中国人视角下的特朗普 [美国媒体]

A Chinese View of Trump

中国人视角下的特朗普



来自英国《金融时报》的 MarginalRevolution：

我刚刚在北京花了一周时间与官员和知识分子交谈，他们中的许多人对特朗普作为战略家和战术家的技巧感到敬畏…………他担心战略竞争已成为新常态，并表示“贸易战只是冰山一角”。

……

在中国人看来，特朗普的回应是一种“创造性破坏”。他正在系统性地摧毁现有的机构——从世界贸易组织(wto)、北美自由贸易协定(nafta)到北约(Nato)到伊朗核协议(Iran nucleardeal)——为更有利于华盛顿的条款，对世界秩序进行重谈的第一步。

中国精英认为，一旦秩序被摧毁，特朗普将进入第二阶段:重新谈判美国与其他大国的关系。

因为美国仍是世界上最强大的国家，它将能够以实力与其他国家进行谈判，前提是它每次只与这些国家进行谈判，而不是通过多边机构，正式这些机构以牺牲强国利益的方式赋予弱国以权力。

与我交谈的人表示，特朗普是40多年来首位同时从三个方面抨击中国的美国总统:贸易、军事和意识形态。

他们把他描述成一个战术大师，一次只关注一个问题，并尽可能多地做出让步。但他们也把他看作一个战略家，愿意在没有任何让步的情况下，在每个地区宣布休战，然后重新开启新的战线。

Well, no one ever said the Chinese were stupid. I think thisanalysis has much merit.

我得说，谁说中国人蠢了？我觉得这分析很有价值。

The Chinese have a much higher opinion of Trump than the Reinerclan does.

中国人对特朗普的评价要比赖纳集团（Reiner clan）高得多。



Hur hur, Drumpf is a stupid orange Cheetostupid Russian puppet

嘿嘿，川普就是个带有愚蠢橙色毛发的俄国傀儡而已。

As someonewho lives outside the US, I have a hard time imagining how the world ordercould be made even more favorable to the Washington than it already is. Whenyou live abroad, you realize what a behemoth the US is relative to the rest ofthe world. Europe is a cultural colony of the US, the Chinese aredependent on our dollars and market to keep their economy alive, and evenRussia is still essentially at the mercy of the ability of the US-Saudialliance to manage oil prices. All the tech giants and most of the innovationsof the last few decades are American. NATO is actually a fairly cheap way forthe US military to force European countries provide political cover forwhatever the US wants to do. We would not have had European support for bombingSerbia or invading Afghanistan in the unilateral world Trump seems committed tocreating
Ifthe Chinese are right, it is pretty clear why the “Deep State” hatesTrump. For decades we have been running the world for the benefit of USbusinesses and government elites. Trump is going to wreck all that, and it isnot clear at all who will benefit. Certainly not the Republican donors who fundthe party.

作为一个生活在美国以外的人，我很难想象世界秩序如何能比现在更有利于华盛顿。当你生活在国外时，你会意识到相对于世界其他地区，美国是一个庞然大物。
欧洲是美国的文化殖民地，中国人依赖我们的美元和市场来维持经济生存，就连俄罗斯也基本上受制于美国沙特联盟主导油价的能力。过去几十年里所有的科技巨头和大多数创新都是美国人的。

北约实际上是美国军方迫使欧洲国家为美国想做的任何事情提供政治掩护的一种相当廉价的方式。在特朗普似乎致力于创造单边世界的过程中，我们将不会再得到欧洲对轰炸塞尔维亚或入侵阿富汗的支持。

如果中国人是对的，那么某些州恨特朗普的原因就很明显了。
几十年来，我们一直在为美国企业和政府精英的利益而管理世界。特朗普会毁掉这一切，而且谁将从中受益完全不清楚。当然肯定不是共和党的捐款人。

China is the largest foreign holder of US debt —only Japan comes close — it is no surprise that the US runs very large tradedeficits with both countries —both could easily and effectively push back by selling some of their holdings;it is naive to think there are not negotiations going on behind the scenes tospecifically avoid that: the US is very vulnerable here — similar to the ‘petrodollar’ arrangement,there has no doubt been an agreement that the US would tolerate large tradedeficits as long as these countries continued to finance Washington by buyingTreasury debt — this benefited the Establishment while simultaneouslydestroying the livelihoods of ordinary Americans.
Addressingtrade imbalances is only half of the issue.

中国是美国国债的最大外国持有者，只有日本紧随其后。毫不奇怪的是，美国与这两个国家都存在巨额贸易逆差，两国都可以通过出售部分美国国债轻松而有效地对美国加以遏制。
认为幕后没有谈判以专门避免以下情况的想法是天真的：

美国当前是脆弱的，类似于“石油美元”安排，毫无疑问，美国达成了一项协议，只要这些国家继续通过购买美国国债为华盛顿提供资金，美国就会容忍巨额贸易逆差。他在摧毁普通美国人生计的同时，也使美国政府受益。
（所以）解决贸易失衡问题只是问题的一半。



I’m not afan of Trump the man but I am a fan of him as the politician who kept Hillaryout of office.
Is thereanything – anything – that would currently be better under a Madame Clintonadministration?

我不是特朗普本人的粉丝，但作为让希拉里下台的政客，我是他的粉丝。在克林顿夫人执政期间，还有什么事情比现在更好吗?

Militarily,he can’t really attack China or risk triggering nuclear war. They can’t attackhim, only incrementally take over some islands. My guess is that even if theislands are impenetrable and can retaliate to sink carriers, China can still beblockaded easily enough with the US fleet.
But ontrade, he can practically destroy their economy in a bloodless fashion. Theyhave a pair of twos, he has a full house and a stack of chips. He has told themto only say the word, and he will go all in and tax tf out of everything theyexport to the US. You retaliate, I’ll retaliate until you’re bleeding.
On ideology,the Chinese government would have to be all over the currentFrankfurt School PC idea where only white people are racist, and we mustconstantly self-flagellate and admit other people into our countries. That istaking some time to dismantle, but Trump is making progress.
One of thebiggest things he does is call the media “Fake News” all the time. It’snewsworthy, unusual, and so the media feel compelled to have themselves humiliatedbefore him every time he does it. It’s both gratifying and effective tactics.Since the media power is something of a bedrock for the anti-white ideology,Trump is undermining the foundations.
At the endof the day, China would do best supplicating to Trump on trade, saying “NiceeTrumpee, biggee penis!” while keeping up the slow boil conquest by immigration.However, that’s less satisfying to the ego than building military bases on sandbars.



（不正常的美国贸易：2017年，与美国贸易顺差最大的国家）



（美国，侏儒俄国及中国的军费开支——2013年）

在军事上，他不能真的攻击中国或冒着引发核战争的风险。他们不能攻击他，只能逐步占领一些岛屿。我的猜测是，即使这些岛屿是无法通过，可以报复并击沉航母，中国仍然很容易被美国舰队封锁。
但在贸易方面，他几乎可以以一种不流血的方式摧毁他们的经济。特朗普手段很多。你中国要是报复，我就报复，直到你流血为止。
简而言之，中国会尽其所能地在贸易问题上恳求特朗普的。

（注：留言者的遣词用语包含了大量未知的语言/文化背景，不是处于这种背景下的人难以理解，这里有删节，以帮助理解。）

Trump isjust using the negotiating tactics that he used in business. “I know I have acontract with you that I signed in the past but I am tearing it up becausecircumstances have changed. It’s not enforceable anyway as a practical matter –my lawyers will raise defenses and keep you in court forever if you try toenforce it. Here is the deal that I am offering you today instead, which ismuch more favorable for me – take it or leave it.”

特朗普只是在使用他在商业中使用的谈判策略。
“我知道我以前和你签过一份合同，但现在我要撕毁它，因为情况已经改变了。无论如何，作为一个实际问题，它是无法强制执行的——如果你试图强制执行它，我的律师会提起诉讼，并永远把你留在法庭上。这是我今天给你的交易，这对我更有利——要么接受，要么放弃。”