蓝营回光返照，绿营濒临崩解 [美国媒体]

THE TWO KAOHSIUNG mayoral debatesthat took place on November 10th and yesterday, on November 19th, raise anumber of questions going forward. In particular, KMT mayoral candidate HanKuo-yu did not perform as well as one would have expected in either debate andso it is to be seen whether the debate will negatively affect his electionchances. On the other hand, it is also highly possible that Han voters willsimply disregard Han’s debate performance. Chen opened by attacking Han for being dismissive of Kaohsiung,emphasizing that he also had policies formulated at attracting tourists andpromoting agricultural goods which were more than just empty slogans. Withoutaccusing Han of specifically being behind false rumors directed against him,Chen also referenced accusations that his in-depth knowledge of statisticsduring the last debate was because he had a hidden earpiece, as a way ofindirectly intimating that Han’s unexpectedly popularity might be because ofChinese election interference. Hanagreed in his opening that he felt it was wrong that some of his followers hadattacked Chen using false rumors, calling, for an open, fair, and inclusiveelection. Han claimed that the DPP’s twenty years of rule over Kaohsiung hadleft the people disappointed and that contemporary Kaohsiung lacked employmentopportunities. What was needed for Kaohsiung, then, was to meet the challengeof economic growth. Inthe subsequent rounds of exchanges that followed, Chen commented that in Han’sworldview, only the KMT could allow Kaohsiung to have economic growth butoutside of asserting this, he had no statistics with which to back this up.Chen also emphasized the fact that he has spent decades living in Kaohsiung,stating that he had spent his youth in Kaohsiung, and that his roots were inKaohsiung. Han’s response was to state that he could look up statistics anytimehe wanted on his phone and reference that he had only been in Kaohsiung for oneyear as a justification for his lack of knowledge. Han attacked Chen with claims that Kaohsiung residents were indebted,stating that tourism was necessary for the city. Chen responded to this bystating that this was true, and he was open to tourists of any nationalityvisiting Kaohsiung, but Han was fixated on Chinese tourists to the exclusion ofall other countries. Chenfollowed up by attacking Han for fantastical notions such as raising thepopulation of Kaohsiung from 2.77 million to 5 million in four years, as thoughsuch a massive influx of residents could be accomplished so quickly.

在11月10日和11月19日。高雄市执政党候选人陈其迈与在野党候选人韩国瑜进行了两场辩论。在野党候选人韩国瑜两场表现均不如预期，此次辩论是否会影响骗选民的选票流向，依然有待观察。但是从另外一方面来看，韩国瑜的支持者可能认为他的表现不会影响此次选举。就第二次辩论来看，在刚开始的时候。陈其迈开始抨击韩国瑜对高雄进行抹黑。陈其迈强调自己也制定了吸引游客，推广农产品的相关政策。陈其迈认为，韩国瑜所提出的政见只是空洞的口号。韩国瑜在第二场辩论的开场白中承认，他的支持者利用虚假谣言攻击了陈其迈，这本身是错误的。他呼吁进行一场公开，公平和包容的选举。韩国瑜先生声称民进党对高雄20年的统治，让高雄人民很失望。现在的高雄缺乏就业机会。高雄需要的是经济成长。在随后的几轮交锋当中。陈其迈评论说，在韩国瑜看来，似乎只有国民党才能够让高雄经济实现成长。但是他认为韩国瑜并没有证据能够来证明这一点。陈其迈还强调，他在高雄生活了几十年，按他的说法，他的青春都是在高雄度过的，他的根在高雄。韩国瑜则表示，相关的数据可以直接在谷歌上面查到，而且他强调他来到高雄只有一年，这就是为何他对于市政不那么熟悉。韩国瑜提到了高雄的负债问题，他以此攻击陈其迈。韩国瑜称，旅游对于高雄是非常重要的。陈其迈也同意这一点，而且陈其迈强调，他对于任何国家的游客都是持开放态度，都欢迎他们来到高雄旅游。但是陈其迈批评韩国瑜只关注中国大陆来的游客，而忽略了其他国家的游客。随后，陈其迈攻击韩国瑜异想天开，比如，他批评韩国瑜提出在四年之内将高雄的人口从277万增加到500万。陈其迈认为这是完全不可能实现的。



And so it may resolve ultimately to aquestion of style versus substance with regards to how we uate who won thedebate and who will win in upcoming elections. Many in Taiwanese society takethe view that all bets are off, particularly as countries such as America, thePhilippines, and elsewhere show a trend of strongmen leaders taking power evenwhen they lack the basic policy knowledge that regular politicians have.Campaign rallies for Chen and for Han have drawn reportedly upwards of 80,000to 100,000, but neither side is visibly larger. The Han campaign continues to be heavily reliant on social media goinginto the last week before election day, producing video ads which aim to tug atthe heartstrings of Kaohsiung residents by telling stories of impoverishedyoung people forced to leave the city because of lack of economicopportunities. On the other hand, it is also possible that cracks are startingto appear in the Han campaign. Namely, the gaffes made by Han in the course ofthe two debates have become in themselves an object of mockery online. Talk that Han could potentially provide a new image toturn around the KMT is growing, as Han previously sought to run for KMT chairin 2016, but was unsuccessful in winning. Even if this ends up taking place,Han’s inability to back up slogans with concrete facts may also come back tohaunt him and the KMT in the long-term, with Han proving an ineffective chair. Very clear weaknesses have emerged from Han Kuo-yu and soit will be seen as to how this affects his mayoral run. A failed mayoral runcould nip further political ambitions from Han. But this remains to be seen.

所以，那么问题就来了。究竟谁赢得了这场辩论呢？谁会在即将到来的选举当中获胜？台湾社会很多人认为，民进党赢得高雄市选举可能是徒劳的。因为从目前的整个国际局势来看，全世界几乎都开始出现右派当道的趋势。这其中就包括美国，菲律宾等国家。这些国家所选出的政治领导人，虽然缺乏基本的政策常识，但是他们最终依然能够当选。据报道，陈其迈和韩国瑜的竞选集会都分别吸引了8万到10万人。双方造势规模相当。在选举日之前的最后一周。韩国瑜依然严重的依赖社交媒体，他制作视频广告。通过讲述北漂的故事来吸引年轻人，来打动高雄市民的心。另一方面，韩国瑜阵营也可能已经出现了一些裂痕。在两次辩论当中，韩国瑜表现均不理想。他可能已经成了网络上的笑柄。有报道认为，韩国瑜的出现为国民党提供了一个扭转形象的新机会。2016年，韩国瑜曾经想要竞选国民党主席，但是最终未能成功。韩国瑜的弱点非常明显。这将会为他的市长竞选之路造成麻烦。如果市长选举失败的话，这可能会遏制他的政治野心。但是，事情究竟会想哪个方向发展，还需要后续继续观察。

2. 问答部分
Out of the Loop: Who is Han Kuo-yu (韩国瑜)? And why is he so popular?
I am out of the loop here (I live inthe US) and I am seeing a lot of posts online about Han Kuo-yu (韩国瑜).I know he is running for Kaohsiung mayor and he has a chance towin. Why is he so popular and controversial right now?Every YouTube video abouthim online has a lot of upvotes and comments. A lot of people are saying theseare trolls and wumao from China. Is this true?

我想问一下，谁是韩国瑜呀？为何他在台湾如此受欢迎？我现在住在美国。我看到很多视频都是关于韩国瑜的。我知道他现在正在竞选高雄市长。而且他有机会获胜。但是我想知道的是——为什么他会这么受欢迎。在YouTube上面，他的每一个视频下面都有大量的支持者。很多人说，他的支持者都是来自于中国的巨魔工厂或者是五毛，这是真的吗？（译者注：台湾绿营媒体认为大陆有网军部队，取名叫做巨魔工厂）



2.1.2 loscrimmage
11 days ago
Even if this guy Han will not win theelection, he at least have quite some supporters. I found it strange thissubreddit overwhelmingly disapprove Han. It says more about this sub's biasthan Han himself.

即使韩国瑜不能赢得这次选举，他也已经培养了大批的支持者。我觉得很奇怪，在reddit的这个版块，似乎有非常多的人不喜欢韩国瑜。我觉得这个板块儿似乎很有偏见。

2.1.2.1 ShrimpCrackers
9 days ago
edited 9 days ago
Remember that LINE video where asupporter was so excited and shows it by showing a chart of followers on LINE?Han had increased by 33% in a single day.Look, I know that buying views iscommon now, but this is ridiculously blatant. We're supposed to believe nowthat Han is Taiwan history's most popular candidate, especially on socialmedia, surpassing even Ko P. We're also supposed to believe that given thenumbers, just about every young person in Taiwan supports Han.That's hilarious.

还记得那个LINE的在线视频吗？那些支持者非常兴奋，这些视频可以显示那些支持者的热度。韩国瑜的粉丝数量在一天之间就增长了33%。我知道现在有很多购买流量的情况。但是，如果谁能做到这样的话，那实在是太明目张胆了。我们现在基本可以确定韩国瑜是台湾历史上最受欢迎的候选人。在社交媒体上，尤其如此。他受欢迎程度已经超越了台北市长柯文哲。我们也可以合理的评估，鉴于这个数字，几乎台湾地区的所有年轻人都支持韩国瑜。这件事情真是有点不可思议。

2.2 hawawawawawa
10 days ago
edited 10 days ago
Seems like people in here did notmention his opponent’s dad was involved in several political scandals, andserved some jail time because of them.

在这个板块里面，似乎很多人不知道陈其迈的父亲，他的父亲已经卷入政治丑闻当中，最后被判入狱。



2.3.2 luther84695
11 days ago
To know how corrupt the Kaohsiungadministration is, watch this.

你们想知道高雄市政府究竟有多么的腐败吗？你们看一下下面的链接你就知道了。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn0MifLVLQk

2.3.2.1 Sir_Watto
11 days ago
Careful, they might call this fakenews and lock you up. Facts matter very little to these people

小心一点儿，民进党可能会说你说的是假新闻。然后他们会把你关起来。对于民进党来说，事情的真相根本就无关紧要。

2.3.3 ShrimpCrackers
11 days ago
Let's not forget 6 KMT officials inthat many months were found guilty of corruption by a bipartisan courts. Ithink to pretend it's actually the DPP shows extreme partisanship.Han isn'tcharismatic. He wants to bring back parts of martial law, and says sexist shit.The pen blue media is propping him up with cuts of past KMT rallies to make himseem super popular. The polls regarding him have been so partisan that it'sembarrassing. This is the 90s level of bullshit polls.

我们不要忘记，有六名国民党员，也是因为腐败，最后被定罪。韩国瑜并没有什么超凡的能力。韩国瑜想要去恢复戒严法。而且韩国瑜是一个性别歧视者。蓝营媒体用过去的一些集会的视频进行剪接来证明韩国瑜很受欢迎。有关于韩国瑜本身的民意调查也有很大的局限性。我觉得那些民调有太浓重的党派色彩。其真实性令人感觉到尴尬。那些民调和上世纪90年代一样，是一些很扯淡的民调。



2.4 zxvn
11 days ago
The fact is that economy is reallybad in Kaohsiung for the past 15 years or so, I seen many new infrastructuresand train stations around the center city , but it doesn’t help that it isalmost impossible to land a decent paying job in Kaohsiung anymore. What isworse is the housing prize.. 20 years ago it was possible to buy a 透天 for 3-5 million NTD, but today you can’tget one for at least 15 million. I don’t know howanyone in Kaohsiung can afford a house with 22k monthly wage. the gas leakthing and how 陈菊handles it afterward,is what made melose my faith in her. tons of debts and problem in Kaohsiung but she can stilladvance in her political career becoming 秘书长？ one ofthe most powerful positions in Taiwan politics.

事实上，在过去的15年里面，高雄市的经济真的非常糟糕。在高雄市中心，我看到很多新的基础设施。我看到了新的火车站。但是，在高雄是找到一份高薪的工作，这几乎是不可能的。更为糟糕的是高雄市的住房价格……在20年前, 300万到500万新台币就可以买到住房。但是今天这个价格已经有了很大幅度的增长，你最少要花1500万新台币。我实在难以想象在高雄市究竟有多少人能够负担得起这样的住房价格。高雄市还发生过燃气泄露的事情。当时高雄市长陈菊处理的非常糟糕。高雄市几乎已经让我绝望了。高雄市本身有着大量的债务。但是陈菊居然能够提前卸任，然后到台北市去当蔡政府的秘书长。

2.5 Jamin , I have an interest in Taiwanese politics
Answered Oct 29
Han Kuo-yu reminds me of BetoO’Rourke. Like Beto, Han is a charismatic member of the opposition party who istrying to win a position of power in a region that has been dominated by theother party for decades. And like Beto, Han has fired up his base to such anextent that a victory over the other party’s candidate is no longer animpossibility. Butlike Beto, Han does not have the “situation on the ground” on his side. It’shard to imagine a DPP stronghold like Kaohsiung “falling” to the KMT just asit’s hard to fathom a Republican stronghold like Texas “falling” to Democrats.Even if Han does win, that one victory alone does not suffice to represent a“realignment” in local politics. He will most likely serve one term until theDPP finds a more likable candidate, at which point the equilibrium is restored. Would I vote for Han if I were a resident of Kaohsiung?Probably yes, but as a left-leaning American citizen I’m not reallyenthusiastic about most Democrats right now — it seems pretty obvious that manyof them are relying on their personality and identity more than anything elseto win office. Similarly, there’s nothing about the policy substance of HanKuo-yu that inspires me. Then again, that statement could be applied to theentire KMT right now.My hope is that the KMT — like the Democrats here — willnot only be able to conquer the world on horseback, but dismount and govern.

韩国瑜让我想起了奥罗克。和贝托一样，韩国瑜是反对党的成员。他试图想要去动摇高雄市长期由民进党把持的格局。韩国瑜的阵营正在不断的扩大，以至于我们已经可以看到他击败执政党的希望了。但是和贝托一样，韩国瑜本身也没有在地的优势。高雄市民长期支持民进党，居然会倒戈投票给国民党。这就好像你很难会想像德克萨斯这样的老牌共和党根据地居然会投票给民主党一样。即使韩国瑜真的赢了，仅仅靠这样的一场胜利，还不足以能够对高雄进行一次清洗。韩国瑜可能只会任一届，当民进党找到合适的候选人以后，在下一次选举当中，韩国瑜可能就会被击败，然后高雄市又恢复原样。如果我是高雄市民，我会投票给韩国瑜吗？但是，我是一个美国人，而且我有左倾的倾向。我现在对大多数民主党人并不热心。很多民主党候选人在赢得选举的时候很依赖于他们的个性和身份。在我看来，韩国瑜的一些政策并没有给我一些大的启发。这个结论同样可以用在国民党身上。我希望国民党将来能够有更大的进步。变成一个能文能武的执政党。

2.6 Anonymous
Answered Aug 15
As of Aug. 2018, the latest pollsindicate that Han is closing in on Chen, with the latter’s lead getting to bejust marginal.Han is campaigning on the stagnating economic state that has beenhindering the city for decades under DPP leadership and how to bring change,and the support appears to be encouraging. This is probably the closest the KMThas ever gotten to re-taking Kaohsiung in a generation.That said, it will require a spectacular effort to upsetDPP in this stronghold of theirs, and foul play by the DPP is expected, as ithas happened many times before in Kaohsiung (beware of the night before theactual vote!)

截止到2018年8月，根据最新的民意测验显示，韩国瑜已经开始接近陈其卖了。陈其迈的领先优势正在变得越来越弱。高雄市长期由民进党把持，而高雄市本身各方面的数据一直在衰退。从这一次的选举来看这可能是国民党最近几十年来第一次真正接近夺取高雄。可以毫不夸张的说，想要在民进党的大本营击败民进党，这本身要付出巨大的努力。民进党会竭尽全力的进行抹黑，这几乎是完全可以预料得到的。高雄市之前发生过很多类似这样的事情，都是民进党干的，在投票前一夜，一定要特别小心。

2.7 Jason Lee, B.S. Conputer Science, University of California, Davis(2000)
Answered Oct 23
Either way, the DPP will make surethey win this race. I believe they actually lost in 2004, but rigged theelection that time.2018 should be no different. They won’t let the KMT win intheir capital city no matter what.

无论如何，民进党都会不择手段赢得这场大选。在2004年的时候，他们确实输了。但是那一次，民进党操纵了选举。在2018年的时候，我相信结果不会有什么不同。高雄是民进党的首都，民进党不会让国民党在他的首都获得胜利的。