一名退休将军称15年后我们可能和中国发生战争，你怎么看？ [美国媒体]

A retired Army official makes a claim that a war is likely to happen with China in 15 years. Do you agree with his prediction? History plays an important role when it comes to dominating powers vs emerging powers

一名退休将军称15年后我们可能和中国发生战争，你怎么看？



Mas Miwa, former Engineer at Hughes Space and Communications
Answered Oct 27
It’s possible. China, while not seeking a war with America, will defend herself if need be.
The US, the world’s hegemon, is seeing its powers dimish and our leaders see China as the cause. The rhetoric from Trump and Pence lead us in that direction.
Whenever anyone wants a war, they have to have an enemy. If none, one has to create one. We are in the process of creating an enemy. We ignore our past, we ignore what others think about us, we think we can bully our way because we have the strongest military in the world. We seem not to learn lessons very well.
How many small nations have we invaded and declared a victory? If a victory, do you see any country we are victorious over, coming our way? Even Iraq is hedging towards Iran. Japan seems to hedge towards China. Even India is again trying to be neutral after a false feigned towards the US. Today, Iran seems conciliatory towards Saudi Arabia. All the fears and paranoia created by the US in the world are starting to unravel. Trump’s efforts are isolating the US from the rest of the world. Our allies are having doubts, our friends are becoming less and less inclined. Our enemies are getting stronger. Ask yourself why? Could it be that in today’s world other countries are bold enough to challenge the US primacy? Maybe they seek an independent path and have a mind of their own that doesn’t follow American hegemonic plans.

有可能。中国虽然不想和美国开战，但如有需要中国还是会捍卫自己。世界霸权的美国眼看自己的力量在衰减，而我们的领导人认为中国是原因。川普和彭斯的言论带领我们走向了那个方向。想要战争，就必须先要有敌人。如果没有，那就创造一个。而我们正在创造敌人。我们无视我们的过往，无视他人对我们的看法，我们认为可以为所欲为，因为我们拥有世界上最强大的军队。我们貌似不懂得吸取教训。我们入侵了多少小国，有过多少次胜利？如果胜利了，那些被我们打败的国家走向我们了吗？甚至伊拉克都在走向伊朗，日本貌似走向中国。甚至印度在假装走向我们后，现在努力保持中立。如今，伊朗和沙特缓和。美国在世界上所创造的所有恐惧和偏执开始散去。川普的做法将美国隔绝于世界。我们的盟友开始怀疑，我们的朋友越来越没有倾向。我们的敌人越来越强大。为什么？是不是在如今的世界，其他国家胆子大到敢挑战美国的霸主地位？或许是因为他们想走一条独立的路线，有自己的独立思维，不想追随美国的霸权计划。



“Most of the map is still draped with stars and stripes of the American flag as the USA has over 800 military bases overseas in 70 countries and it is entangled in conflicts from Afghanistan to Sudan, and its meddling in many past conflicts has opened a can of worms and further exacerbated the situation.”
Map shows which countries are the biggest threats to peace
It is interesting to note that while one expects Russia, China, and North Korea to be a threat to the US, now we see Mexico, South America, Europe, parts of Africa, Australia, and most of the Middle East view America is the greatest threat to world peace. Could it be that your question, while has some validity, is countered by the fact that more and more countries are aligning against the US, China and Russia are obvious. It seems the Asian countries and the EU are looking at the China-Russia alliance as an alternative to America. At best they are trying to stay neutral, at worse, they will move towards an alliance. If so, what does that mean for the US?

美国在海外70个国家拥有超过800个军事基地，卷入了从阿富汗到苏丹的战争，美国在过往多次冲突中的介入已经打开了害虫之盒，进一步恶化了局势。有意思的是虽然人们会期望俄罗斯，中国，朝鲜成为美国的威胁，但是现在墨西哥，南美，欧洲，非洲部分地区，澳洲，中东大部分地区都认为美国对世界和平构成最大威胁。现在有越来越多国家在反对美国，中俄最明显。貌似亚洲国家和欧盟都视中俄联盟为美国的替代。这些国家不是保持中立就是转向联盟。如果是这样，这对美国来说意味着什么？



Ryan Logsdon, Software Engineer (2002-present)
Answered Oct 25
I disagree. I doubt we will see any more wars that are direct super-power to super-power conflicts. Why? Our economies are just way too entwined. It’s not like the old days, where economies were independent and you could wage war outside it.
If China declared war on the US we would seize trillions in assets they have spent several decades buying up. They tied themselves to us, and us to them, economically and on purpose.
We can have fights and controversies, but I find the idea of all out war with China super far-fetched. We both just have too much to lose.

我不赞同。我认为超级强国之间是不可能发生战争的。为什么？我们的经济太过互相依赖了。不像以前，经济体之间是独立的，所以可以轻松的发动战争。如果中国对美宣战，我们将没收他们万亿美元的资产。他们故意将我们的经济同他们的经济绑在一起。我们可以有冲突和争议，但是和中国全面开战是不可能的。双方都会损失惨重。