美国有一个机会来击退中国的南海战略 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：magicqueen99-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



Ahead of the looming International Tribunal ruling on the Philippine-initiated arbitration case against China’s contested maritime sovereignty claims in the South China Sea (SCS) Chinese diplomats and government officials are conducting an aggressive PR campaign throughout the region and across the globe to influence world opinion and present China and its legal and political positions as correct through the publication of various comments by sympathetic world leaders legal scholars and international relations experts. They want to highlight the positive aspects of Beijing’s maritime security comportment and accentuate the benevolent features of its growing presence in the SCS while peddling the same familiar public-diplomacy themes—the United States as the destabilizing aggressor; China as the virtuous but hapless victim; and the source of all regional trouble as Washington’s arm-twisting of its allies and partners in Manila Hanoi and Kuala Lumpur—and steadily messaging that it does not recognize the jurisdiction and authority of the International Tribunal of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at the Hague to rule in this case. All in all this PR shift may be part of a larger adjustment by Beijing of its assertive actions in the SCS in response to the mounting unfavorable geopolitical conditions and regional trends. If so what does the PR shift reveal about Beijing’s maritime strategy and more importantly what can Washington do to shape and influence that evolving strategy?

在即将到来的国际法庭对由菲律宾发起的针对中国在南海有争议的海上主权索赔案的裁决做出之前，中国外交官和政府官员正在整个地区和全球各地进行一项积极的公关活动：通过对中国有好感的世界领导人、法律学者和国际关系专家发表各种评论，以影响世界舆论，并展示中国以及它的法律与政治立场是正确的。他们想突出北京的海上安全行为的积极方面，强调其在南海日益频繁现身时友善的特点，并且兜售同样为世人熟悉的公共外交的主题----美国是造成不稳定的侵略者；中国是善良而不幸的受害者；以及造成地区所有麻烦的根源：华盛顿在马尼拉、河内和吉隆坡强迫其盟友和伙伴服从自己----并向外界持续释放这样的信息：中国不会承认设于海牙的常设仲裁法院下的国际法庭审理本案的管辖权和权威性。概言之，这一公关行为可能是北京在南海转向强硬行为的更大调整的一部分，以应对越来越多的不利的地缘政治条件和区域趋势。如果是这样的话，公关重点的转移揭示了北京会采取什么样的的海洋战略，更重要的是，华盛顿能采取什么行动来左右和影响不断调整的战略？


-------------译者：小猫吃米线-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

T Myths Debunked
The US need only defend freedom of navigation and treaty allies both of which it is doing.

美国只需保卫航行自由和盟友安全，而这正是美国正在做的事情。

imm1
Flying spy plane at China coastal is also defending freedom? Pls behave itself b4 preaching to others.

在中国海岸线飞行侦察机同样是捍卫自由吗？在对别人说教之前先管好自己吧。

RT Myths Debunked
There's nothing wrong with a spyplane flying in international airspace. 
Seems far less invasive than the cyberwar waged against the US especially US companies by the CCP to steal.

在国际空域飞行侦察机完全没问题，这比起中国对美国发起的网络战尤其是针对美国企业的网络窃取好多了。

 -------------译者：小猫吃米线-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

imm1
Snowden had replied your criticisms.

斯诺登回复的你的评论

DRP8654
flying spy plane at China coastal blah blah blah...
It's clear you have the intelligence of a 3 year old.

在中国海岸飞行侦察机
你活在上个世纪吧

Thomas Fung
It seems to this person that the best step that the US could take regardless of The South or East China sea situations would be for the Senate to ratify UNCLOS. The US navy wishes this; every president since Reagan has endorsed it; yet Republican Senators continue to block ratification.
Hence the curious reversal of roles wherein the Democratic Party is slowly emerging as the most reliable party choice when it comes to US national defense.

在此人看来，美国最好的举措是不顾中国东海和南海的情况让参议院通过《联合国海洋法公约》。美国海军希望如此；自里根总统以来的每个总统也赞成如此；而共和党参议员却一直阻挠通过。因此这里面产生了神奇的角色转换，在涉及美国国防的问题上 ，民主党渐渐的成为了最可靠的政党。

-------------译者：青盆edu-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

PlsGetReal
I believe that a nuclear war is due any time. And it is about time.
Of course there will be no winners but at least US will learn a bitter lesson.
China is under no illusion what the aftermath of a Sino-American war would look like...
Their generals have already said this back in 2005..

我认为一场核战争是随时都可能发生的。并且，似乎最近就会发生。
当然最后没有人会是真正的赢家，但是至少美国会得到一个惨痛的教训。
中国对中美之间爆发一场大战的后果没有太多的幻想。
他们的将领在2005年就已经表达了这一观点。

 -------------译者：小猫吃米线-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

DRP8654
The behavior being displayed has been encountered through out history.When The Hague announces that the aggressor is indeed in violation and has lied! It's time to take off these gloves. They want to swim in the big Ocean treat them like everyone else. We have been too kind to this ungrateful parasite.We have built a coalition. Give the aggressor 10 days to vacate! If they try to reinforce in anyway blind them & cut the head off.Destroy there ability to defend themselves which is not very hard. Look what Rand had to say when they conducted their survey.Their military is still in the minor leagues.A year later the world will be a better place .

中国的展示行为贯穿了整个历史。当海牙宣告，入侵者的的确违法，撒谎，是时候起来反抗了，他们想游泳整个太平洋。我们过去对这些讨厌的蟑螂太仁慈了。我们要建立同盟。给入侵者一个10天期限的撤离期，如果他们继续加强建设，杀死他们。 摧毁他们的易如反掌。看看兰德公司的调查。他们的军事实力实际上仍然很弱小。一年后世界会变得美好。

-------------译者：q984q994-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Benny
China is not Iraq nor Afghanistan. For all the US bravado to show off to it's client statesChina will not be intimidated.

中国既不是伊拉克也不是阿富汗。美国虚张声势给自己的附庸国看，中国是不会被吓到的。

britbob
No delimitation between states with opposite or adjacent coasts may be affected unilaterally by one of those states. For some interesting judgments on territorial seas and to gain an understanding as to how the world court deals with such disputes:
https://www.academia.edu/10574...

两国之间没有明确界定的海域可能会单方面的受到其中一方的影响。要想查看有趣的领海判决以及想了解世界法庭如何处理这类争议的话，请看以下链接：https://www.academia.edu/10574...

-------------译者：magicqueen99-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Ferdy Marcos
Talking to China is a fruitless endeavor when China think it won't achieve it's projected plans.
Flirting with flaws is a waste of time Captain Tuan N. Pham.
Laws are made and law should be followed. You flirt then you break a law. If Laws are made not to be followed then SCRAP the Law.
China has not respected any International Law or obligations/commitments it GAIN to fool the Law that's how they look at it.

当中国人认为没有达到预定计划时，与其进行任何对话都是徒劳的努力。
戏弄法律是浪费时间----范遵机长
法律是制定出来的，必须被遵守。你戏弄法律就违法了。如果制定出了法律又不被遵守，那就废除法律吧。
中国不尊重任何国际法或者义务/承诺，他们戏弄法律从中获益，这就是他们对待法律的态度。

Benny
US respects none except when it crafts them.

美国除了自己精心设计出来的东西，别的什么都不尊重。

-------------译者：q984q994-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Ferdy Marcos
Perhaps. 
But not on this scale where a large area of sea is claim to the detrimental of the International Communities interest. That's the big difference which is way BEYOND reasons.

也许吧。
但是这么大规模的还真是少见，声称大片海域是自己的，这有害于国际社会的利益。这是巨大差异，所以让人难以接受。

AlexJW
The US is flying and sailing through international waters and defending allies. 
Piles of CCP sand change nothing until they're ready to shoot down a plane or sink a ship. 
And then it's the end of the CCP which would be a great thing for China of course in the long term however bad for the region short term.

美国是通过公海飞行和航行并且保护着盟友。
届时中共将被终结，长远来看这对中国来说是好事，不论短期来看多么的不利于该地区。
然后中共的结束对于中国当然长期的成为一个伟大的事情，然而对于该地区却是短期的不利。