中国和俄罗斯正在起草一项协议，以促进本国货币在双边和国际贸易中的使用，并突显出两国打算减少对美元的依赖 [美国媒体]

China and Russia are drafting a pact toboost the use of their national currencies in bilateral and internationaltrade, underscoring their intent to cut their reliance on the US dollar

中国和俄罗斯正在起草一项协议，以促进本国货币在双边和国际贸易中的使用，并突显出两国打算减少对美元的依赖



(China and Russia are drafting a pact to cuttheir reliance on the US dollar amid Washington threats to impose more economicsanctions on one or both of the two countries. )

（中国和俄罗斯正在起草一项协议，以减少对美元的依赖。目前，美国威胁要对两国中的一个或全部实施更多经济制裁。）

The development of a new internationalfinancial payments system aims to address rising concerns over additional USsanctions and trade tariffs.

这一新的国际金融支付体系的建立，旨在解决人们对美国进一步制裁和征收贸易关税日益加剧的担忧。

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev,during his visit to China earlier this month, said the two nations werediscussing the launch of a new cross-border system for direct payment of tradeinvoices in the yuan and the rouble.

俄罗斯总理梅德韦杰夫在本月早些时候访问中国期间表示，两国正在讨论启动一个新的跨境支付体系，以人民币和卢布直接支付贸易发票。

He also said discussions were underway toallow the use of China's UnionPay credit card in Russia and Russia's Mir cardin China.

他还说，有关允许在俄罗斯使用中国银联信用卡和在中国使用俄罗斯MIR借记卡的讨论正在进行中。

The impetus for creating a new financialinfrastructure is the continued deterioration in both countries' relations withthe United States and the threat that Washington will impose more economicsanctions on one or both of them.

创建一个新的金融基础设施的动力源自两国与美国关系的持续恶化，以及华盛顿将对其中一个或全部国家实施更多经济制裁的威胁。

"The Chinese should protect theirsystem while Russia should protect its own system," Medvedev said earlierthis month, ahead of the 22nd regular meeting of Russian and Chinese heads ofgovernment.

梅德韦杰夫本月早些时候在中俄两国政府首脑第22次定期会晤前表示：“中国应该保护他们的体系，而俄罗斯也应该保护自己的体系。”

Bilateral trade set to double

双边贸易将翻倍

"In this respect, this kind ofco-operation is very useful because in this situation no one will be able toblock the development of financial traffic," he said, predicting thatChina-Russia bilateral trade would reach US$200 billion in 2020, double theUS$100 billion level in 2014.

他表示：“在这方面，这种合作非常有用，因为在这种情况下，没有人能够阻止金融交流的发展。”他预计，中俄双边贸易额将在2020年达到2000亿美元，是2014年1000亿美元的两倍。

The US, European Union and other westerncountries imposed sanctions on Russia officials and businessmen after itsforceful annexation of Crimea in 2014.

2014年俄罗斯强行吞并克里米亚后，美国、欧盟等西方国家对俄罗斯官员和商人实施了制裁。

Many Russian and Chinese firms have alsobeen fined or put on a blacklist by US authorities for violating US sanctionslaw.

许多俄罗斯和中国公司也因违反美国制裁法而被美国当局罚款或列入黑名单。

For instance, Chinese telecommunicationsequipment maker ZTE Corp was fined US$1.4 billion fine in June for shippinggoods to Iran and North Korea in violation of those sanctions.

例如，今年6月，中国电信设备制造商中兴因违反制裁规定，向伊朗和朝鲜出口产品而被罚款了14亿美元。

Medvedev made clear the payment systeminitiative was an attempt move away from the current dollar-dominated financialsystem.

梅德韦杰夫明确表示，支付系统的倡议是试图摆脱目前美元主导的金融系统。



(Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev saidsome of US President Donald Trump's sanctions are good or useful "becausethey forced us to do what we should have done 10 years ago".)
（俄罗斯总理德米特里•梅德韦杰夫表示，美国总统唐纳德•特朗普的一些制裁是好的或有用的，“因为它们迫使我们做了10年前就应该做的事情”。）

"No one currency should dominate themarket, because this makes all of us dependent on the economic situation in thecountry that issues this reserve currency, even when we are talking about astrong economy such as the United States," Medvedev said.

梅德韦杰夫说：“任何一种货币都不应该主导市场，因为这使我们所有人都依赖发行这种储备货币的国家的经济形势，即使我们谈论的是美国这样一个强大的经济体。”

'Some of these [US] sanctions are good'

‘（美国的）一些制裁措施是好的’

"I want to say something that mayraise a few eyebrows, but I think some of these [US] sanctions are good oruseful because they forced us to do what we should have done 10 yearsago," he said.

他说：“我想说一些可能会让一些人感到惊讶的东西，但我认为其中一些（美国的）制裁是好的或有用的，因为它们迫使我们做了我们10年前应该做的事情。”

"But it is unclear to me why we havebeen trading oil and gas for dollars and euros all of these years withouttrying to involve the rouble.

“但我不明白为什么这些年来我们一直都在用美元和欧元交易石油和天然气，却没有试图让卢布参与进来。”

"Trading for roubles is our absolutepriority, which, by the way, should eventually turn the rouble from aconvertible currency into a reserve currency. "

“用卢布交易是我们的绝对优先事项，顺便说一句，这应该最终将卢布从一种可兑换货币转变为一种储备货币。”

Since some 42 per cent of transactions onthe Swift international payments system are in US dollars, exclusion from thecurrent system is a powerful weapon Washington could use to punish sanctionsviolators.

由于“SWIFT”国际支付系统中约42%的交易是美元交易，因此，将其排除在当前系统之外，是美国政府可以用来惩罚违反制裁规定的国家的有力武器。

The development of a new cross-borderpayments system could allow China and Russia to avoid using Swift for manytransactions, potentially allowing them to circumvent any US sanctions.

一种新的跨境支付系统的开发，可能会让中国和俄罗斯避免在许多交易中使用“SWIFT”，从而有可能规避美国的某些制裁。

For example, China, Russia, and manyEuropean countries might be able to use a new payments system to achieve theirstated goal of finding a way around the US-imposed limitations on Iranian oilexports and preserving the international agreement to halt Iranian nuclearweapons development.

例如，中国、俄罗斯和许多欧洲国家可能能够使用一种新的支付系统，以实现它们所宣称的目标，即找到绕过美国对伊朗石油出口施加限制的方法，并维护旨在阻止伊朗核武器发展的（伊核）国际协议。

Circumventing Swift trouble

绕过“SWIFT”的麻烦

"If the trade war escalates, usingSwift to make financial payments becomes a potential channel to sanction acountry," Nathan Chow, economist at DBS Bank said.

星展银行经济学家南森•周表示：“如果贸易战升级，利用‘SWIFT’支付变成了制裁一个国家的潜在渠道。”

"So starting a new payments systemwill help avoid such a situation, on top of other uses such as yuaninternationalisation and Russia-China trade development.

“因此，除了人民币国际化和中俄贸易发展等其他用途外，启动新的支付系统将有助于避免这种情况。”

"China's share of Russia'sinternational trade increased to 15 per cent last year from 11 per cent in2013, largely reflecting increased Chinese purchases of Russian oil and gas,according to Dmitry Dolgin, Russia chief economist at ING Bank.

荷兰商业银行俄罗斯首席经济学家德米特里•杜尔金表示：“中国在俄罗斯国际贸易中所占份额从2013年的11%升至去年的15%，这在很大程度上反映出中国对俄罗斯石油和天然气的购买增加。”

Russian imports from China replaced some ofthe EU imports that were cut off by Western sanctions, which increased China'sshare of total Russian imports to 22 per cent from 17 per cent five years ago.

俄罗斯从中国的进口，取代了一些被西方制裁切断的欧盟进口。西方制裁将中国在俄罗斯进口总额中所占比例从5年前的17%提高至22%。

However, ING's Dolgin said several hurdleswould need to be overcome before the full benefits of a new payments systemcould be realised.

然而，荷兰商业银行的杜尔金表示，在获得新支付系统的全部好处之前，仍需要克服几个障碍。

China's heavy integration into globalmanufacturing supply chains means it has limited power to set prices in its owncurrency.

中国大力融入全球制造业供应链，意味着它在以人民币定价方面的能力有限。

And US dollar-denominated payments havelong been used by oil exporters for their convenience as well as for theirfaith in the greenback as a safe store of value, Dolgin said.

杜尔金表示，石油出口国长期以来一直使用美元支付，不仅是为了方便，也是因为相信美元是一种安全的价值储存手段。



[–]ecsilver
I think that the manipulation and lack oftransparency will really put a damper on this as few will see it as a safestore of value.

我认为，操纵和缺乏透明度将真正阻碍这一点，因为很少有人会把它视为一种安全的价值储存手段。

[–]OCedHrt
Poorer countries will use it for the freeinvestment. But that might just make the world a more dangerous place.

贫穷国家将把它用于自由投资。但这可能只会让世界变得更加危险。

[–]Iain365
More dangerous than the US currently makesit?

比美国现在的作为更危险吗？

[–]Hashslingingslashar
Probably, yes. Most US foreign investmentis done by private companies and not as much directed by the federalgovernment. Chinese investment on the other hand is much more tied to itsgovernment and for diplomatic purposes. China often uses this as leverage overother countries, which is a far more precarious situation for developingcountries than dealing with a US bank, which just wants to get paid. It’s likethe difference in owing money to a bank and owing money to the mafia.

也许，是的。美国的大部分外国投资是由私营企业完成的，而不是由联邦政府主导。另一方面，中国的投资与中国政府和外交目的的联系要紧密得多。中国经常利用这一点对其他国家施加影响，这对发展中国家来说，比与只想赚钱的美国银行打交道危险得多。这就好比欠银行钱和欠黑手党钱的区别。

[–]KonniBOI
Very neatly summarized.

非常巧妙地总结。

[–]TPSreportsPro
Most definitely. Debt and lack of fundscauses two things. Divorce and war.

很清楚。债务和缺乏资金导致了两件事。离婚和战争。

[–]Diningbat
I don't get where people get this from. Thecurrencies of Russia and China aren't any more manipulated than the USD is,every country's central banks try to manage their currencies in theirinterests. Nothing about anything Russia or China do with their currencies isany more opaque or confusing or unpredictable than what happens with the USD.
Where the idea of "manipulation"comes from is just from our annoyance that foreigners have the audacity to wantto accumulate USD reserves given that the USD is the global reserve currency.They buy lots of USD with their currency, this effectively weakens theircurrency compared to the USD. But this isn't somehow very opaque orunpredictable. It's obvious why they do what they do.
Fortunately, once they don't need toaccumulate as many USD because they're trading using other currencies, theywon't have to "manipulate" their currencies in this way.
Edit: The amount this post has gone up anddown is pretty amusing. Seems like we've got a pretty polarized subredditbetween people who hate China, and people who actually have brains. I have hugeproblems with lots of things the Chinese government does too... believe it ornot, that doesn't preclude me from trying to have a rational understanding ofhow the international monetary system functions.

我不知道人们从哪里得到这些观点的。俄罗斯和中国的货币并不比美元受到更多的操纵，每个国家的中央银行都试图为自己的利益而管理货币。俄罗斯和中国对他们的货币所做的任何事情，没有什么比美元更不透明、更令人困惑或更不可预测的了。
“操纵”的概念来自于我们的烦恼：鉴于美元是全球储备货币，外国人胆大妄为地累积美元储备。他们用自己的货币大量购买美元，这实际上削弱了他们的货币相对于美元的汇率。但这并非十分不透明或不可预测。他们这样做的原因很明显。
幸运的是，一旦他们因为使用其他货币进行交易而不需要积累那么多美元，他们就不必以这种方式“操纵”自己的货币。
PS：这篇文章的起起落落相当有趣。看样子我们在reddit上看到了一个两极分化的版块，一边是讨厌中国的人，另一边是真正有头脑的人。我对中国政府做的许多事情也有很大的问题……信不信由你，这并不妨碍我对国际货币体系如何运作有一个理性的理解。

[–]SheepStyle_1999
Just because a country says there are fiatdoesn’t mean it actually is. China has vast America dollar currency reservesthat it often lets out to prop up the yuan. Not to mention the assets eachcountry seizes for “corruption.” Neither China nor Russia can replace US dollaruntil they respect the rule of law, property rights, and feee floatingcurrency. None of this will happen any time soon.

一个国家说有法定货币并不意味着它就是法定的。中国拥有庞大的美元外汇储备，经常动用这些储备来支撑人民币。更不用说各国因“腐败”而攫取的资产了。“只有尊重法治、尊重财产权、尊重自由浮动汇率制，中国和俄罗斯才能取代美元。”这些在短期内都不会发生。

[–]SheepStyle_1999
It’s not xenophobic, it’s economics. Thereis no doubt that China and Russia both prop their currency. I think anyinvestor will tell you, there is no place safer to invest that America. Americat-bills are the safest assets in the world.

这不是排外，而是经济。毫无疑问，中国和俄罗斯都支持本国货币。我想任何投资者都会告诉你，没有比美国更安全的投资地方了。美国国债是世界上最安全的资产。

[–]Diningbat
Dude, most investors will tell you thatChina and Russia make their currencies "artificially weak" to helpexports/accumulate USD. This is the opposite of "propping up" theircurrencies... their currencies would be stronger without the active managementtheir authorities take.
So when I see this kind of totallyincoherent reasoning, which I do see all the time, I have to conclude thatwanting to criticize their monetary policy is only motivated by xenophobia.
Please offer any coherent argument howtheir monetary policy is somehow not in their own best interests, and I'll behappy to discuss that with you.

老兄，大多数投资者会告诉你，中国和俄罗斯人为压低本币汇率，以帮助出口/累积美元。这与“支撑”他们的货币正好相反……如果没有当局的积极管理，这些国家的货币将会走强。
所以当我看到这种完全不连贯的推理时，我不得不得出结论，想要批评他们的货币政策，只是出于仇外心理。
请提供任何连贯的论点，说明他们的货币政策在某种程度上不符合他们的最佳利益，我会很高兴与你们讨论这一点。

[–]SheepStyle_1999
No, YOU are wrong. As this articles canattest, China does indeed prop up its currency using its vast currencyreserves. Regardless, any propping or duing is still currency manipulation.

不，你错了。正如本文所证明的，中国确实利用其庞大的外汇储备支撑了人民币。不管怎么讲，任何支撑或贬值仍是汇率操纵。

[–]Frothyogreloins
Oh boy here it comes the all knowing alltolerant explosion of virtue. They manipulate their own currency to thedetriment of their own people to make their exports more commercially viable.

哦，小屁孩，这是美德的爆发。他们操纵本国货币，损害本国人民的利益，以使其出口在商业上更具可行性。

[–]Diningbat
They manipulate their own currency to thedetriment of their own people to make their exports more commercially viable.
They buy USD with renminbi in order toaccumulate USD because they need large stocks of USD in order to grow theireconomy/facilitate international trade.
If they failed to accumulate the needed USDas reserves, that is what would be to the detriment of their own people.
Yes, in the short term if the renminbi werestronger Chinese consumers could consume more. But believe it or not, economicsis largely about long term goals and growth.

“他们操纵本国货币，损害本国人民的利益，以使其出口在商业上更具可行性。”
他们用人民币购买美元是为了积累美元，因为他们需要大量的美元储备来发展经济/促进国际贸易。
如果他们未能积累所需的美元储备，那将对他们自己的人民造成伤害。
是的，从短期来看，如果人民币走强，中国消费者可能会消费更多。但信不信由你，经济学主要是关于长期目标和增长的。

[–]JLCitadel
Everyone here seems to be more interested inarguing than reaching an understanding. My knowledge of the situation is thatChina arbitrarily and willfully controls the price of their currency ratherthan letting it be self regulated. They manipulate its value and no one knowsits actual relative worth.

这里的每个人似乎都对争论更感兴趣，而不是达成共识。我所了解的情况是，中国任意、任性地控制着人民币的价格，而不是让人民币自我调节。他们操纵它的价值，没有人知道它的实际相对价值。

[–]Diningbat
Every country manages its money supply"artificially" in the way they think they think is in their economicinterest. There is nothing special about China. The US Fed also arbitrarily andwillfully manages our money supply in the way we think is in our economicinterest.
"Arbitrary setting of the moneysupply" is the entire motivation for having switched to Fiat currencies.Every country that uses fiat currency does so because they like being able toarbitrarily set their money supply.
I have no idea where for instance you gotany notion that the USD is "self regulated". It's regulated by theFederal Reserve. Everyone knows that the Federal Reserve actively andarbitrarily manages the USD, to try to further the USA's economic interests.That's explicitly the reason the Federal Reserve exists.

所有国家都“人为地”按照他们认为符合自身经济利益的方式管理货币供应。中国没有什么特别的。美联储也在以我们认为符合我们经济利益的方式，任意、任性地管理我们的货币供应。
“货币供应的任意设定”是转向法定货币的全部动机。每个使用法定货币的国家都这样做，因为它们喜欢能够任意设定货币供应量。
例如，我不知道你从哪里得到美元是“自我监管”的概念。它是由美联储监管的。大家都知道，美国联邦储备委员会为了进一步维护美国的经济利益，对美元进行了积极而武断的管理。这就是美联储存在的明确原因。

[–]JLCitadel
In the sense they control all numbersreleased and are known to falsify them to manipulate exchange rates.

从某种意义上说，他们控制着所有公布的数据，并以伪造这些数据来操纵汇率而闻名。

[–]Diningbat
Can you give an example of this kind offalse information promulgation?

你能举一个这种虚假信息传播的例子吗?

[–]adidasbdd
Bro if you think USD is as opaque as RMByou just aren't paying attention. You are somewhat right about manipulation inthat it is the inherent duty of the issuer to promote beneficial resultsthrough the fluctuation of relative value, but you are so wrong as to theorders of magnitude more tightly controlled the RMB is.

兄弟，如果你认为美元和人民币一样不透明，那说明你根本没注意。你说的操纵是对的，发行人有内在的责任通过相对价值的波动来促进有利的结果，但你错了，人民币汇率被更严格地控制了数量级。

[–]Diningbat
It's in China's economic interest to veryactively mange the renminbi in the way they do. It's in the US's interest toactively manage the USD in the way it does.
The fact that the two countries activelymanage their currencies in different ways and using different tools doesn'tcontradict anything I've said.

以他们的方式积极管理人民币符合中国的经济利益。积极管理美元符合美国的利益。
两国以不同的方式、使用不同的工具积极管理各自的货币，这与我所说的并不矛盾。

[–]catthunder
China has many big state ownedcompanies.These companies have no competency.They borrowed a lot money from thebanks and they can't pay off the debt.China government can't let them to bebroken.China government has to ”prints” money to pay the bill. I agree that manipulatingcurrency for economic growth happens everywhere. But this would causeinflation. US federal reserve has goal to maintain low inflation rate for longterm.But China central bank doesn't have such goal.That‘s why real estate pricesoaring in China not in US.

中国有许多大型国有企业。这些公司没有能力。他们从银行借了很多钱，却还不清债务。中国政府不能让他们破产。中国政府不得不“印”钱来支付账单。我同意操纵货币以促进经济增长的观点。但这会导致通货膨胀。美联储的目标是长期保持低通胀率。但中国央行没有这样的目标。这就是为什么中国的房地产价格飙升，而不是美国。

[–]KonniBOI
Maybe what some folks are trying to say isthat the degree of manipulation done by the CCP far exceeds that of the U.S?Essentially a lesser of two evils situation, wherein the increasedstability of the U.S dollar (even when taking their own CB's manipulation intoaccount) simply proves the better pragmatic and reliable (if not moral, Idunno, what with the difference in banks loaning money VS a authoritariangovernment loaning you money) alternative?
Edit: clarity

也许有些人想说的是中国的操纵程度远远超过了美国？从本质上说，只是两种罪恶局面中较轻的一种——增加了美元的稳定性（即使考虑到他们自己央行的操纵）只是证明了更好的实用和可靠（如果不讲道德，我不知道，从银行借钱和从专制政府借钱有什么区别）的选择？

[–]Diningbat
I think you miss that the wholesituation we're in today is historically contingent, and that a weak renminbiand strong dollar are two sides of the same coin.
So you can't talk about China duation, andpretend that the USD's strength as a store of value exists in a vacuum.
The USD's strength is due to the historicalsituation we're in, where we had a hugely dominant industrial economy post WW2,and this led to global currency dominance because everyone wanted USD to buy USindustrial goods. This demand for the USD made the USD, relative to othercurrencies, a very stable store of value.
But as the need for industrial goods produced inthe US has declined, the strength of the USD has been supported only by themomentum in the system, rather than being supported by any underlyingindustrial dominance, as was originally the case after WW2.
So yes, for a very long time, even after ourindustrial dominance declined, the USD has been sought because it has beenrelatively a strong currency and stable store of value. I agree with that.
But the momentum in the system is petering out,now, and that's what this article is about. Every day there are fewer and fewercompelling reasons to hold USD for real trade, for purchasing real industrialgoods. And as the world realizes that other currencies than the USD are just asuseful for real trade, for purchasing real industrial goods, the USD will loseits special relative strength (frequently called "exorbitantprivilege"), and with that its special usefulness as a store of value,which it only originally gained because of our industrial dominance.
So I definitely don't see the relative strength ofthe dollar as being in any way due to perceptions that other countries are lesscompetent to manage their currencies properly. It's just historical momentum.

我想你没有意识到，我们今天所处的整个形势在历史上是不确定的，弱势人民币和强势美元是同一枚硬币的两面。
因此，你不能一边谈论人民币贬值，一边假装美元作为一种价值储存手段的强势存在于真空中。
美元的强势是由于我们所处的历史环境所致，二战后我们拥有了一个巨大的主导工业经济，这导致了全球货币的主导地位，因为每个人都想要美元购买美国工业产品。这种对美元的需求使得美元相对于其他货币成为一种非常稳定的价值储存手段。
但随着对美国工业产品的需求下降，美元的强势只得到了体系内动能的支撑，而不是像二战后最初那样，得到任何潜在工业主导地位的支撑。
所以，是的，在很长一段时间里，即使在我们的工业主导地位下降之后，人们仍然在寻求美元，因为它是一种相对强势的货币和稳定的价值储存手段。我同意这一点。
但是现在，该系统中的势头正在逐渐减弱，这就是本文的内容。持有美元用于真正的贸易，用于购买真正的工业产品的令人信服的理由每天都在减少。并且当世界意识到除了美元以外的其他货币对实际贸易和购买实际工业产品同样有用时，美元将失去其特殊的相对优势（经常被称为“过度特权”），以及它作为一种价值储存手段具有特殊的用途——这种价值储存最初是由于我们在工业上的主导地位而获得的。
因此，我肯定不认为美元的相对强势有任何意义，因为人们认为其他国家没有能力妥善管理本国货币。这只是历史的大势而已。

[–]Where2cop
CCP knows and why do they care if someAnglosphere market economist or armchair dude like you can’t?

中国知道这一点，为什么他们会在意英语圈的市场经济学家或像你这样的纸上谈兵的家伙呢？

[–]Where2cop
Detriment how? Extreme poverty in China isjust about eradicated. Chinese people in China enjoy much higher standards ofliving / QoL. They have the largest FX reserves in the world.

怎么损害？中国的极端贫困几乎已经根除。在中国的中国人生活水平和质量更高了。它们拥有世界上最大的外汇储备。

[–]ziftee
Do you have a source for this?

你有消息来源吗？

[–]Where2cop
https://youtu.be/RIDN1cDhz7c
They aim to really reduce it by 2020. Likejust go Google-F-U pictures of Shenzhen or whatever Tier 1 city in China today.
https://youtu.be/WR0Zyfqwb08
Professor Zhang Weiwei articulatelyexplains (in great English as a Chinese foreigner if I may say) the why and howgiven your skepticism here.
And tbh, you can’t google this if notbelieve it? It’s not some obscure/esoteric statistic bro. Meanwhile theWest/U.S. is falling into socioeconomic disarray with poverty...

译注：一堆消息来源的链接

[–]blackscholz
Good luck with that China. All the Chinesedo is throw as much money as possible into hard assets due to distrust of theircurrency.

祝你好运。由于对中国货币的不信任，中国所做的就是尽可能多地向硬资产投资。

[–]dusmeyedin
Many of which are overseas, as theydistrust their entire economy.

他们中的许多人都在海外，因为他们不信任整个经济。

[–]Where2cop857
Their economy is what made them richthough...

正是他们的经济才使他们富裕……

[–]hngysh
Those who have made their money alreadyknow best how easy it is for the government to take it all away.

那些赚了钱的人最清楚，政府要把钱都拿走有多容易。

[–]TheRealDJ
Also there will be a crash that will beincredibly large, the government knows it too, but the people have no inklingthat maybe things like the housing market shouldn't be doubling every fewyears, and take huge loans out to be in it as aggressively as possible.

政府也知道，崩盘规模会非常大，但人们没有意识到，也许像房地产市场这样的东西不应该每隔几年翻一番，然后尽可能大举放贷。

[–]nowhereman1280
There is nothing scarier out there than thepotential for an economic correction in China. They haven't had a recession in40 years. It's just like a forest that hasn't had a wild fire for a century,there is an awful lot of undergrowth just waiting to ignite.

没有什么比中国出现经济调整的可能性更可怕的了。他们已经40年没有衰退了。这就像一个世纪没有野火的森林，有很多灌木丛等着被点燃。

[–]Where2cop857
A lot of people in the elite financialsector you mean in comparison to the general population of China withrags-to-rich stories?
Moving money overseas doesn’t automaticallymean they distrust their entire economy. If you’re a Chinese millionaire rightnow you still can’t buy top tier healthcare and a globalist education as youcan in the states...simply because of the lagging healthcare and infrastructuredevelopment compared to the West.
That and all the pollution for being theworlds factory. Y’know the exploited labor to make your electronic device toreply to me here on Reddit.

你的意思是，与中国那些白手起家的普通民众相比，很多精英金融行业的人？
将资金转移到海外并不意味着他们不信任整个经济。如果你现在是中国的百万富翁，你仍然无法像在美国那样买到顶级的医疗保健和全球化的教育……仅仅是因为中国的医疗和基础设施发展落后于西方。
还有作为世界工厂的所有污染。你要知道，你在Reddit上回复我的电子设备，是被剥削的劳工制造的。

[–]TheHoodedFlamebearer
This doesn't even make any sense. Chinesemillionaires simply let their kids study in other countries.
Secondly, you're acting like the US has agood healthcare system.
Thirdly I don't know what pollution has todo with this but the Chinese government could regulate or demolish thesefactories yet they don't because they don't care about the general populationand care more about money. So it's not like this is a one sided problem.

这根本说不通。中国的百万富翁只是让他们的孩子在其他国家学习。
其次，你说得好像美国有一个良好的医疗体系似的。
第三，我不知道污染和这有什么关系，但是中国政府可以管理或拆除这些工厂，但他们没有，因为他们不关心一般的人口，更关心钱。所以这不是单方面的问题。

[–]Where2cop857
Uh, they also buy condos/houses for theirchildren to study abroad.
US healthcare system is good if you can payfor it especially in cash, duh. Why do you do you think Arabs flock toChildren’s Hospital Boston?
As for pollution, if you actuallyinvestigated Chinese rationale, there is big complaints about domesticpollution. So it’s an incentive to get away as well.
Your shifting argument about CCP tackingpollution is disingenuous at best. They already are tackling the problem withpolicy directives. Beggars can’t be choosers, duh. So they become the world’sfactory while the Westerners like you can have your bigoted cake and eat ittoo.

嗯，他们也买公寓/房子给他们的孩子出国留学。
美国的医疗体系很好，如果你能付得起钱，尤其是现金。你认为为什么阿拉伯人会涌向波士顿儿童医院？
至于污染，如果你真的调查过中国的基本原理，就会发现人们对国内污染有很多抱怨。所以这也是一种逃离的动机。
你关于中国治理污染的论点，往好里说也是虚伪的。他们已经在用政策指令来解决这个问题。乞丐是不会挑肥拣瘦的。所以他们成为世界工厂，而西方人喜欢你的偏见蛋糕并享受它。

[–]Where2cop
The Aramco Arabs buy condos and send theirkids to $$$ universities...they also send their infants to Children’s HospitalBoston where they only specialize on one specific genetic disease treatment.For them to diversify their money into American real estate...does it meantheir Aramco oil oligarch is gonna collapse?
China had the sheer size, making moremillionaires and billionaires faster than the US. Just because they move somemoney out doesn’t mean it’s not profit that they extracted. You’refeearmongering specifically at the globalist Chinese RE investors.
Have you not looked at China’ssocioeconomic indicators per a capita terms? Their earning power, purchasingpower, and standards of living are rising...and is expected to rise.
Which Chinese distrusts their economy? Haveyou talked to them? Can you cite an article-interview where they’ve lamentedabout this? Sounds like projection to me.
The CCP can of course wield theauthoritarian hammer and seize shit like Fidel Castro with Cubanos...but asidefrom corruption cases why would they interfere with successful businesspeoplelike Jack Ma of Alibaba bringing prosperity and jobs to the Chinese peopletoday? Why fuck up a good thing?

沙特阿美的阿拉伯人购买公寓，把孩子送到价值$$的大学……他们还把婴儿送到波士顿儿童医院，在那里他们只专注于一种特定的遗传疾病治疗。对他们来说，将资金分散到美国房地产市场……这是否意味着他们的沙特阿美石油寡头将要垮台了？
中国的经济规模庞大，百万富翁和亿万富翁的数量超过了美国。仅仅因为他们转移了一些钱并不意味着他们没有获得利润。你是在专门向全球主义的中国再保险投资者兜售。
你没有看过中国的人均社会经济指标吗？他们的赚钱能力、购买力和生活水平都在提高……而且预计还会上升。
哪个中国人不信任他们的经济？你和他们交谈过吗？你能举出一个他们曾对此表示遗憾的文章采访吗？听起来像捕风捉影。
中国当然可以挥舞威权之锤，就像像菲德尔•卡斯特罗对古巴人一样，攫取古巴人民的利益……但是，除了腐败案件，他们为什么要干预像阿里巴巴的马云这样的，为今天的中国人民带来繁荣和就业机会成功商人呢？为什么要搞砸一件好事？

[–]Where2cop857
I base this off things read years ago and Iam half drunk from thanksgiving so I’m not looking into it now
Don’t waste my time being intellectuallylazy.Shit you read is biased. Likewise, it seems you have an all-encompassingview, if not, one with an agenda.
Corrupt money will always exists. Doesn’tmean the economy is faltering. You’re extrapolating one segment of a phenomenononto your anti-Sino fearmongering. If you’re moving corrupt ill-gotten gains ofcourse you’re gonna be fearful of the CCP.. and of course, it needs to beoutside of their jurisdiction and rule of law.

“我是根据几年前读到的东西写的这篇文章，感恩节那天我喝得酩酊大醉，所以我现在没有深入调查”
不要把我的时间浪费在懒惰上。你读的垃圾东西是有偏见的。同样，你的观点似乎包罗万象，如果不是这样的话，那也是有目的的。
腐败的钱将永远存在。这并不意味着经济正在衰退。你是在把一种现象的一部分外推到你的反华恐慌活动上。如果你在转移腐败的不义之财，那你当然会害怕中国。当然，这需要超出他们的管辖范围和法治。

[–]dusmeyedin
Ah, a fellow /r/sino reader.
My worry is: what contribution does thismake to the Chinese economy if the top earners then put their savings overseasin real estate? This would be the same problem that the Chiang Kai-Shekadministration had, where vast amounts of U.S. aid was actually beingreinvested into foreign real estate instead of actually helping Chinesesociety.
The Chinese economy has leapt forwards,especially in the real estate sector, but this growth is mostly due tohistorical undervaluation which corrected itself after the 2007 laws allowingprivate ownership. Plus, the surfeit of supply is causing under utilization.
I'm all for Chinese economic growth - youcan't have stability in the world's largest nation without it - but I'mconcerned by the warning signs.

啊，一个中国读者。
我担心的是：如果高收入者将他们的储蓄投向海外房地产，这对中国经济有何贡献？这和当初常凯申政府面临的问题是一样的，当时美国的大量援助实际上被重新投资于外国房地产，而不是真正帮助中国社会。
中国经济突飞猛进，尤其是在房地产领域，但这一增长主要是由于历史上的低估，在2007年允许私人所有的法律出台后，这种低估得到了纠正。此外，供应过剩导致利用率不足。
我完全支持中国的经济增长——没有它，世界上最大的国家不可能有稳定——但我对这些警告信号感到担忧。

[–]ynhnwn
The RMB is actually a remarkably stablecurrency relatively speaking.

人民币实际上是一种相对稳定的货币。

[–]blackscholz
Of course. They intervene quite a bit.

当然了。因为他们经常干预它。

[–]Vivalyrian
the manipulation and lack of transparency
Sorta like the dollar, then?

操纵并缺乏透明度
有点像美元，然后呢？

[–]adidasbdd
When compared to China rmb or ruble? Lolit's not even a comparison. Don't be dumb

和中国的人民币或卢布相比？
哈哈，这甚至根本不好比。不要秀智商下限

[–]merton1111
Let's look at the US level of debt...
Let's look at China's level of debt...

让我们看看美国的债务水平……
让我们看看中国的债务水平……

[–]UnconstitutionalBot
The ruble and Yuan aren't backed by thesame authority as the USD and they have tax collecting issues as well. That'swhat pumps your currency value. This is just PR for Russia and China to getinvestors. Russia ruble is a joke on FoRex markets and the Yuan although risingdoesn't have a history as a reserve currency or trading on the currencymarkets. They became a globally traded currency around 2007 I believe andinvestors still don't see it as a safe investment.

卢布和人民币没有美元那样的权威支持，它们还有税收问题。这就是你的货币价值所在。这只是俄罗斯和中国在吸引投资者的公关。俄罗斯卢布在外汇市场上是个笑话，而人民币虽然升值，当并没有成为储备货币或在外汇市场上交易的历史。我认为，它们在2007年左右就成为了一种全球交易货币，而投资者仍不认为它是一种安全的投资。

[–]Where2cop857
China and Russia has every motive to divertfrom a $USD reserve currency because it empowers the currency too much. Even ifPetroyuan will initially fall against the PetroUSD for the time being.

中国和俄罗斯完全有动机从美元储备货币转向美元储备货币，因为它赋予了美元太多的权力。即使石油人民币对抗石油美元一开始会下跌，但也是暂时的。

[–]dukie5440
You mean like when the US treasury startedprinting money like mad and exporting our debt because we're a reservecurrency. Everyone manipulates their currency

你的意思是，就像美国财政部开始疯狂印钞、出口我们的债务那样，因为我们是储备货币。所有人都操纵他们的货币

[–]TPSreportsPro
That's a problem we will have to deal within the near future. Our politicians, most of which have zero economicseducation, have allowed the bond market to become a future generation disaster.Probably so large, that it will be taught in economics 50 years from now.

这是我们在不久的将来必须解决的问题。我们的政客们，大多数人没有接受过任何经济学教育，让债券市场成为未来一代的灾难。也许规模会很大，以至于50年后的经济学将会教授它。

[–]KonniBOI
Excuse me, but as a curious butill-informed 18-year old, would you mind telling why this will become a problemdown the line? I was under the impression that bonds were safe(r) becausestable governments are likelier to pay back their loans. Is it due to the USstaggering national debt that a complete payback of the government loans to thelenders is unachievable?

不好意思，作为一个18岁的好奇而又无知的孩子，你能告诉我为什么这会成为一个问题吗？我的印象是债券是安全的，因为稳定的政府更有可能偿还贷款。是美国的原因吗？是由于美国惊人的国债，政府向贷款机构提供的贷款无法完全偿还吗？

[–]TPSreportsPro
That's a lot to answer but Karl Denningerhas written a lot on this. You can read his work here,https://market-ticker.org
I don't always agree with him, but he has adecent assessment of the bond market and it's future.
The problem the government has is interestrates. There's talk of rolling 30 year bonds into a new 100 year bond (cankicking). But at some point, we can't avoid the fact that people are owed onthese notes. Printing money and monatizing debt can only get you so far.
If you get a chance, watch "The Secretof Oz" by Bill Still. It's on YouTube. He also has a decent book that Icontributed to called No More National Debt.
Hand copies to all of your friends. You'llmost likely be the generation that has to fix it.

关于此有很多问题需要回答，但是卡尔·丹宁格已经写了很多关于这个问题的文章。你可以在这里读到他的作品，https://market-ticker.org
我并不总是同意他的观点，但他对债券市场及其未来有一个不错的评估。政府的问题是利率。有人说要把30年期债券转换成100年期债券。但在某种程度上，我们无法避免人们欠这些纸币的事实。印钞票和鼓吹债务只会让你走到这一步。
如果你有机会，还是看比尔的《奥兹的秘密》吧。在YouTube上。他还有一本不错的书，我也参与了，书名是《不要再增加国家债务了》。
抄送给你所有的朋友。你们这一代人很可能需要解决这个问题。

[–]KonniBOI
Alright, looks very interesting! I'll makesure to read and watch what you sent me. And I guess some of my friends areinterested in this topic as well, I'll make sure to spread the word. Althoughthe fact that I'm not an American but a Dane means that it might not be myfirst priority for me to address, I - naturally - understand the gravity of thesituation. I'll do my part to make sure more young people are made aware ofthis situation. Thanks!

好的，看起来很有趣！我一定要看看你发给我的东西。我想我的一些朋友也对这个话题感兴趣，我一定会把它传播出去。虽然我不是美国人而是丹麦人，这一事实意味着这可能不是我首先要解决的问题，但我自然理解这种情况的严重性。我将尽我所能让更多的年轻人意识到这种情况。谢谢！

[–]glodime
There is no need to actually pay it allback as long as our credit stays good, it can all just roll over. A country'scredit is good when they are stable, with a vibrant economy, can weathereconomic downturns, and keep the size of debt and debt servicing at areasonable level compared to GDP.
It may never become a problem, buteverytime national debt increases, it's good to reuate these things. Therecent budget that scheduled to add $1 Trillion in debt wasn't the best movefrom a macroeconomic perspective as it increased the country's risk without agood potential for return, but it is also not necessarily leading to adisaster.
I was under the impression that bonds weresafe(r) because stable governments are likelier to pay back their loans.
Which bonds? Safer than what?

其实没有必要全部偿还，只要我们的信用保持良好，就可以全部展期。当一个国家的信用稳定、经济充满活力、能够经受住经济衰退、并将债务规模和偿债规模与国内生产总值保持在合理水平时，这个国家的信用是好的。它可能永远不会成为一个问题，但随着每次国家债务增加，重新评估这些东西是很好的做法。最近的预算计划增加1万亿美元的债务，从宏观经济的角度来看，这不是最好的举措，因为它增加了国家的风险，却没有良好的回报潜力，但也不一定会导致灾难。
“我的印象是债券是安全的，因为稳定的政府更有可能偿还贷款。”
哪种债券？比什么安全？

[–]TPSreportsPro
Until interest rates spike. Then the costto service greatly increases.

直到利率飙升。然后服务成本大大增加。

[–]glodime
It's like you did read what I wrote. Didyou?

你好像真的读了我写的东西。是吗？

[–]KonniBOI
Thanks for the answer, I just have onequestion. What/when/why does a country's credit stay good? And what exactlydoes "roll over" mean in this context?
I was under the impression that bonds weresafe(r) because stable governments are likelier to pay back their loans.
Which bonds? Safer than what?
Bonds issued from stable governments areusually safer on return for the investor (ordinary civilians) thanstocks/bear-bull, ect. The compromise is that the interest rates are usuallylower and somewhat fixated(?). If I were to invest my money in somethingprecariously, it would be bonds, given the almost assumed return on myinvestment (I live in an economically prosperous and stable country, Denmark),as governments rarely default on their loans here, not to mention they are lessfluctuating than the stock market. Or am I missing something here?

谢谢你的回答，我只有一个问题。一个国家的信用保持良好是什么意思？什么时候能保持良好？为什么要保持良好？在这种情况下，“延期偿还”究竟是什么意思？
“我的印象是债券是安全的，因为稳定的政府更有可能偿还贷款。”
“哪种债券？比什么安全？”
对于投资者（普通老百姓）来说，从稳定的政府发行的债券通常比股票/熊市更安全。折衷的办法是利率通常较低，而且在某种程度上是固定不变的（？）如果我要把我的钱投资在一些不稳定的东西上，那就是债券，因为我的投资回报几乎是假定的（我生活在一个经济繁荣稳定的国家，丹麦），由于政府很少拖欠贷款，更不用说它们的波动比股市要小了。还是我遗漏了什么？

[–]Beachdaddybravo
Almost all oil in the world with a fewnations’ exceptions, is traded using USD. Our currency is essentially backed byoil. There are obvious issues and advantages, and over the future they willdetermine how our economy weathers the storm so to speak.

除少数国家外，世界上几乎所有的石油都是用美元交易的。我们的货币基本上是由石油支撑的。有一些明显的问题和优势，可以说，在未来它们将决定我们的经济如何抵御风暴。

[–]tim_de_dong
It will suppress it's value, but usage willlikely grow as Russians, Iranians, Venezuelans, etc look for ways to avoidgetting sanctioned or shut out of the global payments system.

这会抑制它的价值，但随着俄罗斯人、伊朗人、委内瑞拉人等想方设法避免受到制裁或被排除在全球支付体系之外，它的使用可能会增加。

[–]Sacrosacnt
About time

时间问题而已

[–]SwapnilSKanade
Its important to not rely too much on USdollar. Russia, China & Iran started using their currencies. Even Europehas also decided to ditch US dollar.

重要的是不要太依赖美元。俄罗斯、中国和伊朗开始使用他们的货币。甚至欧洲也决定放弃美元。

[–]RestrictedAccount
How is that working for them?

这对他们有什么作用？

[–]SwapnilSKanade
Its working for business within them. Weare also thinking about buying oil from Iran in local currency, but need tothink about obligations from US. So we will have to perform balancing act, itsquite tricky.

对它们内部的企业有作用。我们也在考虑以本币从伊朗购买石油，但需要考虑不违背美国。所以我们必须平衡，这是相当棘手的。

[–]boughtitout
In violation of US sanctions. That's onerisky gamble to take.

违反了美国的制裁。这是一场冒险的赌博。

[–]Magjee
Those US Sanctions might not have muchteeth
It's a unilateral move to try and isolateIran
Pakistan, India and China all have existingroutes, trains, pipelines etc. to import Iranian oil
They don't want to shut that down toappease the US, much less over no reason when Iran was cooperating the NuclearAgreement
China already said they wouldnt stop tradewith Iran, this is the weakening of American Soft Power

美国的制裁可能没有多大效力
这是一场试图孤立伊朗的单方面行动
巴基斯坦、印度和中国都有现有的进口伊朗石油的路线、火车、管道等
他们不想为了安抚美国而关闭核电站，更不想在伊朗与核协议合作的时候毫无理由地关闭核电站
中国已经表示不会停止与伊朗的贸易，这标志着美国软实力的削弱

[–]boughtitout
It's about cost v benefit. Companies whohave existing trade with the US aren't going to trade with Iran because ithurts their bottom line too much. It doesn't matter where they're located; itjust matters who their trade partners are.

这是成本vs效益的问题。与美国有贸易往来的公司不会与伊朗进行贸易，因为这对它们的利润造成了太大伤害。它们在哪里并不重要；重要的是他们的贸易伙伴是谁。

[–]Magjee
The location plays a role with oil though,since they already have the physical infrastructure for it

不过，地理位置对石油也有影响，因为他们已经具备了开采石油的基础设施

[–]boughtitout
Yeah the investment in infrastructure hasalready been done, but that's leaning towards the sunk cost fallacy. Justbecause they've already set it up doesn't mean it makes sense to continue totrade with them. It's a case by case basis as to whether it makes sense for thecompany. If they don't work with the USA, then they won't care about thesanctions. If they do, then they will be more hesitant to continue trade withIran.

是的，基础设施投资已经完成了，但这倾向于沉没成本谬论。仅仅因为他们已经建立了它，并不意味着继续与他们进行贸易是有意义的。这是根据具体情况来决定是否对公司有意义。如果他们不和美国合作，他们就不会关心制裁。如果他们这样做了，他们将更加犹豫是否继续与伊朗进行贸易。

[–]Magjee
It's not companies though in this case, thelogistics of buying Iranian oil or swapping the supply system would not bepossible inside of a few months

在这种情况下，购买伊朗石油或交换供应系统的后勤保障工作在几个月内是不可能实现的

[–]ric2b
This is why Trump was elected, to make theworld respect the US less and laugh at it more.
Or was it the other way around? Nah, itmust be correct because that's what Trump has been doing.

这就是特朗普当选的原因，让世界少尊重美国，多嘲笑美国。
还是反过来？不，这肯定是正确的，因为特朗普一直在这么做。

[–]SithisDreadLord420
You mean the sanctions we placed back onIran for literally no reason except to pretend that we are tough on terror?

你的意思是我们对伊朗实施的制裁，除了假装我们对恐怖主义很强硬之外，没有任何其他理由？

[–]boughtitout
I'm just here to talk a little economics,not about why we did it.

我只是想谈谈经济学，而不是我们为什么要这么做。

[–]SithisDreadLord
I don’t think our sanctions hold weightinternationally anymore is kinda what I’m getting at. The rest of the worldstill respects the Iran nuclear deal so why should they even think about the USsanctions when for the past two years the US just acts randomly and sporadically.

我不认为我们的制裁在国际上有什么分量，这是我想说的。世界其他国家仍然尊重伊朗核协议，在过去两年美国只是随机、零星地采取行动的情况下，他们为什么还要考虑美国的制裁呢？

[–]boughtitout
My point is financial. Sanctions aredirected at companies that interact with the targeted countries. They holdweight because the companies that do business in the US would be, to myunderstanding, barred from that lucrative US market if they continue tradingwith Iran. Generally, trade with the US is much more valuable than trade withIran. It's why the sanctions will generally work. Iran will still do businessof course by companies that don't have the US as part of their portfolio. Butthose that do will likely stop because the impact to their revenue would be toohigh.

我的观点与财政有关。制裁针对的是与目标国家进行互动的公司。它们之所以有分量，是因为在我看来，如果继续与伊朗进行贸易，在美国做生意的公司将被禁止进入利润丰厚的美国市场。总的来说，与美国的贸易比与伊朗的贸易更有价值。这就是制裁通常会奏效的原因。当然，伊朗仍然会与那些不把美国作为投资组合一部分的公司做生意。但那些这样做的公司可能会停手，因为这对它们的收入影响太大。

[–]silent_cat
They hold weight because the companies thatdo business in the US would be, to my understanding, barred from that lucrativeUS market if they continue trading with Iran.
While true, the vast majority of businessesin the world don't interact with the US, so trading with Iran is interestingand you know you won't have any major players competing with you. Good why togrow your business quickly.

“它们之所以有分量，是因为在我看来，如果继续与伊朗进行贸易，在美国做生意的公司将被禁止进入利润丰厚的美国市场”
诚然，世界上绝大多数企业不与美国互动，因此与伊朗进行贸易很有趣，你知道不会有任何主要参与者与你竞争。很好，为什么要快速发展你的业务。

[–]SithisDreadLord
I read that us reimposing sanctionsactually hurt the us economy and our control over the oil market bc we reducedproduction and since Iran can’t sell oil it gives more control to OPEC. Sosanctions aren’t even always good for us when we place them against othercountries. Plus I think if we really want to change the culture of anothercountry and get them to be more democratic and progressive we should start witheconomics. Get our companies involved sell our products their, sell ourculture, the common man will always choose freedom and democracy

我读到美国重新实施制裁实际上伤害了美国经济和我们对石油市场的控制，因为我们减少了产量，因为伊朗不能出售石油，它给了欧佩克更多的控制权。因此，当我们对其他国家实施制裁时，制裁甚至并不总是对我们有利。再加上，我认为，如果我们真的想改变另一个国家的文化，让他们变得更加民主和进步，我们应该从经济开始。让我们的公司参与进来，推销我们的产品，推销我们的文化，普通人会永远选择自由和民主的

[–]Twitchingbouse
European Union countries want to defy U.S.President Donald Trump and keep funds flowing to Iran to save the nuclearagreement -- just as long as it doesn’t happen in their backyard.
EU nations have identified Austria as thebest candidate to host a special purpose vehicle that could handle payments toIran, according to three people familiar with the negotiations. Austria itselfis not so keen. Belgium, Luxembourg and France have also been identified aspotential venues but Belgium and Luxembourg have declined while France islooking to Austria.
After discussing the idea with the rest ofthe government in Vienna, the foreign ministry decided that it “wouldn’t befeasible” for Austria to host the venture, a ministry spokeswoman said.

欧盟国家想无视美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的做法，继续向伊朗提供资金，以挽救核协议——只要他们的后院不起火。
据三名熟悉谈判情况的人士透露，欧盟国家已经确定，奥地利是主办一个特殊目的机构的最佳候选，该机构可能负责向伊朗支付款项。奥地利本身并不热衷。比利时、卢森堡和法国也被确定为潜在的投资地点，但比利时和卢森堡拒绝了，而法国则把目光投向了奥地利。
外交部发言人表示，在与维也纳政府其他部门讨论过这个想法后，外交部认为，奥地利“不可能”承办该合资企业。

[–]Gitanes
Well...since China multiplied by x10 theirGDP per capita in the last 25 years and the EU grew 40% in the same period. Iwould say that it is working pretty well for them.

好吧……自中国在过去25年人均GDP乘以x10以来，欧盟同期增长了40%。我想说这对他们来说非常有效。

[–]MasterBerter
Well...since China multiplied by x10 theirGDP per capita in the last 25 years
The starting point was subsistence farmingand the path was industrialization to catch up towards developed countries. Noalready developed country is going to see that type of growth by ditching thedollar.

“自中国在过去25年人均GDP乘以x10以来”
这种增长的起点是自给自足的农业，并且道路是工业化，以赶上发达国家。没有哪个发达国家会通过抛弃美元来实现这种增长

[–]Vladimus44
No already developed country is going tosee that type of growth by ditching the dollar.
Okay. But that's a false dichotomy.Ditching the dollar merely needs to provide potential for growth. A betteralternative. It doesn't need to promise insane industrial levels of growth tostill be a good idea.

“没有哪个发达国家会通过抛弃美元来实现这种增长”
好吧。但这是错误的二分法。抛弃美元仅仅是为了提供增长潜力。一个更好的选择。它不需要承诺疯狂的工业增长水平，仍然是一个好主意。

[–]Ssrithrowawayssri
So what is evidence of ditching the dollarproviding potential for growth?

那么，有什么证据表明放弃美元能够提供增长潜力呢？

[–]Gitanes
I wasn't comparing the EU growth vs China.Obviously, a 3rd world country would grow faster than an already developed one.I was saying that those two are examples of great economic growth without usingUS dollar.

我没有拿欧盟的增长与中国进行比较。很明显，第三世界国家的增长速度将超过已经发展的国家。我刚才说的是，这两个国家都是在不使用美元的情况下取得了巨大经济增长的例子。

[–]mucow
But the Yuan is backed by the US dollar, soI feel it's overstating things a bit to say they're not using the US dollar fortrade.

但是人民币是由美元支撑的，所以我觉得说他们不使用美元进行贸易有点言过其实。

[–]westsidefashionist
It’ll work better and better for them thelonger they do it. They are propping up their our economic systems by avoidingthe US dollar and using their own currencies. The more and longer they usetheir own currencies, the more their currencies will grow in value compared tothe US dollar. The US dollar is no longer a necessity for oil; which has been decidedafter the unjust wars in Iraq and Libya. Too much American injustice throughoutthe world has reminded every other country to stop participating with aspect ofthe US that systematically instill an unequal power of currencies.

他们这么做的时间越长，效果越好。他们通过回避美元、使用本国货币来支撑我们的经济体系。他们使用本国货币的时间越长，本国货币相对于美元的升值幅度就越大。美元不再是石油的必需品；这是在伊拉克和利比亚的非正义战争之后决定的。美国在全球范围内的太多不公正行为，已提醒其它所有国家停止参与到美国系统性地灌输一种不平等货币力量的方面。

[–]SpennyLL
Just because it will be initially painfulto ditch that the dollar doesn't mean they won't. History and nature clearlylays out the fact that individuals and nations are willing to suffer short termif it will give them a leg up in the hierarchy long term.

放弃美元最初会让人痛苦，但这并不意味着他们不会这么做。历史和自然清楚地表明了这样一个事实：个人和国家愿意忍受短期的痛苦，如果这能让他们在长期的等级制度中占据优势的话。

[–]UnconstitutionalBot 1 7
The EU trades on the Euro but it is basedon the USD value. They're still trading with dollars on the back end. No onecan replace the USD because you need to recreate the entire system fromscratch. Everyone knows this and if you go onto your own system then you willlose out on investment from foreigners.

欧盟以欧元交易，但它是以美元价值为基础的。他们仍然在用美元进行交易。没有人可以取代美元，因为您需要从头创建整个系统。每个人都知道这一点，如果你进入自己的系统，你就会失去来自外国人的投资。

[–]rethinkingat
Its important to not rely too much on USdollar. Russia, China & Iran started using their currencies. Even Europehas also decided to ditch US dollar.
There is a lot of confusion and ignoranceobviously on this whole ditching the dollar talk.
When two entities (Corporations and/orGovernments) do business they have a contract that spell out what currency theywill be paid in, and when they will be paid.
US corporations sign deals everyday wherethey agree to be paid in the local countries currency.
Example-A few years ago Oracle and othercompanies with long term contracts took major write downs when the Venezuelancurrency nose-dived. They were paid at the end of an IT contract in Boliviar's(?) but that currency had dropped by over 50% vs the dollar between the signingand payment of the contract. So any 100 million dollar deal became a 50 milliondollar deal.
After that Oracle announced all future contractswith Venezuelan companies must be paid in US dollars. (They still have huge oilcompanies)
I assume Chinese companies and Russiancompanies often use Dollars in their contracts payment terms, but nothingbefore has stopped them from citing another currency for payments other thanrisk.
Has that risk gone away?
It's important to remember the Chinesecurrency doesn't work like other currencies. It's not freely traded. TheChinese central bank sets a guiding point for it every day, and that sends a signalto the market of where it expects the yuan to go.
Recently as a tool in the trade war and aslowdown in the Chinese economy the Yaun has been purposefully dued vs thedollar.
Russian companies either trust this processnow or they don't. If they do trust the Chinese currency why haven't they beenaccepting payments in it for the past decade?
There is nothing special about the dollarother than its stability.
That hasn't changed.

“重要的是不要太依赖美元。俄罗斯、中国和伊朗开始使用他们的货币。甚至欧洲也决定放弃美元”
很明显，在整个抛弃美元言论的过程中，存在着许多困惑和无知。
当两个实体（公司和/或政府）做生意时，他们会达成一份合同，其中明确了他们将以何种货币支付，以及何时支付。
美国公司每天签署协议，同意用当地货币支付。
例如，几年前，当委内瑞拉货币暴跌时，甲骨文公司和其他拥有长期合同的公司出现了重大资产减记。他们在玻利维亚（？）的一份IT合同结束时得到了报酬，但在合同签署和付款之间，玻利维亚货币对美元汇率下跌了50%以上。所以任何1亿美元的交易都变成了5000万美元的交易。
在那之后，甲骨文宣布未来与委内瑞拉公司的所有合同都必须以美元支付。（他们仍然拥有大型石油公司）
“我认为，中国企业和俄罗斯企业在合同支付条款中经常使用美元，但此前除了风险以外，没有什么能阻止它们使用另一种货币支付”
这种风险消失了吗？
重要的是要记住，人民币不像其他货币那样有效。它不是自由交易的。中国央行每天都为人民币汇率设定一个指导点，这向市场发出了一个信号，表明它预计人民币汇率将何去何从。
最近，作为贸易战和中国经济放缓的一个工具，人民币兑美元汇率被有意贬值。
俄罗斯企业要么现在信任这个过程，要么就不信任。如果他们真地相信人民币，那为什么过去10年他们一直不接受人民币付款呢？
除了美元的稳定性之外，美元没有什么特别之处。
这并没有改变。

[–]nowhereman
No one is losing confidence in the dollar,rouge states with authoritarian governments have decided they are sick of theUS using their currency to punish bad behavior and want to get out from underit.
Meanwhile the dollar is pushing multidecade highs against most currencies.

没有人对美元失去信心，拥有威权政府的红色国家已经决定，它们厌倦了美国用本国货币惩罚不良行为，希望摆脱这种局面。
与此同时，美元兑多数货币汇率正创下数十年来的新高。

[–]johnnyzao
They are actually done with US having thepower to dictate the world by having control over "the international"currency. If you don't know the absurd international advantage the control ofthe dollar gives the US, such as paying all it's international debt by creatingmore money without much consequences and, because of this, being able tocontract more and more international debt, then read about internationalmonetary theories.
Why is it the international currency? Notbecause of trust, but because it's the biggest economy and because it's backedby the most powerful army in the world.
No, it's not fair and it's absolutely notmeritocratic. It's also not fair for the US to judge and condemn other statesby their own rule and say what is or what isn't acceptable and then punish themthrough it's currency.
Who exactly gave the US the authority torule the world, and why do you think it's less autoritharian than China (I meaninternationally, not domestically).

实际上，我们已经没有权力通过控制“国际”货币来主宰世界。如果你不知道对美元的控制给美国带来的荒谬的国际优势，比如通过创造更多的货币来偿还它所有的国际债务，却没有造成什么后果，正因为如此，美国能够收缩越来越多的国际债务，然后研究国际货币理论。
为什么它是国际货币？不是因为信任，而是因为它是最大的经济体，因为它得到了世界上最强大军队的支持
不，这不公平，也绝对不是精英统治。美国用自己的规则来评判和谴责其他国家，说什么是可以接受的，什么是不可接受的，然后用自己的货币惩罚这些国家，这也是不公平的。
到底是谁给了美国统治世界的权力，为什么你认为美国没有中国那么专制（我是说在国际上，而不是国内）。

[–]heartfelt24
The world is moving towards a common codefor human rights. Those who don't adhere to it will keep getting penalised. TheUS generally plays its part as the global policeman well. American military andeconomic might has helped destroy a lot of autocrats, and it also helps themasses in other nations achieve a modern standard of existence. The US hasliterally destroyed many rogue nations, which helps prevent those nations frombecoming too powerful and influencing the world in a negative way.
P.S. Not an American.

世界正在走向一项共同的人权准则。那些不遵守规则的人将继续受到惩罚。美国总体上很好地扮演着全球警察的角色。美国的军事和经济实力帮助摧毁了许多人，也帮助其他国家的民众实现了现代的生存标准。美国实际上已经摧毁了许多流氓国家，这有助于防止这些国家变得过于强大，以消极的方式影响世界。
PS：我不是美国人。

[–]johnnyzao
American military and economic financedmany other autocracies, like the saudis, like Hussein and so on. They plannedand helped the south american dicatorships. They have mass slave work in theform of mass incarceration that need to work.
How is this country entitled to judge whatis and what is not respecting the human rights?
Their work as the world police is nottoward better human rights around the world, it's toward maintaning the US asthe only global power.
Plus, none of the recent "helps"the US offered, actually achieved anything other than chaos in all thecountries they took military action and invaded. How can you call that a help?

美国的军事和经济资助了许多其他国家，比如沙特，侯赛因等等。他们计划并帮助南美洲的总统竞选。他们有大量的奴隶工作以大规模监禁的形式需要工作。
这个国家凭什么有权判断什么是和什么是不尊重人权的？
他们作为世界警察的工作并不是为了在世界各地改善人权，而是为了维护美国作为唯一全球大国的地位。
此外，美国最近提供的“帮助”，除了在它们采取军事行动并入侵的所有国家陷入混乱之外，实际上什么也没有实现。你怎么能叫它帮忙呢？

[–]rethinkingat59
As a conservative American I agree, partly.
You are wrong about the purpose of whyAmerica agreed to be the world's police. (It is very costly with a horriblereturn on investment)
You are right that we should abandon therole of the world's police . We have ample powers to defend our giant islandnation, and a big navy to keep international shipping lanes safe.
Other than that we should let the worldsort out their disagreements. They did it for thousands of years prior to thelate 1940's, not always pretty, but not a US problem either.
For years we have deemed it ourresponsibility to take the lead whenever a sovereign nation is invaded byanother nation. This role as world police has led to a much more stable,peaceful world, but at great financial cost to the American people.
We are only 5% of the world's population.Let's the regional powers decide who the area big boys are, and that regionalpowers can police their region as they choose or are allowed to militarily byothers in the region.
Certainly we should vow to never again getinvolved in any civil wars, even for humanitarian reasons.
Taking sides in a civil or religious war isalways a losing proposition. In time, a winner will emerge to rule without anyhelp from us, and we should respect their sovereignty.

作为一个保守的美国人，我在一定程度上同意这一点。
你错误地理解了为什么美国同意成为世界警察。（投资回报率很低，而成本很高）
你说得对，我们应该放弃世界警察的作用。我们有足够的力量保卫我们这个巨大的岛国，我们有一支强大的海军保障国际航道的安全。
除此之外，我们应该让世界来解决他们的分歧。在20世纪40年代末之前的几千年里，他们一直这样做，虽然并不总是很漂亮，但也不是美国的问题。
多年来，每当一个主权国家被另一个国家侵略时，我们都认为我们有责任带头。作为世界警察的这一作用已经导致了一个更加稳定、和平的世界，但美国人民为此付出了巨大的经济代价。
我们只占世界人口的5%。让地区大国来决定谁是这个地区的老大，地区大国可以根据自己的选择来管理自己的地区，也可以根据地区其他国家的军事要求来管理自己的地区。
当然，我们应该发誓绝不再卷入任何内战，即使是出于人道主义理由。
在一场内战或宗教战争中偏袒任何一方都是注定要失败的。最终，胜者将在没有我们任何帮助的情况下上台执政，我们应该尊重他们的主权。

[–]LtCmdrData
Because economies are not well integratedglobally. Same currency requires economic integration to work. Differentcurrencies and floating exchange rates between them allow different economicregions work together without hurting each other.
The US works as currency region because theeconomy is integrated. Labor mobility, capital mobility, price and wageflexibility across the region, automatic fiscal transfer mechanisms betweenstates, similar business cycles.
EU is struggling as currency area becauseit lacks in every other area except capital mobility.
Optimum currency area

因为全球经济一体化程度不高。同样的货币需要经济一体化才能发挥作用。不同的货币和浮动汇率使得不同的经济区域能够在不损害彼此利益的情况下合作。
美国之所以成为货币区，是因为其经济是一体化的。劳动力流动，资本流动，价格和工资的灵活性，国家之间的自动财政转移机制，类似的商业周期。
欧盟作为货币区正在苦苦挣扎，因为除了资本流动，它在其他所有领域都缺乏竞争力。
最优货币区

[–]AdonisGaming93
If the whole globe used a single currency,currency manipulation would be eradicated. I understand there are differingopinions, but since most of us run on fiat currency anyway, and many oppose anyand all manipulation and artificial management of currency value. Wouldn'tthose people be in favour of a global currency?

如果全球使用单一货币，货币操纵将被根除。我理解存在不同意见，但因为我们大多数人无论如何都使用法定货币，许多人反对操纵和人为管理货币价值。这些人难道不会支持一种全球货币吗？

[–]Ephemerror
Well who controls the production of thecurrency?

那么谁来控制货币的发行呢？

[–]AdonisGaming93
A world assembly would come together Isuppose. The idea I guess would be the elimination of manipulation. Instead ofconstantly inflating prices it would be held constant and we would stopconstantly expanding the money supply.
Edit: obviously this would have manyissues, but I am always curious about a future where this might be possible.

我想会有一个世界性的大会。我想这个想法就是消除操纵。我们将保持物价稳定，而不是不断推高物价，我们将停止不断扩大货币供应。
PS：很明显，这会遇到很多问题，但我总是对未来充满好奇，觉得这是可能的。

[–]Vladimus44
The idea I guess would be the eliminationof manipulation. Instead of constantly inflating prices it would be heldconstant and we would stop constantly expanding the money supply.
We used to have that. Didn't even need thecouncil part. Its called Gold.

我想这个想法就是消除操纵。我们将保持物价稳定，而不是不断推高物价，我们将停止不断扩大货币供应。
我们曾经有过（世界货币）。甚至不需要议会的部分。它被称为黄金。

[–]ric2b
The gold supply has never been constant orpredictable in the history of mankind. It can't be made digital either, atleast not without enabling fractional reserves.
Maybe if someone invented a sort of digitalgold, but with a predictable and verifiable supply... Nah, that's impossible.

在人类历史上，黄金的供应从来就不是恒定的或可预测的。它也不能数字化，至少在不启用部分准备金的情况下不能。
也许，如果有人发明了一种数字黄金，但其供应量是可以预测和核实的……不，那是不可能的。

[–]CarolineTurpentine
Trump will leave but Trumpism will bearound for another 50 years. Reagan’s been gone for decades and politicians arestill trying to force Reaganomics upon you every few years. Look at how muchmore brazen the GOP as a whole has become, how blatantly they break the lawbecause they know they can get away with it. 5 years ago these people would nothave behaved this way but since a good chunk of the voting population approvesof them I don’t see them stopping altogether after Trump leaves.

特朗普将离开，但特朗普主义还将存在50年。里根已经去世几十年了，政客们仍然试图每隔几年就把里根经济政策强加给你。看看共和党作为一个整体变得多么无耻，他们多么明目张胆地违法，因为他们知道自己可以逍遥法外。5年前，这些人不会这样做，但由于相当一部分选民支持他们，我认为特朗普离开后，他们不会完全停止。

[–]steefen7
You're getting dramatic. Trumpism will notbe around for 50 years. Reaganism wasn't even around for 50 years before itcame crashing down during this presidency. You might argue that Trump's taxcuts count as Reaganism, but tariffs most definitely are not.

你太戏剧性了。特朗普主义将不会存在50年。里根主义甚至在50年之后才在总统任期内瓦解。你可能会说，特朗普的减税政策算是里根主义，但关税肯定不是。

[–]caitengsta
Honestly Trump doesn't even really deservehis own ism. These tariffs aren't as much as a policy as they are punishment,whether they are deserved or not. Reagan redefined our economic system and theyare still more on the Reagan side than not.

老实说，特朗普甚至不应该受到自己的歧视。这些关税与其说是一项政策，不如说是一种惩罚，不管它们是否应得。里根重新定义了我们的经济体系，他们更多地站在里根一边。

[–]StalinsBFF
If you think trump isn’t great for theeconomy you’re lying to yourself.

如果你认为特朗普对经济不好，那你就是在欺骗自己。

[–]catfarts99
If you are a billionaire in Russia orChina, your number 1 priority is to get your wealth out of Russia or China. Sogood luck.

如果你是俄罗斯或中国的亿万富翁，你的首要任务是把你的财富从俄罗斯或中国转移出去。所以祝你好运。

[–]AsianSensation1087
If you're that rich in those countries thenit means you know people in the top echelons of government. You're pretty safebut yeah, take enough money out just in case.

如果你在这些国家那么富有，那就意味着你认识政府最高层的人。你很安全，但带足够的钱出来以防万一。

[–]westsidefashionist
this person is just making up shit. Are youRussian or Chinese? Do you speak either of these languages? What’s the lastembassy you’ve been to? I’m suspecting you don’t even have a passport with suchethnocentric and ignorant comments.

这个人只是在胡编乱造。你是俄国人还是中国人？你会说这两种语言中的任何一种吗？你最近去过哪个大使馆？我怀疑你甚至连一本护照都没有，上面写着这么多种族中心主义和无知的评论。

[–]Haxonek
I’ve heard a lot of people say this wouldbe bad for the US, but is that really true? I guess there might be less cheaploans for people to buy but otherwise how would this be bad for the US, or isit even bad? The article doesn’t really touch on that

我听很多人说这会对美国不利，但这是真的吗？我想，人们购买的低息贷款可能会减少，但如果不是这样，这对美国有什么坏处呢？这篇文章并没有涉及到这一点

[–]westsidefashionist
It weakens value of the USD compared to thenew currencies taking its place. What is bizarre is why these countries havenot been using their own currencies in the first place.

它削弱了美元相对于新货币的价值。奇怪的是这些国家为什么一开始就不使用自己的货币。

[–]drkennypowermd78
US-China trade deficit is driven in largepart by Chinese portfolio demand for safe assets. Investing with the Kremlin isno better than investing with Beijing.

美中贸易逆差在很大程度上是由中国对安全资产的投资组合需求推动的。对克里姆林宫投资不比对北京投资好多少。

[–]ghost1034
That's gonna be hard since several majorintranational institutions chose to use the USD as their reserve currency, mostnotably being OPEC. Knowing Saudi Arabia's strong ties to the US I don't thinkthey'll stop pricing oil against the dollar.

这将是困难的，因为几个主要的国家机构选择使用美元作为他们的储备货币，最明显的是欧佩克。鉴于沙特与美国的密切关系，我认为他们不会停止油价对美元的定价。

[–]NineteenEighty
I think many people forget that the reasonthe dollar is so powerful is because you need it more than it needs you. If itwas so easy to replace a fiat currency like the USD it would’ve been donedecades ago. China and Russia both lack the institutional strength, stabilityand transparency to develop a viable alternative. All this is going to do ispotentially increase their transaction costs and make their systems moreinefficient and cumbersome.

我想很多人都忘记了，美元之所以如此强大，是因为你需要它，而不是它需要你。如果像美元这样的法定货币如此容易被取代，那么几十年前就可以做到。中国和俄罗斯都缺乏体制力量、稳定性和透明度，无法找到可行的替代方案。所有这一切都有可能增加他们的交易成本，使他们的系统更低效、更麻烦。

[–]DarkGamer
If the Trump administration's behaviorleads to other nations using a different fiat currency, there will be lastinglong term overwhelmingly negative effects for the US.

如果特朗普政府的行为导致其他国家使用不同的法定货币，将对美国产生长期的、压倒性的负面影响。

[–]oavaldezi
That'll be interesting and inefficient: therouble dependent on commodity export prices vis-à-vis the yuan, dued topromote exports.

这将是有趣而低效的：卢布依赖于大宗商品出口价格，而人民币，则为了促进出口而贬值。