北京的观点：中美之间的“修昔底德陷阱” [美国媒体]

-------------译者：feihu2000-审核者：梁佳佳龙------------



“It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable.” —Thucydides

“雅典的崛起导致斯巴达心生恐惧，所以战争变得不可避免”——修昔底德

China’s rising comes as the most pronounced but complicated feature of the twenty-first century. In the past few years people over the world especially in the Asia-Pacific region have witnessed increasing tensions in U.S.-Chinese relations from all levels and in a wide range of areas. Graham Allison a world-famous expert on international security and also the founding dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University was the first person to combine the concept of the “Thucydides Trap” with the analysis of China’s ongoing rise with recent commentaries published in global influential newspapers and websites such as the Financial Times the New York Times and the Atlantic. In those articles he warned that over the past five hundred years of human history twelve of all sixteen cases of global tensions resulted in shooting wars. What’s more he argued that a Thucydides trap has arisen between the United States and China in the western Pacific in recent years. Thereafter some world-class masters including Zheng Yongnian Robert Zoellick Zbigniew Brzezinski Patrick Porter and T. J. Pempel followed in using this popular term when talking about U.S.-Chinese relations today or in the years ahead regardless of their personal attitudes toward such a pessimistic term.

中国的崛起是21世纪最显着也是最复杂的特点。在过去的几年里全世界的人们特别是亚太地区的人们见证了在各种层级和广度上的日渐紧张的中美关系。格雷厄姆·艾利森是闻名世界的国际安全专家，也是哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院的创始院长，他是将“修昔底德陷阱”概念同中国持续崛起之分析相结合的第一人，最近他在全球富有影响力的报纸和网站上发表了文章，包括英国《金融时报》《纽约时报》和《大西洋月刊》。在这些文章中他警告说在过去的五百年里人类历史的16例全球紧张局势中的12例导致相互敌对的战争。更重要的是他认为近年来美国和中国之间在西太平洋地区已经发生了修昔底德陷阱。在此之后一些世界级的大师包括郑永年、罗伯特R26;佐利克(Robert Zoellick)、布热津斯基、帕特里克·波特和t . j . Pempel当谈论到今日或未来几年的中美关系都使用这个流行的词汇，而不顾他们本人对这个悲观词汇的态度。


-------------译者：Elisaday-审核者：梁佳佳龙------------

ashleyhk R26; 21 hours ago
"For China’s part its actions are justifiable to defend its territorial integrity without any room for retreat when considering surging public opinion and the very high political audience cost that the Chinese government has suffered."

“在中国来讲，它捍卫自己领土完整的行为是有理有据的、没有任何商量余地的，考虑到汹涌的民意和中国政府面临的极端高昂的政治观众成本。”

1. The 9 dash line is not accepted by any other country or international body. . It is an unashamed imperialistic claim. The territories claimed are not China's and never have been.

1、九段线并未获得任何其他国家或国际机构的承认…这是个恬不知耻的帝国主义说法。这些领地现在不是中国的，从前也不是。

2. Chinese public opinion is totally controlled by the CCP. Just this weekend CCTV has been full of misleading not to say lying statements on the SCS situation and the issues involved.

2、中国民众的意见完全遭到了GCD的操纵。就在本周末，CCTV上充斥着关于南海局势及其有关问题的误导性言论、即使不是谎话连篇。

This whole article is full of lies and distortions.

整篇文章全是谎言和扭曲事实。

At least though he does concede that it is an imperial project.

不过至少他承认这是一项至高无上（帝国的）事业。

If this is a "reasonable and rational" view from the CCP conflict if not war is inevitable

如果这就是GCD“理性而客观的”观点，那么冲突甚至是战争则无可避免。

 -------------译者：Elisaday-审核者：梁佳佳龙------------

Brux  ashleyhk R26; 18 hours ago
I tend to agree with you but how do you know our system is not lying as well? I know there are very many lies at the base of US mythology and though China may be worse the US and West has had a longer and more destructive history in the world so far with the other countries.

我倾向同意你的看法，但你又怎么知道我们的政府没对我们撒谎呢？我知道关于美国的神话虚饰了太多谎言，尽管中国可能更糟，但美国和西方世界在世界范围内跟其他国家处理关系时拥有更加长久的具破坏性的历史。
 
Wen-Lung Wang  Brux R26; 2 hours ago
So true

赤裸裸的事实 
 
Brux  Wen-Lung Wang R26; an hour ago
But there is the fact that the the US and the West has a huge history of openness and freedom of speech and expression that China has never had. That is the significant difference that shows a pathology to China that is more dangerous to the world not to mention their comparative homogeneous racial composition. The world is right to be suspicious of China and all the other Asian countries know this as well.

但有一点你得承认，美国和西方拥有长久的言论自由坦率表达的历史，而中国从未有过。这个显着性差异显示出一个迹象：中国对世界更具有危险性，更不要说他们相当同质化的种族结构。世界应该对中国保持警惕，所有其他亚洲国家都明白这一点。

 -------------译者：feihu2000-审核者：梁佳佳龙------------

Zsari Maxim  ashleyhk R26; 7 hours ago
The 9 dash line was adopted from the 11 dash line published in 1946. Countries including the US Britain France Germany all have at one point or another reprinted the dash lines on their map. You can claim how the CCP lies about everything but it is not a coincidence that ROC on Taiwan claims the exact same area in the SCS. Or are you going to rant about how they lied about everything as well?

 9段线来源于1946年出版的11段线，包括美国英国法国德国的众多国家的地图或是再版的都使用9段线这一观点.你可以声称这是中共谎言但它并不是一个巧合在台湾中华民国声称在南中国海有相同的区域主权要求。或者你打算激昂地讲述他们谎报了一切吗?
 
wei  ashleyhk R26; 9 hours ago
not accepted by any other country because such other country did not exist before 1946 they were all slaves to the far outsider.

这样的声明不被任何其他国家接受因为在1946年之前这些国家都是不存在的，因为当时他们都还是外国人的奴隶。
 
Wen-Lung Wang  wei R26; 2 hours ago
Exactly

完全正确!

-------------译者：feihu2000-审核者：梁佳佳龙------------

Rogers R26; 15 hours ago
Why the United States send its arcraft carriers warships and nuclear bombers into China's back garden? If Chinese send its warships and nuclear bombers into the sea waters nearby Florida what do the United States may react?

 为什么美国派遣航母军舰和核轰炸机进入中国的后花园?如果中国派军舰和核轰炸机进入佛罗里达州附近的海域美国可能有何反应呢?
 
ApqIA  Rogers R26; 15 hours ago
Amen.

 阿门

Let's think about China declaring itself a "Pacific power" and interpreting that as a license to supervise what the US does off its west coast and the effects it has on Latin America.

让我们想象一下中国宣称自己是太平洋国家，并因此认为自己有权监管美国在自己西海岸的活动及其对拉丁美洲的影响。
 
Maybe Chile Mexico and Ecuador would respond favorably to arms and "security"measures offered by China top guarantee them "freedom of decision making" from their aggressive northern neighbor? A Chinese air base maybe? permanent nuclear-armed patrols?

也许墨西哥智利和厄瓜多尔会积极回应中国提供的武器和“安全”措施上保证他们决策的“自由”以避免被咄咄逼人的北方邻居压迫吗?会有中国的空军基地?会有永久的拥有核武器的巡逻吗?

 -------------译者：Elisaday-审核者：梁佳佳龙------------

Roy Anderson  Rogers R26; 10 hours ago
First...It is not "China's back garden". It does not belong to China. That s like asking why your enemy across town keeps visiting his friends who live behind you and saying that he is intruding into your "back garden" whenever he visits his friends who live and own the land behind yours.

首先，这不是‘中国的后花园。’它不属于中国。就好像在质疑你的敌人为什么老是穿过镇子拜访他住在你家后面的朋友，他拜访的朋友住在并拥有你家后面的土地，你却非要说他在骚扰你家‘后花园’。
 
Second... China has sent her Naval vessels sailing RIGHT INTO the territorial waters of the USA when they sailed into Alaska waters and they were not warned off and threatened by American planes or forces. So... the fact is that CHina has and to sail into ACTUAl American waters. And in the case of the USA sailing through the South China Sea the USA is not even going into China's legal waters.

第二，中国有派遣海军舰艇长、驱、直、入美国领海，他们驶入了阿拉斯加水域，并未被美军飞机或武装力量告诫驱赶或是威胁。所以，事实是中国曾经并且长期侵入美国实际海域。将心比心，美国行驶在南中国海时，美国都没有进入中国的合法水域呢。
 
Third... China continuously sails into the Arctic where it has no business whatsoever. Does Canada complain? The arctic will soon become a vital trade passage and you don't see the countries backing onto the arctic trying to claim it as their own.

第三，中国持续不断驶入北极圈内无涉生意往来的地方。加拿大有抱怨过吗？北冰洋附近很快就会成为一条至关重要的商业通道，你也没有看到北极圈附近的国家试图声称那是他们自己家的呀。
 
China's erratic and criminal acts in the South China Sea are indefensible. The claims are ridiculous the lies are irritating at best and the activities will potentially result in the deaths of millions if not billions of people and set the world back decades as a result of Emperor Xi's desires to become the ruler of the world.

中国在南中国海的反复无常和犯罪行径完全无法自圆其说。他们的领海要求是荒谬的、令人气愤的谎言，这些行为有可能会导致数以百万甚至数以亿计的人死于非命，让整个世界倒退几十年，全都因为习帝想要达成统治世界的野望。

 -------------译者：Elisaday-审核者：梁佳佳龙------------
 
RT Myths Debunked R26; 14 hours ago
The Thucydides "trap" isn't analogous anyway because the United States has done everything it possibly could for the last 45 years to help mainland China.

然而事态与修昔底德“陷阱”并无可比拟之处，因为美利坚在过去的45年内尽自己一切力量不遗余力地帮助了中国大陆。

The United States buried the hatchet after mainland China took part in the invasion of South Korea and killed many Americans a mere 20 years later.

美国在中国大陆参与侵略南韩的战争并屠杀无数美国人仅仅二十年后就与其尽释前嫌。
 
United States spent the 1980s massively growing the trade relationship.

美国在八十年代大规模地发展了对中贸易关系。

The United States spent the 1990s cheerleading mainland China's entrance into the WTO.

美国在九十年代鼓励并支持中国大陆加入了WTO。

The United States has been educating millions of Chinese although most of them choose to stay in the US for obvious reasons.

美国帮助中国培养了数百万人才，然而其中绝大多数都选择留在了美国，原因显而易见。

Steve Smith  RT Myths Debunked R26; 7 hours ago
America did not bury anything out of the goodness of its heart. They did it to prevent China from slipping completely into the USSR' sphere of influence. It was all politics..

美国才没有因为大发慈悲做过任何事情。他们只是想阻止中国全完倒向苏维埃的影响范围。只不过是政治博弈而已……

 -------------译者：小猫吃米线-审核者：梁佳佳龙------------

AlexJW  Steve Smith R26; 3 hours ago
If this was 1976 you'd be right. However 35 years of incredible help and support to join the international system and to grow contradicts you

 如果这是1976年你是对的然而35年的援助和支持加入国际体系换来了白眼狼
 
-------------译者：Elisaday-审核者：梁佳佳龙------------
 
Lichdar  tteng R26; 5 hours ago
Incorrect. The US cannot afford a war at all anymore - after trillions of dollars spent in other adventuring wars and already pretty struggling economically a war with a peer nation will plunge the entire world into a depression. China might be willing to accept that; the US will not.

不是这样的。美国再也无法承担另一场战争了—— 在将亿万美元花费在了其他冒险的战争行为上后，经济上已经捉襟见肘。再与一个对等国家进行战争将把整个世界拉入泥沼。中国也许不介意这样；美国可不行。
 
tteng  Lichdar R26; 5 hours ago
You're making one very dangerous assumption: that is to assume what the other guy can (or will) do.
The US since 2001 has a habit of fight first then figure out how to end it (and not very good at it figuring out). China's statecraft might be to figure out what the endgame is then decide its foreign policy course. The track record of the US (since 2001) was the other way around.

你做了一个非常危险的假设：假定其他人能够（或愿意）做什么。
美国自2001年来已经惯于首先发动战争，然后再慢慢想办法结束战争（在这方面实在不太擅长）。中国的政策可能是先估计战争末期的大局，然后决定其外交政策。按美国的记录（自2001年来）来看，却是恰恰相反。

-------------译者：feihu2000-审核者：梁佳佳龙------------

Lichdar  tteng R26; 4 hours ago
Well we can all play with economic destitution and possibly nuclear war then.

 好吧我们可以实施经济制裁或可能的核战争.
 
tteng  Lichdar R26; 4 hours ago
Are you chest-thumping? or actually accepting 'end of China-rejuvenation or worse its death & destruction in a nuke exchange given what China has achieved so far and to throw all that away' as an endgame option?

你是愤青吗? 或者实际上你认为“考虑到中国目前所取得的成就，为了摧毁中国的成就，可以发起核战争，从而终结中国的复兴，或者更糟糕的是毁灭和灭亡中国”是最终选项？
 
Lichdar  tteng R26; 4 hours ago
I'm just musing on that as an endgame option assuming that everyone remains inflexible which seems likely.

我之所以会思考这个选项，是因为我假设到双方可能依然会那么顽固。

-------------译者：feihu2000-审核者：梁佳佳龙------------

tteng  Lichdar R26; 3 hours ago
Let me re-phrase what you said.

让我利用你所说的。

You are musing the fact that if China chooses to be inflexible (which China has control over its own policy) China-rejuvenation can end (or worse die) if the US remains inflexible (which China has no control over).

所以你思考的事实是如果中国选择顽固（中国可以掌控自己的政策）以及美国也保持顽固的话（中国无法掌控美国的政策），那么中国的复兴就终结了（或者更糟糕的情况是中国灭亡了）。

(the following is mine logic wise)

(以下是我的逻辑思考)

Therefore to keep China-rejuvenation on track it is best China chooses to be flexible (since it is much easier to adjust ones' own policy than to change another's).

因此为了让中国继续复兴下去，中国最好不要那么顽固，要灵活点（因为调整自己的政策比改变他国的政策来得容易）。

-------------译者：Elisaday-审核者：梁佳佳龙------------

jhercule R26; 11 hours ago
The only way to deal with a problem known by the Americans is by force and yet the Chinese is ignoring the threat from the U.S. This makes Americans desperate and may indeed go ballistic. Chinese have long historypatience and endurance and won't take no for an answer. People lacking of imagination like Ash Carter and Harry Harris may start WW3. Such people should not be entrusted with critical posts. But I guess it is not avoidable. Just look at the support of Trump...

美国人懂得的唯一解决麻烦的途径就是凭借武力，然而中国却对来自美国的威胁置之不理。这让美国人不顾一切了，而且可能真的会暴跳如雷。中国许久以来都拥有足够的忍耐心和包容力，不会接受否定的回答。像阿什顿·灰灰·卡特、哈里·哈利斯这样缺乏想象力的人会开启三战的。不该委任这种人占据危险性岗位。不过我想这是无可避免的。就看看有多少人支持川普吧……