中国对待污染问题上会影响经济发展吗 [美国媒体]

As China gets tough on pollution, will its economy suffer?

中国对待污染问题上会影响经济发展吗



The received wisdom was that green growth would be slower. So far, that hasn’t happened

人们普遍认为，绿色增长会放缓。到目前为止，这种情况还没有发生。

LEO YAO thought he had nothing to fear from the environment ministry. Before, when its inspectors visited his cutlery factory, he says, they generated “loud thunder, little rain”. After warning him to clean up, they would, at worst, impose a negligible fine. Not so this time. In August dozens of inspectors swarmed over his workshop in Tianjin, just east of Beijing, and ordered production to be halted. His doors remain shut today. If he wants to go on making knives and forks, he has been told that he must move to more modern facilities in a less populated area.Mr Yao’s company, which at its peak employed 80 people, is just one minor casualty in China’s sweeping campaign to reduce pollution. For years the government has vowed to go green, yet made little progress. It has flinched at reining in dirty industries, wary of the mass job losses that seemed likely to ensue. But in the past few months it has taken a harder line and pressed on with pollution controls, hitting coalminers, cement-makers, paper mills, chemical factories, textile firms and more.Tens of thousands of companies—mostly smaller ones, like Mr Yao’s—have been forced to close, according to Chen Xingdong, an economist with BNP Paribas. In the region around Beijing this winter, the government has ordered steel mills to run at half-capacity and aluminium-makers to cut output by nearly a third. Implementation, half-hearted in the past, has if anything been heavy-handed. In Hebei, a northern province, a ban on coal heating left thousands of residents shivering because the replacement, a switch to natural gas, was not yet ready.

姚贵文表示，她对环保部没有什么可害怕的了。此前，每次环保部的检查员来视察他的餐具工厂时，都是“雷声大雨点小”。在警告他要清理干净后，检察院最多给处以微不足道的罚金。但这一次不是这样了。今年8月，数十名检查员涌入其在天津（就在北京东边）的工厂，并勒令其停止生产。他的工厂到今天仍是大门紧闭。他被告知如果他想继续生产刀叉，就必须搬到人口较少的更现代化的工厂里。姚先生的公司效益最好时雇佣了80名员工，如今成了中国减少污染行动的一个牺牲品。多年来，政府一直承诺实现环保，然而见效甚微。由于担心随之而来大规模失业，政府在整治污染企业时总是畏首畏尾。但是过去几个月里，中国采取了更加强硬的态度，加强污染控制力度，打击了煤矿、水泥生产商、造纸厂、制药厂、纺织公司和其他一些企业。法国巴黎银行经济学家陈晓东表示，数以万计的公司——大多数是像姚先生的工厂那样的较小的企业——被迫关停。今年冬天，在北京周边地区，政府要求钢铁企业停产一半，铝生产商减产近三分之一。 在北方的河北省，禁止燃煤取暖的禁令使得成千上万的居民在寒冬中瑟瑟发抖，因为替代方案——改用天然气——尚未准备好。

For the wider economy, the question is how steep the cost will be. A sharp tightening of environmental rules in the world’s biggest polluter has the potential to be a shock, both to China and the global economy. Two worries are commonly heard: that it will drag down growth; and, at the same time, cause inflation as production cuts boost prices. Jiang Chao, an economist with Haitong Securities, a broker, says it could end up making for “classic stagflation”.So far, though, these worries are unfounded: growth has been solid and inflation subdued. A possible explanation is that the economic impact is lagging behind the pollution controls. Another is that, contrary to received wisdom, China may be able to raise its environmental standards without paying a high price.One thing is clear: China’s shift on pollution is real. True, some extreme measures are temporary, especially those aimed at keeping Beijing’s sky blue this winter.But many others will be lasting. As part of a “war on pollution” declared in 2014, China has detailed targets for cleaning up its air, water and soil. On January 1st it introduced an environmental-protection tax, replacing a patchwork of pollution fees. Last month it launched a market for trading carbon emissions, which, though scaled back from early plans, will be the world’s largest. Most crucially, the environment ministry, previously a political weakling, has clout at last—as Mr Yao’s cutlery business found to its chagrin. Besides fining companies, inspectors have disciplined some 18,000 officials for laxity over pollution.

对于更广泛的经济而言，问题在于成本会有多高。这个世界上最大的污染国大幅收紧环保法规可能对其自身和全球经济产生冲击。海通证券经纪人兼经济学家姜潮表示，这最终会导致“典型滞胀” 。不过，到目前为止这些担忧是没有根据的，因为经济增长稳定，通胀也得到抑制。一个可能的解释就是经济影响正落后于污染控制。另一个解释与公认的看法不同，即中国可能在不付出高昂代价的情况下提高环境标准。但有件事是清楚的：中国在污染问题上的转变是真实的。 当然，一些极端措施只是暂时的，尤其是今冬那些旨在让北京的天空保持湛蓝的措施。但是许多其他措施将会持续。作为2014年发起的“污染攻坚战”的一部分，中国已经有净化空气，水和土壤的详细目标。今年1月1日，中国政府推出了环保税以取代拼凑而成的污染费。上个月，中国成立了碳排放交易市场，尽管与原先计划相比规模有所缩减，但它仍然将是世界最大的碳排放交易市场。最关键的是，先前在政治上处于弱势的环保部，如今终于有了影响力——因为姚先生的餐具生意让其气愤不已。除了给企业开具罚单外，检查员还处罚了近18000位在污染问题上松懈的官员。

Yet the biggest economic surprise of China’s environmental campaign so far is not that it has had an impact; it is how muted that impact has been. Yes, industrial production has recently been weaker than forecast, but it is still expanding at more than 6% year on year. And yes, some commodity prices have shot up, but this has had very little effect on general inflation.Three factors suggest that this benign trend may endure. First, despite the common assumption that industries such as steel or coal are vast, they in fact account for a small, shrinking share of the Chinese economy. Minsheng Securities, a broker, calculates that the full complement of industries affected by the pollution measures adds up to just 7% of total national investment. China has reached a stage of development where manufacturing is fading in importance. Nearly 4m people may lose jobs as a result of cuts in industrial capacity, but strong demand for labour in the services sector, from restaurants to health care, is cushioning that blow.Second, price increases have been concentrated and show little sign of spreading widely. Prices of coal and steel, the first to heat up, are already leveling off, making the increases seem big one-off changes rather than the start of inflationary spirals. For the economy as a whole, it amounts to a redistribution of resources. Companies that use commodities as inputs face higher costs. But producers benefit. And since metals and mining companies are heavily indebted, the rebound in revenues is helping to fortify their balance-sheets and, in the process, easing Chinese financial risks.

然而，到目前为止，中国环保运动中在经济上最大的意外不是它产生了一定的影响；它的影响相当微弱。的确，最近的工业生产一直低于预期，但是它仍然以每年超过6%的速度增长（它的年增长率仍然超过6%）。的确，某些大宗商品的价格飙升，但对一般通货膨胀的影响甚微。有三个因素表明，这种良性趋势会持续下去。首先，尽管人们普遍认为钢铁和煤炭等产业规模庞大。但事实上它们在中国经济中只占很小的份额，而且还在不断缩小。据券商民生证券统计，受到整治污染措施影响的全部行业仅占全国总投资的7%。中国已经进入了这样一个发展阶段：制造业的重要性正在逐渐丧失。削减工业产能可能会导致仅400万人失业，但是从餐厅到保健的服务业对劳动力的巨大需求缓解了这一冲击。其次，价格上涨集中，且没有广泛扩散的迹象。首先上涨的煤炭和钢铁价格如今已经趋于平稳，使得这次价格上涨看上去像是一次性的巨大变化，而不是通胀螺旋式上升的开端。对于整体经济而言，这相当于一次资源的再分配。使用大宗商品作为原材料的公司面临着更高的成本。但是生产者却因此而受益。由于金属和采矿企业负债累累，收益的提升有助于巩固其资产负债表，并且在此过程中，缓解了中国金融风险。

Lastly, green restrictions can themselves generate growth and jobs. China’s drive for cleaner energy sources has gained momentum. Estimates suggest it installed nearly 55 gigawatts of solar-power capacity in 2017, more than the existing capacity of any other country at the start of the year. China accounts for about two-fifths of global production of electric cars. And in more established industries, companies feel pressure to upgrade. To stay in business, Mr Yao says he will move his cutlery factory to a new industrial park, where waste-disposal standards are higher.If the economic downside from China’s clean-up remains relatively mild, it prompts an obvious question: why did it take the government so long to get tough on pollution? One big reason is surely the uneven distribution of pain. Smokestack industries are based in a small number of provinces such as Shandong in the east and Shanxi in the north. So long as enforcement was in local hands, officials had little incentive to act. None wanted to throttle companies in their own backyard. But from a national perspective, the economic trade-offs of greener growth ought to be easier to stomach. China will both pay a price and reap dividends.

最后，绿色限制本身能带来经济增长和工作岗位。中国发展清洁能源的势头有所增强。据统计，2017年中国太阳能装机容量接近55千兆瓦，超过年初任何其他国家的现有装机量。中国电动汽车产量占全球总产量的五分之二。在更成熟的行业里，公司感受到了升级转型的压力。姚先生表示，为了保住生意，他将把餐具厂搬至一个新建的工业园区内，这儿的废物处理标准更高。如果中国治污导致的经济下行仍保持相对温和的态势，那就引出了一个明显的问题：为什么中国政府这么久才污染问题采取强硬态度？一个重要的原因当然是因为各地受污染影响的程度不同。大烟囱工业往往坐落在中国的东部的山东省和北方的陕西省等少数省份。只要还是由当地政府执法，那官员们就没有动力采取行动。谁都不想关闭自己的地盘的公司。但是从国家角度来看，绿色增长的经济权衡更容易被接受。中国在付出代价的同时也收获了红利。