南海新局势：中国强化控制，美国面临考验！（无评论） [美国媒体]

导读：上周一架美国海军的P-8A海神飞机上的机组人员监视中国在南海的建造行动。译文无评论，免费。



NEAR MISCHIEF REEF, South China Sea — Asthe United States Navy reconnaissance plane banked low near Mischief Reef inthe South China Sea early this month, a Chinese warning crackled on the radio.

南海美济礁附近——本月早些时候，当美国海军侦察机倾斜机翼低空掠过南海美济礁附近的海域时，无线电里传来一则来自中方的警告。

“U.S. military aircraft,” came thechallenge, delivered in English in a harsh staccato. “You have violated ourChina sovereignty and infringed on our security and our rights. You need toleave immediately and keep far out.”

“呼叫美国军机，”在嘈杂断续的信号里，这则警告消息用英文警告道，“你已侵犯中国主权，对我国安全和权利造成了侵害。马上离开，不要靠近。”

Aboard the P-8A Poseidon maritime patrolaircraft, flying in what is widely considered to be international airspace, Lt.Dyanna Coughlin scanned a live camera feed showing the dramatic evolution ofMischief Reef.

这架“P-8A 海神”(P-8APoseidon)海上巡逻机当时正在一片有广泛共识的国际空域内飞行。机上的狄安娜·考格林中尉(Lt. Dyanna Coughlin)拍摄了一段实况视频影像，展现美济礁上的巨大变化。



In congressional testimony before assuminghis new post as head of the United States Indo-Pacific Command in May, Adm.Philip S. Davidson sounded a stark warning about Beijing’s power play in a seathrough which roughly one-third of global maritime trade flows.

在今年五月接任美国印度-太平洋司令部总司令一职前，菲利普·S·戴维森上将(Adm. Philip S. Davidson)曾在国会听证会上发出警告，表示北京正在海上采取高压攻势，而约有三分之一的国际海事贸易都需要经过这片海域。

“In short, China is now capable ofcontrolling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the UnitedStates,” Admiral Davidson said, an assessment that caused some consternation inthe Pentagon.

“简单来说，中国现在有能力在除了与美国开战以外的任何情况下控制南海，”戴维森表示。这一评价在五角大楼里引起了一些惊慌情绪。

In a June meeting with Defense SecretaryJim Mattis, Mr. Xi vowed that China “cannot lose even one inch of theterritory” in the South China Sea, even though an international tribunal hasdismissed Beijing’s expansive claims to the waterway.

在6月与美国国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)的会晤中，**誓言中国在南海“领土一寸也不能丢”，尽管一个国际法庭已经驳回了中国对这片水域的广泛领土主张。

The reality is that governments withoverlapping territorial claims — representing Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan,Malaysia and Brunei — lack the firepower to challenge China. The United Stateshas long fashioned itself as a keeper of peace in the Western Pacific. But it’sa risky proposition to provoke conflict over a scattering of rocks in the SouthChina Sea, analysts say.

现实情况是，和中国有领土主张冲突的几个政府——越南、菲律宾、台湾、马来西亚和文莱——缺乏挑战中国的火力。长期以来，美国一直把自己塑造成西太平洋地区的和平守护者。但分析人士表示，为了在南海的几块礁石而挑起争端是一个冒险的提议。



Could somewhere like Half Moon Shoal be thenext flash point in the South China Sea?

像半月礁这样的地方会成为南海下一个爆发点吗?

“A crisis at Half Moon was averted, but ithas always been the risk with the South China Sea that a small incident inremote waters escalates into a much larger crisis through miscommunication ormishandling,” said Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof IshakInstitute in Singapore. “That’s why this is all so dangerous. It’s not just apile of rocks that can be ignored.”

“半月礁的危机得以避免，但是南海一直存在这样的风险：在偏远海域发生的一件小事，如果沟通不畅或处理不当，可能会升级为一场规模大得多的危机，”新加坡东南亚研究所(Institute of Southeast Asian Studies)的高级研究员伊恩·J·斯托雷(Ian J. Storey)说。“这就是为什么这一切如此地危险。这不仅仅是一堆可以忽略的岩石。”
上周在海军侦察任务中，监视器上显示着左前方观察员控制的一台摄像机拍摄到的画面。

On the scratchy radio channel, the Chinesechallenges kept on coming. Eight separate times during the mission this month,Chinese dispatchers queried the P-8A Poseidon. Twice, the Chinese accused theAmerican military aircraft not just of veering close to what Beijing consideredits airspace but also of violating its sovereignty.

中国不断通过噪杂的无线电发出查问。在这个月的任务中，中国调度员分别对P-8A海神巡逻机进行了8次问询。中方两次指责美国军机不仅接近北京自认的领空，而且侵犯了中国的主权。

“Leave immediately!” the Chinese warnedover and over.

“立即离开！”中方一遍又一遍地警告。



Descending as low as 5,000 feet, thesurveillance flight this month gave a bird’s-eye view of the Chineseconstruction.

这个月的监视飞行下降到了5000英尺，可以鸟瞰中国的建设工程。

On Subi Reef, a construction crane swunginto action next to a shelter designed for surface-to-air missiles. There werebarracks, bunkers and open hangars. At least 70 vessels, some warships,surrounded the island.

在渚碧礁(Subi Reef)上，一辆建筑起重机在一处专门用于地对空导弹的掩体旁开始工作。岛上有营房、工事和开放式机库。至少有70艘船和几艘军舰包围着该岛。

On Fiery Cross Reef, a complex of buildingswith Chinese eaves was arrayed at the center of the reclaimed island, includingan exhibition-style hall with an undulating roof. It looked like a typicalnewly built town in interior China — except for the radar domes that protrudedlike giant golf balls across the reef. A military-grade runway ran the lengthof the island, and army vehicles trundled across the tarmac. Antenna farmsbristled.

在永暑礁(Fiery Cross Reef)，一片带着中式屋檐的建筑物排在这个填海岛屿的中心，其中有一座有着波浪屋顶，看起来像一个展厅。除了像巨型高尔夫球一样凸起的雷达天线罩，这里和典型的中国内陆新建城镇没什么不同。一段军用飞机跑道有整个岛那么长，军用车辆在跑道上缓慢行进。天线密布。

“It’s impressive to see the Chinesebuilding, given that this is the middle of the South China Sea and far awayfrom anywhere, but the idea that this isn’t militarized, that’s clearly not thecase,” Commander Purcell said. “It’s not hidden or anything. The intention,it’s there plain to see.”

“看到中国的建筑还是挺惊人的，因为那是南海的中间地带，远离任何地方，但是要说它不是军事化的，显然并非如此，”珀塞尔说。“它并没有遮遮掩掩。它的意图很明显。”



“We are prepared to support China’schoices, if they promote long-term peace and prosperity,” Mr. Mattis said,explaining the snub. “Yet China’s policy in the South China Sea stands in starkcontrast to the openness of our strategy.”

“如果中国的选择是促进长期的和平与繁荣，我们准备支持它们，”马蒂斯解释了美国对中国的冷落。“然而，中国在南海的政策与我们的开放性战略存在巨大反差。”
永暑礁上的雷达塔、机库和五层的楼房。

For its part, Beijing claims the UnitedStates is the one militarizing the South China Sea. In addition to the routinesurveillance flyovers, Mr. Trump has sent American warships more frequently towaters near China’s man-made islands. These so-called freedom of navigationpatrols, which occur worldwide, are meant to show the United States’ commitmentto maritime free passage, Pentagon officials say.

北京方面声称是美国导致了南海的军事化。除常规的监视低空飞行外，特朗普还更频繁地将美国军舰送往中国人造岛附近的水域。五角大楼官员说，这些所谓的自由巡航，在世界各地都有，旨在表明美国对海上自由通行的承诺。

The last such operation by the UnitedStates was in May, when two American warships sailed near the Paracels, anothercontested South China Sea archipelago. Beijing was irate.

美国上一次这样的行动发生在5月，当时两艘美国战舰在另一处有争议的南海群岛帕拉塞尔群岛（Paracels，中国称西沙群岛。——译注）附近航行。北京很愤怒。

“Certain people in the U.S. are staging afarce of a thief crying, ‘Stop, thief!’ ” said Hua Chunying, a Chinese foreignministry spokeswoman. “It is self-evident to a keener eye who is militarizingthe South China Sea.”

“美国有些人……有种‘贼喊捉贼’的滑稽，”中国外交部发言人华春莹说。“到底是谁在南海推动‘军事化’，大家可以擦亮眼睛，答案不言自明。”

The United States says that it does nottake any side in territorial disputes in the South China Sea. On its maps,China uses a so-called nine-dash line to scoop out most of the waterway’s turfas its own. But international legal precedent is not on China’s side when itcomes to the dashed demarcation, a version of which was first used in the1940s.

美国表示，它不会在南海的领土争端中支持任何一方。在中国的地图上，它使用所谓的“九段线”把这条水路上的大部分领域划归己有。但是，国际法律先例并不支持中国的划界，这个划界版本最早是在1940年代使用的。



“I hope China would temper its behavior,”Mr. Duterte said. “You cannot create an island and say the air above it isyours.”

“我希望中国能够缓和自己的行为，”杜特地说。“你不能造出一个岛屿，然后说整个上空都是你的。”

Perceptions of power — and Chinesereactions to these projections — have led some analysts to criticize PresidentBarack Obama as having been too timid in countering China over what Adm. HarryB. Harris Jr., the former head of the United States Pacific Command, memorablycalled a “great wall of sand” in the South China Sea.

对力量的认识——以及中国对这些力量展示的反应——导致一些分析人士批评美国总统贝拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)反对中国在南海建造的“沙之长城”时过于胆怯——这个令人难忘的名称是美国太平洋司令部前司令小哈里·B·哈里斯(Harry B. Harris Jr.)提出的。

Critics, for instance, have faulted theprevious administration for not conducting more frequent freedom of navigationpatrols.

例如，批评者指责前政府没有进行更频繁的自由巡航。

“China’s militarization of the South ChinaSea has been a gradual process, with several phases where alternative actionsby the U.S., as well as other countries, could have changed the course ofhistory,” said Alexander Vuving, a professor at the Daniel K. InouyeAsia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu.

“中国将南海军事化是一个渐进的过程，在其中几个阶段里，美国以及其他国家的如果采取不同的行动，可能会改变历史进程，”檀香山亚太安全研究中心(Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies)的教授亚历山大·吴翁(Alexander Vuving)说。

Chief among these moments, Mr. Vuving said,was China’s takeover of Scarborough Shoal. The United States declined to backup the Philippines, a defense treaty ally, by sending Coast Guard vessels orwarships to an area that international law has designated as within thePhilippines’ exclusive economic zone.

吴翁说，在这些时刻中，最重要的是中国占领斯卡伯勒浅滩的时候。当时美国拒绝派海岸警卫队船只或战舰到这个国际法指定为菲律宾专属经济区的海域，以此支持作为国防条约盟友的菲律宾。



“Do you see any construction vessels aroundthere?” Lieutenant Coughlin asked.

“你看到周围有建筑船只吗？”考格林问道。

“Negative, ma’am,” replied Lt. JoshuaGrant, as he used a control stick to position the plane’s camera overScarborough Shoal. “We’ll see if it changes next time.”

“没有，女士，”约书亚·格兰特(Joshua Grant)上尉回答道，他操纵控制杆，将飞机相机对准斯卡伯勒浅滩。“我们下次再看看有没有变化。”