一个亚洲需要了解的川普 [美国媒体]

What Asia needs to know about Trump

一个亚洲需要了解的川普



5 June 2016
Author: T J Pempel, UC Berkeley
Virtually every Asian academic, business leader,policymaker or taxi driver I have encountered in the last six months has,within minutes, pummelled me for answers to the Trump question.

在过去的六个月内，每当我遇到的亚洲学者、商业领袖、政治决策者甚至是出租车司机时，他们都会在短短几分钟内迫使我回答有关川普的问题。

They are flabbergasted that a man so bereft ofpolitical experience, foreign policy knowhow and macroeconomic basics, whoradiates disdain for foreigners, women and the disabled, has come to dominatethe American political dialogue. Bemused befuddlement at a self-aggrandisingbuffoon has given way to ripening anxiety that he may well become the nextoccupant of the Oval Office, unleashing disastrous consequences for economicand security relations across the Asia Pacific.

他们很是惊奇一个没有外交经验、政治经验和大经济常识，甚至是散布污蔑外国人、女性、残疾人言论的川普竟占据了美国人的政治话题。更让他们困惑与担心的是，这个狂妄自大甚至是丑角的川普很可能入驻白宫，由此对太平洋地区带来一系列政治和安全问题。
 
There are four points that Asians must understandabout the Trump phenomenon.

以下四点可以帮助我们理解这种川普现象。

First, the election has almost nothing to do with Asia. DespiteTrump’s periodicpronouncements aboutthe desirability of nuclear weapons for Japan and South Korea, his calls forhigh tariffs on Chinese exports and his scorn for free trade agreements,foreign policy remains far from the minds of most voters in 2016.

首先，这个选举和亚洲是完全没有关系的。尽管川普时不时的会宣称期望日本和南韩拥有核武器，叫嚣对中国进口商品提高关税，以及对自由贸易协议进行冷嘲热讽，其实真正的外交政策离许多这些2016大选的投票人还很遥远。

Driving American voters today is a toxic cocktail ofanger at what appears to be a rigged economic system serviced by a self-servingpolitical class. Fraudulent financiers crashed the economy in 2008 but got hugebonuses instead of jail cells. Corporations and top executives offshored themanufacturing jobs that once provided stable middle-class lifestyles for swathsof the American public. The social safety net is frayed, infrastructure iscollapsing and costly education provides little guarantee of upward mobility.Meanwhile, Washington politicians serve wealthy donors while the governmentspends trillionsof dollars onlosing wars in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq.

当今驱使美国投票人的主要原因是对现有这种服务于本身政治阶层的经济体系的强烈不满。那些搞砸了2008经济的商人不仅没有进监狱，反而获得了巨大的利益，大公司和高管们把曾经为美国大众提供稳定的中产阶级生活方式的工作机会放到离岸国家。社会安全体系正在破裂、建筑业正在衰退，花费巨大的教育体系却不能保证人们向上层的流动性。与此同时，美国政客服务于那些富有的捐赠者，而且失败了花费上万亿阿富汗、伊拉克、叙利亚战争。

That reservoir of public anger makes it easy tounderstand why Trump finds a ready audience for his catalogue of potentialscapegoats, be they Mexicans, minorities or Muslims.

这些大众不满情绪的积累，使得川普很容易引导大众认为这些原因的替罪羊是墨西哥人、少数种族人或者是穆斯林。

Second, Trump is the logical consequence of decades ofRepublican Party actions. Richard Nixon’s ‘Southern strategy’ drew in whitevoters upset about programs that enhanced minority electoral and social poweror challenged the views of evangelical Christians. Since then, the RepublicanParty has gained voter support by promising to reverse what many see as theerosion of traditional American values.

第二，川普也是近几十年来共和党实行的决策的结果。尼克松当年实行的南部政策，即增加少数人种选举权和社会权利，使得很多白人投票者很失望，认为这是对基督教价值的挑战。从那之后，共和党为了获得更多的投票者支持，承诺改变很多人认为会腐蚀美国传统价值的政策。

Dog whistles, code words and cost-free policies, alongwith the onslaughts of Fox News and conservative talk radio, have kept suchvoters loyal to the party. This is despite the fact that the party’s policypriorities in government have concentrated on providing benefits for a selectsliver of the Republican rich — regressive tax cuts lionising wealthy ‘jobcreators’; widespread deregulation in areas like pollution, worker safety andfinance; and a defunding of social programs, such as food stamps, medical assistance and earnedretirement benefits.

流氓哨、免费政策、对福克斯新闻的猛烈抨击、保守派说讲秀，使得这些投标者忠于共和党。虽然共和党在政府中的优先政策是保护共和党精英富人，通过减税、膜拜创造工作机会的富人，却忽视环境保护、工人安全、财政系统领域问题，而且减少对社会项目的支持，比如食物发放、医疗救助和退休养老福利。

Since Ronald Reagan first made the pronouncement, theRepublican Party’s mantra has been that government is not the solution; government is the problem. Compromise is disdained as selling out. In 2010,Senate Leader Mitch McConnell summed up the strategy, stating that his goal wasto ensure that Barack Obama remain a one-term president. Those efforts were advanced by a refusal to deal in atimely manner with judicial and administrative nominees, plus the lowest recordof legislation in modern history.

自从里根第一次发出了这种呼吁，共和党实行的政策就是政府不是问题的解决办法，政府本身就是问题。妥协不再被重视。在2010年时，众议院领袖买康奈尔声明他的目的就是让奥巴马只能做一任总统，进而通过拒绝法官和政府官员任命和最低的提案通过率来达到他的目的。

This failure of government to deliver any measure ofrelief to frustrated voters has fertilised the ground for Trump’s attacks.Decades of government inaction has left them hell-bent on throwing out the oldand bringing in the new. The violence at Trump rallies testifies to thatpent-up hostility.

政府的失败使得投票者很困惑，这为川普的进攻提供有力条件，数十年的政府不作为使得人民十分希望破旧立新。川普集会时发生的骚乱也证明了人民对政府的敌意。

The third point is that Trump could win. America’spunditry has not been short of predictions about how the Trump campaign iscertain to go down in flames. The Republican establishment is split. The party’ssupport level has plummeted. The Democratic Party has a built-in Electoral College advantage that will be bolstered by bipartisan waves ofvoters appalled at the prospect of a Trump presidency. Such claims certainlymake a powerful case for Trump’s defeat.

第三点就是川普可能会赢。美国的权威人士曾经预测过川普竞选注定会失败，共和党已经分裂、共和党的支持率很低。而民主党有大量的竞选优势，而且会被那些在两党之间犹豫徘徊的投票者支持，这些言论看似注定川普失败。

Yet the pundits now predicting a Trump thumping arethe same ones who argued that he could not get more than 10 per cent of theRepublican primary vote, that the Republican establishment would not ‘allow’ aTrump nomination or that media exposition of his inconsistencies would doom hiscandidacy. All such predictions have proven hollow. The Republicanestablishment has begun to rally behind Trump while his rapid-fire sequence ofbumper sticker slogans has replaced policy proposals, promising easy solutionsto a frustrated electorate rife with hidden Trump supporters.

但是这些现在预测川普崛起的权威人士，正是曾经那些预测川普连10%的共和党初选支持率都拿不到的人。他们认为共和党不会准许川普获得提名，或者媒体暴露的川普多变性也会使他失败，但是这些所有的预测都失败了。现在共和党集结在川普背后，川普之前的宣传语也换成了外交政策，承诺使用最简单的方式解决隐藏在川普支持者内的分歧。

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton’s unfavourability ratings represent a daunting barrier. Hercampaign skills are thin, and the Clinton candidacy still fights a two-frontwar with Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump that expends resources and politicalcapital.

同时，希拉里的不受支持率也也是一个巨大障碍，她竞选的策略太单一，还要同时面对波尼桑德和川普的两面夹击，这花费了他太多的资源和政治资本。

The overarching problem for Clinton is less thatSanders supporters and Republican moderates will hold their noses and supporthim. Rather, it is that they will rally around a protest candidate or willrefrain from voting all together. When mobilisation levels are high, Democratswin. When they are not, they lose.

对希拉里来说最大的问题就是桑德的支持者和共和党中间派对桑德的支持。抑或，这些中间派不投他们任何一个人，当这些中间派流动性高的时候民主党获胜，反之就输。

Finally, aTrump presidency would be catastrophic for Asia. His campaign isbereft of foreign policy expertise and numerous experienced Republicanoperatives have declared their unabashed opposition to him. Would some of them join a Trump administration? Quitepossibly, but hardly in the numbers needed to offset Trump’s ‘America first’prioritisation.

最后一点，川普当选的话对亚洲是个灾难。川普的竞选团队缺乏外交经验，以及许多有经验的共和党人坚决反对川普。他们在会有人加入川普执政团队吗？也许会，但是愿意的人恐怕很难抵消川普一切美国优先的政策。

Economic relationships from regional trade pacts tomultilateral institutions are likely to become fodder for Trump’sself-proclaimed expertise as a deal maker. So too are decades-long alliances,America’s longstanding commitment to nuclear non-proliferation, its nuanced effortsto balance engagement with hedging in China policy and the determination tobalance US military muscularity with diplomatic sensitivity.

地区贸易经济关系和多边组织将会成为自称商业经营的川普的目标。长久以来美国对建立的盟友关系，对核不扩散的承诺、精心的隔离中国策略，通过外交手段来平衡美国的军事力量的决心都可能会成为他的目标。

Asians are right to be worried. But it is not clearthat they can do much except await the results of November’s election.

亚洲有必要担心。但是目前来说也做不了什么，只能等到11月的选举结果。