摩根大通因全面贸易战的风险减持中国股票 讨论很理性 [美国媒体]

JPMorgan Cuts China Stocks on Risks of Full-Blown Trade War

全面贸易战下美国民众对中美经济和股市的讨论 上
摩根大通因全面贸易战的风险减持中国股票



The likelihood of a “full-blown trade war" next year between the world’s two largest economies made JPMorgan Chase & Co. the latest brokerage to drop its bullish call on Chinese stocks.

全球最大的两个经济体明年可能爆发一场“全面贸易战”，这使得摩根大通成为最新一家放弃对中国股市看涨呼声的券商。

The trade conflict will only escalate as the U.S. maxes out tariffs on Chinese imports, the dollar strengthens and the yuan weakens further, JPMorgan strategists including Pedro Martins Junior, Rajiv Batra and Sanaya Tavaria wrote in a report, lowering their recommendation on China to neutral . With mainland markets shut all week for a holiday, the $4.9 billion iShares China Large-Cap ETF dropped to a two-week low in New York.

随着美国对中国进口产品征收最高关税，美元走强，人民币进一步贬值，贸易冲突只会升级。包括佩德罗·马丁斯、拉吉夫·巴特拉和萨那亚 塔瓦利亚在内的摩根大通策略分析师在一份报告中写道，他们对中国的推荐降到中性。中国内地股市因放假休市一周，纽约市场价值49亿美元的中国大盘股ETF跌至两周低点.



JPMorgan revised its forecast for economic growth in China next year to 6.1 percent from 6.2 percent. Without accounting for countermeasures, the trade war represents a 1 percentage point dent to growth, the strategists said.

摩根大通将其对明年中国经济增长的预测从6.2%修正为6.1%。策略师们说，如果不考虑对策，这场贸易战将对经济增长造成1个百分点的影响。

"Higher tariffs are squeezing Chinese manufacturing’s profit margin, reducing the investment incentive and hiring, which would then drag on consumption via reduced income," they wrote.

他们写道：“更高的关税正在挤压中国制造业的利润率，减少投资热情和雇佣员工，这将通过减少收入拖累消费。”


Casey
For the few of you who are saying, yes a strong dollar-it means US goods are higher priced as compared to other nations.

对你们中的一些人来说，是的，强势美元意味着美国商品的价格比其他国家要高。

Robert
Bite the bullet.
We will be able to afford it

咬紧牙关。
我们能负担得起

Superbig
It also means that products are cheaper for us to purchase. It’s a 2 sided coin.

这也意味着产品对我们来说更便宜。是把双刃剑。

F
During my life time, whenever there was a consistent strong dollar, there was also a strong middle class.

在我有生之年，只要有稳定的美元，就会有强大的中产阶级。



Doug
In other news , manufacturing up 4% in the US. , total jobs up, wages up, wages for each minority category up, investor confidence up, almost 4 trillion added to OUR stock market, home sales up, unemployment down, unemployment among all minorities down. Hmmmm. Thank you Trump for the deregulation, and tariffs. We finally have a president fighting for Americans.

在其他新闻中，美国制造业增长了4%。，就业总量上升，工资上升，每个少数群体的工资上升，投资者信心上升，股市增加近4万亿，房屋销售上升，失业率下降，所有少数族群的失业率下降。嗯。感谢您的减税和关税。我们终于有了一个为美国人而战的总统。

A2tocqueville
Ok wannabe eco kid. Let make it simple so even you gets it. You see we the USA are a tertiary system, and China is a secondary eco. So during a trade was
Between both, in its first stage tertiary makes more cash due to rush from tarrifs, and secondary gets hit. But due to the manufacturing relation to retail, tertiary gets hit like one year later but by at least ten folds. Ding ding school is over kid

好吧，喜欢经济的孩子。简化一下你就懂了。你看，我们美国经济是第三产业主导，中国是制造业主导。所以在贸易战期间
在这中美之间，第一阶段，服务业赚取更多的现金，第二阶段受到打击。但由于制造业与零售业的关系，第三产业在一年后受到的打击至少增加十倍。叮叮 放学了 孩子。

AD
@A2toqueville _ Not sure if your analysis holds water. China produces/supplies, US consumes (check). When there are price increases from a producer/supplier, the consumer simply purchase from other low cost producers/suppliers (US has been doing that for decades with China benefiting from that process). Where would China find replacement for US consumers? The second largest trading block with China after US is Europe which also have a trade deficit with China. There is no way they can absorb the excessive inventories currently consumed by US. Wouldn't China be in a much worse position keeping up current production without the current demands? Since China's social safety net programs are not that great, how would their economy survive with high unemployment once production is halted?

@A2toqueville 不确定你的分析是否成立。中国生产╱供应，美国消费。当生产商/供应商的涨价时，消费者只需向其他低成本生产商/供应商购买（美国几十年来一直这样做，中国从中受益）。中国在哪里找到替代美国的消费者？仅次于美国的对华第二大贸易体是对华贸易逆差的欧洲。他们不可能吸收我们目前消耗的过剩库存。如果没有当前的需求，中国的现状不是更糟糕吗？既然中国的社会保障体系并没有那么好，那么一旦停止生产，他们的经济将如何在高失业率下生存？

anthony
What a moron... the problem with this country is ignorant fools like this.
Our deficit is THROUGH THE ROOF which means inflation is going to get out of control and another recession is on the horizon.
What we are experiencing is a balloon of temporary and short term boosts to our economy by bad policy to try and make an egocentric president look good. Once his idiocy catches up to the average American worker, the white billionaires will be laughing all the way to the bank while WE foot the bill.
Please, for the love of God, educate yourselves people.

真是个白痴... 这个国家的问题就是全是像你们这样无知的傻瓜
我们的赤字超了极限，这意味着通货膨胀将失去控制，另一场衰退即将来临。我们正在经历的是，通过糟糕的政策给我们的经济带来短暂和短期的刺激。试图让一位以自我为中心的总统看上去很好，一旦他的愚蠢赶上了美国普通工人，白人亿万富翁们就会一路笑着到银行，而我们却要买单。
拜托，看在上帝的份上，好好教育你们自己吧。



D Trump
Lol, clueless idiots are using limited brains now, pathetic !

LOL，现在愚笨的白痴都在思考了，可悲！

Christopher
What happened to your beloved supply side economics. Gawd, yoi tRumptard goobers are fools.

你心爱的供给经济学怎么了。傻瓜。

Brian
Get real you pathetic idiots, support America, not your stupid agenda.

现实点你们这些可怜的白痴，支持美国，而不是你们愚蠢的想法。

jerry
China has a trade surplus with the USA of 600 billion every single year with it rising. That is 12,000,000 american jobs lost. Nobody has a problem with China selling things here, we have a huge problem with sending 12,000,000 jobs to china.

中国赚美国每年有6000亿美元取贸易顺差，而且还在上升。美国失业人数为1200万。没有人对中国在这里销售产品有意见，问题是我们向中国输送了1200万个工作岗位。

Kazutam
@Jake, you can spend a little more on American made goods or spend a lot more on Chinese made goods is what this is shaping up as.

@jake，你可以在美国制造的商品上多花一点钱，也可以在中国制造的商品上多花更多钱，这就是你最终的结果。

Dotard Dennison
We can’t even fill the available jobs in the US. Yes, we have more job openings than unemployed people in this country. Where do you suppose this 12 million people will come from if 12 million jobs were created (which is impossibly btw). The economy is worldwide. It’s not 1950 any more. The US consumer benefits bigly by cheap Chinese products, believe me.

我们甚至不能填补美国的工作空缺。是的，在这个国家，我们工作机会比失业者更多。如果创造了1200万个工作岗位（这是不可能的），你认为这1200万人将来自哪？经济是世界性的。现在不是1950年了。相信我，美国消费者从廉价的中国产品中获益匪浅。

Artair
The top 10% own 90% of American stocks. 95% of Chinese don't own any Chinese stocks. Cry me a river, it's great for all of the rest of us if the stock market crashes and reduces some of the massive income inequality out there

10%的投资者持有90%的美国股票。95%的中国人不持有中国股票。如果股市崩溃并减少了一些巨大的收入不平等现象，这对我们所有人都是件好事



AD
@Artair_ Based on your point of view, I presume that you do not have any money invested in 401(k) or IRA for your retirement. It won't be great for the those who work hard and save for retirement if the stock market crashes.

基于你的观点，我认为你没有任何资金投资在401(k)或IRA上，以备退休之需。如果股市崩溃，对那些努力工作并为退休储蓄的人来说，这将不是什么好事。

T-2
another idiot who doesn't know how financial markets work.

又一个不知道金融市场如何运作的白痴。

peter
Haha Artair would be the first to cry a river when he loses his job from a financial crash

在金融危机中失去工作后，哈哈 Artair将是第一个哭哭啼啼的人

Robert
FOOL, retirement and savings would be lost..fool.
fool u wish for the destruction of this nation and its people.

傻瓜，退休金和储蓄将会损失。..傻瓜。
愚蠢的你希望这个国家和人民毁灭。

Rob
@AD market crashes are great for ppl saving for retirement allows opportunity over the five years of a crash to double in some cases triple money towards reitrment if you have money saved.

如果你有足够的积蓄，那么在危机的五年里，如果你有机会把钱翻倍，那么在某些情况下，市场崩盘对你来说是个好机会。



rob
I missed opportunities when the market crashed in 07 bcs I just graduated college its all timing. And you better believe I am ready for the next opp if people are not doing the same its on them. As well if your retired and have your money still invested in the market thats on you. First thing i am gona do when I retire is yanking every penny out and living off the interest my money garners. Gd luck to all its on you to have a plan and to set yourself up for the future its the freedom of choice. No one to blame but yourself if you fail at it.

我错过了07年场崩溃的机会，那时我刚刚从大学毕业。你最好相信我已经准备好迎接下一次机会了，如果人们不做同样的事情，那就对他们不利。同样，如果你退休了，而且你的钱还在市场上投资，那也算一份。当我退休时，我要做的第一件事就是把每一分钱都拿出来，靠我的钱的利息过日子。幸运的是你有了一个计划，为未来做好自己的准备，这是选择的自由。如果你失败了，除了你自己，谁也不能责怪。

bob
Tell that to the millions who lost their retirement the last time the stock market crashed.

告诉那些上次股票崩溃的失业者吧。

FreeMelania
oh wow your so witty ..

@John哦，哇，你真机智。..

Brian
Which means you suck at managing your money and you are broke. Pathetic!

这意味着你在管理你的钱上糟透了并且你破产了。真可怜！

jerry
Nobody is ending trade with China, it is the trade surplus that is the problem, 12,000,000 american jobs lost to China, that has to be fixed.

没人终止对华贸易，问题在于贸易顺差，美国失去了1200万的工作岗位，这是必须解决的问题。

Al
US will suffer too much if your hope is fulfilled

如果你的希望实现了，我们美国会遭受巨大的痛苦

Bad Hombre
He does not have that power.

他没有那种能力。

Dotard Dennison
Hahaha, I?m so #$%$ that the US has been hijacked by morons in 2016.

哈哈，我真不敢相信美国在2016年被白痴劫持了。

PlayaGringo
@Dotard Dennison, our
economy is one we could only have dreamed of while Oblamer was destroying the US middle class so.... who's the real moro
n? Are you so b*tt hurt you would rather have someone that gave us a poor economy than a wealthy one?

Dotard Dennison， 奥巴马摧毁美国中产阶级的时候，我们的经济是我们唯一的梦想，所以...谁才是真正的白痴？你这么伤心吗？你宁愿要一个
给我们经济带不好的人，而不是一个带来富有的人？



y
But his daughter will be the first woman president of the US, so that means at least 16years of Chinese suffering.

但他的女儿将成为美国第一位女总统，这意味着至少16年的中国苦难。

G22 hours ago
Our markets keep climbing, more jobs produced, wages rising....and other countries are falling. Despite the biased Media’s claims,....ALL INDICATORS, FACTS, and NUMBERS SHOW AMERICA AND TRUMP ARE WINNING!!!

我们的市场持续攀升，创造了更多的就业机会，工资上涨……而其他国家在下降。尽管媒体有偏见，但是……所有的指标、事实和数据都显示美国和特朗普正在获胜！！！！

LOL
Get ready for chinese stocks’ panic sell offs when they get back from a week off of holiday. The first $50 billion tariffs wiped off more than $5 trillion of China stock markets. That’s more than four times the US debt that China owns. Just imagine how much the new $200 billion tariffs will do this time. LOL

做好准备，等中国股市休完一个星期的假回来后，就会恐慌地抛售。最初的500亿美元关税令中国股市蒸发了超过5万亿美元。这是中国国债的4倍多。想象一下这次新的2,000亿美元的关税将会带来多少好处。哈哈哈



pocket protector
you guys are whiners. China has been hosing us for year and now it is time for payback. It won't be long before we find out if the Trump haters at all cost are right or Trump wins again.

你们这些家伙是发牢骚的。一年来，中国一直在给我们泼冷水，现在是时候报复了。不久之后我们就会发现，到底是那些反对川普的人对，还是川普又赢了。