为何中国不介意置身TPP之外 [美国媒体]

In case you hadn’t heard, the Trans-Pacific Partnership is a really big deal — unless you're China.
The largest regional trade agreement in history involves the United States and 11 countries in the Asia Pacific and the Americas, which collectively represent about 40% of world GDP and around a quarter of global exports.

More than five years in the making, the TPP, as it is commonly referred to, was finalized on Monday, but it still needs the approval of lawmakers in member countries, including the U.S. Congress.

TPP是一件大事，不过对中国而言就不是了。

TPP是史上最大的区域贸易协定，涵括美国及十一个亚太及美洲国家，共计40%的全球GDP、大约四分之一的全球出口额。

超过5年的协商，TPP于本周一最终完成，不过仍然需要各成员国立法机构批准，包括美国议会。

Given the importance of the accord, which is designed to boost cross-border trade and investment among member countries and, ultimately, economic growth, it might seem strange that China, the world’s second largest economy and biggest trading nation on the planet, has been left out.

While a lot of the details of the deal are still secret, the TPP is clearly more than just a free trade agreement. In addition to slashing or eliminating 98% of tariffs on thousands of goods including dairy, beef, sugar, cars, tractors and chemicals, it also establishes common rules and regulations for trade and investment across member countries as well as external tribunals to sort out disputes.

鉴于协议的重要性，尤其是其推动成员国间跨境贸易与投资、最终促进经济增长的初衷，缺少中国这个世界上第二大经济体、这个星球上最大的贸易国的参与让人觉得奇怪。

尽管许多条款细节仍然是机密，TPP明显超过了一般的自贸协议。除了去除98%数以万计商品、涵括了乳制品、牛肉、糖、汽车、拖拉机及化学制品等的关税外，TPP还制定了成员国间关于贸易和投资通行的规则、法规以及解决争端的外部仲裁机构。

TPP member states will include the United States, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Chile and Peru. More countries are expected to join the exclusive trading club, but given the tough membership rules, China is not expected to sign up any time soon.

Perhaps never.

TPP成员将包括美国、日本、马来西亚、越南、新加坡、文莱、澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大、墨西哥、智利及秘鲁。更多的国家将会加入这个排外的贸易社团，不过由于成员资格规则苛刻，中国预计将不会急着签约加入。
也可能永远不会。

Excluding China has been widely interpreted as an attempt by the United States to curtail Beijing’s growing political and economic might in the Asia Pacific region, and some experts have described it as a “terrible mistake.”

But does Beijing really care? Possibly not as much as you might think.

For starters, China doesn’t need to belong to the TPP to enjoy some of the perks that come with being a member.

排斥中国被广泛解读为美国压制北京在亚太区域不断增长的政治和经济力量，有专家称之为“可怕的错误”

Beijing already has free trade agreements with more than half of the TPP countries, including Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Peru, Singapore, Brunei and Vietnam, and it can exploit those arrangements to minimize or avoid import duties that would normally apply to made-in-China products.

Felipe Caro and Christopher Tang of UCLA's Anderson School of Managementexplained in Fortune magazine this week how that could work.

北京已经与超过半数的TPP成员国签署了双边自由贸易协定，这些国家包括澳大利亚、新西兰、智利、秘鲁、新加坡、文莱及越南，可以通过这些协定最大程度降低或免除那些中国制造产品的进口关税。

加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森商学院的Felipe Caro 及 Christopher Tang在本周的《财富》杂志上解释了如何可以利用现有的自贸协定。

“To satisfy certain country¬-of-¬origin conditions stipulated in TPP, China can manage the supply chain operations of cotton shirts by importing cotton from Pakistan (via its existing free trade agreement with China) and conduct 'upstream' operations, such as fabric design, knitting and dyeing at home.

"Then China can ship the fabric to Vietnam (via an existing free trade agreement with China). At the same time, Japan can ship the buttons to Vietnam (via the TPP). Vietnam can perform 'downstream' operations (sewing) and then ship the finished shirts via TPP agreement to Australia, Japan and the United States, cutting off the 5%, 10.9% and 16.5% import duties that would have applied if China had dealt directly with these countries.”

“要满足TPP设定的原产国条款，中国可以这样控制棉制衬衫的供应链，先由巴基斯坦（已与中国签订了自贸协定）进口棉花，然后在国内进行“上游”加工、如面料设计、编织、染整。

然后再将织物运送到越南（已与中国签订了自贸协定），同时日本将钮扣运送到越南（通过TPP协议）。越南再进行“下游”加工（缝制），最后将成品衬衫通过TPP协议发送到澳大利亚、日本和美国，这样中国就省下了与这些国家直接贸易需要被分别征收的5%、10.9%和16.5%进口关税。

And China clearly doesn’t require the TPP to enhance its already sizeable influence in the world.

Beijing is a card-carrying member of the World Trade Organization, has a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and is the driving force behind the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which could potentially become a rival to theWorld Bank and Asia Development Bank once it gets going.

中国很显然并不需要TPP去增强其在全球业已规模庞大的影响力。

北京是世界贸易组织的正式成员、在联合国的安理会上拥有永久席位，是亚洲基础设施建设银行(AIIB)的主力，AIIB一旦启动以后将是世界银行和亚洲开发银行的潜在对手。

The China-led AIIB, which has the support of dozens of countries, aims to fund infrastructure projects in the region and could help Beijing buy the support of its neighbors.

China is also on track to become one of the world’s biggest overseas investors by 2020, with outbound foreign direct investment already topping $100 billion a year. In some countries, China’s investment is actually bigger than the loans they get from theInternational Monetary Fund, and that gives Beijing a lot of economic and political clout.

中国领导的亚洲基础设施建设银行拥有数十个国家的支持，着眼于为区域基础设施提供融资，将会为北京赢得其邻国的支持。

按照目前的发展速度，到2020年北京将会成为全球最大的海外投资者。其每年输出的对外直接投资已经达到了1000亿美元。对某些国家，中国的投资超过了国际货币基金组织，这些投资让北京拥有了巨大的经济和政治影响力。

On top of that China is busy negotiating its own free-trade pact with 15 countries in the Asia Pacific region and is expected to become the world's largest economy in the next decade.

在这基础上，中国目前在加紧与15个亚太国家协商中国版的自贸协定，预计将于下个十年里成为世界上最大的经济体。

“That preponderance is driven by China’s sheer size, its continued growth — which though slower than in the past is still faster than that of most other Asian economies — and its increasing centrality in global supply chains,” Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Gavekal Dragonomics and editor of China Economic Quarterly, told Foreign Policy.

Missing out on a TPP membership card won't change that.

“优势是建立在中国的庞大规模、持续的增长之上，尽管有所放缓但仍超过亚洲大多数国家的速度，以及其位于全球供应链的核心之上” 龙洲经讯总经理兼《经济学(季刊)》编辑Arthur Kroeber告诉《外交政策》。

This article originally appeared on GlobalPost. Its content was created separately to USA TODAY.

本文最早见于GlobalPost网站。内容另行整理给了《今日美国》。

 

Matthew Nelson •

University of Utah

This sounds like as big of a blunder as the Iran deal. How about the bergdahl deal where we traded 5 commanders for one deserter. The obama administration could not negotiate themselves out of a paper bag.

这次出的错就像伊朗协议一样大。看看我们为交换bergdahl作的交易，用5个指挥官换回来一个逃兵。除了空空纸袋子，奥巴马政府什么也谈不回来。

Like • Reply •  2 • Oct 9, 2015 5:21am

Raven Bo

此人评论又长又臭，翻译省略（译者注）

TPP give too much power to evil globalist over countries but forces countries to accept fair business international rule of law. China need foreign investments and only way they will get significant amount is to joining TPP.

Fake oppressive communist should never been allow to sell things in USA since communist violate human right, not democracy, pollute, corrupt, lies, they are threat, invaded, and use dirty ancient strategy of befriend and back stab later.. HOWEVER, evil greedy globalist is ULTRA powerful especially when their dirty PAC money feed both political parties and it is needed to get elected in USA. Evil greedy globalists and fake oppressive chinese communists in 1970s colluded and created virtual slavery at $0.10/hour wages. Bush lied and attacked Iraq. Rich Iraq got poor and USA poor too while globalist owns chinese oil companies and profiteered from Iraqi $10/barrel contract. Also, chinese oil companies are buying iran oil for cheap due to sanctions.

With money, fake oppressive communist got aggressive with 1000 year china dream to takeover the world. According to official Chinese media, China have "6 wars in 50 year" plan: Taiwan,Spratly Islands,Southern Tibet, Senkaku/Okinawa,Outer Mongolia,Russia

China/S Korea intensified campaign of Japan bashing with lies, hate, and distortion after Aoyama disclosed there are huge potential for gas/oil in the water around japan. Google "real7777 china communist" for details, pictures,wiki, youtube link etc. If there's any error let me know so I can fix them.

Today, there are around 200,000 abduction per year in china and 3 million labor/sex/bride slaves in china and communities are ok knowing it since it was old chinese tradition.

Mao was child molester who had many under aged virgin girls. Qing were manchu and after communist genocide manchu area became han majority similar to Tibet and Uighur are getting replaced by han. Mao had to kill millions of EDUCATED Manchu who got used to good modern life under Japan.

Google "real7777 nemoto guningtou" to find out how japanese saved ROC/Taiwan from fake oppressive communist.

Taiwan sent $200m for fukishima disaster.

China force 50% ownership and later cause trouble and steal whole business plus equipment.

Cuba was no trade list until this year even though decent frugal leader and universal health.

TPP want to make china behave. If china don't join, it will have disadvantage in trade and getting help. If it joins, it must not do things like SE china sea building. It will be forced to stop genocide at Tibet/Uighur. Of course china probably will be forced to accept taiwan as independent country.

I am here to spread the TRUTH since I hate liars. If you google my blog "real77777 wordpress" and find any error, let me know with believable web link with the proof.

Like • Reply • Oct 9, 2015 6:29am

Michael Feng

US was NEVER the largest foriegn investor of China, not even among the top3 actually, and which other country within the TPP matters as a investor for China? Not a one. On the contrary, China is the largest investor of most of the TPP member nations, so your comment are such a joke, man.

Like • Reply •  1 • 15 hrs

Raven Bo

Michael Feng USA, Japan, and other globalist will not want to finance because of things like 50% forced internal ownership and back stab and steal the rest technique etc. China is still getting ODA charity because it cannot even help its own. lol

Like • Reply • 14 hrs

Raven Bo

Michael Feng Soft WW3 started and USA will destroying Russia/China economy. Cyber war where china stole USA military/private company secrets already. Petrodollar, currency war, oil war, BRICS(brazil,russia,china,s africa),AIIB,ukraine,ISIS,Yemen

With money, fake oppressive communist got aggressive with 1000 year china dream to takeover the world. According to official Chinese media, China have "6 wars in 50 year" plan: Taiwan,Spratly Islands,Southern Tibet, Senkaku/Okinawa,Outer Mongolia,Russia

Chinese Great cannon, Assassin's Mace

China selling mind destroying illegal synthetic drug to ame...See More

Like • Reply • 14 hrs

David Le

The only WHY question I have is

Why this writer take American name instead of his/her real name , which is xi jing CHONG?

我唯一想问的问题是，为何作者起了一个美国人的名字而不用自己的真名--习近崇？

Like • Reply • Oct 9, 2015 7:10am

US Chee

David Le is a giant MORON Le Kai Shek !

David Le是大白痴--乐凯申！

Like • Reply •  4 • Oct 9, 2015 8:27am

Edward Chock

because China has it's own version of TPP, it's called "Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP)"

因为中国有自己版本的TPP，叫“亚太自由贸易区”(FTAAP)

Like • Reply • 22 hrs
Rick Gonzalez •

Adventurer at The Universe

It's designed to bypass regulations that keep corporations in check. So if there is any law that can potentially lead to profit loss for a company (environmental or minimum wage for example), that company can sue the government - at the taxpayers expense

TPP的设计是让那些公司能逃避法规的监管。当任何法律会潜在导致公司因为（例如环境或最低工资）而赔钱，公司就可以用纳税人的钱去控告政府。

Like • Reply • 21 hrs

Alan Smithee

You know why China doesn't need TPP? Because most of its members have China as their number one customer. China buys more from these countries than they buy from China. The US is not their number one customer. If Obama wants to change that it means the US trade deficit widens and more Americans lose their jobs. The fatc is Obama left out China because China was organizing its own FTA that would be the largest FTA in the world and didn't include the US. Also Obama is counting on that China doesn't want to be left out. TPP as of now is nothing new. It's a bunch smaller export dependent countries leeching off the US. TPP is all about China. It fails without China. Obama needs China to join, He just wanted to write the rules as he's been advertising so the US has access to the Chinese market.

知道为啥中国不需要TPP吗？因为对于大部分的成员国，中国是他们最大的客户，而美国不是第一大客户。如果奥巴马想改变的话，意味着美国的贸易赤字将会扩大、更多的美国人将会失去工作。事实上美国搞TPP是因为中国版的FTA将会是世界上最大的FTA协定，但是不包括美国。奥巴马其实是寄希望于中国也能参与TPP。TPP不是什么新东西，就是几个出口导向的小国依附并榨取美国。TPP意在中国，没有中国将会一事无成。奥巴马需要中国加入，奥巴马只是按照建议制定规则，以便美国可以进入中国市场。

Like • Reply •  1 • 18 hrs

Darwin Akbar •

Cambridge College

China already has existing free trade agreements with most of the members of the TPP. Among the rest, China is almost certainly their largest trading partner, and those countries (of lower income than China) couldn't sign a free trade deal with China fast enough given the chance.

中国已经与大多数的TPP成员国签订了自贸协议。对于其他的TPP成员国，中国也几乎是他们最大的贸易伙伴，那些（收入低于中国的）国家如果有机会的话肯定也会与中国尽快签订自贸协议。

The TPP might just smooth the transition from "outsourcing to China" to "outsourcing to other Asian countries", since Chinese wages have been rapidly rising, and countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines are looking to fill the void. And no, those manufacturing jobs aren't coming back, not until the poorest country on the planet have risen enough that their workers demand similar wages as US workers. To believe manufacturing jobs are returning, or the TPP might benefit US workers, is just delusional thinking.

TPP可能只是加速了“向中国外包”转向“向其他亚洲国家外包”，原因是中国人薪资快速上涨，而印尼、越南、菲律宾在寻找机会填补空白。那些制造业工作岗位不会再回来了，除非地球上其他穷国的工资都上涨到美国工人的水平。相信制造业工作岗位回归抑或TPP会造福美国工人的想法，只能是自欺欺人。

Like • Reply •  2 • 18 hrs

Michael Feng

Truth to the point.

说到点子上了。

Like • Reply • 15 hrs

Michael Feng

It will proberbly hurts the USAs industri more than it hurts China.

也许对美国工业的危害远大于对中国的危害。

Like • Reply • 15 hrs

Doug Paige •

Pagadian City

If China and Japan were to combine together and form a more powerful China, then China would have a much easier time taking over any variety of smaller countries. Of course, this may certainly need at least 10 more years, especially to combine military at the same time as technology advancement. Eventually, this more powerful China will become an overwhelming threat to America. This is exactly what happens in my screenplay titled; “The Last President” by Douglas Paige at; driveme89123yahoocom and asking only $2.5 million.

如果中国和日本合并成立一个更强大的中国，那么中国征服其他小国就更容易了。当然这要花个最少10几年的时间，特别是整合军力、科技进步。最终这个强大的中国将成为美国压倒性的威胁。这是将会发生在我的剧本里的剧情，题目：“最后的总统”；带我去89123yahoocom，只要2.5百万美元。

Like • Reply • 14 hrs

James Nippon •

Costa Mesa, California

How can you not see a880 lb gorilla in the room. Shame on Japan/USA. for some rean obama likes to BULLY CHINA . CHINA holds over $1.4 Trilions dollars US Debt

yet just WHIMPERs to the Most Dangerous and Most EVILNESSS EVIL Czar putin/SATAN who Hates the USA

你又能如何对同处一室的一只880磅大猩猩视而不见。日本/美国真不要脸。出于某些理由，奥巴马喜欢欺凌中国。中国拥有1.4万亿美债，而奥巴马对憎恨美国、最危险和最邪恶的沙皇/撒旦普京却只能啜泣。