中国经济会这么一直发展下去吗？ [美国媒体]

Can anything hold back China’s economy?
By Lawrence H.Summers December 3 at 7:10 PM

中国经济会这么一直发展下去吗？



Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping reachedan agreement over the weekend at the Group of 20 meeting in Argentinaon a framework for trade dialogue that will delay the imposition of new U.S.tariffs. While surely better than the alternative, this step does not addressany of the fundamental tensions in the economic relationship between the UnitedStates and China.

本周末（11月31日）,阿根廷举行的20国集团(G20)会议上，中美两国就贸易商谈话达成框架协议，该框架协议将推迟美国新关税的实施。虽然该协议的达成比起其他备选方案强了许多，但这并不能根本解决两国间紧张的经贸关系。

Few observers doubt that China needs tomake significant changes in areas such as intellectual property, the rights offoreign investors and subsidies to state-owned companies if it is to meetinternational norms. Antipathy toward Chinese economic practices is hardlyconfined to Trump. Recent months have witnessed attacks on the existingeconomic relationship from members of previous U.S. administrations, notedChina experts and the American business community. Indeed, it can be fairlysaid there are no China accommodationists left in Washington. When foreigngovernments get past their frustrations with the Trump administration, theyacknowledge that they, too, are frustrated with Chinese commercial practices.

观察家们几乎可以肯定，如果中国若遵守国际规则，就需要在知识产权、国外投资者权益以及对国有企业补贴等领域做出重大改革。对中国经济的做法产生反感的并不仅限于特朗普。最近几个月来，一些前美国政府人士对现有的经济关系也进行了指责。美国政府，一些中国专家和美国商界人士都注意到这一点。事实上，可以公平地说，对于中国，华盛顿已没有姑息主义人士。而且其他国家对特朗普表达不满的同时，他们也承认，他们对中国在商贸上的做法也感到失望。

Yet it is also easy to sympathize withChinese leaders who insist that China’s political system is for it to choose,and that economic negotiations should focus on the pragmatic identification ofwin-win opportunities, rather than on questions of ideology. At the same time,it is hard to see how anyone with a modicum of historical knowledge could failto be concerned by a combination of increased domestic repression, centralization ofpower in one man, rapidly increased military spendingand rhetoric about enlarging China’s role in the world.

当然，我们也很容易理解中国的引领者们，他们坚持认为中国的政治体制是中国的选择，经济谈判应该侧重于务实，追寻双赢机会，而不是在意识形态上。与此同时，我们很难想象，一个历史知识贫乏的人，居然不去关心国内暴力加剧、个人集权、军费迅速增长、以及中国在世界话语权扩大的问题。

The United States requires a viablestrategy for addressing its legitimate grievances. Unfortunately, neither ragenor proclamation constitutes such a strategy. A viable approach would involvefeasible objectives clearly conveyed and supported by carrots and sticks, alongwith a willingness to define and accept success.

美国需要一个解决其不合理的可行战略。不幸的是，愤怒或是宣泄都无法达成这种战略。可行的办法是手握大棒胡萝卜明确传达可行目标，定义令人满意的界限。

At the heart of the problem in defining aneconomic strategy toward China is the following awkward fact: Suppose China hadbeen fully compliant with every trade and investment rule and had been as opento the world as the most open countries at its income level. China might havegrown faster because it reformed more rapidly, or it might have grown more slowlybecause of reduced subsidies or more foreign competition. But it is highlyunlikely that its growth rate would have been altered by asmuch as 1 percent.

在确定对中国的经济战略时，问题核心是以下尴尬事实，即使中国完全遵守了所有贸易投资规则，收入水平与其他最开放国家一样。中国的增长速度可能会更快，因为它改革速度也会加快，或许因减少补贴以及外国竞争加剧，中国的增长速度可能变缓。但它增长率的改变，哪怕1%都不太可能。

Equally, while some U.S. companies mightearn more profits operating in China, and some job displacement in U.S.manufacturing because of Chinese state subsidies may have occurred, it cannotbe argued seriously that unfair Chinese trade practices have affected U.S. growthby even0.1 percent a year.

同样，当一些驻扎在中国的美国公司认为会获得更多利润时，在美国本土的公司将会出现工作岗位转移的情形。由于中国采取国家补贴政策，这种情况可能已发生在制造业，但这并不能说中国的不公平贸易行为影响了美国0.1年增长率。

This is not to say that China is not athreat to the international order. It is a seismic event for the United Statesto be overtaken after a century as the world’s largest economy. If, as is plausible thoughfar from certain, the United States loses its lead over the next decade ininformation technology, artificial intelligence and biotech, the trauma will bemagnified.

这里没有说中国没有对国际秩序产生了威胁。上世纪，美国成为世界最大经济体，这绝对是一件轰动事件。但如果美国在信息技术、人工智能和生物技术方面失去领先地位，尽管这远无法确定，挫折将接连而至。

Can the United States imagine a viableglobal economic system in 2050 in which its economy is half the size of theworld’s largest? Could a political leader acknowledge that reality in a waythat permits negotiation over what such a world would look like? While it mightbe unacceptable to the United States to be so greatly surpassed in economicscale, does it have the means to stop it? Can China be held down withoutinviting conflict?

美国能想象到2050年有一个可行的全球经济体系吗？在这个体系中，美国能否占世界上最大的经济体的一半？一位政治领导人能否以承认这种现实为基础而进行谈判？虽然美国经济规模如此之大，这种可能依然是美国无法接受的，但美国能否有一种能阻止中国经济的方法么？中国能否在不引起冲突的情况下去解决么？

These are hard questions without obviousanswers. But that is no excuse for ignoring them and focusing only on short-runfrustrations. China appears to be willing to accommodate the United States onspecific trade issues as long as the United States accepts its right toflourish and grow, knowing that sheer weight of numbers will make it the clearworld’s largest economy before long.

这些都是很难回答，且没有明确答案的问题。但这并不能成为忽视他们、只专注双方产生摩擦的借口。中国似乎愿意在特定贸易问题上进行妥协，前提是美国接受其繁荣发展的权利，因为中国知道，其巨大的体量将很快使自己成为世界上最大的经济体。

That is a deal the United States shouldtake while it can. It can bluster but it cannot, in an open world, suppress theChinese economy. Trying to do so risks strengthening the most anti-Americanelements in Beijing.

美国应尽力择机出台一项协议。这虽可以去吓唬人，但在一个开放世界里，用以压制中国经济是不可能的。试图去这样做反而会壮大北京的反美势力。

Trump, for all his failings, has China’sattention on economic issues in a way that eluded his predecessors. Thequestion is whether he will be able to use his leverage to accomplish somethingimportant. That will depend on his ability to convince the Chinese that theUnited States is capable of taking yes for an answer, and on his willingness togo beyond small-bore commercialism. We can hope, but we should not hold ourbreath.

尽管特朗普有诸多缺陷，但注重经济的中国，是他的前任们所未曾遇到的问题。问题是他是否能够利用其影响力来完成一些重要的事情。这将取决于他是否有能力让中国相信美国有能力接受“是”的答案，以及他是否有超越狭隘商业主义的意愿。我们可以寄以希望，但我们不应屏住呼吸。

GjD
If you believe in democracy and "oneperson one vote", isn't it reasonable that China with a population of1.417 BILLION people should have more control over the world economy than theUS with its 327.6 MILLION people?

你如果相信“一人一票”的民主，那么拥有14.17亿人口的中国，就应该比拥有3.276亿人口的美国更好地控制世界经济，这难道不合理吗？

EconProf59
I am not sure exactly what point thisarticle is trying to make--that America must do whatever it can to preservebeing #1 because our world would end if we weren't? How do the other roughly 190 some-odd countriesmanage to make it through life? TheBritish empire lasted a lot longer and even with the mucking up of Brexit now,most of the UK appears to be functioning.

我不知道这篇文章到底想说些什么？美国必须尽一切努力保持美国第一？否则我们要是不这么做，我们世界就完蛋了？那其他的190多个国家是怎么撑过来的？英国寿命长吧，即使现在英国脱欧搞砸了，英国大部分地区似乎都还正常运转着呢。

M.Collins
We haven't been #1 in a lot of areas whosemetrics might matter more toward quality of life for some time now and evenwith GDP, it is probably best to use real GDP per capita. It is less that $9000for China in 2017 vs almost almost $60,000 in the US.
It would be good to hear an economicsprofessors argument for why an exchange rate based dollar GDP measure ratherthan a PPP measure is better for gauging the quality of life in China versusthat in the United States.

我们在某些领域还没有达到第一，就指目前，除GDP,还有那个指标对生活质量更重要,用人均GDP可能是最好的办法。2017年，中国不到9000美元，而美国则接近6万美元。如果能听到一位经济学教授去解释，为什么以汇率为基础的美元GDP比PPP指标更适合衡量中国生活质量，而不是衡量美国生活质量，那就太好了。

ZEKEZEKE
"it cannot be argued seriously thatunfair Chinese trade practices have affected U.S. growth by even 0.1 percent ayear."
Seriously?? Stealing $2-3trillion in IPdoes nothing to undermine US growth? If nothing else, there's probably an extra$1trillion in Federal deficit just due to China's IP theft. And that is beforetrade barriers to enter Chinese markets, currency manipulation, etc.

“不好说中国不公平贸易行为是否影响了美国0.1年增长率”
当真？？窃取2-3万亿美元的知识产权，难道不会损害美国经济增长？其他不说，仅中国窃取的知识产权，联邦赤字可能会额外增加1万亿美元。这还是进入中国市场，操纵货币产生贸易壁垒之前。

Eric Wang
No hope there, sir. He is only good at the art of steal, not theart of the deal. Someone wrote that bookfor him.

先生，没希望的，他只擅长偷盗艺术，而不是交易的艺术。有人还给他写了一本书。

newsoapmedia
"It can bluster but it cannot, in anopen world, suppress the Chinese economy"?
That is a bold, unsupported assertion.
It depends entirely on economic conditionsin China, which are of course basically opaque. If the US prohibited trade withChina it is likely China's delicate economy could collapse. The debt in Chinarequires growth. Without growth it would slide into a sinkhole to... China.China's elite is inexperienced and Chinese investors and consumers are muchmore prone to panic than those in the average stable capitalist country. Itcould be a real mess. Hopefully Xi knows Trump is crazy enough to do it.

“可以去吓唬人，但在一个开放世界里，压制中国经济是不可能的”
这是种莽撞且毫无根据的断言
这完全取决于中国的经济状况，当然这基本上是不透明的。如果美国禁止对华贸易，中国脆弱的经济很可能会崩溃。中国债务需要增长。如果没有增长，它就会坠入深渊.中国的精英阶层缺乏经验，中国投资与消费者比一般稳定的资本主义国家更容易陷入恐慌，步入混乱。应该让习知道疯狂的特朗普足可以做到这一点。

CADCAM
China needs to stop stealing Americantechnology; it is really bad what they are doing--go see the latest 301 reportand the report from DIUx. They are alsoinfiltrating our research universities, who are large beneficiaries of UStaxpayer R&D dollars. Something needs to be done to shut down thetechnology pipeline to China.

中国必须停止窃取美国技术；他们做的事儿真令人恶心，看看近期的301与DIUX报告（注：DIUX 美国国防创新实验小组）。同时还在渗透我们研究型大学机构，他们是我们纳税人的最大受益者。做点什么阻止输出中国的技术渠道吧

Neil Nelson
Well right or not, it's China and not muchwe will be able to do about it.

对还是错，面对中国，我们无能为力。

TFCFM
???
What is China? (I don't understand what you're trying tosay.)

（楼上）什么中国，我怎么不明白你在说啥？

Neil Nelson
China is nation with borders, a military toprotect its borders and a police power to enforce its government's demands.There is not much we are going to say or do that will change that.

（回楼上）中国有边界，有保护边境的军队，有听命政府的警察。我们没有什么要说的，也没有什么可以改变的。

Saving grace
Above all else stop Chinese, Russian, andSaudi Arabian government financial investment in private U.S. companies.

首先要禁止中国、俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯政府投资美国企业。

Neil Nelson
There are some trade and economic issues on which we can work withallies to affect China, and there are others we will not likely be able to domuch about. What we can do now is work with allies and others with an interestin China trade and international behavior issues and present China with aunited front toward modifying those issues. And even though China has a verylarge population, the rest of the world's population and economic might isstill larger. For example, India, whose population is close to China's willlikely side with our united front. The US going alone is pointless.

在一些贸易和经济问题上，我们可以联合盟国一起影响中国，还有一些挺难办的事。我们可以联合与中国贸易或国际问题有兴趣的盟友合作，然后一起向中国提问题。尽管中国人口众多，但世界其他国家人口和经济实力总和也不小。比如，把人口接近中国的印度拉到我们这一边。美国单打独斗是毫无意义的。

CADCAM
Yes, they can invest...but they arestealing.

是的，他们不仅投资还偷…

For a change
Short answer.
No you cannot hold back the ( developmentof ) China's economy.
China is bigger than the U S , their peopleare harder workers than those in the US, they save their money more than thosein the US.
They do not spend more money than the nextfive countries on weapons of destruction and call it "defense"
They do not have the drug problems thatcome along with too much money, the ever present chase for the next"high"brought by boredom.
They do not have the crime problems,or of police shootings like the US does.
They do not spend huge amounts of money onmilitary bases all over the world, like the US does.
There are a number of"uncomfortable" reasons why you will not be able to hold them back,but you will try.

你无法阻止中国经济发展
中国比美国（人口）多，比美国人工作更努力，比美国人更节俭。
他们在杀人武器上的花费绝不会超过排名前五国家费用总和，他们只用于“防御”
他们没有因富有而带来毒品问题，他们并没有无聊的去追求“第一”
他们没有犯罪问题，更没有像美国警察那样的枪击问题
他们不会像美国那样海量花钱维护满世界的军事基地
中国有很多让人“不舒服”的问题，为何要去阻止，当然你可以去试试。

mmcind
And most of those hundreds of millions ofChinese also have zero freedoms. Yes, wehave problems, but if we stop electing morons to political office we can solvethem.

（楼上）但大多数中国人是没有自由的。是的，我们有问题，当然若是我们不去选个白痴上台，这些问题我们就能解决。

thesurvivor
The open secret that nobody wants to admitopenly is that US is no match against China even with a level playing field.

大家都不原承认的一个公开秘密是，即使在公平的竞争环境下，美国也不是中国对手。
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