贸易战下美国民众争论中美经济和股市 中 [美国媒体]

JPMorgan is now forecasting an all-out trade war between China and the US — and it could cause havoc for Chinese stocks

贸易战下美国民众争论中美经济和股市 中



JPMorgan is now forecasting an all-out trade war between China and the US — and it could cause havoc for Chinese stocks

摩根大通目前预计中美之间将爆发一场全面的贸易战，这可能对中国股市造成严重破坏

"We now assume US-China trade war enters Phase III in 2019, resulting in tariffs on all +$500bn of imports from China," the note, by analysts including Pedro Martins Junior , said.

包括佩德罗·马丁斯在内的分析人士表示：“我们现在假定，美中贸易战将于2019年进入第三阶段，导致对所有从中国进口的5000亿美元产品征收关税。”



"China sectors such as energy, IT and industrials will be most impacted based on our analysis, while sectors such as real estate, insurance, diversified financials, telecom and utilities generate virtually no revenue from the U.S," the team wrote.

该研究小组写道：“根据我们的分析，中国的能源、IT和工业等行业将受到最大的冲击，而房地产、保险、多元化金融、电信和公用事业等行业几乎没有从美国获得任何收入。”

Alan
China exported $2.26 trillion dollars worth of goods and services in 2017, of which $506 billion [22%] was exported to the US. The US exported a total of $2.4 trillion dollars of goods and services in 2017, of which, only $136 billion [5.7%] was exported to China. China 2017 GDP was about $14 trillion dollars, while the 2017 US GDP in was about $19 trillion dollars.

2017年中国出口了2.26万亿美元的商品和服务，其中5060亿美元（22%）出口到了美国。2017年，美国出口的商品和服务总额为2.4万亿美元，其中只有1,360亿美元（5.7%）出口到中国。中国2017年的GDP约为14万亿美元，而美国2017年的GDP约为19万亿美元。



Susan
Eddie, Trump could still make money for himself by selling Make America #2 Again hats. They would be brown in color.

Eddie，特朗普仍然可以出售让美国成为第二的帽子为自己赚钱。它们会是棕色。

Glen
Well put Alan but we have to consider other points as well. The Chinese population is a lot more accepting of wild swings in their stock market than we are. They also are willing to accept a lot more in lack of goods then we normally are. Not to mention much of what China buys from us, they can purchase from other locations. A fair percentage of what we buy from China we do not have other sources for. So many will still buy the Chinese product but at least in the short term will pay more.

好吧，艾伦，但我们还得考虑其他的问题。中国民众比我们更能接受股市的剧烈波动。他们也通常比我们更能接受商品的缺乏。更不用说中国从美国购买的东西，他们可以从其他地方购买。在我们从中国购买的商品中，有相当一部分是我们没有其他来源的。很多人仍然会购买中国产品，但至少在短期内会花更多钱。

In addition many of the items we do purchase from China we use in products we resell. If those are for the USA, all that will change is the product will be a bit more expensive as will many of the competing products. However if that part is for export, the cost increase might price the US export out of the market and thus hurt our exports to to other locations outside of China. The sad part is that just scratches the surface of the implications of a trade war. Who knew it would be so hard, huh?

此外，我们从中国购买的产品中，有许多是用于转售的。如果这些产品是针对美国的，那么将会改变的是产品将会变得更贵一些，就像许多竞争对手的产品一样。然而，如果这部分用于出口，成本的上升可能会使美国的出口产品失去市场，从而损害我们出口到中国以外其他地方的产品。可悲的是，这仅仅是揭开了一场贸易战的表象。谁知道会这么难，是吧？

Kenny
So you proved that without China there will be empty shelves in America.No one forces these corporations to buy China products.

所以你证明了没有中国，美国的货架就会空了。 没有人强迫这些公司购买中国产品。



Then majority of Americans lose jobs. Price would skyrocket and stock market would tank to near zero. Even government and military could not function without Chinese goods. Wake up. Stop talking BS.

那么大多数美国人就会失业。价格将飙升，股市将跌至接近零。没有中国商品，政府和军队也无法运转。醒醒吧别再说废话了。

David
@eagle you are right. U.S. should just accept that China is rising to becoming an equal superpower to U.S. and learn to deal with China as an equally powerful entity. The biggest consequence would be the dollar losing its international reserves currency status, and U.S. government learning to budget its spending much much much more carefully.

Eagle你说得对。美国应该接受中国正在崛起成为一个与美国平等的超级大国，并学会将中国作为一个同等强大的实体来对待。最大的后果将是美元失去其国际储备货币地位，而美国政府则更加谨慎地做收支预算。

suga
Stock market at all-time high, tariffs result in new trade deals more beneficial to U.S., ongoing talks with N. Korea, minority employment at all-time highs--THIS is real news. We finally have a president who is an experienced businessman, knows how to negotiate a deal, and puts the U.S. FIRST.

股市创下历史新高，关税带来了对美国更有利的新贸易协议，与朝鲜的谈判正在进行，少数族裔的就业达到历史新高，这是真实的新闻。我们终于有了一位经验丰富的商人，懂得如何谈判达成协议，并把美国放在首位的总统。

Mr. Aloha
Ok- then why the $12B in aid to farmers- if all is well?

好吧——如果一切顺利，那为什么向农民提供的价值12亿美元的援助呢？

Wanting To Understand
Bring on the trade war. It is decades over due. If we have to pay a little more for awhile to get a fair deal set with China, so be it. I do not understand why many people are fine with China taking advantage of America? Thank you Mr. Trump for looking out for America's best interest.

发动贸易战。已经过了几十年了。如果我们需要多付一点代价来和中国达成公平的协议，那就这样干吧。我不明白为什么很多人对中国利用美国感到满意？谢谢你，川普先生，为美国的最大利益着想。

mikel
So what is your point? Trade is not about apple for apple, it is all about apple for orange or something else. It is all about market force, it is normal to some countries with trade surplus, some with deficit.

你想说什么？贸易不是苹果换苹果，而是苹果换橘子什么的，这完全是市场力量的结果，这对一些有贸易顺差的国家和一些有逆差的国家来说是正常的。



Jay
@flemster China is trying to move away from manufacturing...

flemster 中国正试图摆脱制造业…

Bruce
Our trade deficit with China is essentially perfectly correlated with the strength of our economy.

我们对华贸易逆差根本上与我们的经济实力完全相关。

Alan
David, my point has nothing to do with superpower status. It has to do with righting a lopsided trade imbalance with a country that subsidizes its' major industries and balks at making bilateral trade agreements. But to address your position, the US can only lose by eliminating tariffs. Ironically, the very strength the US has in this economic battle is we don't export much to China relative to our GDP. Not only that, at least some of the revenue the US Treasury lost to Congress lowering income taxes will be recouped from tariffs vendors and consumers pay on imported Chinese goods. It really can be a win-win for the US if we have the resolve to continue on. It's not magic, nor brilliant thinking, it's economic logic and it can ultimately work.

大卫，我的观点与超级大国的地位无关。这与纠正贸易不平衡有关，因为这个国家补贴本国的主要产业，并阻碍双边贸易协定的达成。但为了解决你的问题，美国只能通过取消关税来减少损失。具有讽刺意味的是，美国在这场经济战中的优势在于，相对于国内生产总值，我们对中国的出口并不多。不仅如此，美国财政部因国会降低所得税而损失的收入中，至少有一部分将从供应商和消费者为进口中国商品支付的关税中收回。如果我们有决心继续下去，这对美国来说确实是一个双赢。这不是魔术，也不是聪明的想法，这是经济逻辑，它最终会发挥作用。



Alan
@Eddie, I'm NOT a Trump supporter. The core of my hypothesis is, China hurts it's economy significantly more by not expanding US business in China than the US economy suffers from China tariffs/boycotts on US products. Most of what the US exports to China is agriculture products. It will probably hurt the US initially, particularly US agriculture. But over the long haul, it will be China who makes meaningful trade offers for the US to discontinue our tariffs. If I'm wrong, what difference does it make. Like you, I don't make policy, I just play the game.

Eddie，我不是川普支持者。我的假设的核心是，中国不扩大美国在华业务，对中国经济的伤害比美国经济遭受中国对美国产品的关税/抵制要大得多。美国向中国出口的大部分产品是农产品。这可能最初会伤害美国，特别是美国的农业。但从长远来看，受伤害的是提出了有意义的贸易提议，要求美国停止征收关税的中国。如果我错了，又有什么区别呢。像你一样，我不制定政策，我只是参与者。

Eagle
People that hates trade hates American companies (most of which survive by trading) because they source products from overseas. But without these companies making a huge profit (through taking advantage of overseas cheap labor), how could they hire people in stores, shops, markets, contractor jobs? Even a lot of government jobs, military jobs, and US factories and companies that is manufacturing domestically depend on imported parts.

那些憎恨贸易的人憎恨美国公司（其中大部分靠贸易生存），因为他们从海外采购产品。但如果没有这些公司（通过利用海外廉价劳动力）的巨大利润，他们怎么能在商店、商店、市场和承包商的工作中雇佣员工呢？甚至许多政府工作，军事工作，美国工厂和公司的制造依赖于进口零部件。

These are all the jobs that US has (jobs that rely on imported goods). How could you win a trade war by cutting profits of these companies and essentially undermining their ability to hire American workers? How could you win a trade war to stoke inflation by letting consumers pay 25% more?

这些是美国所有的工作（依靠进口货物来的工作）。你怎样才能通过削减这些公司的利润来赢得一场贸易战，并从根本上削弱他们雇佣美国工人的能力？你怎么能赢得一场贸易战，让消费者多付25%的钱来刺激通货膨胀呢？



Alan
@Gary, insofar as actual dollars spent on imports and gained from exports from Hong Kong, the end result is the same. Hong Kong is part of China and it's only semantics that separate the two. Unless The United States Census Bureau is misleading us, they reported the US had a -$375.6 billion dollar trade deficit with China in 2017 and a -$222.6 billion dollar trade deficit with China from January thru July, 2018. Nuff said.

@Gary就实际花费在进口上的美元和从香港出口中获得的收益而言，最终结果是一样的。香港是中国的一部分，这只是语义学上的区别。除非美国人口普查局误导美国，否则他们报告说，2017年，美国对中国的贸易逆差为3756亿美元，从1月到2018年7月，对中国的贸易逆差为2226亿美元。

maritoni
Wait until China really starts playing rough and ignores copyrights and floods the world market with low cost versions of our pharmaceuticals and software products. That'll do some real damage, but on the upside, many people won't die because of greed of drug companies.

等到中国真正开始粗暴行事，无视版权，并向世界市场投放低价版本的药品和软件产品。这会造成真正的损害，但从好的方面看，许多人不会因为制药公司的贪婪而死。

Teddy
@maritoni China already ignores a lot of copyrights. It is notorious for that.

中国忽视了大量的版权。因此臭名昭着。



Steve
The trade disparity with China should've been taken care of a long time ago! It's not Trump's fault, we can no longer take on this kind of debt annually! Absolutely correct Alan!

和中国的贸易差距早就该解决了！这不是特朗普的错，我们不能再每年承担这种债务了！绝对正确Alan！

ARTHUR J M
if the stop exporting and stealing, then they lose jobs alan.

如果停止出口和偷窃，他们就会失去工作， alan。

Republican(USA) Democrat(China)
6 of the past prez made china rich, now 1 prez is taking it back...

过去的六任总统让中国变得富有,现在的这一次总统扭转回来了

Bob
Dumb Republicans blame this (and everything else) on Obama. This problem has been growing for 30 years. You can help to put a stop to it by encouraging US manufacturers and retailers to sell thing that don't say "Made in China."

愚蠢的共和党人将此（和其他一切）归咎于奥巴马。这个问题已经持续了30年。你可以通过鼓励美国制造商和零售商销售没有“中国制造”的产品来帮助制止这种现象。

Chuck
@Bob Republicans are not blaming only Obama. It was policies by the government in a whole that allowed this to start, continue, and ruin fair trade. Obama didnt do anything to level the playing field. He didnt have the guts!

@Bob 共和党人并不仅仅指责奥巴马。正是政府的政策使这一切得以开始、继续和破坏公平贸易。奥巴马并没有为公平贸易环境做任何事情。他没有勇气！

Low energy Alexon
I am planning to open small sewing factory in US and you Alan is welcome to apply for night shift labor position to solve trade disbalance

我计划在美国开一家小缝纫厂，欢迎你来申请夜班工作，解决贸易不平衡问题

glenn
It isn't so easy to have a simple result. Even so trading value is different according to China statistic.

要有一个简单的结果并不容易。尽管如此，根据中国的统计，交易额是不同的。



When America's economy tanks right along with China's, think back to you post. And oh, did I mention China hold 2 trillion dollars of America's debt? There were better ways to solve the trade issue with China. Obama had a good one but his trade deal (TIPP) had 3 problems:
1. It was made by a black man.
2. It had Obama's name on it.
3. Trump's marching orders from the GOP was to destroy EVERYTHING with a black

当美国的经济和中国的经济一起崩溃时，回想一下你的帖子。哦，我提到过中国持有2万亿美元的美国国债吗？有更好的办法来解决与中国的贸易问题。奥巴马有一个很好的方案，但他的贸易协议(TIPP)有三个问题：
1.是一个黑人做的。
2.上面有奥巴马的名字。
3.川普来自共和党的命令是摧毁一切有黑人名字的东西不管有没有意义。

Dan
punch them to the point they can't rise again

打得他们无法再站起来

man's name on it whether it made sense or not.
This whole China/U.S. trade war is like watching two people hold knifes to their necks while pointing a gun at each other while idiots look on and cheer. Years from now, after we are all long dead, historians will still be trying to figure this out... LOL.

这场中美贸易战就像看着两个人用刀抵着脖子，用枪指着对方，而白痴们则看着欢呼。若干年后，在我们都死了很久之后，历史学家们仍然会试图找出答案... LOL.