难道中国人不知道自己面对的是川普和美国吗？他们是否完全低估了对手？ [美国媒体]

Do the Chinese not know they are up against Donald Trump and the United States of America? Do they completely understimate their opponent?

难道中国人不知道自己面对的是川普和美国吗？他们是否完全低估了对手？



David Sieracki, Director of InformationSecurity (1998-present)
Answered 13h ago
The Chinese know exactly who they are upagainst. It is Donald Trump, but it is NOT the United States of America. He hasvery little domestic support for the approach he is taking to the tradeimbalance with China. His own party is 100% opposed to tariffs. The GOP donorclass is 100% opposed to tariffs. The American farmer is 100% opposed totariffs. The American public at large is mostly against the trade war, and thatwill get worse for Trump as time goes by and prices at WalMart start to climb.His own base will turn on him eventually. Time is not on his side.
Oddly enough, progressives (notablyincluding Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama) are in favor of tariffs on ameasured scale as an encouragement to the Chinese to open their markets toAmerican products, but without the public taunting and insults that are causingloss of face for the Chinese leadership. The one thing you never, never, NEVERdo in negotiations with China is to embarrass them publicly. Any negotiationconducted on that basis will backfire spectacularly, and the Chinese people arecapable of enduring tremendous hardship to prove the point. Hardships that theaverage American can hardly even conceive of, much less endure.
Furthermore, the Chinese can, and have,manipulated our Toddler-In-Chief with little or no effort. They flatter him,make empty promises, and grant his daughter trademarks and he responds withconcessions. It’s literally child’s play. His G20 Twitter “tremendous deal”fiasco proves this. The Chinese are fully aware that Trump is under tremendouspressure from the GOP and their backers to end the tariffs, so they will simplywait it out.

中国人完全知道自己面对的是什么。是川普，但不是美国。美国国内对他所采取的贸易政策几乎是不支持的。他自己的政党100%反对关税。共和党的金主是100%反对关税的。美国农民也完全反对关税。美国公众大体上也是反对贸易战的，随着时间的推移，沃尔玛商品价格的上涨，川普面临的处境还会更加糟糕。他自己的选民会最终站起来反对他。时间不站在他那一边。
奇怪的是，进步派（最着名的包括希拉里克林顿和奥巴马）却赞成对中国征收一定的关税，以鼓励中国开放市场欢迎美国产品，但是不赞成公开嘲弄和侮辱，因为那样会让中国领导人没面子。在和中国人谈判时，最不应该做的事情就是公开羞辱他们。这样做只会适得其反，而中国人的忍耐力是非常强大的，可以克服严峻的困难来以牙还牙。这样的困难甚至是普通美国人无法想象的，更不要说让美国人去忍受这样的困难了。
此外，中国人可以也已经轻易操弄了我们那幼稚的总统。他们奉承他，作出空洞的承诺，给她女儿商标，然后他就妥协了。这简直是小孩子游戏。中国完全清楚川普面临共和党和选民的巨大压力，要求川普结束关税，所以中国在耐心等待。

Rosa Lichtenstein
Answered 14h ago
The US has been in long-term decline sincethe 1970s (and probably even earlier). After WW2 the US produced half theworld’s wealth; that has now shrunk to under a quarter, and falling. It wastes$700 billion per year on useless weapons of death while its infrastructure athome crumbles and its manufacturing base steadily declines. TheSex-Pest-in-Chief represents the beginning of the death throes of US Imperialdomination of the planet. Its military is still capable of doing serious damageto the planet and its inhabitants, but the world can now see that the US is the#1 enemy of democracy and freedom on earth (with the UK, Russia, China, Iran, SArabia, and N Korea on the subs bench), guilty of killing civilians on anindustrial scale since WW2 that would give ISIS and Al Qaeda a collective wetdream if they could emulate even 10% of that figure.
https://www.quora.com/Why-does-s...
As the tinpot rulers of China and the USAsquare up to one another, one thing we can be certain of: ordinary people willonce again be royally screwed.

美国从70年代就开始衰弱了（甚至更早之前）。二战后，美国产生了世界一半的财富；现在萎缩到不到四分之一，还在继续减少。每年浪费7000亿美元在无用的死亡武器上，而国内的基建破旧不堪，制造业基础渐渐衰弱。川普代表了美国帝国终结的开始。美国军队还能对地球及其居民造成严重破坏，但是现在世界已经看清美国才是地球上自由和民主的头号敌人（当然还包括英国，俄罗斯，中国，伊朗，沙特和朝鲜），二战后杀死了无数平民，让ISIS和基地组织望尘莫及。随着中美对抗，可以肯定的是普通人又要被糟蹋了。

Brian Glen, Republican in California whoReads constantly
Updated 13h ago
They have bigger worries now
Nonstate companies in China have lost atleast $992 billion in market value since mid-June, or about $32 million forevery minute of trading according to data compiled by Bloomberg and WisdomTreeInvestments Inc
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14...
This is an important development. Pushbackagainst China is global. Not sure Beijing gets it yet EU has agreed on rulesfor a system to coordinate scrutiny of foreign investments, notably from China,to end what a negotiator called “European naivety https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1NP1...
The emperor's clothes are long gone. Nobodyon Earth is going to dance to China's tune any longer. In his arrogance, Xi hastotally overplayed there hand and ruined Deng Xiaoping's brilliant strategy of"hiding our capabilities."

中国人现在有更大的担忧。自6月中旬以来，中国的非国有企业至少损失了9920亿美元市值，或者每分钟3200万美元，这是根据彭博社和智树投资公司的数据得出的。这很重要。针对中国的阻力是全球性的。不知道北京有没有意识到，但是欧洲已经同意对外国投资进行协调审查，尤其是来自中国的投资。
国王的新衣早就消失。没有人会继续随中国起舞。现在的中国过度张扬，已经毁掉了邓小平那聪明的“韬光养晦”战略。

EU Giving China A Bully Beat Down
China’s fake GDP Numbers
https://www.investors.com/politi...
Chinas Ghost Cities
China Hustle
Global companies leaving china
Right now they've got plans to buildhousing for another 3.4 billion people — Chinese Cities’ Expansion Plans CouldHouse 3.4 Billion People. But wait, China's population is how big again? Youcan see, there's no fundamental real demand underlying this spending spree,
At the end of WW II the United Statesstarted allowing nations trying to rebuild their economies after the war tomake unbalanced trade deals so those nations had an advantage. It was felt thatthe American economy was strong enough to allow these trade deals and wouldstill be able to compete.

欧盟给了中国沉重一击。中国虚假的GDP数字。中国鬼城。全球企业离开中国。现在他们计划给另外34亿人建造房屋——中国城市扩张计划可以容纳34亿人。但是中国人口现在是多少啊。你会发现根本就没有这么大的需求来支撑这样的建设浪潮。
二战结束后，美国为了让其他国家重建经济，制定了不平衡的贸易协议，使得这些国家享有优势。当时认为美国经济足够强大，所以即使制定这样的协议也不会损害到美国，美国依然有竞争力。

Over the past seven decades our tradingpartners, both friend and foe alike, have simply come to expect the UnitedStates to allow these unbalanced trade rules to continue. But WW II has beenover for more than seventy years now. Donald Trump has decided it is time theUnited States be allowed a level playing field, and American companies andworkers should not be expected to allow the unbalanced rules to continue. Therest of the world has recovered from WW II, it is time they stopped takingadvantage of the United States.

70年过去了，我们的这些贸易伙伴（包括朋友和敌人）都希望美国继续维持这样的不平衡贸易规则。但是二战已经过去70年了啊。所以川普认为是时候让美国拥有公平的竞争环境了，不能继续让美国企业和工人面对这样不利的局面。世界其他国家都已经从二战中恢复过来了，所以他们不应该继续占美国便宜了。

Clifford Nelson
14h ago · 7 upvotes
If I replaced China with Trump in yourmonologue it would be more accurate. Where are you getting your news? In anycase nobody was dancing to China’s tune anyway, it was the US’s tune, and it isTrump is trying to ensure that nobody plays to the US’s tune anymore.

如果用川普字眼替代中国字眼，我觉得更准确。你的这些消息都是从哪里获取的？没有人在随中国起舞，大家都在随美国起舞，是川普导致大家都不想随美国起舞了。

Greg Easter, P.h.D. Science, University ofCalifornia, Los Angeles (1989)
Answered 13h ago
This question is a perfect example of thearrogance and ignorance of the American mindset today. The United States is ona collision course with total irreversible bankruptcy, while China and Europeare what has been propping up America for decades. Within 7 years, the UnitedStates will no longer be able to meet its required mandatory spending, whichincludes the interest-only on the loans already taken. Like every other nationin such a situation in history, the solution will either be to sell off majorproperty holdings and/or to start printing money like crazy causingtriple-digit inflation. Your end is near, which is the main reason why othernations have just been standing around without doing much about Americanimperialism. You are about to collapse under the weight of your own policies.Meanwhile next year’s budget calls for nearly a 10% increase in militaryspending. You can have all the bombs and jets you want, it won’t put bread onthe tables of your citizens, who will turn into a giant bloodthirsty mob fromcoast to coast in civil unrest when that day comes… and you think China doesn’tknow this? Everyone knows this except Americans.

这个问题很好的说明了如今美国人傲慢无知的心态。美国正走向不可逆转的破产，是中国和欧洲在这几十年来支撑着美国。7年后，美国将无法满足自己的强制性支出。这样一来美国只能卖掉自己的主要财产或者疯狂印钞，引发三位数的通胀。你们的末日不远了，所以其他国家才对你们美帝国主义行为无动于衷，谁会跟将死之人计较呢。你们即将在自己政策重压之下崩溃。同时，美国明年的预算呼吁增加10%军费。你可以拥有你们想要的炸弹和飞机，但那不会给你们的公民带来面包，就等着他们揭竿而起吧。而你以为中国不清楚这一点？大家都知道，除了美国人自己。

Ken Ackerman
7h ago
Actually many Americans see the situationexactly as you do.
The Republicans are deliberately driving usdown, I just don’t know why.

实际上很多美国人也看到了这一点。共和党人故意搞垮美国，我不知道为什么。

Rachel Casale, studied at Johns HopkinsUniversity
Answered 4h ago
I would have to say that the Chinese knowexactly who they are up against. The problem appears to be that there areAmericans who overestimate Trump, rather than Chinese who underestimate him.China plans ahead, while Trump appears incapable of seeing the long termconsequences to his actions. If China wanted to, they could absolutely destroythe US just to spite Trump. Let's face it; he would try and do it to them if hehad a big enough temper tantrum to forget that he needs their money. Luckilyfor the US, Xi Jinping isn't as foolish as Trump. So now you want to know why Iclaim they could destroy the US, right? In my opinion, it would only take thepharmaceutical industry to bring us to our knees. Almost all generic drugs anda very high percentage of name brand drugs are made in either China or India.More than that though, they make the active ingredients that go into the drugsmade in the US. Since even a delay in shipping times could cause shortages, canyou even imagine what would happen if they simply stopped trading with us? Likeit or not, we live in a global economy, and our arrogance is going to hurt usmore than it hurts anyone else. While the US's infrastructure is outdated andfalling apart, China is creating cities of the future. While we push our kidsto be high school athletes, their kids are studying. While we are out buyingthings we don't need on credit, they are saving money. Trump is fighting abattle that is already lost. Maybe the answer should be to stop underestimatingChina.

我想说中国人完全知道自己面对的是什么东西。貌似是美国人高估了川普，而不是中国人低估了他。中国有长远规划，而川普无法看到自己行为会导致的长期后果。如果中国愿意的话，中国绝对可以摧毁美国来激怒川普。而如果川普忘记美国需要中国的钱财的话，他也会这么干。但美国是幸运的，因为中国不像川普那么蠢。我为什么说中国可以摧毁美国，因为在我看来，一个制药产业就可以让我们臣服。我们几乎所有的非专利药以及很大部分的品牌药都是中国制造或者印度制造。不仅如此，美国药品的有效成分也是他们生产的。即使是运输延误也会引发药品短缺，所以想象一下，如果中国停止和我们贸易，那会产生什么样的后果。不论你喜欢与否，我们都生活在一个全球经济里，我们的傲慢将对我们造成更大的伤害。美国的基建变得过时和破旧，而中国在建造未来都市。在我们让孩子成为中学运动员时，他们的孩子在学习。我们用信用卡乱花钱时，他们在存钱。川普正在打一场已经输掉的战争。或许我们才应该停止低估中国。

Albert Gambino, former Police officer
Answered Mon
I believe that your question shows theTrump mentality of the situation. In the early 60’s late 40’s and 50’, youmight of had a point, today, countries (all) have to be able to play well witheach other! No country has a total corner on the market in any area, with theexception of the oil producing nations. Made goods are produced jointly fromall over the world. To cut off your supply of X makes Y more expensive for yourpeople as well as making problems for the producing country. So both suffer!Trump has already eased his Trade War rhetoric , he has put his tariffs withChina, on hold, because he found out they carry a bigger stick than he does (soto speak) he also eased the restrictions against other countries that we dealwith, the farmers and people who thought it was a great idea, see in realitythat they cut their own throats! Trumps ways of looking at trade deficits,needs to be more realistic, he should listen to people with a lot moreexpertise in the areas than he has.
YOU CANNOT STAND ALONE IN THE WORLD , itwill not work, anymore, we ( the United States) are not the world producingnation that we once were, we need to learn to get along with other countries,as opposed to alienating them!

我认为这个问题正好说明了川普的心态。在以前你可以这么说，但是现在不行了。现在是全球化的时代，没有一个国家可以完全掌控某一领域，除了那些产油国。产品生产是全世界一起合作进行的。只要停止供应某个产品，另一个产品就会更贵，也会让生产国陷入困境。所以双输。川普已经放松了贸易战，暂停了和中国的关税战，因为他发现中国手上有更多筹码，他也缓和了和其他国家的贸易限制。川普的支持者现在发现这是自残行为。川普看待贸易赤字的方式应该更现实点，他应该听取更加专业人士的看法。
你无法孤独的站立在这个世界上，因为不再有用，我们美国已经不再是世界的生产国，我们需要学会与其他国家相处，而不是疏远他们！

Michael Chaplan, College English Teacher atNihon University, School of Law (1975-present)
Answered Nov 25
Thanks for the question, Simon.
The Chinese know more than you think. It isPresident Trump who has put our country in a bad position.
Remember that TPP that President Trump wasso proud to put in the trash? Well, that TPP was set up to punish China. WhenPresident Trump trashed the TPP, he was simply trashing one of the tools he couldhave used to punish China.
Then President Trump was complaining aboutChina stealing US intellectual property. But instead of acting on intellectualproperty, President Trump put tariffs on steel and aluminum…. which are noteven in the top 10 of Chinese exports to the US.
And the Chinese responded by deciding tobuy soy beans from Brazil instead of the US, which means that US soybeanfarmers are going broke.
Have the Chinese underestimated the US?
No. The US has gone into a trade war withChina after antagonizing all potential allies (of the US) and in an ignorantway. The US economy is already suffering from the response from China.

感谢这个问题。中国人知道的比你想象的来得多。是川普让我们国家陷入糟糕的境地。还记得川普总统骄傲的废除了TPP了吗？而这TPP是用来惩罚中国的。当他退出TPP时，就意味着川普放弃了这个可以用来惩罚中国的工具。
然后总统川普抱怨中国窃取美国知识产权。但是他没有在知识产权问题上采取行动，而是对钢和铝征收关税，而这些产品甚至排在中国对美出口前十名产品之外。
作为回应，中国决定从巴西进口大豆而不是从美国，意味着美国大豆农民要破产了。
中国低估美国了吗？没有。在对抗所有潜在盟友后，美国又无知地和中国开启了贸易战。美国经济已经在这次贸易战中受损。