未来5年，印度经济能达到中国经济现在的水平吗？ [美国媒体]

Will Indias economy be at the level Chinas is at now in the next 5 years?

未来5年，印度经济能达到中国经济现在的水平吗？



Martin Andrews, Asian analyst.
Answered Wed
Questions like these have been popping up on Quora at a very fast rate, to all the Indians who ask these questions the only reasonable conclusion I can come up with is that Indians seriously underestimate China and the Chinese people’s capabilities.

这样的问题在Quora上不断出现。
那些提出此类问题的印度人，你们严重低估中国了，严重低估中国人的能力了。

China had perfected all the correct fundamentals for development, they have built world class infrastructure with a record spending on infrastructure that is the highest in the world, but the problem is that India needs to spend far more on infrastructure and it is not, this will hinder India’s growth substantially, Indian policy makers don’t seem to understand this.

中国投入巨资，完善了世界一流的基础设施。印度必须在基础设施上投入巨资，然而印度并未这样做，这将严重阻碍印度的发展，印度决策者似乎没明白这点。

China gave quality education at a massive scale to its citizens, the result is that even the rural areas in China rank at the OECD average (PISA) and Shanghai which is the best in China absolutely smashed the rest of the world in education, India came last in the PISA rankings and it opted out, this shouldn’t be the response for a country which wants to be a global superpower, Indian skilled labour is also low quality which is a result of bad educational policies and low standards and this will hamper India in a future where the world is moving towards high skilled labour.

中国为公民提供素质教育。结果就是，即使农村地区的学生，在国际学生评估项目 (PISA)也 榜上有名，在教育方面，上海教育水平超过了其他国家。印度排名垫底。这不是一个希望成为全球大国的国家的样子。由于受教育程度不够，印度技术工人素质也很低，这将阻碍印度在未来世界中向高技术劳动力层次的转化。

Indians seem to be very proud of the fact that the 7.37% growth in GDP for 2018 is faster than China’s growth which is 6.9%, sure being proud is essential as well but one should also be pragmatic, what Indians don’t seem to quite comprehend is that since China’s GDP is much much larger than India’s it actually adds more value to its economy even though it grows “slower”.

印度2018年取得了7.37%的GDP增速，看到比中国6.9%的经济增速快，印度人的自豪感油然而生。对，值得骄傲，但人要务实点。印度人似乎不明白，即使中国经济增速“更慢”，考虑到中国GDP比印度高太多了，所以中国经济创造的价值更大。

Chinese GDP for 2017 is $12.25 trillion while the respective figure for India is $2.439 trillion the growth rate during this period for each economy was 6.9% and 6.7% respectively, that means that in absolute terms China added an incredible $1.7 trillion to its economy while India added $362 billion to its economy, in other words China added a bit more than x4 what India added to its economy.

2017年中国GDP是12.25万亿美元，印度GDP为2.439万亿美元。期间，两国的经济增长率分别为6.9%和6.7%。也就是说，绝对值上，中国经济增量为1.7万亿美元，印度则为3620亿美元。换句话讲，中国经济增量比印度经济增量多4倍。

My biggest worry is that India might be growing too slow to escape the middle income trap, there is a real danger that India might become stagnant in the middle income trap because it is not growing fast enough, case in point lets make a comparison to when China was where India is today and compare their respective growth rate:

我最担心的是，印度经济可能会增长太慢，而无法摆脱中等收入陷阱。有一个真正的危险，印度可能因为增长不够快而陷入中等收入陷阱。举个例子，让我们比较一下中国处于印度目前经济水平的情况，并比较它们各自的增长率:

Though both economies are comparable we can see that the growth rate exceeds 10% in China while in India it is much lower, I believe it is essential that India grows in excess of 10% at this stage or else it will really struggle to pull a vast amount of people out of poverty and might get stuck in the middle income trap which would be the worst nightmare for India.

两国经济具有可比性，然而中国经济增长率超过10%，印度增速慢很多。我认为关键是，在这一阶段印度增长率要超过10%，否则确实很难让穷人脱贫，而且会陷入中等收入陷阱，这对印度来说将是个噩梦。

India tried to do a rather unconventional economic strategy, that is jumping straight from agriculture to services while China was and is completing the standard economic strategy that all developed countries followed that is agriculture to manufacturing to services at a rapid rate, India is now joining the manufacturing bandwagon but it is probably too late for that now as the world is heading into automation.

印度尝试从农业型经济跳跃到服务型经济。而中国则一直且正完成发达国家遵循的标准经济战略，即快速从农业型经济到制造型再到服务型经济。印度现在加入了制造业行列，但可能为时已晚了，因为世界正走向自动化。

Since it is too late to follow the conventional development strategy India is really on its own to develop a country of 1 billion at a massive scale.
And no it certainly won’t surpass China in 5 years time because India’s GDP then would be $3.9 trillion and China’s? that would be $18.3 trillion and for reference point the US GDP would be $23.5 trillion.

由于现在要遵循传统的发展战略已经太晚了，印度实际上是靠自己的力量来大规模发展一个人口达10亿的国家。印度当然无法在5年内超过中国。5年后，印度GDP会是3.9万亿美元，而中国GDP将高达18.9万亿美元，作为参考，美国GDP将为23.5万亿美元。

Subbu Thenan, Loves to read Economics
Let’s have Simple Math.
Today:
India’ s GDP – 2.2 trillion USD
China’s GDP – 11.2 trillion USD
If India grows on a average of 8%(may be i am too optimistic) in next 5 years and China grows at 5(may be i am too pessimistic) .
5 years later:
India’s GDP – Around 3.5 Trillion USD
China’s GDP – Around 14. 5 Trillion USD
Interestingly even with low growth China would have added more amount to GDP as India would have added to GDP.
So no way , India’s economy is not going to be at the level of China’s in next 5 years.

来做道简单的数学题：
现在：
印度GDP=2.2万亿美元，中国GDP=11.2万亿美元。如果印度以8%的速度发展（或许我太乐观了），中国保持5%（或许太悲观了）增速，那5年后——
印度GDP≈3.5万亿美元；中国GDP≈14.5万亿美元。
有趣的是，即使是在低增速的情况下，中国GDP增量也将更大。因此，印度经济不会在未来5年内达到中国目前的水平。

Problem with India is
1)Infrastructure and lack of quality education.
2)India has not yet come out of socialist clout that it has been embroiled for past 5–6 decades.
3)India has not gone full heartedly towards Globalisation.
4)Structural barriers like caste system makes it very difficult to overcome inefficient traditional business practices.
5) One of the youngest Nations with more than 50% population under age of 40, but these young youths don’t have the entrepreneurship vigor.
6) Added to this “Land” , If Government is not able acquire land for social programs then think of private corporations who needs to setup big industries, this is a very serious problem.Amendments to change that law was put down in 2015 after vigorous protests from Opposition and People.

印度的问题在于：
1、基础设施、素质教育不到位
2、印度还未摆脱社会主义的影响，过去5~6年一直深陷其中。
3、印度并未完全致力于全球化。
4、诸如种姓制度等结构性障碍，使其很难克服效率低下的商业做法。

5、超过一半的人口不到40岁，印度是最年轻的国家之一，但这些年轻人没有创业精神。
6、再加上“土地”问题，如果政府无法为社会项目取得土地，那就会考虑需要建立大产业的私营企业，这是一个非常严重的问题。2015年，在反对派和民众的强烈抗议下，修改该法律的提案被否决。

So , considering all these i wonder whether India will ever reach those heights in near term. May be after 20 years but definitely not now. This too considering all the above problems are somehow solved in next 5–8 years.
India is a nation of enormous potential but the social barriers hindering its fast growth.

考虑到以上问题，印度是否会在短期内达到中国目前的高度。20年后有可能，但绝对不是现在。这还是上述所有问题在未来5-8年里得到解决的情况下。
印度是一个潜力巨大的国家，但社会问题阻碍了印度的快速发展。

Robinson Law，don’t really like any religion
1. The infrastructure of India is less than 10% of China's;
2. The political wills and determination of the people in India are vastly divided;
3. The caste system has made the cooperation between them (different castes) almost impossible;
4. With the gender discrimination intact, majority of females in India are not well educated, this has made the upbringing of future generations much more difficult;
5. A big percentage of India's people are Muslims, cultural differences and thinking of Muslims are not pro business nor pro development;
6. Too many different political voices are not good for long term economic development. Every 5 years the possibility of the different political leaders taking over will make the development momentum to be interrupted;
So do you really think that India can have the same level of development as China does?

1.印度的基础设施不到中国的10％;
2.印度人民的政治意愿和决定有很大的分歧。
3. 印度的种姓制度使得他们之间的合作几乎是不可能的；
4、由于性别歧视依然存在，印度大多数女性受教育程度不高，这使得下一代的培养更加困难；
5、印度很大一部分人是穆斯林，穆斯林的文化差异和思想既不利于商业，也不利于发展；
6.太多不同的政见不利于长期的经济发展。每隔5年，都可能有不同的政治领导人上台，这将使发展势头受到干扰;
所以，你真认为印度的发展水平能赶上中国吗?

Xamba Yangzoim，Armchair General（2015-present）
When China and India started their countries, China was behind India for 10 years, e.g iron production—India 1640 kt vs China 250 kt, steel—India 1370 kt vs China 158 kt, coke—India 1910 kt vs China 540 kt, electricity—India 4.31 billion kwh vs China 4.90 billion kwh, cement—India 2140 kt vs China 660 kt, autos—India 22,000 vs China 100, length of railways—India 52,800 km vs China 21,000 km. India’s numbers were very impressive considering India had a little over half of the population of China.
70 years later, India is behind China for 10 years.
Conclusion? as time goes by the gap between China and India will be larger instead of smaller. Therefore 5 years from now, India will be behind China for 11 years vs today’s 10 years.

当中国和印度建国时，中国比印度落后十年。比如，铁产量-印度1640千吨VS中国250千吨；钢-印度1370千吨VS中国158 千吨，焦炭-印度1910 千吨VS中国540千吨，电-印度43.1亿千瓦时VS中国49亿千瓦时，水泥-印度2140 千吨 VS中国660 千吨, 汽车-印度22000辆VS中国100辆，铁路长度-印度52800公里VS中国21000公里。考虑到当时印度人口略超过中国人口的一半，印度的这些数字令人印象深刻。
然而70年后，印度却比中国落后10年。
结论是? 随着时间的推移，中印之间的差距将越来越大，而不是越来越小。因此，5年后，印度将比中国落后11年，而目前是10年。