在距离这些岛屿12英里内派军舰过去只是表面文章。是的，以此作为开端继续干吧。但这实际上离许诺过的亚洲轴心相距甚远。那么，你认为谁是真正的赢家？既不是美国也不是它在亚洲的盟友们。美国失分的另一个迹象是广而告之将如何取消对越南的武器禁运。是的，美国希望越南与中国交战，因为美国人不知道怎么处理中美之间的冲突所造成的损失，即使中国输掉与美国的战争亦然。