这将成为中国的巴拿马运河吗？ [美国媒体]

-------------译者：天枢璇玑-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



President Obama’s trip to Vietnam was ostensibly focused on the importance of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in the Asia-Pacific region. However it is quite certain that the visit had a powerful subtext: strengthening the partnership between Washington and Hanoi to offset Beijing’s aggressive approach to the South China Sea. The Chinese reef reclamation projects that resulted in shiny new and large airstrips coupled apparently with deep water berths for ships have set the whole region on edge.

奥巴马总统访问越南表面上是在表达对亚太地区TPP（跨太平洋伙伴关系协定）的重视。无论如何，我们可以肯定这次访问还在传递一个强力的潜台词：加强华盛顿与河内的合作伙伴关系，以应对北京方面对于南海咄咄逼人的手段。中国的围海造岛工程成功地建成了一条崭新的飞机跑道，同时还拥有了允许大吨位船舶停靠的深水泊位，这无疑占据了整个地区的优势。

Two years ago a crisis occurred between China and Vietnam that was reminiscent of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo. The China-Vietnam crisis was comprised of hundreds of paramilitary vessels a rising superpower’s untested leader and plenty of nationalist bile on both sides. Both liberal internationalists and bellicose realists are looking forward in the coming months to resolution of the arbitration in the Hague brought by the Philippines against China but it is far from clear that this legal ruling will calm the turbulent waters of the South China Sea. However readers may also consider the possibility that all the above theatrics could well be a sideshow for the main act.

2年前，中国和越南之间爆发了危机，这不禁让人联想到萨拉热窝斐迪南大公遇刺案。中越危机中包含有上百艘在西沙钻井平台附近对峙的船只，还有中国的新上任的领导，以及中越双方大量的民族主义者。自由的国际主义者和好战的现实主义者都期待在未来的数月内，海牙国际仲裁法庭可以对菲律宾针对中国所递交的诉状进行裁决。然而即便有了法律规则，也很难平息南海水域的纷争。
不管怎样，你们或许会认为上述所有的表现不过是一个冲突升级前的小插曲。

-------------译者：买买提木乃伊-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

A spate of articles appeared in late 2015 in Chinese that discussed in reasonably detailed terms the opportunity to build the long anticipated canal across the Isthmus of Kra in Thailand. It seems widely held among Chinese sources that the project may “become an international golden waterway” [成为国际黄金水道]. If built the new canal could have a major impact on both the commercial and strategic landscape of the entire region. At a minimum the canal could move the locus of dynamic regional and global maritime trade hundreds of miles to the north but it could also serve as a major enabler for China’s ambitious “one belt one road” [一带一路] strategy as well. This edition of Dragon Eye will examine some Chinese perspectives n this possibility.

一系列相当详细的商讨建造长久期待的穿越泰国克拉地峡的运河的文章出现在2015年，在中国，，在中国的消息源中，这一项目普遍被认为"成为国际黄金水道"。如果建成，这条水道将对整个地区的商业和战略图景产生重大影响。至少该水道将把区域和全球的海上贸易轨迹向北推移数百英里，而且将大大的推动中国雄心勃勃的“一路一带”战略。本期的《龙之眼》就从中国人的视角来查看这种可能性。


-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

marti R26; 13 hours ago
Having read thru this article it makes perfect sense why China is building bases in the Spratly Islands. The South China sea is China's Achilles tendon since 60% of its trade passes thru this bottleneck.
Presently the only power with the capacity to strangulate China's trade is the US with bases in the Phillippines Guam Japan and S Korea and now the arming of Vietnam and India

 通过阅读这篇文章能完全感觉到中国为什么要建设南沙群岛的原因。南中国海是中国的要塞，因为60%的中国贸易要通过此咽喉、
唯一有能力阻挠中国贸易的是美国，因为美国在菲律宾，关岛，日本和韩国都设有基地，而且现在又在武装印度和越南。
 
ashleyhk  marti R26; 11 hours ago
You don't know the difference between an Achilles tendon and an Achilles heel?
LOL

楼上的，你成语都用错了，哈哈。
 
 
Blargh  marti R26; 12 hours ago
China should start funding ISIS haha.

中国应该开始资助ISIS了。

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

John T  Blargh R26; 5 hours ago
China is not a terrorist like you...haha

中国并不像你一样是个恐怖分子。
 
Joe Wong R26; a day ago
China brings nation building projects to nations in SE Asia for the purpose of increase commercial activities and improve local people's living standards thru trickling-down effects it is a win-win model for all nations participate in China's peaceful rise.

中国正在逐步将基础建设工程引进东南亚国家各个，此举是为了促进商贸活动和改善当地人生活水平，通过滴水穿石带来双赢的效果，促进各个国家参与中国的和平崛起。
 
Can the USA also be part of the team that make peace harmony cooperation development and mutual benefits the trend of our times? USA selling weapons to the SE Asia nations and arming an unrepentant war criminal with nuclear weapons definitely is not the constructive way to make peace harmony cooperation development and mutual benefits the trend of our times.

难道美国会参与目前这项合作共赢并成为其中的一员吗？美国只会卖武器给东南亚各个国家，通过核武器资助一个不知悔改的战争国家（指日本）并不是一个有建设性的方式来促进目前的合作共赢趋势。

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
 
Bob Burns  Joe Wong R26; 15 hours ago
Sigh. Yes we all hope and wait for US to quit being a bully

好吧，我们都期待美国放弃欺凌行为。
 
GreetBigBalls  Joe Wong R26; 13 hours ago
Only losers need to improve local people's living standards.
Winners beat them into submission and take their resources through warfare. For example we spent $1.7 trillion in Iraq but our economy as a whole made $5.1 trillion through sales of Iraq's oil fields to American oil companies speculation on oil futures and monopolizing oil trade because after the war OPEC no longer has the guts to defy our wishes

只有失败者需要改善当地人民的生活水准。
赢着只会把他们打到服从并掠夺他们的资源。例如，我们在伊拉克投入了1.7万亿美元，但是通过将伊拉克油田卖给美国石油公司，投机石油期货，以及垄断石油贸易等方式，我们的经济总体上增长了5.1万亿美元，因为战后欧佩克组织再也没有胆量反抗我们的意愿。

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Bucky the katt  Joe Wong R26; 17 hours ago
Thais hesitate to allow Beijing to construct the Kra Canal as the Chinese analyst quoted in the above article rightly observed as once they invite in Beijing or CCP gangs in that area next thing they would do is of course to claim sovereignty. 'You see we found ancient Chinese ceramics in Songkla and in Hatyai! Southern Thailand is China since the ancient times!!' Good grief

正如上文中国专家所分析的那样，泰国当局很犹豫是否邀请中国建设卡拉运河，担心一旦北京当局进入这片区域便会宣称对该区域的主权。中国当局会宣称在宋卡、合艾发现了中国瓷器，所以南泰国地区自古就是中国领土。

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Bob Burns  Bucky the katt R26; 15 hours ago
Win-win thru economic development is the better way

通过经济合作实现双赢是最好的道路。
 
Vijayan John  Bob Burns R26; 7 hours ago
Unfortunately that is not the Chinese way.

不幸的是，这不是中国办事方式。
 
MMCRailgun  Joe Wong R26; 7 hours ago
You do realize that it was and is under the system established by the United States after WWII that China has risen and continues to rise economically right? And no it wouldn't have happened otherwise as the odds of us trading with them (the source of their growth) would have been much less likely for strategic reasons and there would be much more tariffs then today on Chinese goods for their unfair trade practices at home.

二战后美国所建立的体系才促成了今天中国经济的发展。否则的话，出于战略考量，我们与中国贸易的可能性会大大降低，而由于中国在国内采取的不公正的贸易行为，我们也会对来自中国的进口商品征收更高的关税。

 -------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Joe Wong  MMCRailgun R26; 5 hours ago
USA does not get to be rich if they give only US' rich is the result of they take more than give it is simple accounting. If the US wants to claim it is the sole benefactor of China's economic miracle it only shows the Americans are accounting illiterate and claiming credit where credit is not due.

如果美国付出比收获多那么美国不会变得富有，这个道理很简单。如果美国宣称自己是中国经济奇迹的唯一恩人，这不仅说明美国人算术差而且说明美国人爱抢功劳。
 
Meanwhile free trade sucks to the 99% of the human beings managed trade is much fairer all around. USA should break off WTO and all free trade deals as soon as possible to protect the jobs for the Americans.

同时，自由贸易不利于99%的人类。管理贸易更加公平。美国应尽快抛弃WTO和所有的自由贸易协议以保护国内的就业。
 
MMCRailgun  Joe Wong R26; 3 hours ago
Most of what you said is garbage. First off I said that it is thanks to trade with America the China has risen economically not that America has been the "sole benefactor" of anything.

 你们大部分说的都是没用的。首先我的意思是中国应该感谢同美国的贸易使经济获得增加，而不是说美国是唯一的恩人。

Next off you do realize that if we broke from the WTO trade wars would flare up and China with its disgusting protectionist policies despite enjoying so much access to other's markets would be hit hard by the likes of tariffs right?

其次你确实意识到如果我们脱离WTO，贸易战将会打响，中国在自由进入其他市场的同时自己却采取恶心的贸易保护政策，届时中国商品肯定也会面临高关税不是吗？

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Meo Meo  Joe Wong R26; 3 hours ago
Yes of course if China doesn't wanna claim the whole SCS as its own lake. That's the problem. China like Japan in WWII has shot itself in the foot by trying to grab other nations' territories. If you don't back down you wil get smacked down by a joined force of a dozen countries like what Japan got in WWII.
 
 是的，如果中国不打算宣称整个南中国海为自己的。问题在于，中国像二战的日本一样，在掠夺其他国家领土的时候开枪射伤了自己的脚。如果中国不自己后退的话，那么它将向二战的日本一样被其它盟国迎头痛击。

Bill  Joe Wong R26; 13 hours ago
You are wrong Wong you troll

 小伙子，你说错啦。
 
John T  Bill R26; 5 hours ago
NO You are wrong balls the troll
 
 不，小屁孩你才说错了。

C B Teoh R26; 12 hours ago
Suggestion of Kra Canal is the Chinese way to punish Singapore a pro-America island nation.

中国正是想用建设卡拉运河来惩罚新加坡的亲美国政策。

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

thesurvivor R26; 18 hours ago
A Kra Canal do not solve the Malacca Strait dilemma for China. It only shift the dilemma north by a few 100 KM. China will solve the problem by adding more ships to the navy buying more oil from Russia and central Asia.

卡拉运河的建设并不能解决中国的马六甲海峡困局，只是将困局北移了100公里。要解决这个问题，中国只能增加更多的海军军舰以便从俄罗斯和中东购买更多石油。
 
Bob Burns  thesurvivor R26; 15 hours ago
And seaports in Burma and Pakistan

还有 在缅甸和和巴基斯坦建立海港。
 
Zsari Maxim  thesurvivor R26; an hour ago
To blockade two channels instead of one means counter-blockade has the advantage in concentrated force. Of course adding more ship is also necessary.

封锁两条通道而不是一条，这意味着反封锁的一方具有集中力量的优势。当然增加更多的海军舰艇也是非常必要的。

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

thesurvivor  Zsari Maxim R26; an hour ago
US will most probably set up their blockade north in the Andaman sea. Traffic to the Kra canal and Malacca Strait will pass through Andaman sea.

美国很可能在安达曼群岛北部设立封锁线，因为通往卡拉运河和马六甲海峡的道路会经过安达曼群岛。

If China cannot beat them in the Indian Ocean any canal will make little difference.

如果中国不能在印度洋战胜他们，建设任何运河都是没用的。

The way to do it is to turn the blockage into counter blockade. Use the massive resources for building a Kra canal into a navy and air force that dominate the Malacca Strait and Indian Ocean and deny the enemies from using it.

一种是将封锁转换为反封锁，将建设卡拉运河的大量资源投入海军和空军，确保在马六甲海峡和印度洋建立绝对优势，禁止任何对手使用它们。
 
Plan B is to blockade the Persian Gulf with DF 21 and DF 26 in retaliation. US allies will revolt.

另一种是用东风-21 和东风-26封锁波斯湾作为报复，美国的盟友将会叛乱。

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Beehoody  Guest R26; 19 hours ago
The two things are not equivalent diverting major rivers is an expensive exercise sinking cargo ships is not. The rivers originating in occupied Tibet are not the only sources of water there are many mountains with lots of snow.

 这两个事情就不一样，改变河流走向是一个非常昂贵的工程，而击沉船却不是。这些发源于被占领的西藏的河流不是唯一的水源，那里还有很多积雪覆盖的高山。

So don't talk out of your hat.

 所以不要瞎说。

As to the Thai canal the Chinese have to first demonstrate that they can keep American carrier groups from entering the gulf of Thailand. the canal if built without demonstrating this would be a pretty expensive strategic move at a time when China is facing reduced orders from Wall Street.

至于泰国运河，中国必须标明美国航母群是可以进入泰国海湾的。如果中国没有表明这些，这对中国来说将是一个非常昂贵的工程，因为中国将会面临华尔街越来越少的订单。I really dont understand what the commentator is thinking about.
 
Testerty R26; 9 hours ago
The Kra Canal will give China two new naval bases - one going into the Indian Ocean and the other to South China Sea. Joining them with the Chinese islands in South China Sea it became obvious the chinese have pushed the American back Philippine and Australia as it should be.

卡拉运河将会给中国两个新的海军基地，一个可以通向印度洋，另一个可以通向南中国海。一旦这些和中国在南海建设的岛屿链接起来，那么就证明中国已经将美国势力赶到菲律宾和澳大利亚。（应该是驱赶出整个东南亚地区）
 
TNMalt R26; 12 hours ago
Besides the unstable south the Thai government may not be willing to agree to the same things Panama did for the US. US military shut down it's bases there in the mid '70s when the Thai government request us to leave.

还有就是动荡的泰国政府不会像巴拿马政府那样准许美国建设运河。在70年代泰国政府要求美国离开时，美国关闭在泰国的军事基地。