美国注定失败的中国战略 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：雨绿草-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



Two developments in the past month indicate that Washington’s mixed policy of engagement and containment (or “congagement”) toward China has begun to tilt more toward containment. The first development was the visit of Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter to India in mid-April and the signing of a bilateral cooperation agreement on military logistics. The other episode is President Obama’s just-completed trip to Vietnam and the announced lifting of the long-standing arms embargo on that country. As usual American officials insist that the marked change in U.S. policy toward Hanoi is not in any way directed against China. But such statements strain credulity especially when viewed in the larger context of U.S. warships conducting “freedom of navigation” patrols in the South China Sea and bluntly reminding Beijing of America’s security obligations to the Philippines under a bilateral defense treaty.

过去一个月来的两个事态发展表明，华盛顿对中国接触和遏制的这两个战略已开始向遏制倾斜。一个是国防部长艾什顿·卡特在四月中旬访问印度，并签署了在军事物流上的双边合作协议。另一个是奥巴马总统刚结束越南之旅，并宣布解除长期以来对越的武器禁运。像往常一样，美国政府坚持认为，这次对河内政策的显着变化不是以任何形式在针对中国。但此番说辞更加不能轻信，尤其是看到美国军舰在这个大背景下，打着“航行自由”的名号在中国南海巡逻，还直言提醒北京，在双边防御条约下，美国对菲律宾有安全保护的义务。

 -------------译者：天枢璇玑-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

The containment side of U.S. policy has gone from merely assembling some of the necessary components to be activated at a later date if necessary (first gear) to the initial phase of activation (second gear). More emphasis is likely to be placed on China as a serious strategic competitor if not an outright adversary. But developing any kind of a containment policy against China is almost certain to prove hopelessly difficult. Despite the sometimes inflammatory rhetoric coming from Donald Trump and some other China bashers the bilateral economic relationship remains quite extensive and crucial. China is America’s second largest trading partner. In 2015 the United States exported $116 billion in goods to China while importing $482 billion. Disrupting that relationship would be extremely costly and painful for both countries.

美国的遏制政策已然升级，从联合一些必要成员，为未来的遏制行动做准备（第一档），到如今逐渐开始遏制措施（第二档）。即使美国不将中国看成是完全的敌人，也将可能越来越多的将中国看成是一个严肃的战略竞争对手。不过任何一种针对中国的遏制政策都被证明非常的困难。不管是川普还是其他针对中国的抨击者发表的煽动性言论，也很难撼动如今愈发紧密的中美双边经贸关系。中国是美国第二大贸易伙伴。在2015年，美国对华出口1160亿美元，进口4820亿美元。破坏这种关系对两国而言都将付出极大的代价。

That point underscores one key reason why reviving anything even faintly resembling the Cold War–era containment policy that worked against the Soviet unx is a hopeless quest. America’s economic relations with the USSR were minuscule so there was little sacrifice on that front in taking a hardline stance against Moscow. That is clearly not the case today regarding America’s economic connections to China.

为何重演类似冷战时期针对苏联的围堵政策是很难实现的？很关键的原因就在于，当时美国和苏联的经济关系可以忽略不计，美国对莫斯科施展强硬手段不会让自己牺牲太大，而当今中国与美国联系之紧密，与前苏联不可同日而语。


-------------译者：彼岸曼陀罗-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

don ottrack R26; 4 days ago
good thesis. in NBA nomenclature it is impossible to beat Michael Jordan's record. the MJ of Global Superpower is the British Empire which lasted a hundred years then faded out. the world has always been multi-polar. regional powers dominate their respective regions. US should focus resources at "home" "home" is the Americas (from Canada to Uruguay) and let the Europeans Asians Africans settle affairs of their own regions. if we don't even have the resources to fix our roads bridges water system veterans healthcare and you want $ to "contain" China "contain" Russia "contain" Iran "contain" (fill in the blank). this is INSANE!!

很好的论点。在NBA术语中，迈克尔乔丹的纪录不可攻破。全球超级大国中的迈克尔乔丹则是历经百年风光然后日落西山的大英帝国。世界一直是多极的。区域大国们主宰各自领域。美国应该把精力集中在“家”里。“家”是指美洲（从加拿大到乌拉圭），让欧洲人亚洲人非洲人处理他们自己地区的事情。如果我们甚至没有资源来解决我们的道路桥梁供水系统退伍军人医疗保健，而你还想要美刀去“包含”中国“牵制”俄罗斯“牵制”伊朗“牵制”（填空）。这是精神失常！！

-------------译者：彼岸曼陀罗-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

cieara R26; 4 days ago
They have achieved the capability and capacity to neutralize US war gears the deterrence should be obvious. In fact recent news on Pentagon and US think tanks examined extensively just that.
China is only to assert her sovereignty and openly stated they have no intention in the silly primacy status (who need that?) and agree to maintain the long practice of US naval presence in the region. Apparently that is not enough for the egos of US.
Without real strength to strong arm China what US can expect off the current policy is clearly very limited.
In the near future US will not gain strength and growth unless the education system can supply large numbers of high quality hi-tech talent pools.

他们已经取得了可抵消美国战备的能力和能量，威慑显而易见。事实上，最近的消息称五角大厦和美国智库针对此做了广泛的研究。
中国只是为了维护自己的主权，并公开声明他们不打算取得那个什么愚蠢的霸主地位（谁要啊？）并同意继续保留美海军在该地区的长期存在。显然这是不够安抚美国的自尊。
如果没有真正的实力强压中国，美国对现有政策所能期望的显然非常有限。
在不久的将来，除非教育系统能够提供大量高质量的高科技人才储备，美国将无法获得力量和增长。

-------------译者：布拉格鸽子蛋-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Gnostic  cieara R26; 4 days ago
The Chinese might want to stop threatening anyone who comes close to their sand islands.

中国人也许想停止威胁那些接近他们沙岛的人。 
 
thesurvivor  Gnostic R26; 4 days ago
US navy traveled 14000 KM to get threaten by China. I am so sorry!

 美国海军长途跋涉1万4千公里来受中国威胁（译者：确定不是抖M?）。我很抱歉！
 
Gnostic  thesurvivor R26; 4 days ago
Save your apology for the Filipino fishermen.

把你的抱歉留给菲律宾渔民吧。 
 
thesurvivor  Gnostic R26; 4 days ago
If Philippines negotiate with China I am sure some kind of fishery agreement can be reached. Hope the new president does that. If they choose to be a US proxy hosting US gunboats then this is the situation we are in now.

如果菲律宾与中国谈判，我肯定他们能达成某种渔业协议。希望菲律宾的新总统能这么做。但如果他们选择做美国的出头鸟的话，就只好是目前这种状况了。

-------------译者：维以-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Gnostic  thesurvivor R26; 4 days ago
So freedom of navigation is dependent on giving something to China.... Exactly my point. There is no freedom of navigation. This is why even Vietnam wants to be friends with the US. China lies don't change facts.

 如此说来航运自由要靠送些东西给中国...我也是这么看的。没有什么航运自由，这就是为什么越南想要成为美国的朋友。中国的谎言无法改变事实。
 
thesurvivor  Gnostic R26; 2 days ago
There are endless fishing disputes with in the water...Philippines vs Malaysia Malaysia vs Vietnam Indonesia vs Vietnam Philippines vs Indonesia.. U make it sounds so simple.

水域中又无穷无尽的渔业纠纷...菲律宾vs马来西亚  马来西亚vs越南 印尼vs越南 菲律宾vs印尼...图样图森破 
 
dusjanbe  Guest R26; 4 days ago
No problem by showing the true face it's better to deal with. Like the German or Japanese in the 20th century rearing their ugly ultranationlist face up for the whole world to see.

 就算露出真面目也没关系，有利于更好地处理这些事。正如20世纪德国和日本向全世界展露出的极端种族主义分子丑恶的嘴脸。

If China get a Putin then he would end up Leopoldo Galtieri after several catastrophic millitary adventure he will be finnished anyway

如果中国产生了普京那样的领导人，那么他会像莱奥波尔多·加尔铁里那样经过几次灾难性的军事冒险后玩完。

-------------译者：维以-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

RT Myths Debunked R26; 5 days ago
Strange article.
Expansionist unelected regimes like the CCP should be contained. However the U.S. is clearly not containing it despite having the ability to stop them right now.
That's the problem. The U.S. needs to do more which is what multiple states are asking of it.

 奇怪的文章
像中共这种未经选举的扩张政权就应该被遏制。美国虽然具备这种能力却迟迟不出手。这就是问题所在。美国需要采取更多行动，这正是亚洲众多国家所期望的。
 
TBL  RT Myths Debunked R26; 4 days ago
CIA's internet propaganda troll is hard at work again earning his dimes per word count disseminating propaganda against all perceived US enemies!

 美国中央情报局的宣传机器再次致力于抵抗所有美国的敌人，以此获得每字几毛钱。

Even worse is that he is trying to cover up for the fascist warmongering belligerent all-conquering US regime. It is fun to really see how CIA internet trolls operate :D

更糟的是他尝试包庇好战的美国法西斯政权。看到中央情报局网络机器运行很滑稽。

-------------译者：天枢璇玑-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
 
Joe Wong  RT Myths Debunked R26; 4 days ago
The imperialist unrepresentative regime in the Washington Beltway needs to restrained in straitjacket they are waging reckless wars around the world on fabricated phantom WMD allegations since WWII they have been causing hundreds of millions of death maimed and haunted those war criminals need to be prosecuted in the ICJ.

位于华府的这种帝国主义政权急需被制约。他们总是不计后果地在世界上挑起战争，借口却是毫无依据的“大规模杀伤性武器”。自二战以来，他们造成亿万的伤亡，令无数人深陷困顿。这些战争罪行本该交由国际法院审判。
 
life form  Joe Wong R26; 4 days ago
The Cultural Revolution called from 1970 and the said you borrowed all their adjectives please return them.

 想想1970年的文革，你引用的哪些措辞请原封不动地还回去吧。
 
Michael Nunez  life form R26; 4 days ago
Ask him to re-bury the Bones he keeps for souvenirs....... .

请让他把作为纪念品珍藏的骨头埋回去吧

-------------译者：布拉格鸽子蛋-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Ted  Joe Wong R26; 4 days ago
When are you going to draw Japan into this?

你打算什么时候把日本也拉拢进来？ 
 
Sand_Cat  Joe Wong R26; 4 days ago
So the regime in Beijing is neither imperialist nor unrepresentative? What have you been smoking?

 所以中国政权既不是帝国主义也不具有代表性？你嗑错什么药了？
 
veenoom  RT Myths Debunked R26; 5 days ago
Yes multiple states indeed are expecting the U.S. to do more but of course that is with American lives and American taxpayer’s money.

是的，很多国家确实希望美国能做更多事，不过当然，这关乎到美国人民及其纳税人的钱。

-------------译者：维以-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

RT Myths Debunked  veenoom R26; 5 days ago
Well if history is any indicator then we are talking about an investment which will pay dividends.
Don't forget the U.S. tried being relatively isolationist for most of its history.
The U.S. kept getting attacked and/or otherwise dragged into wars by unelected expansionist regimes.

如果历史是个指示器那么我们现在谈论的就是一个终将付股息的投资 。
不要忘了美国历史上大部分时间都试着成为孤立分子。
美国一直被攻击，或者被未经选举的扩张政权拖入战争。

After WWII the U.S. finally had enough and decided to save the world by guaranteeing freedom of navigation with its Navy and Air Force and allowed friend and foe alike to export their way back to affluence by opening the U.S. market and encouraging others to do the same.

二战后美国终于忍无可忍，决定让美国空军和海军保证航行自由的方式来拯救世界，并且不管是敌是友都可以进入美国市场从而让所有国家变得富裕，并鼓励其他国家也开放市场。

-------------译者：maggicqueen99-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

China Cowboys  RT Myths Debunked R26; 4 days ago
Is it Assad a elected leader from Syria? Yes Why US have to remove him don't give me he used chemical this is not UN have reported it. It have nothing to do with elected government it is only US and US does not want someone in charge that against US policy like the one in Ukraine Thailand etc

阿萨德是叙利亚的民选领袖吗？是的，为什么美国要除掉他，不要跟我说他使用了化学武器，联合国报告中没有提到过。除掉阿萨德和民选政府无关，只和美国有关。美国不希望任何反对美国的政策的人掌权，比如泰国、乌克兰等国家的领导。

The bloody oil have killed many people like the 3 years old boy name Charlie whom die on the Turkey beach.

带血的石油杀死了很多人，就像死在土耳其海滩的名叫查理的3岁小男孩。
 
AlexJW  China Cowboys R26; 4 days ago
In reality Assad inherited the presidency (monarchy) from his father when he died. Oil? What oil in Syria? And the U.S. is taking charge of oil production now not that you'd know that.
You can't have elections for a dictator with no free press and open voter suppression.
The Assad family monarchy has never settled for less than 97% fraud elections in the past 40 years!

在现实中，阿萨德在他父亲去世时继承了其总统（君主）职位。石油？叙利亚的什么石油？现在美国正负责生产石油，你该知道的呀。
你不可能为没有新闻自由和公开对选民压制的独裁者选举。
在过去40年里，阿萨德家族的君主政体从未解决过不到97%的选举舞弊！

-------------译者：布拉格鸽子蛋-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

China Cowboys  AlexJW R26; 3 days ago
What about new Philippine president? US try very hard to hammer him for the last 5 weeks what about Thailand Yingluck?

菲律宾的新总统呢？过去5周美国狠狠的敲打他。 泰国前总理英拉呢？
 
Saron Pos  RT Myths Debunked R26; 5 days ago
Very simple. US ships needs ram china's boats trying to build on south china seas. china must NOT be allowed to build on south china seas. The US is not willing to ram their boats. China often ram other nations' fishing boats and sank Vietnamese phillippines Taiwanese fishing boats and drive them away. But the US is not willing to ram china boats. Thus china is building and expanding.

很简单。美国需要猛撞那些试图建设南海的中国船只。绝不允许中国在南海造岛。美国不愿意撞他们的船。中国经常猛撞其他国家的渔船，把越南、菲律宾和台湾的渔船撞沉，并把渔民赶跑。但是美国不愿意撞中国的船，所以中国不断建设并扩张。

-------------译者：布拉格鸽子蛋-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

RT Myths Debunked  Saron Pos R26; 5 days ago
Oh they do more than mere ramming. Since January 1974 the CCP has used all manner of violence to kick out and occupy ocean features of other states.

噢！他们做的可不仅仅是撞船！自从1974年1月以来，GCD已经通过各种暴力方式赶跑并侵占了其他国家的海洋资源。

The U.S. isn't building artificial real estate and/or ramming Chinese ships because it's not trying to start a fight but the U.S. will only be pushed so far before it pushes back - hard.

美国没有建立人工岛和（或）冲撞中国船只，因为她不想开战。但是不要把美国给惹毛了，否则美国绝对用力回击。

Let's just hope it doesn't take an attack upon a carrier with 6000 Americans onboard to finally wake up the U.S.

现在我们只希望中国不要攻击一艘载有6000名美国人的航母来警醒美国。