印度和巴基斯坦处于危险边缘，会是一场核噩梦吗？ [美国媒体]

On the 26th, Indian warplanes entered Pakistani airspace and claimed that the purpose was to combat terrorist organizations in response to previous terrorist attacks on Indian police in Kashmir. Pakistan condemned the move and said it reserved the right to fight back at any time and place. Indian officials say at least three Pakistani fighter jets entered Kashmir on the 27th and were later intercepted by Indian troops. According to Pakistan's "Dawn" news, the Pakistani military said that in Kashmir, two Indian aircraft were shot down, an Indian pilot was captured.

26日，印度战机曾进入巴基斯坦领空，并宣称目的是为了打击恐怖组织，以回应此前印度警察在克什米尔遭受的恐怖袭击。巴基斯坦对此举表示谴责，并称保留在任何的时间和地点回击的权力。
印度官方表示，27日至少3架巴基斯坦战斗机进入克什米尔地区，之后被印军升空拦截。另据巴基斯坦《黎明报》消息，巴基斯坦军方表示，在克什米尔有2架印度飞机被击落，1名印度飞行员被俘。

India and Pakistan are in the throes of the most serious military standoff between them since 2002. After years of absorbing terror attacks conceived by non-state groups based on Pakistani soil, India decided enough was enough after a February 14 vehicle-borne improvised explosive device killed forty paramilitary personnel. its response？ An airstrike on what it claimed was a camp run by Jaish-e-Mohammed, the group that claimed the attack, on Pakistani soil.

印度和巴基斯坦正在经历2002年以来最严重的军事对峙。印度多年来一直在巴基斯坦领土上遭受着非国家组织策划的恐怖袭击。2月14日，一枚车载简易爆炸装置炸死40名准军事人员，印度认为已经够了。它的回应呢？这次空袭的目标是穆罕默德军在巴基斯坦境内的一个营地，该组织声称发动了之前的袭击。



On Wednesday, Pakistani escalation followed across the Line of Control after Pakistan Air Force F-16s conducted strikes of their own. Both sides again presented battling narratives about what sort of targets were struck, with Pakistan trying to make clear that its response was proportional retaliation for India’s strikes. An Indian official statement, meanwhile, stated that while the Pakistani fighters targeted “military installations,” they had been “foiled successfully.”

星期三，巴基斯坦空军F -16战机进行了他们自己的攻击后，巴基斯坦越过控制线，局势升级。双方再次就袭击了哪些目标展开了激烈的争论，巴基斯坦试图表明，它的回应是对印度袭击的适当报复。与此同时，印度发表的一份官方声明说，尽管巴基斯坦武装分子以“军事设施”为目标，但他们“成功将其挫败了”。

One complicating factor was the loss of Indian aircraft in the exchange on Wednesday. One Indian Air Force pilot, forced to ditch his MiG-21 fighter, was taken into Pakistani custody. Pakistan’s military released footage showing the pilot in good health—presumably to ward off criticisms that had followed of the mistreatment of Indian pilots during the 1999 Kargil War.
The Indian acknowledgment that Pakistan targeted “military installations” in retaliation for New Delhi’s calibrated “non-military” strike will increase pressure on the Indian government to now retaliate in turn. That’d make a third round of escalation, raising the possibility of an all-out spiral that’d quickly risk taking the two countries close to the low nuclear threshold that exists between them thanks to Pakistan’s aggressive nuclear strategy and battlefield nuclear weapons.

一个复杂的因素是，印度飞机在周三的交火中失事。一名印度空军飞行员被迫放弃米格-21战斗机，被巴基斯坦拘留。巴基斯坦军方公布的录像显示，这名飞行员身体状况良好，这大概是为了避免1999年卡吉尔战争期间印度飞行员受到虐待的批评。
印度承认，巴基斯坦以“军事设施”为目标，以报复新德里精心策划的“非军事”打击，这将加大印度政府现在采取报复行动的压力。这将导致第三轮冲突升级，从而加大全面升级的可能性，因为巴基斯坦咄咄逼人的核战略和战场上的核武器，全面升级有可能迅速使两国接近低核门槛。



Other possible avenues by which the crisis may be de-escalated include the intervention of third powers. The United States is distracted with the ongoing summitry in Hanoi, Vietnam, and China and Russia are each seen as too partisan to Pakistan and India respectively. Numerous nations have issued statements calling on both sides to practice restraint, in the meantime.
Whatever happens next rests in the hands of political decisionmakers in India. This conflict can find an off-ramp, but it must come quickly. Above all, national strategy cannot be allowed to fall victim to the passions of domestic constituencies all too eager to march toward a ruinous and likely uncontrollable war, assuming it will remain under the nuclear threshold.

危机可能降级的其他可能途径包括第三大国的干预。在河内举行的峰会分散了美国的注意力。中国和俄罗斯分别被认为过于偏袒巴基斯坦和印度。与此同时，许多国家发表声明，呼吁双方保持克制。
接下来发生的一切都掌握在印度政治决策者的手中。这种冲突可以找到出路，但必须尽快到来。最重要的是，不能让国家战略成为国内选民激情的牺牲品，这些选民太急于走向一场毁灭性的、可能无法控制的战争，前提是战争仍将处于核门槛之下。

James 3 hours ago
In 1972, my ship, USS Tripoli LPH-10 was sent from Okinawa around to just off the India/Pakistan border, where we were to evacuate US citizens when those two got into one of their border disputes. Spent Christmas and New Years circling around in company of the USS Enterprise. Lousy holiday for sure.

1972年，我乘坐的“的黎波里号”( LPH-10)军舰从冲绳被派往印巴边境附近，当两国发生边界争端时，我们要从那里撤离美国公民。在美国企业号航空母舰的陪伴下度过了圣诞节和新年。糟糕的假期。



PaulC 10 hours ago
They are not on the brink. India and Pakistan have been killing each other over Kashmir for decades. Actually this may go back centuries from merely religious differences. They will continue killing each other as both sides claim this as theirs.

他们并没有处于危险的边缘。几十年来，印度和巴基斯坦一直在克什米尔问题上自相残杀。事实上，这可以追溯到几个世纪以前，仅仅是宗教上的分歧。他们将继续互相残杀，因为双方都声称这是他们的。

Danny 3 hours ago
The Indian public, in the meantime, is subject to a highly nationalistic media environment that is already treating events in recent days as the precursor to a conflict.
Our media is whole heartedly neutral in its accounting of events though, right?

“与此同时，印度公众受到高度民族主义的媒体环境的影响，这些媒体已经把最近几天的事件视为冲突的前兆。”
我们的媒体对事件的报道是完全中立的，对吗?

El Chorizototote 4 hours ago
The thing is these aircraft are so old and none maintained that if they are fired they may take off the wrong way and end up in Iran , is that good or bad ?

问题是这些飞机太旧了，没有人维护它们，如果它们被发射了，它们可能会以错误的方式起飞，最后降落在伊朗，这是好事还是坏事?



known4 hours ago
We would not have to worry anymore about H1B visas.

我们再也不用担心H1B签证了。
（注：H1B签证系美国最主要的工作签证类别，发放给美国公司雇佣的外国籍有专业技能的员工，属于非移民签证的一种。持有H1B签证者可以在美国工作三年，然后可以再延长三年，6年期满后如果签证持有者的身份还没有转化，就必须离开美国）

Jam 2 hours ago
Pakistan say it will use nukes if it is unable to repel an invasion from India. Not sure if India plans on invading them, I do know the last few skirmishes ended bad for Pakistan. Like, real bad.

巴基斯坦表示，如果它不能击退来自印度的入侵，它将使用核武器。我不确定印度是否计划入侵巴基斯坦，但我知道最近几次小规模冲突对巴基斯坦不利。真的很糟糕。

Carlos3 hours ago
Democrat’s: let’s find a way to blame Donald Trump on this.

民主党人:让我们想办法把这归咎于唐纳德·特朗普。

Chris2 hours ago
i think it will come to a small scale border war but it wont go nuclear.

我认为这将是一场小规模的边境战争，但不会发展成核战争。



Paul23 hours ago
Two nuclear armed countries, one with the world's largest population, and not one raw sewage treatment facility.

两个拥有核武器的国家，其中一个拥有世界上最多的人口，却没有一个原始的污水处理设施。

Fred Offsamee 8 hours ago
AOC just announced this is part of Green New Deal. "We support mass nuclear war between these two over populated countries！"

AOC刚刚宣布这是绿色新政的一部分。"我们支持这两个人口大国之间的大规模核战争！"

The Word yesterday
One way to solve the problem between Pakistan and India is to give Kashmir to China and you know India or Pakistan don't want to mess with China!

解决巴基斯坦和印度之间问题的一个方法是把克什米尔交给中国，你知道印度或巴基斯坦不想惹中国!

Joe
This stuff's been going on ever since India was partitioned

自从印度被分裂以来，这种事情就一直在发生。



Lone Wolf
Let the two countries destroy each other. That's one way to decrease the surplus population.

让这两个国家互相毁灭吧。这是减少过剩人口的一种方法。

John
Pakistan returned the pilot, saying they did not want further conflict. Think what you want to think. Could be they are afraid India will do some major damage or it could just be that they don't want war. I think NUCLEAR confrontation is ridiculous. NO ONE wants to die by radiation or nuclear blast.

巴基斯坦回答说，他们不想再发生冲突。你想怎么想就怎么想。可能是他们害怕印度会造成一些重大破坏，也可能只是因为他们不想要战争。
我认为核对抗是荒谬的。没有人想死于辐射或核爆炸。

Elvayesterday
They are not going to make nuclear war and if they do I hope Pakistan gets destroy.

他们不会发动核战争，如果他们发动核战争，我希望巴基斯坦被摧毁。

Tom
So Flynn and the Trump Admin were found to be contemplating illegally sharing nuclear technology and building nuclear power plants in Saudi Arabia. But MBS's blatant murder of Jamal Khashoggi brought up too many questions and halted those plans. Now MBS just made a $20 Billion trade deal with the increasingly Islamisist Pakistan. So the perpetrators of 911 and the folks who offered sanctuary to Bin Laden are now making other plans. What could go wrong? The emergency is on our southern boarder.

因此，弗林和特朗普政府被发现正在考虑非法共享核技术，并在沙特阿拉伯建设核电站。但穆罕默德对贾迈勒哈苏吉明目张胆的谋杀引发了太多问题，导致这些计划搁浅。如今，穆罕默德刚刚与日益信奉伊斯兰教的巴基斯坦达成了一项价值200亿美元的贸易协议。因此911事件的肇事者和为本拉登提供庇护的人们现在正在制定其他计划。会出什么问题呢?紧急情况发生在我们的南部边境。



James
My bets are on India if this goes that far. Besides I don't drink milk anymore so I don't have to worry about Strontium-90 in the fallout.

我打赌印度会走到这一步。此外，我不再喝牛奶了，所以我不必担心锶-90的辐射。

Sumsanity
I've always felt that this would be the first nuclear exchange between nations. Both are overpopulated with religious fanatics.
I figured it would be in the latter half of this century. Might be sooner.

我一直认为这将是国家间的第一次核战争。这两个国家都充斥着宗教狂热分子。我估计是在本世纪下半叶。可能会更早。



Connie Lingu
Well, since there are no amounts of vast oil reserves there, the U.S. will not get involved too much in this one. Just some lip service.

既然那里没有大量的石油储备，美国就不会过多地介入其中。只是说说而已。
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