如果川普强迫所有美国公司回归美国，美国能够重新繁荣吗？ [美国媒体]

If Trump forces all US companies come back to the US, will the US survive?

如果川普强迫所有美国公司回归美国，美国能够重新繁荣吗？



1. John Miele, Sales at Cassis, France
Trade is not a zero sum game.
Repeat that again…
Trade is NOT a zero sum game
Trade would not exist if both partiesdid not benefit. For all of the political xenophobia going on in the USA at themoment, one segment of the economy is conveniently overlooked: The USA exportsa hell of a lot to the rest of the world. I suppose that the jobs lost to atrade war are not worth as much as the jobs lost to free trade. Companiesdo not locate to China solely to take advantage of cheaper labor and absence ofenvironmental regulations. Companies also locate in China in order to haveaccess to the huge Chinese market. In fact, China is no longer the cheapestplayer in the labor game. That honor is now shifting to other countries, suchas Bangladesh.

贸易并不是零和博弈。我再次重复一下,贸易并不是零和博弈……如果双方都没有好处的话，那么贸易根本就不可能存在。从目前来看，在政治上美国存在一些仇外情绪。但是从经济上来看，美国与其他地区的联系还是非常紧密的，美国向世界其他地区出口了大量的商品。我认为相比较于在自由贸易当中所失去的工作岗位，因为贸易战而失去一些岗位，这样是完全不值得的。很多企业会选择在中国进行生产，这并不完全是因为中国有廉价的劳动力，或者说中国缺乏环境保护方面的法律。事实上，中国本身就是一个非常巨大的市场，很多企业都会在中国设立办事处。中国已经不再是廉价劳动力的一个提供方。廉价劳动力市场现在正在转向全球的其他地区，比如孟加拉国。



2. Michael Kingsbury, former Art Director
A better question is, What happens ifChina stops loaning the United States the money to run our economy?Trump seemsto not understand that it's the Chinese who are going to bankroll his big taxcut and the almost one trillion dollar debt increase that it will cause. Doingthings that hurt the Chinese economy aren't in our best interest, we need theChinese as much as they need us.And how many Americans are really willing topay two or three times as much for many things than they do now? And onan ironic note, if the US forced manufacturers to move their production back tothe US one of the hardest hit would be Donald Trump, whose products are allmade in Asia!

这是一个非常好的问题。如果中国停止借钱给美国的话，那么美国将会发生什么事情？川普政府似乎不太明白。川普总统现在正在推行减税计划，而中国的资金的注入帮助美国完成了这个计划。中国为美国提供了资金，因为减税计划，美国将会增加近1万亿美元的负债。如果美国刻意的去伤害中国的利益，那么这个事情本身对美国也会造成很大程度的损害。美国需要中国，中国也需要美国。有几个美国人愿意多花两三倍的价钱去买相同质量的东西呢？最为讽刺的是，如果美国强迫所有的制造商返回美国，那么被打击最严重的将会是川普总统，因为川普总统的很多产品都是在亚洲制造的。

2.1 Liam Crowleigh
Is it possible that Trump’s stringsare being pulled by Putin in this one?

川普总统是否已经被俄罗斯的普京总统控制了？



If the US recognizes China’sbrilliance for at least the next 2 decades, then the US stands to only gainfrom this partnership. The problem is USA’s politics is divided, whereas Chinais centralized leadership so US will always have incongruence in their talkswith China due to USs internal political strife. If the US wants to get back to it’sfeet, I guess it is time for the US to adopt a political system which theyhated before, which is centralized leadership and longer election terms,provided the American people get to see a leader which can rule with diplomacyand tact. A new president comes, reverses all the work done by the last one for8 years just to satisfy the vote bank and sends the country into a total stateof confusion.

如果美国人意识到在未来的20年中国将会达到的水平，那么美国人将会因此而受益。麻烦在于美国的政治是分裂的。而中国是集中式的领导。所以在这两种体制之下，美国无法协调统一的对中国的政策。这就使得美国在谈判当中处于不利的地位。如果美国想要获取更多的优势。我认为美国是时候应该要去调整他的政治体系结构了。美国人非常不情愿进行政治改革。赋予总统更长时间的任期，然后进行集中式的领导。这样的话，美国总统将能够更加积极有效的去施展美国的外交技巧。

2.1.3 Steve Bloxham
Of course that is what's happening.Trumpthe deal maker is more Trump the child. Easily duped. Can barely play checkers…much less Chess. He's the kind of kid who even cheats at checkers.There is noway in gods green earth he will weather the next election. We and China canwait this debacle out. Lets not forget Nixon started this when he opened upChina. Then Bill Clinton put things on steroids when he was duped into NAFTA.Nothing to do with China but it got the mindset ready to start shipping a full40% of American manufacturing away. Nice. The entire concept of a postindustrial economy is in error.

当然，这就是现在正在发生的事情。川普做了很多事情，看起来就像孩子一样。川普非常容易被骗，看起来他似乎只适合去玩西洋跳棋。川普几乎不会下跳棋，更别说国际象棋了。川普是属于那种即使玩西洋跳棋都会作弊的孩子。如果上帝保佑的话，川普总统应该不能够续任。我们和中国很快就要看到川普总统完蛋了。不要忘记，是尼克松总统推动与中国进行建交的。后来美国与北美地区的其他国家开展贸易谈判签署了北美自由贸易协定。当时美国被骗了。这一切与中国并没有什么关系。那个时候，美国已经准备好要将它的40%的制造业移出美国。事实上，有关于后工业时代的很多概念都是错误百出。那些概念其实本身并不适合于美国。



3. Bill Lipton, Dem County Chairman -- child in 50's with stay at CampDavid
It would be hard. If all the firmsreturned to the USA, there would be a very serious labor shortage. Compoundingit would be a tremendous energy shortage.But, technologically, China couldsuffer setbacks… it would tak a decade to fully automate manufacturing andprovide artificial intelligence controls… but that would mean excluding Chinesefrom America Universities — to prevent them learning the technology. To get theenergy, America would need to go 90% renewable. The USA would survive far better thanit will under the current situation … one which opposes renewables and denysthe demographic and economic reality of Negative Population Growth and aBaby-boom population that is nearly a third of the adult working populationwill soon be retired or dead. By 2035, unless we have enormous increases inautomation and renewables, America will be bankrupt.

这非常困难。如果所有的美国公司都回流到美国的话，那么美国国内将会出现非常严重的劳动力短缺。此外，由于生产工厂的涌入，这将会导致美国出现巨大的能源缺口。当然，从某种意义上来讲，如果有企业撤出中国的话，对中国也会造成一些影响。目前，全世界的生产自动化以及人工智能正在快速的发展。在十年之内大概能够完成这样的状况，如此一来的话，美国就不需要那么多的劳动力了。相应来说，美国也不再需要那么多的中国的留学生了。这样美国就可以阻止中国学生学习美国的技术。为了解决能源问题，美国必须要推动可再生能源的发展。如此一来，美国在未来的状况将会比现在要从容很多。但是，也有一些学者认为，可再生能源是没有必要的，因为美国的新生儿正在减少，而且人口退休和死亡的人数将会逐渐增加。到2035年的时候，除非美国在自动化和可再生能源方面取得巨大的进展，否则，到那个时候，美国将会破产。

4. T Michael Lutas
Trump would not survive such an order.Trump has given no evidence that he even wants to give such an order.The ColdWar is over. That’s the foundation of what’s going on.China has benefited froma Nixon era arrangement where they agreed not to gang up with the USSR to pileon the US in exchange for preferences in the US market. The US benefitted too.But there were losers in this arrangement and they are at the core of PresidentTrump’s voter base so, understandably, President Trump wants to renegotiate theagreement. Sweetdeals don’t last forever.Where trade and cooperation benefits the US in 2018,President Trump will be in favor. China legitimately has developed deep skills ina number of areas where economic trade should continue and even expand.Thenthere’s the other stuff. The trade which stays afloat on hidden subsidies likeselling below manufacturing cost shipping containers to exporters is not a goodlong term investment.

如果川普真的要求所有的公司都回到美国的话，那么川普自己首先就先玩蛋了。川普总统既没有发出这样的命令，也没有展示出有这样的意愿要如此行事。现在已经不是冷战时期了。在尼克松时代，美国开始与中国建交。在那之后，中国受益匪浅。那个时候，中国用与苏联之间的关系为筹码向美国施压，其目的就是换取美国的市场优惠政策。最终，美国也从这种对中开放当中获益。但是，在这一系列的行为当中也是有输家的。而这些输家就是今天川普总统的基本盘。所以川普总统想要去重新对贸易条件进行调整，这是有一定的群众基础的。不可能有什么协议能够让双方永远都满意。如果川普总统能够为美国带来一些贸易方面的利益的话，那么川普总统本身也会受惠。在贸易当中，中国已经获利颇丰，而且在很多领域，中国的利益正在不断的继续扩张。此外，中国对于出口贸易还有一些隐性的补贴，从长期来看，这并不是什么聪明的做法。



8. Kerry Andrew, Senior Program Manager (2009-present)
The US does not have the capacity tomagically open thousands of invisible factories. Nor, does the Americanpopulation have the money to pay for everything being made in the USA. Theprices would be at least three times what they are now.I recommend you read upon economics.

美国没有办法在国内开设这么多的工厂，而且美国人也买不起在美国生产的那些产品。那些产品的价格将会是在国外生产的三倍左右。有关于这方面的东西，我建议你最好读一读经济学方面的书。

9. Dave Eastridge, studied Web Development
'what if' anything is answered byspeculation and opinion. but not much really about national borders in theworld wide web of humanity these days. usa president does not do work byhimself beyond a mouthpiece for usa government and even that is done withspeech writers and counsel of lawyers and a staff of secretaries. promises andtreaties are rarely kept but are revised at the drop of a hat! manufacturingpollution is worldwide and shared by all nations. many parts can be made in oneor more countries but assembled in another and sold in a third and recycled ina fourth. the small 'made in' tag on products are for tarifs and tax purposes.

如果世界上所有的事情都用猜测或者是个人意见来进行回答的话，那么这些事情本身就没有什么意义了。在网络世界，有关于国界方面的讨论并不多。对于美国来说，美国总统也不过是美国政府的喉舌而已。至于那些演讲撰稿人，律师顾问团和那些秘书人员就更是如此了。承诺和条约是很少会得到遵守的。很多时候还会经常被修改。制造业确实会带来污染，而且这种污染很多时候是全球性的。很多的零组件会在一些国家制造，然后在另外一个国家被组装起来。在第三国被销售，在第四国被回收。事实上，产品上面的标签纸是用来征收关税用的。