马云说中美贸易战在川普下台后还会继续，他说的对吗？这对中美来说有意义吗？（上） [美国媒体]

Is Jack Ma right that the US-China trade war will last more than Trump's presidency? Does it make sense for the US and for China?

马云说中美贸易战在川普下台后还会继续，他说的对吗？这对中美来说有意义吗？（上）


 

Paul Denlinger, worked at Forbes
Answered 13h ago
Yes, but it is not really about the US and China.
It is about the US.

他说得对，但这不是中美之间的问题，而是美国的问题。

You see, the Chinese are thinking it is all about Donald Trump, but Donald Trump is not the cause, he is just a symptom. Trump has given a voice to many white Americans who feel that they have been disenfranchised by all the changes which have taken place in the US over the past 30 years, and the reason he was elected was because the Democrats did not recognize or address their anger.

中国人以为这都是川普干的好事，但川普不是事情的原因，他不过是一个症状。很多美国人认为过去30年来所发生的变化让自己的权利被剥夺，而川普让这些美国人发出自己的声音，他之所以当选就是因为民主党人没有意识到或者说没有去解决这些白人的愤怒。



The problem with the US democratic system is that it is slow to change, and when change happens, it is often because of some earthquake which happens in society. My prediction is that US society will be ripe for some earthquakes in the next 20 years, and some of these earthquakes may be violent.

美国民主制度的问题在于改变缓慢，而当改变发生时，通常是因为社会发生了强震。我的预测是未来20年美国社会将会发生强震 ，而其中的一些强震可能是暴力性的。

In analyzing the current American situation, the concept of class struggle is very useful. It is a classic case of capital trying to lock in their interests, while labor is looking not just for leadership and a voice, but more simply, for jobs, because many of their jobs will soon be replaced by AI. In the current class struggle, not only has labor lost leverage, it has almost no leverage at all. In the US, the Democratic Party has traditionally represented labor, while the Republican Party has traditionally represented capital.

在分析美国现状时，阶级斗争的概念是非常有用的。这是资本寻找利益的经典案例，劳动者寻找的不仅是领袖和发声，更是寻找就业，因为他们的很多就业将被AI替代。在目前的阶级斗争中，劳动者不仅失去了影响力，其实根本没有影响力。在美国，传统上而言，民主党代表劳动者，而共和党代表资本。

It is very interesting, but to this day, the Marxist concept of class struggle works well for diagnosing the problems of American society.

直到今天，马克思的阶级斗争概念依旧很适合用来分析美国社会所存在的问题，这太有意思了。

When large numbers of labor lose hope, and then organize with no clear goal, you get social violence. This violence only ends when the political system reaches a new steady state which addresses some of labors’ complaints.

当大量的劳动者失去希望，并且在没有清晰目标的情况下开始组织起来时，就会发生社会暴力。只有当政治系统抵达新的稳定状态从而解决了劳动者的一些不满后，暴力才有可能结束。



This is why many smart people are leaving the US. They understand that the US is undergoing an internal struggle, and until these issues are resolved, the US is kind of a waste of time.
Better to go somewhere else which is growing so that they can be productive, and then maybe come back to the US when the political system more accurately represents the society.

所以很多聪明人现在都离开美国了。他们知道美国正在经历内部挣扎，除非这些问题得到解决，否则待在美国就是浪费时间。所以还不如去其他一些正在发展的国家，这样他们才能产生更大的价值，然后等美国的政治系统更能代表社会时再回来也不迟。