中国的暮年 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

The country’s population is aging and shrinking. That means big consequences for its economy—and America’s global standing.

这个国家的人口正在不断萎缩并且老龄化。这将对中国的经济以及美国的全球地位产生重大的影响。



n opposite sides of the globe, two debates that will profoundly affect the future of the United States, and indeed the world, are raging. One of them has become shrilly public, while the other remains almost secret. On the surface they might seem to have little to do with each other, but at bottom, they are inextricably linked.

地球的另一边，两场将深刻影响美国、甚至世界的未来的争论，正激烈进行着。其中一个已经成为公众热点话题，而另一个却几乎还无人问津。表面看来它们之间没有什么联系，但它们本质上是紧密联系的。

The first debate, which is unfolding in America, concerns immigration. Republicans like Donald Trump and Ted Cruz have staked out some of the more radical positions in this debate, such as urging that the U.S. build a wall to keep out illegal immigrants and that it deport the millions who are already here. The other debate, which is playing out in Beijing, is about how big a navy China should build, and how much it should contest America’s primacy in the  world’s oceans.

第一个在美国展开的争论，是关于移民的。像特朗普和克鲁兹这样的共和党人已经表露了更加激进的立场，比如要求美国政府建一堵墙来拦截非法移民，并且驱逐已经入境的数百万非法移民。另一个话题，是在北京开始的，是关于中国的海军需要多大的规模，以及在怎样的程度上和美国争夺海洋霸权。

To a degree scarcely suspected by most people, both debates—and more generally, America’s chances of maintaining its standing in the world—are bound up in the two countries’ sharply contrasting population dynamics.

人们普遍认为，这两个辩论以及美国能否保持它的国际地位，很大程度上取决于这两国对比鲜明的人口状况。

 -------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Not so long ago, conventional wisdom in China held that the country’s economy would soon overtake America’s in size, achieving a GDP perhaps double or triple that of the U.S. later this century. As demographic reality sets in, however, some Chinese experts now say that the country’s economic output may never match that of the U.S.

就在不久前，中国国内一贯的观点仍认为中国经济不久将在规模上超越美国，在本世纪后期达到美国GDP的两到三倍。然而根据人口统计的真实情况来看，许多中国专家又预言中国经济产出也许永远达不到美国的水平。

With American Baby Boomers entering retirement, the United States has its own pressing social-safety-net costs. What is often neglected in debates about swelling entitlement spending, however, is how much better America’s position is than other countries’. Once again, numbers tell the story best: By the end of the century, China’s population is projected to dip below 1 billion for the first time since 1980. At the same time, America’s population is expected to hit 450 million. Which is to say, China’s population will go from roughly four and a half times as large as America’s to scarcely more than twice its size.
Even as China’s workforce shrinks, America’s is expected to increase by 31 percent from 2010 to 2050. This growing labor supply will boost economic growth, strengthen the tax base, and relieve pressure on the Social Security system. At the same time, Americans will continue to enjoy a substantial advantage over the Chinese in terms of per capita income. This advantage in wealth will continue to underwrite U.S. security commitments and capabilities around the world.

随着美国“婴儿潮”的一代步入退休的年龄，美国开始有了增长的社保压力。然而，美国的情况要比其他国家要好得多。这个事实常常在关于社会补助开支膨胀的争论中被忽视。又一次，数据说明了问题：在本世纪末，中国的人口预计将降至10亿以下，这将是1980年来首次。与此同时，美国人口将有望达到4.5亿。这就是说，中国的人口将从美国的约4.5倍变为只有美国的差不多两倍。甚至在中国的劳动力萎缩的同时，美国还有望在2010至2050年间增加31%的劳动力。增长的劳动力供给将助推经济的发展，强化税收基础，并且减轻社保压力。同时，依照人均资本收入，美国人还将持续拥有对中国人的巨大优势。这种财富上的优势将持续为美国的全球安保提供保障。

-------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

That the U.S. is not facing population shrinkage is due largely to immigration. America’s fertility rate, while higher than that of China and many European countries, is still below the threshold required to avoid shrinkage, about 2.1 children per woman. By keeping its doors relatively open to newcomers, America is able to replenish itself. If the country were instead to shut its doors, its population would plateau and its median age would climb more steeply. According to the Pew Research Center, immigrants and their children and grandchildren will account for 88 percent of U.S. population growth over the next 50 years.
These new arrivals are widely portrayed in a variety of ways that fail to convey their true importance to the American economy and future. Sometimes they are thought of as undesirables who get by doing scut work. Other times they are depicted as taking good jobs and opportunities from citizens. In some cases, they are demonized as criminals. Less often, they are romanticized as the brainpower driving American technological ingenuity.

美国长期以来一直没有面临人口减少的问题很大程度上是由于移民。美国的生育率，虽然高于中国与许多欧洲国家，却仍然低于能够避免人口减少的阈值——平均每个妇女生育2.1个孩子。通过相对放开移民的办法，美国尚能维持人口补给。如果美国没有打开门户，它的人口增长将陷入停滞并且其人口中位数年龄将急剧上升。据皮尤研究中心称，移民及他们的后代在往后50年里将构成美国88%的人口增长。而这些新加入的居民普遍被描述成没法真正对美国经济与未来做出贡献的一群人。有时人们认为他们是干着枯燥的粗活的一些不良人员。另一些时候他们又被描述成从公民手里抢走好工作与就业机会的一些人。在一些情况下，他们被妖魔化成罪犯。只有在很少的时候他们才被人浪漫地认为是美国科技进步的智力驱动力。

The truth is broader and far less exotic. America assimilates outsiders on a scale matched by no other powerful country: Immigrants inhabit every rung of society and work in every sector. Immigration, perhaps more than any other single factor, sustains American prosperity. And immigration will, shrieking campaign rhetoric notwithstanding, spare the United States the fate now threatening to engulf its competitors.    
事实是他们远没有那样难以调和和特别。美国同化外来者的程度没有其他国家能赶上：移民进入社会的各个阶层，在各种部门工作。移民，也许比其他任何一个因素都要强力地维持着美国的繁荣。而且移民能让美国免于遭受其竞争者正在面临的厄运。


-------------译者：tera-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

jammerjim • 6 days ago
Well, this ought to bring out the euro superious types, and the Trumpites who hate immigration.

 嗯，这种文章应该能引出不少欧洲傲娇者和那些憎恨移民的川普者（指支持特朗普的人）
 
MZale  jammerjim • 6 days ago
"Trumpites who hate immigration."
And, like the candidate, they also fundamentally misunderstand China's financial situation and place in the global economy. This piece should be a giant magnet for their ignorant comments. Then again, it is kinda long, detailed, and doesn't have his name in the title. . . .
 
“憎恨移民的川普者”
像那候选人（特朗普）一样，他们也从根本上误解了中国在全球的经济情况和地位。这篇文章会像一块巨型磁铁一般引出他们傲慢的评论。而且，这段话有点长，很细节，标题中也没有出现川普的名字...
 
ScottCA  MZale • 5 days ago
Could you guys sound more like paid propagandists, even if you tried?

 来，再给力点，你们能说得更像“雇佣的宣传机器”一点吗？
 
NWB  ScottCA • 5 days ago
Facts suck don't they?

事实令人不爽，不是吗？

-------------译者：彼岸曼陀罗-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

paulrusss  MZale • 3 days ago
Beautiful. Other nations are too burdened caring for their elderly to challenge America's military might. America, meanwhile, is perfectly happy to let its elderly DIE and subsist on DOGFOOD while it ceaselessly shovels slop and pork into the gaping maw of the military-industrial complex hog.

漂亮。
.其他国家因为要照顾老人不堪重负而无法挑战美国军事力量。同时，美国则很乐意让老人去死，然后吃着狗食却不停的把剩菜和猪肉铲进军工大肥猪的豪腹中。 
 
NDForever  paulrusss • 3 days ago
Truly, people like you, who think, who write, who believe as you do, are a cancer on America.

真的，像你这种人，像你这么想，这么写，这么认为的人，就是美国之癌。
 
paulrusss  NDForever • 2 days ago
Uhhhhh because I pointed out we have an unstoppable and destructive military-industrial complex? You are a grade A idiot.

呃呃呃，因为我指出了我们有一个不可阻挡的毁灭性军工复合体？你真是个上等白痴。

GreetBigBalls  paulrusss • 2 days ago
NDForver is a true patriot. without our superior military and it's illustrious leaders, soldiers from countries like Al-Qaeda, China, or Iran would have occupied your home by now. And what they do with your wife and girl ... is entirely up to them.

NDForver 是一个真正的爱国者。没有我们的超级军事力和它的杰出领袖们，来自基地组织，中国，或是伊朗的士兵现在已经占领了你的家。对你的妻女，他们干什么就干什么。

-------------译者：彼岸曼陀罗-审核者：tera------------

paulrusss  GreetBigBalls • a day ago
With what navy? Nobody is going to invade us. You're a fear-monger.

要什么海军？没有人会入侵我们。你是一个恐慌制造者。
 
GreetBigBalls  paulrusss • a day ago
you don't need a navy if you can just walk across the mexican border

如果你能步行跨越墨西哥边境，你就不需要什么海军。
 
paulrusss  GreetBigBalls • a day ago
China is going to walk across the Mexican border? Without a navy? Because their country borders Mexico?
To paraphrase Maddox, "how do you idiots even breathe?"

中国将步行跨越墨西哥边境？在没有海军的情况下？因为他们的国家跟墨西哥接壤？
玛多克斯曰：“你们这些白痴也呼气儿么？”
 
NDForever  paulrusss • a day ago
No. Because you write trite words which have no real meaning. Write about some contemporary issue and problem> the Ecological-Academic complex.

因为你写的陈词滥调毫无实际意义。写一些近期热点和问题，而不是的生态学术杂论。

-------------译者：724519871-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

paulrusss  NDForever • a day ago
Yeah you're definitely some nut with buzzwords about how climate change isn't real. Go back to your trailer park.
 
 耶，你就是那些否认气候变化的疯子。回你的拖车园吧。

NDForever  paulrusss • a day ago
Beautiful Five BR, three bath home with leaded windows, plaster walls, wood floors. Paid for. Didn't you folks call it Global Warming (starting 20 years after you called it global cooling)? At least before it stopped warming 17 years ago and broke all your computer models you thought were 'proof'. You aren't well informed and you wouldn't debate well with me.
 
美丽的Five BR，三间浴室带花式铅条窗户，石膏墙，木地板。值得拥有。你们这些人不是称之为全球变暖吗（20年前，你们称之为全球变冷）？至少在17年前，你们所认为证据的计算机模型已经被戳破了。你们却不知道。你们没有能力和我辩驳。
 
paulrusss  NDForever • a day ago
You can say these things, but they're just plain wrong. The last few years have been the hottest ever, but people like you just play ostrich, stick your heads in the sand, and pretend it's not true.

你可以说这些东西，但都是错误的。近些年气温比以往都要热，你们这些做鸵鸟的人，继续把头埋在沙子你吧，就它当做是假的吧。
 
And anybody with a job worth half a da;mn can buy a house in BF Egypt, so not impressed.

任何有工作的人可以在埃及买房，所以没啥了不起的。

-------------译者：彼岸曼陀罗-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Jim Smith  jammerjim • 5 days ago
trump supporters do not hate immigration, my low information puppet. Trump supports hate ILLEGAL immigration. I know that word is hard for you low IQ progressive drones to understand, that is why i put it in all caps for you.

川普支持者不恨移民，你个低信息木脑壳。川普是不喜欢非法移民。我知道这个词对你这个低智商革命寄生虫来说非常难，这就是为什么我专门为你用了大写来标注。
 
YouAreWrong  Jim Smith • 5 days ago
Their leader is being indicted by the FBI and they are educated to honestly believe the FBI is a Republican political hit squad. They are uninterested in "laws"

他们的领导人被联邦调查局起诉，他们被教育去相信联邦调查局是一个共和党的政治出击队。他们对“法律”不感冒。