为什么西方不应该低估中俄军事关系 [美国媒体]

Why the West Should Not Underestimate China-Russia Military Ties

为什么西方不应该低估中俄军事关系



Conventional wisdom among Western policymakers and analysts holds that burgeoning China-Russia military ties are a shallow partnership of convenience, primarily fueled by shortsighted U.S. policies, yet bound to be undermined by diverging national interests and ongoing mutual distrust. As then-U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis noted during a press conference in September: "I see little in the long term that aligns Russia and China."

西方决策者和分析人士的传统观点认为，迅速发展的中俄军事关系是一种表面的权宜之计，主要是被美国短视的政策推动的，但必然会受到国家利益分歧和持续的互不信任的影响。正如时任美国国防部长詹姆斯•马蒂斯在9月份的一次记者招待会上所说：“我认为，从长期来看，俄罗斯和中国难以保持一致。”



Notably, China and Russia are not committed to collective defense. The two nations do not have a formal security pact that commits them to defend one another in the event of a military conflict and bilateral military agreements between China and Russia do not contain a casus foederis clause obligating one side to come to the defense of the other. Indeed, both sides continue to see one another as an improbable, yet nonetheless real military threat. For example, Russia has repeatedly expressed concern over China's large arsenal of conventional and nuclear-tipped land-based intermediate range cruise and ballistic missiles, while China is eying with suspicion the re-strengthening of the Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet.

值得注意的是，中国和俄罗斯并不致力于集体防御。两国没有正式承诺在发生军事冲突时互相保护的安全协议，中俄双边军事协定中也没有共同敌人条款——即一方有义务保护另一方。事实上，双方继续将对方视为一种不太可能的、但却是实在的军事威胁。例如，俄罗斯曾多次对中国的大量常规、核弹头陆基中程巡航导弹、弹道导弹表示关切，而中国则怀疑俄罗斯海军重新加强太平洋舰队。

However, a closer examination reveals that China and Russia could indeed incrementally forge a stronger military strategic partnership.

然而，进一步研究表明，中国和俄罗斯确实可以逐步建立更强大的军事战略伙伴关系。



While in a previous analysis I noted that the Chinese and Russian militaries are not in the process of achieving NATO-like interoperability any time soon, China's participation in the Vostok (Eastern) 2018 exercise has yielded tangible practical benefits for the PLA beyond political symbolism. For example, the military exercise provided valuable insights for the PLA for deploying brigade-sized forces that integrate air and ground elements, along with special operations forces, abroad. Especially in the area of expeditionary logistics the exercise offered a useful practical experience to the PLA.

虽然我在之前的分析中指出，中国和俄罗斯军队短期内无法达到类似北约的协同能力，但中国参与“东方2018” 演习，除了政治象征意义外，还为解放军带来了实实在在的利益。例如，这次军事演习为中国人民解放军在海外部署集空军、陆军和特种作战部队于一体的旅级部队提供了宝贵的经验。特别是在远征军后勤方面，这次演习为中国人民解放军提供了有益的实践经验。

Notably, Sino-Russian military exercises for the past decade have been conducted in the Russian language using joint command codes of the Russian command system. This is partially the result of a large number of PLA officers studying at Russian military academic institutions with potentially wide-reaching consequences. "Together with narrowly specialized technical knowledge, the PLA's officers absorb the knowledge of Russian military traditions, strategies, and tactics, which is likely to exert a significant impact on China's military build-up and army organization and make the two countries' overall thinking about modern threats and warfare more compatible," Alexander Korolev emphasized in an April 2018 journal article in Asian Security.

值得注意的是，在过去十年中，中俄军事演习使用的是俄文，使用的是俄军指挥系统的联合指挥代码。这在一定程度上是大量解放军军官在俄罗斯军事学术机构学习的结果，可能产生广泛的影响。“解放军军官结合专业技术知识，吸收俄罗斯军事传统、战略、战术等方面的知识，有可能对中国的军事建设和军事组织产生重大影响，使两国对现代威胁和战争的总体思路更加一致，”亚历山大科洛夫在2018年4月在亚洲安全期刊文章中强调。

China and Russia also continue to deepen cooperation in the military-technical field. Following a fallout over Chinese unlicensed reverse engineering practices in 2006 and 2007, military-technical cooperation has gradually increased over the years with China retaining the status of a "special" or "privileged partner." The largest bilateral defense programs pertain to air defense systems and aircraft engines, with China no longer seen as merely an export market by Russia, but a genuine defense industry partner. Russian and Chinese officials have repeatedly stressed that military-technical cooperation constitutes the backbone of the China-Russia strategic partnership.

中俄两国还将继续深化在军事技术领域的合作。在2006年和2007年中国无证逆向工程行为的影响下，多年来两国军事技术合作逐步加强，中国保持着“特殊”或“特许合作伙伴”的地位。最大的双边防务项目涉及防空系统和飞机发动机，中国不再仅仅被俄罗斯视为一个出口市场，而是一个真正的国防工业伙伴。俄中官员多次强调，军事技术合作是中俄战略伙伴关系的支柱。



In the decade ahead, we should not only expect to see an increase in the size and scope of Sino-Russian military exercises, but also anticipate increased cooperation at the military technical level between the two countries. The recent deliveries of Su-35s and S-400 air defense systems alone will necessitate military personnel exchanges and joint trainings, as well as the sharing of operational experiences between the countries' militaries. Closer Sino-Russian military ties should nonetheless not be confounded with a genuine military alliance. China historically has eschewed any type of formal alliance and will likely continue to do so. At the same time, dismissing burgeoning Sino-Russian military ties due to divergent Chinese and Russian national interests and a lack of NATO-type force interoperability risks glossing over the already deepening level of military cooperation between the two countries.

今后十年，我们不仅会看到中俄军事演习规模和范围的扩大，而且会看到两国军事技术层面的合作不断加强。仅最近交付的苏-35和S-400防空系统就需要两国军事人员交流和联合训练，以及两国军队之间的作战经验交流。然而，更紧密的中俄军事关系不应与真正的军事联盟混为一谈。中国历来回避任何形式的正式联盟，而且很可能会继续这样做。与此同时，由于中国和俄罗斯的国家利益分歧，以及缺乏北约式的军队协同能力，对迅速发展的中俄军事关系存在着风险，可能会掩盖两国业已深化的军事合作。


32622751
I reckon this'll be quite an interesting topic to look into in the upcoming years. Nadège Rolland's article: A China–Russia Condominium over Eurasia, is another well written article which I would recommend you take a look. A quick excerpt is as follows:
If the analysis of Chinese Russia experts is any indication, China and Russia may be able to transform Eurasia into a joint playground instead of a battlefield. The Chinese leadership is well aware of the possibility that a sensitive and insecure Russia could overreact to China’s rising influence in what Moscow regards as its own sphere of influence. In order to preclude conflict, Beijing’s inclination is therefore to play the cooperative card, persuading the Kremlin that China’s thrust into Eurasia actually supports Russia’s goals, focusing on common political, economic and security interests, and letting Moscow claim the role of ‘Greater Eurasia’ leader if it pleases.
As times goes on, problems might emerge in the Sino-Russian relationship. Russia may eventually realise that China poses a profound threat to its interests and ambitions and decide to get serious about competition. But it took the United States nearly a quarter of a century to come to a similar conclusion. Over the medium term, a Sino-Russian condominium over Eurasia will probably continue to take shape.
Honestly, It'll be difficult to speculate on far how this cooperation would push through in the upcoming decades. While the Chinese leadership will continue to push for a low-friction path by accommodating Russia's needs in Central Asia, it'll definitely be difficult to assuage these fears of losing influence considering the vast economic disparity. On the other hand, they do currently share an overarching goal which is the increased economic connectivity of Eurasia as evident with Russia's Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) proposal and China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

我想这是一个非常有趣的话题，可以在未来几年研究。Nadège Rolland的文章：中俄共同统治的欧亚大陆，是另一篇写得很好的文章，我建议你看看。快速摘录如下：
“从中俄专家的分析来看，中国和俄罗斯可能会把欧亚大陆变成一个联合的游乐场，而不是战场。中国领导层非常清楚，一个敏感而不稳定的俄罗斯可能会对中国在其势力范围内不断增强的影响力做出过度反应。因此，为了避免冲突，北京方面倾向于打合作牌，说服克里姆林宫相信，中国进入欧亚大陆实际上是支持俄罗斯的目标，关注共同的政治、经济和安全利益，如果愿意的话，就让莫斯科宣称自己是“大欧亚大陆”的领导人。”



seoulite87
If the West is worried about a Sino-Russian alliance, they should try to support one against the other. Basic diplomacy dating back since the times of Sun-Tse. China is the only credible threat and rival to Team West as a whole. Russia is just a paper tiger with limited resources. But the West is antagonizing and sanctioning Russia as hard as ever. So what did you expect? Under current circumstances, Russia has no other option but to align itself with China, even if that means ceding its influence over central Asia. If the West is serious about containing China's growing influence, they should give a breathing space for Russia.

如果西方担心中俄联盟，那他们应该努力支持其中一方对抗另一方。这是基本的外交手段，可以追溯到孙子时代。中国是整个西方阵营唯一确凿的威胁和对手。俄罗斯只是资源有限的纸老虎。但西方仍在一如既往地对抗和制裁俄罗斯。那你还能期待什么呢? 在当前形势下，俄罗斯别无选择，只能与中国结盟，即使这意味着放弃对中亚的影响力。如果西方真的想遏制中国日益增长的影响力，他们应该给俄罗斯一个喘息的空间。

Sambam18
I don’t how possible if it’s for Russia to move away from China, they’re the only expanding natural gas market they have access to, and Russia is very reliant on their natural gas revenue.

俄罗斯怎么可能离开中国，中国是俄罗斯唯一可以进入的不断扩大的天然气市场，俄罗斯非常依赖他们的天然气收入。



diehard1972
Russia will play the game they always have post-1969 exchange of fire with China. They don't and will never trust each other beyond the focus of providing wiggle room to operate under the current situation with the US then add the fact China is feeling their power. This power has no allegiance to Russia. In fact, the Russian natural resources, which China needs, is obvious and compelling for China and Russia knows it. There are many Chinese nationals already in the Siberian region, mostly just over the border. Not by chance btw.
Russia is declining as a power and both know it, while China is rising. China doesn't need Russia beyond the captive market of energy which Russia is frankly forced to sell. i.e. Russia needs to sell more than China needs to buy.
Regardless, this will not end well for Russia. You could see a collapse thus why Putin is playing hard now. Simply, demographics is dominating Russia right now.
Breathing space only delays what will continue to be a once proud nation slowly disappearing.

1969年中俄交火，以后俄罗斯也会这么继续下去。他们不会也永远不会信任彼此，除了在目前美国压迫的形势下获得回旋余地之外，还要加上中国正在感受到自己力量的事实。这股力量不是为了支持俄罗斯的，事实上，中国需要的是俄罗斯的自然资源，这是显而易见的，中俄两国都知道这一点。在西伯利亚地区已经有很多中国公民，大部分就在边境那边。顺便说一下，不是偶然的。
俄罗斯的大国地位正在衰落，双方都知道这一点，而中国正在崛起。中国需要的不是俄罗斯，而是俄罗斯被迫出售的垄断能源市场。也就是说，俄罗斯需要卖的比中国需要买的多。
无论如何，这对俄罗斯来说都不会有好结果。你会看到一场崩溃，这就是为什么普京现在这么卖力。简单地说，人口目前正在主导着俄罗斯。
这点喘息空间不过是让这个曾经光荣的国家消失得慢一点罢了。



i_already_forgot
Which is exactly what the Chinese want. They're not stupid enough to think that Russia can be forced into bad agreements in the long term. That they can buy long term agreements at all makes them happy enough because Russia isn't in a position to credibly threaten China even with economically favorable agreements.

这正是中国人想要达到的目的。他们还不至于愚蠢到认为俄罗斯会被迫签订糟糕的长期协议。中国完全可以签订长期协议，这让中国感到非常高兴，因为即使这些协议在经济上有利，俄罗斯也无法威胁到中国。

barryhakker
Yeah I agree that if anything China is willing to make some concessions to Russia for the sake of good relations. The power disparity at the moment is hugely in favor of china anyway and giving up some leeway is not going to change that in the slightest.

是的，我同意，中国愿意为了良好的关系而对俄罗斯做出一些让步。无论如何，目前的实力差距对中国非常有利，放弃一些回旋余地也不会改变这一点。

Werty_Rebooted
Not really. The Chinese destroy the environment of those zones, take everything they can and then some Moscow businessmen and politicians take some money home, but the main benefit goes to China, and all the harm to the people close to those places (Siberia, etc).

不是的。中国人破坏了这些地区的环境，拿走了他们能拿走的一切，然后一些莫斯科商人和政客赚到了钱，但主要的利益归中国，而所有的伤害都由这些地方的人(西伯利亚)承受。



pityutanarur
Each country has a choice in foreign policy, only "the west" is not a country - Russia is

每个国家在外交政策上都有自己的选择，只有“西方”不是一个国家——而俄罗斯是。