尼泊尔的转向中国策略有可能太迟了 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



Nepal’s constitutional crisis in the winter of 2015 and spring of 2016 prompted protesting parties to enforce an economic blockade in the Terai region on the Nepali-Indian border. Protesting Nepali groups included ethnic minorities thatfeel underrepresented in the new federalist system. Unofficial political support from India enabled the protests to last four-and-a-half months, debilitating the already weakened Nepali economy and creating a humanitarian crisis. CitingIndian government complicity in the embargo, Nepali Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli reached out to Beijing for help, prompting cries of a Nepali pivot to China. While some shifting towards China does seem to be underway, Nepal will always require good relations with its longtime partner India. The real story in Nepal is a possible internal security disaster that would go against Nepali, Indian, and Chinese interests.

2015 16年之交的尼泊尔宪政危机促使反对党对尼印边境的特莱地区施加经济封锁。尼泊尔人的抗议团体包括感到在新的联邦系统下未被充分代表的少数族群。来自印度的非官方的政治支持使得这次抗议持续了四个半月之久，这让尼泊尔本就被削弱的经济变得更加衰弱，甚至造成了人道主义危机。提到印度在禁运中共犯的角色后，尼泊尔总理Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli 向北京寻求帮助，引起了尼泊尔将把重心转向中国的传闻。而虽然向中国的靠拢确实看上去正在进行中，尼泊尔仍然总是需要和它的长期伙伴印度保持良好关系。而尼泊尔的现状很可能成为一场内部的安全灾难，会对中印尼三国的利益都造成损害。


-------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Liars N. Fools
There is more than a little flavor of China bad, India good in the article, and the implication seems to be that China played a role in inducing Nepal to turn away from India. But the author makes it fairly clear that India induced the Nepali "pivot" by being so pushy and subversive. Maybe the article is better entitled "Nepal: India's Bad Neighbor Policy" rather than putting the onus on Nepal.

这文章似乎有点说中国坏印度好的味道，而且好像还暗示中国在尼泊尔的政治转向上施加了影响。但是作者已经说得很清楚，是印度过于强硬并且进行颠覆活动才使得尼泊尔转向中国。这个标题最好改成“尼泊尔：印度恶劣的邻国政策”而不是把责任推到尼泊尔身上。

thesurvivor
Nepal's PM, Oli, was well known for years for being pro-India. Some even accused him for working for the RAW (India's CIA).
Even him could not stand the latest round of bullying form India.

尼泊尔总理，奥利，多年来一直以亲印着称。有些人甚至指控他为印度对外情报部门工作（印度的中情局）。
即使是他也不能容忍印度最近的这一系列压迫。

-------------译者：彼岸曼陀罗-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

prabin
very well analysis..i don't know know if you are nepali or foreigner,,but thats what majority of nepalis think. India never accepted nepal's independent status and now has openly done so by saying...."what is the use of your constitution passed by 90 % of the member of assembly, if we don't accept it??? "( a farce on democracy from the so called biggest democracy in terms of population) it just goes on creating one hypothetical problem after another.. first ... nurturing the maoists and now the madhesis... and have a straight forward policy of 1 year government at max ( anyhow) in Nepal, so that development is stalled. India is not to be solely blamed... but what can you do when it's like a direct puppet regime that India choses, blesses and kicks out after one year???

很好的分析..我不知道你是尼泊尔人还是外国人，但那是绝大多数尼泊尔人所认定的。印度从来没有承认过尼泊尔的独立地位，而现在更是公开宣称：“如果我们不接受，你们那经90%议会成员通过的宪法又有什么用？？？”（一个来自单论人口来说所谓最大民主国家的民主闹剧）。它只会在一个假设问题上创造另一个假设问题。第一...培育毛派和现在的马德西人…在尼泊尔弄一个（无论如何）最多一年期政权的持续政策，发展因而受阻。印度不应该单独承担非议…但对于印度选择的，庇佑的，而在一年后抛弃的一个直接傀儡政权，你能做什么？？？

认真看
The title was designed carefully. The aim is to increase the pressure on Nepal.

标题可是认真设计的哦。目的在于增加对尼泊尔的压力。

Headstrong
Touchy, are we? The article can't be 'implying' one thing when it clearly says another - as you yourself observed.

我们是不是有点敏感？文章不可能在明确讲述一样东西的时候去“暗示”另一样东西 - 如同你自己看到的。

 -------------译者：宁不凡-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

hothead007
GREAT MOVE BY NEPAL TO OPEN UP WITH CHINA, NOW THE COWARD, CUNNING, COW URINE BOOZER NEECH JATI HINDU RAPISTANI BANIYAS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BULLY NEPAL :)

尼泊尔向中国开放是伟大的举动, 现在胆小的，狡猾的，狂喝牛尿的阇提印度教强奸犯将不能欺负尼泊尔了。

Bihari Shrestha
There is nothing like time running out for any country. It is only a theoretical construct for strategic thinking which, in itself, happens to be a function of national leadership capacity for statesmanship. While blunder is a one-off event, India's consistent policy towards landlocked Nepal has been to render it "India-locked" and that was what it was until the recent Chinese arrival in Nepal. It has been the hegemonic Babus in New Delhi who decided it, and the stated ideological orientation of the political leadership has only been an irrelevant sideshow and did not make any difference, including lately, Mr. Modi's so-called "Neighbourhood First" policy. Basically, India has all along been a country without imagination and moral commitment to govern. That is why, even after seven full decades of independence, the country remains home to the largest number and proportion of the hungry and homeless in the world. Now with China coming into the scene as an alternative recourse to Nepal for trade and transit, Nepal's options have dramatically changed for the better. Now it is India's turn to beg with Nepal for water, flood control support, and possibly power supply. This would require of her to restore cordial relationship with the Himalayan country and the first step towards this direction would be to end her support to the Madhesi fifth columnists, presently creating disruptions in the tarai.

对于任何国家，什么也比不上时间所剩无几了。在本质上，战略思维的理论构建在本质上是国家领导能力这种政治能力的一种功能所在。虽然犯错是个一次性事件，印度对处在内陆的尼泊尔一贯政策是使之“被印度环绕”，曾经也确是如此，直到现在中国影响辐射到尼泊尔。在新德里决定这些的霸权绅士和其政治领导的既定意识形态导向已仅仅成为无关紧要的枝节问题，毫无作用，包括最近莫迪先生所谓的“邻居优先”政策。 基本上，印度一直是一个没有想象力和道德操守的国家。这就是为什么即使独立的七十年之后，该国仍然是世界上饥饿和无家可归者人数最多比例最大的国家。现在，随着中国闪亮登场，作为尼泊尔贸易和过境的一个替代性选项，尼泊尔的选择已经大大改变了。现在轮到印度向尼泊尔乞求水源，防洪支援，以及可能的电力供应了。这就需要她恢复与这个喜马拉雅国家恢复关系，并通过结束对目前在德赖制造混乱的马德西族第五专栏作家们的支持来朝这个方向迈出第一步。

 -------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Samir K. Dutt
"The Chinese model of economic engagement without political dictation is looking more effective than Indian Prime Minister Modi's “neighborhood first” policy."
You mean like in Tibet?

中国不带政令的经济交往模式看起来比印度总理莫迪的“邻居第一”政策要有效。

thesurvivor
Propaganda aside, Tibetans today live better lives than Nepalis who are constantly being bullied by India. Nepal will benefit from a closer relation with China. Most Nepalis already knew it.

除去宣传，西藏人现在过得比经常被印度欺压的尼泊尔人要好。尼泊尔会从与中国更亲密的关系中获益的。大多数尼泊尔人都懂这个道理。

thomaswalter
What you said is very true.
Look like China's political system is working extremely well.
Their economic will soon bypass US. There is no doubt about this.

你说的很对。
看起来中国的政治体系运行得非常好。
他们的经济很快将超越美国，没有疑问。

-------------译者：maggicqueen99-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Samir K. Dutt
Hmm...
Well, if the Chinese agree to live under US rule they would find themselves MUCH better off than CCP rule. Better schools, better universities, better health care, better law enforcement, better cradle to grave planning, less pollution, less corruption and so on. You get the idea. Even Taiwanese rule would be better than CCP rule.
Somehow, though, the Chinese will not peacefully agree to live under US/Taiwan rule. Could it be because people like to govern themselves no matter how much better off they would be under another's "superior" rule?
Besides, it would help to understand why Nepal and India are now at odds. Nepal's forever bickering leaders have come up with a constitution that effectively assigns an electoral weight of 5% to the 40% of Nepal's population which lives along the border with India.
India has pointed out that this unfair system will lead to instability, which India will have to deal with. Hence the tension between India and Nepal.
It's actually the caste system at work. Nepal's "high caste" Hindus, who live in the highlands, want to rule the "low caste" Hindus living along the border without having to bother with their opinions.
What should India do? You tell me.

嗯.....
好吧，如果中国人同意在美国人的统治下生活，他们会发现自己过得比在共产党统治下好得多。更好的学校，更好的大学，更好的医疗保健，更好的执法，更好的摇篮到坟墓的规划，更少的污染，更少的腐败等等。你懂的。甚至让台湾人统治，也会比共产党的统治好。
不过，不知怎么回事，中国人不愿意老老实实地在美国/台湾的统治下生活。难道是因为不管在别人"更出色"的统治下生活是不是会更好，人们仍然喜欢自己做主？
此外，这将有助于了解为什么尼泊尔和印度现在不和。尼泊尔争吵不休的领袖们想出了一个宪法，将5%的选民分配到居住在印、尼边境的那40%人口那里去。
印度指出，这种不公平的制度将导致不稳定，而印度将不得不去应对。因此印度和尼泊尔之间关系紧张。
实际上是种姓制度在发挥作用。尼泊尔的住在高地的“高种姓”的印度教徒，想要统治住在边境的“低种姓”的印度教徒，而不必理会他们的意见。
印度该怎么办？你告诉我。

-------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

YS
It appears India is well rewarded for agreeing to live under US rule: they have better infrastructure, better hygiene, longer life expectancy... OOPS! never mind....

看来印度因为同意处于美国的统治下得到了不少回报：他们有更好的基础设施，卫生条件，更长的寿命。。。哦！别介意。。。

Alan Smithee
Notice you don't mention anything about how better it is living under Indian rule? The earthquake showed the difference from Indian aid and Chinese aid.

提醒下你还没提到在印度统治下生活有多好？这地震展示了中国和印度急救水平的差异。

YS
India just can't keep its hands off its neighbors.... That's the real root of the problems in Nepal

印度就是没法把咸猪手从邻居身上拿开。。。这就是尼泊尔问题的根源。

wei
how much indian life will improve if still live under British rule?

如果印度仍在英国治下他们的生活水平会提高多少？

-------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Lichdar
India is a good example of what China would be like under a "democratic" government. The near religious belief that a democracy will self-solve all of its inherent issues with the collective ignorance of the masses is hilarious.

想象中国处于“民主”政府治下可能是什么样子，印度就是个很好的示范。这种接近宗教信仰的观点认为在民众处于集体无知的情况下民主制度可以自动解决其所有的内在问题，这种观点实在是太可笑了。

hothead007
THE COWARD, CUNNING, COW URINE BOOZERS NEECH HINDU INDIAN BANIYAS SHOULD DROWN THEMSELVES IN UNHOLY COW URINE :)

懦弱狡猾的牛尿客店印度佬应该把他们自己淹死在不净的牛尿里。

Sanjay
Narrated Anas: Some people from the tribe of 'Ukl came to the Prophet and embraced Islam. The climate of Medina did not suit them, so the Prophet ordered them to go to the (herd of milch) camels of charity and to drink their urine...

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