这篇文章称台湾可能赢得和大陆的战争，你怎么看？ [美国媒体]

What do the Chinese think about this article that says it's possible Taiwan can win in a war against China?

这篇文章称台湾可能赢得和大陆的战争，你怎么看？



Roger Jiang, lives in China
Answered 18h ago
It is amazing that a serious publication like Foreign Policy could actually publish such garbage.
"Chinese commanders fear they may be forced into armed contest with an enemy that is better trained, better motivated, and better prepared for the rigors of warfare than troops the PLA could throw against them."
Seriously?

像《外交政策》这样严肃的刊物竟然也会发表这种垃圾文章。“中国指挥官担心被迫与训练，动机和战备都比自己强的台湾发生军事冲突。”
真的吗？

Better trained - Taiwanese army stopped training outdoor once the temperature hits 32 degree celcius. That is how "rigorous" the training is. Guess PLA just needs to pick a day when the temperature is above 32 degree to attack Taiwan.

更好的训练——台湾军队之外温度达到32度就停止户外训练。这就是台湾所谓的“严格”训练。看来解放军要选择温度高于32度的某一天来攻击台湾了。

Better motivated - Taiwanese army has such difficulty in recruiting new soldiers that it has to resort to sexy ads (Female soldiers making sexy posture). And the first thing that DPP president did after she took office was to drastically slash the pensions of the officer in Taiwanese military. I guess a huge reduction in pension does better motivate the officers…negatively.

更好的动机——台湾军队征兵困难，不得不借助色情广告来征兵（女兵做出性感的姿势）。而蔡英文上台后做的第一件事就是大幅砍掉台湾军官的退休金。看来大幅削减退休金可以更好的激励军官呢。

Lastly, does the auhtor have any idea how many Taiwanese retired generals are currently owning businesses in mainland China? And I have more than once run across Taiwanese youth who told me that if PLA attacks Taiwan, the first thing they will do is to find a way to surrender.

最后，这个作者知道有多少台湾退休将军目前在中国大陆拥有生意吗？而且不止一次有台湾年轻人对我说如果解放军攻打台湾，他们要做的第一件事就是想办法投降。

Better prepared - is the author talking about F-16C/D & Mirage 2000 against PLA’s J-10C or F-16V against J-20? Or is he talking about the Taiwanese army’s legacy tanks from 60’s that have only 105mm gun and 100mm armor against PLA’s 99A? Or the Taiwanese navy’s frigate from the 90’s vs. PLAN’s Type 055 destroyers that are equipped with dual-band ASEA radar, large VLS and long range anti-air and anti-ship missiles? Does the author know the Taiwanese army is still using WW II-era artillery? Most of Taiwanese military hardware is worse than what PLA has. The Apache Helicopter is only thing that has a slight edge over its PLA counterpart. But then Taiwan has only a few dozen of them but PLA has over 1,000 attack helicopters.

更好的战备——作者指的是F-16C/D和幻影2000对付解放军的J-10C或者F-16V对付J-20吗？还是说台湾60年代的旧坦克，只有105毫米口径和100毫米装甲对付解放军的99A？还是说台湾海军90年代的护卫舰对付解放军海军的055驱逐舰？作者知道台湾军队依然在使用二战时期的火炮吗？大部分的台湾军队硬件都比解放军的差。只有阿帕奇直升机有点优势。但是台湾只有几十架，解放军拥有1000多架攻击直升机。

Wei Jie Soh
16h ago · 3 upvotes including Roger Jiang
I laughed when the writer wrote that the typical PLA grunt comes from a poor province and even harder when he spoke about how the Nationalist Army would storm Fujian!
China has a population over 1370 million. Only 2 million are deemed fit enough to join the military. Are people really that stupid to think that the typical PLA soldier is a country bumpkin?
I wager that the typical PLA “grunt” has a university degree, an IQ of 120 and is able to do a couple dozen chip ups with one arm!

当作者写到解放军步兵一般来自贫穷省份，以及国民党军队将如何席卷福建时，我笑了。中国人口13.7亿，只有200万被认为适合加入军队。人们真的蠢到认为一般的解放军士兵都是乡巴佬吗？我打赌解放军士兵一般都有大学文凭，智商120，单手可以作出几十个引体向上。

Roger Jiang
16h ago · 1 upvote
Taiwanese soldiers werent given the nickname Strawberry Soldier for no reason… They were deemed as fragile as the strawberries by Taiwanese themselves.
The rule about stopping outdoor training when temperature hits 32 degree was implemented because a soldier died of heat stroke a while back. The parents of Taiwanese soldiers caused an uproar and a blame storm, forcing the Taiwan dept of defense to adopt such a rule.
Votes are more important in democracy than making real soldiers.

台湾士兵被称为“草莓军”不是没有原因的。台湾人认为他们就像草莓一样脆弱。
温度32度就停止室外训练是因为之前有个士兵因为中暑死亡。于是台湾士兵的家长们就开始抗议和谴责，迫使台湾国防部门采取了这个措施。在民主国家，选票比打造真正的军人更重要。

Li Jia Shen
17h ago
Even many Taiwanese think US/Japan will come to the rescue. As if it’s very easy to do so..

甚至很多台湾人认为美日会来帮忙。好像很容易似的。

Victor Christopher
Answered Wed
The degree of ignorance can reach ridiculous levels. According to the author, the PLA commander should be a fool. The biggest difference between the two sides is that China has a satellite for investigation. The PLA can understand every movement of the Taiwanese army. Does this battle still make sense? I don't think the author knows how to fight modern warfare. The first step in attacking Taiwan is to attack the airport, radar station, missile position and other important facilities (only 160km in the Taiwan Strait). In the second step, the fighters and warships clear the remaining targets. The third step, landing

真是太无知了。根据作者的说法，解放军指挥官就是个笨蛋。二者之间的最大差别是中国有侦查卫星。所以解放军可以了解到台湾军队的每一个举动。所以这场战役还有什么意义吗？我认为作者不知道怎么打现代战争。攻击台湾的第一步就是攻击机场，雷达站，导弹发射地以及其他重要设施（台湾海峡只有160公里）。第二步，战机和战舰清除剩余目标。第三步，登陆。

CHEN Dalun (陈达侖), Chinese national.
Answered Wed
I would love to regard it as a truth.
If China will lose a war against the ROC, then there remains no need for Japan, Vietnam, or any other country in Asia to be concerned by the “Chinese military expansion”, or whatever they like to call it.
It will be more ridiculous to say that China poses even the slightest threat to the US.
The cute, harmless People’s Republic of China just wants to be left along building railways and shipping goods around. It is just old Uncle Sam being paranoid.

我倒希望这是真的。如果中国无法打败中华民国，那么日本，越南和其他亚洲国家就没有必要担心中国的军事扩张。那么说中国会给美国造成威胁那就更加扯淡了。可爱无害的中国只想建设铁路将货物运输到全世界。只不过是美国在疑神疑鬼而已。

Charlie Li, Electrical engineer
Answered Wed
Umm… good?
It is now perfectly clear Taiwan is not being supported because it is a democracy anymore; it is being supported as a pawn against China.
If people in Taiwan are ok with being Ukraine 2.0, who am I to judge.
Regarding military strength, I agree. China is so weak, idk why the US is using China as the new Soviet.

显然现在其他国家不再因为台湾是民主的才支持台湾，而是把它用来对付中国的棋子，所以才支持台湾。如果台湾人想成为乌克兰2.0，那我有什么好说的。就军事而言，我同意。中国很弱，但我不知道为什么美国把中国当作新的苏联看待。

Joseph Wang, studied at Ph.D Astronomy UT Austin, Physics MIT
Answered Wed
I think the writer is clueless. It's obvious to everyone that without US help, Taiwan is finished.

我认为这作者毫无头绪。显然，没有美国帮助，台湾肯定完蛋。