路线不明的前进方向：中国的军事造船业 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：彼岸曼陀罗-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



“In recent years, China’s navy has been launching new ships like dumping dumplings [into soup broth].” This phrase has circulated widely via Chinese media sources and websites. Accompanying it are ever-more-impressive analyses and photographs, most recently of China’s first indigenous aircraft carrier, now under construction in Dalian. The driving force behind all this, China’s shipbuilding industry, has grown more rapidly than any other in modern history.

“最近几年，中国海军一直在推出新船舶，如同在汤中下饺子一般。”这句话在中国的媒体源和网站上得到了广泛的应用。伴随而来的是最近更为引人注目第一艘中国本土航母的的解析和照片，现在正在大连建造中。而这一切背后的驱动力，中国造船业，在现代历史上比其他任何国家都更迅猛的成长。

-------------译者：彼岸曼陀罗-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

One of this century’s most significant events, China’s maritime transformation is already making waves. Still, however, China’s course and its implications—including at sea—remain highly uncertain, triggering intense speculation and concern from many quarters and in many directions. Beijing has largely met its goal of becoming the world’s largest shipbuilder. Yet progress remains uneven, with military shipbuilding leading overall but with significant weakness in propulsion and electronics for military and civilian applications alike. It has thus never been more important to assess what quality and quantity of ships is China able to supply its navy and other maritime forces with, today and in the future. Somewhat surprisingly, however, there has been insufficient attention to this topic, particularly from a U.S. Navy (USN) perspective.

本世纪最重大的事件之一，中国的海事转型已是风生水起。然而，中国的路线及其影响-包括在海上的-仍然很不确定，引发了来自四面八方的紧张猜测和关注。北京（政府）已基本达到成为世界第一造船大国的目标。但进展仍不平衡，军用造船虽整体领先，却在军用推进装置和电子设备上有明显的缺点，民用的也类似。因此，不管是现今还是未来，中国能提供给海军以及他海事力量的船舶质量和数量才是评估的重中之重。有些奇怪的是，对此话题并无足够关注，尤其是从美国海军的视角。


-------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Just here to comment
China's rise is slowing down and possibly heading down an economic path similar to that of Japan's in the past. If that happens China may still possess the second strongest navy in the world by 2020 but it won't be on par with the USN by 2030.

中国的增长开始减缓并且可能走上日本以前的老路。如果是这样，中国也许仍能在2020前拥有世界第二强的海军，但2030年前还没法和美国海军相比。

TDog
Progress is not achieved in a void. The US Navy may have qualitative and quantitative degradation over the same time span, thus meeting the PLAN halfway, so to speak.

进步不是凭空弄出来的。美国海军可能在相同的一段的时间里经历了质和量的下降，从而只能和解放军海军妥协。

Just here to comment
True. There are programs that are supposed to be 'game changing' to say the least have been met with major set backs, like the LCS and Zumwalt.

没错。一些项目应该是可以改变游戏规则的，退一步说我们遭受了一些大的挫折，比如濒海战斗舰和朱姆沃尔特舰。

-------------译者：jmmark-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

TDog
The LCS: When you absolutely, positively have to be stuck in Singapore for months on end.

LCS：当你完全明确地不得不被困在新加坡连续几个月。

Eouz Cuemarz
China is expanding is naval assets to claim the Caspian sea and establish another claims so called 13 dash line.

中国正在扩大其海军以索取里海以及建立另一个所谓的13段线的声明。

Dr. Pro Liv
Caspian sea !!??! :-)))))
That's far away from China, and there is no access for big ships anyway!
Are they suppose to fly those ships there??!!

里海？！
这里远离中国，而且这里没有任何给大型船只通过的入口。难道他们想要让那些船飞过来这里吗？

TDog
Ho hum.. another commentator trying to prove how oh-so sharp and witty he is... The Nine-Dash Line as comedy fodder is about as sophisticated as "yo' mama" jokes.

嗯。。。另一个评论员似乎在尝试证明自己是多么的聪明与机智。。。9段线是一个和“尼玛”一样的笑话。

 -------------译者：彼岸曼陀罗-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Just here to comment
Yo momma so fat, she's larger than China's Nine-Dash Line claim.
or 
Yo momma so fat, even Trump can't afford to build a wall around her.
Alright, line up those up votes.

你妈这么胖，她比中国九段线还广。
或
你妈这么胖，川普盖不起圈她的墙。
好吧，排队等投票。

TDog
Okay, I gotta admit... those were pretty funny. :-D

好吧，我承认...挺搞笑的。：-D

Just here to comment
Next they'll claim the entire Pacific Ocean as their's.

接下来他们会宣布整个太平洋都是他们的。

Frank Blangeard
Have you checked a map? The Caspian Sea is landlocked and the countries bordering the Sea have come to an agreement that no foreign military will be allowed. Two of those countries are Russia and Iran.

你查过地图了吗？里海是内陆湖，沿岸国家已经达成了一项协议决不允许外国军队进入。这些（沿岸）国家当中就有俄罗斯和伊朗。

-------------译者：彼岸曼陀罗-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Eouz Cuemarz
Yes i know where the Caspian sea is. My point is China's claim of the entire South China Sea thru nine dash line is as impossible as claiming the Caspian sea which is the largest lake in the world home to Russian Caspian flotilla.

是的，我知道里海在哪里。我的观点是，中国通过九段线来对整个南中国海宣示，就如同主张世界上最大的湖里海是俄罗斯里海舰队的后院一样。

Thomas Fung
To expect the Chinese navy to be qualitatively comparable to the US in just 14 years seems to be an expectation designed to win new defense contracts, not reflect current reality.

预计中国海军将在14年内与美国并驾齐驱，似乎是一种旨在赢得新国防合同的预期，而不是反映眼下的实际情况。

-------------译者：彼岸曼陀罗-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

World Peace Initiative
China will not build 10-12 aircraft carriers. A few will be built. It is unlikely that China will build 50+ nuclear powered submarines. As of the rest, it is uncertain what it is going to happen.
China has not set the goal to dominate the world, unlike the US, because its vision is, the world is heading toward multi-polar, rather than a single hegemon dominates the world.
If the author knew what I have just mentioned, he would not have extrapolated as he has. Still, the gap between China and the US is closing to some extent.

中国不会建造10-12艘航母。只会造几艘。中国也不可能建造50艘核潜艇。至于其他的，谁知道会发生什么事。
与美国不同，中国没有设定目标要称霸世界，因为在他们看来，世界正走向多极化，而不是一个单一霸权主导世界。
如果作者知道我刚才提到的，他就不会有那些之前的推测。不过在一定程度上，中美之间的差距正在减小。