菲律宾VS中国：中国失败不会终止国际法 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：小猫吃米线-审核者：生活中的化学------------



International law is only as valid as it is enforceable.

国际法只有在得到实施时才有有效。

If this statement were true then the upcoming ruling of the arbitral tribunal between the Philippines and China would likely be another nail in the coffin of international law in an anarchic international system where law is only another arrow in the quiver of power-hungry nations.

如果这一声明是真的，在中国和菲律宾之间，即将到来的仲裁法庭裁定可能会给国际法造成致命一击，因为在混乱的国际体系中法律不过是嗜权国家的一个工具而已。

But it is not that simple.

但是并不那么简单

In fact the case brought forward by the Philippines is about way more than the legal nature of the so-called nine-dash line or the status of the submerged rocks and reefs China mistakenly interprets as islands according to Article 121 of UNCLOS (United Nations Convention of the Law and the Sea).

事实上，菲律宾所提交的仲裁案不仅仅是为了判定所谓九段线的法律性质，也不仅仅是为了判定中国因错误理解《联合国海洋法公约》第121条而将潜水岩石和礁石当成岛屿后所形成的地位。

This fact is not changed by other claimants making the same mistake or a few countries—“convinced” by China—reasserting the legality of the island status.

这一事实不会不因其他声索国犯下同样错误或者说不会因为一些国家重复主张岛屿地位的合法性而发生改变。

In fact it is about the potential role of international law in conflict resolution and international affairs。

实际上它是关于国际法在处理冲突解决和国际事件的潜在作用。

-------------译者：生活中的化学-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Clearly there are vastly differing views concerning the role of international legal proceedings.  On the one hand as stated by the Philippine Foreign Secretary del Rosario the dispute resolution mechanisms provided for by UNCLOS “allow the weak to challenge the powerful on an equal footing.” On the other hand prominent Chinese scholar Wu Shicun argued that the arbitral case actually could exacerbate existing tensions. Furthermore China already stated that it would not adhere to the decision made by the tribunal as it does not accept its jurisdiction. But while some therefore argue that the only damage for China could be reputational this is not entirely correct. It is indeed a case in which international law is on trial but one major factor is largely unaccounted for: the impact on China’s soft power.

很明显，关于国际法律程序的作用，有截然不同的观点。一方面，菲律宾外交部长德罗萨里奥声明，《联合国海洋法公约》中的纠纷解决机制为弱小国家平起平坐地挑战强国做好准备。在另一方面，着名中国学者吴士存争论道仲裁诉讼实际上可能会恶化已有的紧张态势。此外，中国已经声明它将不会遵循由法庭作出的决定，因为它不承认法庭的司法权。但有些人因此争论中国唯一的损害可能是声誉。这不完全正确。事实上这是一起国际法正接受考验但一个主要因素大部分未加说明的案例：对中国软实力的影响。

China is on the rise economically militarily in almost all categories. Yet power does as Joseph Nye continuously points out not solely come from the hard power factors of economic or military might. In fact the ability to attract others to follow one’s lead is a vital component of true power.

中国在经济和军事几乎所有种类上增长。然而，国力就像约瑟夫奈不断指出的那样不仅仅来自经济或军事力量因素的硬实力。事实上，吸引别人跟随自己的领导的能力是真正的力量的至关重要的组成部分。


-------------译者：比木鱼-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

ko Madamosiya 毛むくじゃら
Well the EU are coming to enforce the ruling. Because their contention is if China can do this in the SCS then the rest of the contested seas even up in the Artic wll be unenforced. Its for the sake of world order. France is leading the way.

很好，欧洲即将强制执行这项判决结果。因为他们的观点是，如果对中国的判决在南海得不到执行，那么关于其它的争议海域甚至北极的判决也将得不到执行，这么做都是为了维护世界秩序。法国正在这条路上引领我们。

hank
I hope other Europeans and non-Europeans will follow suit. This should open the eyes of China.

我希望其它欧洲人和非欧洲人都支持这一诉讼，让中国好好睁开眼看看。

-------------译者：比木鱼-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

CanadianReader
I tend to agree...if the Western Allies don't take steps to end China's island building or from claiming unoccupied lands/islands it's only a matter of time before the Communists try doing the same thing in the Western Hemisphere. I don't advocate conflict...but at the same time I do advocate punishing thieves. Confronting China now would be the best course of action...first by forcing economic hardship and encouraging regime change...and if that fails to use force to render our enemy defeated.

我倾向于相信这种观点。。如果西方联盟不采取措施结束中国的岛礁建设或阻止中国对未占岛礁/领土的声索，那么共产主义分子对西方世界要做同样的事只不过是时间问题。我不提倡战争，但是与此同时，我提倡惩罚窃贼。现在对抗中国是最好的时机，首先经济制裁促使政权更迭，如果这也失败的话，那就用武力打败我们的敌人。

Critical thinking
I don't think there will actually be any enforcement esp. not from the EU. The SCS may be important to the EU but mostly on a symbolic level. No EU country or even the U.S. for that matter is going to risk military confrontation or out right war with China halfway around the globe in China's neighborhood (because that is the only way to actually make China abandon the islands it occupies).

我认为实际上不会有任何组织强制执行这项判决，尤其不会是欧洲。南海对欧洲可能很重要，但大多是在象征层面。不会有任何欧洲国家甚至是美国，会跨越半球冒着面临战争或开战的风险去中国的地盘和中国开战（因为这也是让中国放弃已占岛礁的唯一办法）。

-------------译者：magicqueen99-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Critical thinking
Yes the U.S. has been the dominant power in E Asia since end of WW2 and probably still is today. Yet despite this fact the Chinese have continued ramping up activities in SCS and don't appear to be stopping anytime soon.
Sure the U.S. can lease all the bases it wants in the PH heck why not even bases in Vietnam too. But unless the U.S. is prepared to actually fight a war against China to prevent further Chinese actions in the SCS China will keep building on its islands and might even speed up their militarization in response to growing U.S. deployments.
Talk no matter how tough or loud is still just talk unless you are actually willing to spill blood. So unless you can come up with some hard evidence that the U.S. or any other country plans on going to war against China over the SCS don't expect anything to change.

批判性思维
是啊，二战结束以来，美国一直是可能迄今仍然是东亚的主导力量。尽管事实上，中国已经加强了南海的活动，而且看起来很快就会保持长期存在。
当然美国可以菲律宾租借所有想要的基地，你妹为什么不连越南的基地也一块儿租呢。但是除非美国准备真刀真枪跟中国打一仗以阻止中国在南海进一步的行动，否则中国会不停地建岛，甚至可能为了应对美国不断增长的部署，而加快岛屿的军事化。
不管叫得多么强硬多么大声，嘴炮始终是嘴炮，除非你真的准备好要血洒疆场。所以除非你能拿出确凿的证据表明，美国或任何其他国家为了南海争端打算对中国开战，否则就别指望有任何改变。

 -------------译者：狮子座的傲脾气-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Ako Madamosiya 毛むくじゃら
Carter just told China they will take action if China tries to start building in Scarborough. Everyone is on a standstill who the first one to draw.
New PH president said he is ready to ride to Scarborough in a jetski and plant a flag.

卡特只是告诉中国，如果中国试图在黄岩岛上开建，他们将采取行动。每个人都在静观其变，等待第一个打破现状的人。
新的菲律宾总统说他准备骑水上摩托艇去黄岩岛，然后插上一杆旗帜。

Dumgaor
You need to read the latest poll about amongst Asian Countries whether leaning to China or US?

你需要读一读在亚洲国家中偏向于中国还是美国的最新民意调查报告。

dusjanbe
USSR was defeated without any direct wars between America and USSR it was "contained" to death.
I'm sure China already have war plans against the U.S. and vice versa so China won't push to hard either.

苏联在“包藏”死亡的美苏冷战中没有直接战争的状况下被打败了。
我确信中国已经准备了对抗美国的战争计划，反之亦然，所以中国也不会决心使用武力。

 -------------译者：724519871-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Critical thinking
I would say the USSR was defeated not so much because it was contained but because it overextended and overspent itself in an effort to match U.S. power on a global scale. Today it is the U.S. that is perhaps spending too much on defense at ~4% of GDP vs. China's spending of ~2% of GDP.
Yes I think you are right that both China and U.S. have war plans against each other already. However despite what the media may portray China is generally a rather cautious country that would be very unlikely to start a war esp. with a major power.
China will most likely continue to do what it has been doing with success so far. That is an island here a radar or missile battery there none of which would lead to outright war but over the course of years will change the strategic landscape significantly.
Its possible the U.S. could draw a red line at Scarborough Shoal but I don't think that will be likely. Is Scarborough Shoal really worth war with China?

我可以说苏联被击败，与其说是因为它是被孤立的，不如说是为了在全球范围内赛过美国的力量，过度扩张和过度的消耗自身导致的。今天，美国也许花了太多的的钱在防务上，GDP~4%，而中国是GDP~2%。
是的，我想你是对的，无论中国还是美国都有应对彼此的战争计划。但是无论媒体如何描述，中国是一个非常谨慎的国家，不会轻启战争，尤其是和一个大国。
中国可能继续他所成功的事。岛屿上有雷达或者导弹发射台，这些不会导致一场全面战争，但是未来一段时间，无疑将改变战略格局。
也许美国可以在斯卡伯勒浅滩划一条红线，但是我不知为了这个浅滩与中国开战是否值得。

-------------译者：mifantasy-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

David Kuo
Philippine did not sue China in the international court. What Philippine did was to request an arbitration. Of course China had the legal right to refuse to attend the arbitration. So people don't be fooled by the western anti-China propaganda. If Philippine really wanted to have "justice" then Philippine could sue instead of requested for arbitration.

菲律宾并没有在国际法庭上起诉中国，菲律宾只是申请进行一次仲裁。当然中国有合法权利拒绝出面参加这次仲裁。所以（希望）人们不要被西方人的反华宣传愚弄了。如果菲律宾真的想要“正义”，那么选择起诉中国明显好过申请仲裁。

David Kuo
Calm down. US is a vivid example about the international law. US did not comply with the rulings of the international court for multiple times. Also US even did not approved the UNCLOS in its congress. But it seems like the western world is OK about US beniviours and its soft power. As a matter of fact US soft power is backed by its military forces. 

冷静一下。如何面对国际法，美国就是一个生动的例子。美国人几乎没有遵从过国际法庭的裁决。美国国会甚至不承认联合国海洋法会议的合法性。但是西方世界默认了美国的行为和软实力。而美国软实力真正的后盾是他强大的军事力量。

China rejected to attend the arbitration that is a legal action. There is no law to enforce anyone to attend the arbitration or to accept the result of arbitration. This is not a lawsuit this is an arbitration. There is a big difference between lawsuit and arbitration.

中国拒绝参加国际仲裁是他的合法行为。没有哪一条法律能强迫任何人参加仲裁或者接受仲裁结果。这是一个仲裁而非诉讼案，这两者之间有很大的不同。

-------------译者：狮子座的傲脾气-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Ako Madamosiya 毛むくじゃら
There is only one at the top. Everybody else is second fiddle. It will be a while before you can dislodge him.
US Australia Japan India most ASEAN and now EU. They are all committed to enforce and uphold a legal and binding decision. What you say China and the rest of its trolls?

只有一个人能位处顶端，其他人都是二流的。这将需要一段时间才能赶走他。
美国、澳大利亚、日本、印度、大多数东盟国家和欧盟，他们都致力于实施和维护法律与有约束力的决定。你说什么中国和它的喷子？

Thompson For Prez
MKT Thompson For President Independent...It is not the Philippines up against China...It is China up against the US NATO the Philippines Vietnam and Japan. To name just a few. China is in for a rude awakening.

MKT汤普森独立总统（不知道这是什么鬼）...这不是菲律宾对抗中国...这是中国对抗美国、北约、菲律宾、越南和日本，只举几个例子。中国正在猛然醒悟中。

Ako Madamosiya 毛むくじゃら
EU led by France has just thrown themselves into the mix.

法国领导下的欧盟也刚刚加入到这个阵营中来了。

-------------译者：狮子座的傲脾气-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Dumgaor
France will study the matter before they decide and they will find a big scam behind the arbitration.

他们决定之前，法国将会研究这个问题，然后就会发现仲裁后面的大骗局。

Ako Madamosiya 毛むくじゃら
The scam is already out in the open. It's the Nine Dash Line Scam. China can't defend it didly. That is why it won't show up in court. It will be shredded into pieces by the Tribunal ruling. 
Obviously you sound more like a cyber troll working for the motherland.

骗局已经被公开出来了，就是九段线骗局。中国不能对她的所作所为进行辩护。这就是为什么她没有出现在法庭。它将会被法庭的判决切成碎片。
很显然你更像是个为中国大陆工作的网络喷子（译者注：cyber troll指在互联网论坛中故意扰乱话题、蓄意挑起纷争的人）。

Dumgaor
Stop spreading rumor. You US propaganda which has no respect for International Laws.

停止散布谣言。你们美国的宣传没有对国际法的一丝尊重。

-------------译者：布拉格鸽子蛋-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Ako Madamosiya 毛むくじゃら
No respect for international law? Who is that China? Precisely why we are waiting for the International Tribunal to make a decision on the Nine Dash Line. If you follow closely the Tribunal's responses you will see that it does not even recognize the Nine Dash Line. Why? It is illegal! China and its populace need to understand that there is a certain world order. Hello!!!! And in the South China Sea Dispute it threads its own water.
This is not about the USA. Its about respect for International Laws dingdong.

不尊重国际法？是谁，中国吗？这正是我们等待国际法庭对九段线做出裁决的原因。如果你密切关注法庭的回应，你就会发现法庭甚至不承认九段线！为什么？因为那是非法的！中国和她的人民需要了解，这个世界是有秩序的。你好！！南海争端中将其划入自家海域（的家伙）。
这与美国无关。这关乎与对国际法律的尊重。

Dumgaor
I've been followed all along and see US and her allies are cooking the results.

我一直在跟进这件事，然后发现这结果是美国和她的盟友搅出来的。

-------------译者：狮子座的傲脾气-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Ako Madamosiya 毛むくじゃら
I don't think there is even an ounce of irregularity in the Tribunals decision. It is all based on what's presented them. Frankly China is lucky that the Tribunal even hear media responses from China.

我不认为法庭的判决有任何一丝的不公。判决结果都是基于他们所呈递的材料。讲真，中国是幸运的，法庭甚至听到了来自中国媒体的回应。

Gordon Pasha
The problem with this line of argument is that soft power is a nice to have. But when push comes to shove the only thing that counts is hard power.
That's why to quote Thucydides the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.

在九段线争论的问题上有软实力是很不错的。但在最后关头唯一的事情就是看你拳头有多大。
这就是为什么强者做他们所想做的而弱者承受他们所必须承受的--引自修西得底斯（译者注：古希腊哲学家）。