中国的长期战略：合作，竞争，避免冲突 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：magicqueen99-审核者：惊呆小伙伴------------



There is a natural tendency to focus on the crisis of the moment and in the case of China this has become the South China Sea. The U.S. and China's neighbors also however need to look at China's overall strategy and goals and to what is likely to be a set of far broader challenges that will shape Asian and Pacific security over at least the next quarter century.

人们出于本能会更关注当下的危机，在中国的情形下眼前的危机就是南海。美国和中国的邻国也需要审视中国的总体战略和目标，以及至少在下一个25年里会决定亚太地区安全的远比南海问题更广泛的一系列挑战会是什么。

China is emerging as a major global power after centuries of outside attack invasion and exploitation from the first Opium War in 1839 to Deng Xiaoping's decision to adopt the major economic reforms that have allowed China to develop one of the world largest and most competitive economies. Chinese strategists may see China's growing military power and challenge to the U.S. and neighboring states as both defensive and a reaction to what some call centuries of humiliation. They also see the need for caution the necessity for China to avoid direct confrontation with the U.S. until its forces are fully ready to rely on limited advances using asymmetric means like fortifying offshore reefs and emerge securely as the key power in Asia without any serious conflict.

中国正在成为一个主要的全球大国，经过自1839年的第一次鸦片战争开始的数世纪的外来攻击入侵和剥削，直到邓小平的决定进行重大的经济改革，使得中国发展成为世界上最大和最具竞争力的经济体之一。中国战略家们也许会认识到兼具防御和对所谓百年屈辱的反击功能的中国日益增长的军事力量和对美国及其邻国的挑战。他们也会认识到需要警告中国在依靠微弱的优势采取非对称手段比如加强离岸岛礁建设全做好军事准备之前，避免与美国发生直接冲突，并且作为亚洲的主要大国在不发生任何严重冲突的情况下安全地崛起。

-------------译者：magicqueen99-审核者：惊呆小伙伴------------

The problem for China – and all the other states affected by its rise – is that there is no clear way to predict how peaceful China's rise will be how far China will go and the end result in changing the balance of power in Asia the Pacific and the global economy. These challenges and uncertainties also create a clear need for China to use its declared strategy as a political tool and to do so with care. All nations use their declared military strategies and policies as a form of political leverage but China has even more incentive than most.

对于中国的----以及其他受其崛起影响的国家----来说，问题是目前还没有明确的方法来预测中国的崛起会有多平静，中国将会走多远，以及导致亚太地区的权力平衡和全球经济的变化的最终结果。这些挑战和不确定性也创造了一种中国使用其宣布的战略作为政治工具并谨慎照办的明确需要。所有的国家都使用他们宣称的军事战略和政策作为政治杠杆的一种形式，但中国比大多数国家更有动力。


-------------译者：724519871-审核者：惊呆小伙伴------------

Taishanese
Outside observers tend to tie China's current military expenditures and military efforts to its' past humiliations. But really what's happening is no different than what is happening in the US when some Americans are trying to increase US military budget and that is to remind lawmakers of the world that they live in and many times raising up the China threat (even though it is a false claim).

外部观察者倾向于将中国现在的军费开支与过去军事上饱受屈辱的事情况联系起来，其实这和美国人要求增加美国军费如出一辙，目的就是提醒自己的立法者这个世界有多乱，所以某些美国人才多次提及中国威胁（尽管这是一个错误的说法）。

For China her situation is simply more urgent. There are those within China who understand the importance of military reform and military modernization. As the author has stated China has an economy that far exceeds its' military. So there are those in China that are trying to get the rest of the country to continue the push for military modernization.

而中国所面临的局势更加紧迫。一些中国人理解军队改革和军队现代化重要性。作者也指明了中国经济远超其军事。所以某些中国人在极力说服剩余中国人继续对军事进行现代化。

And China's argument to fear the US is actually a much more legitimate argument than the US to fear China.
China's goal is to merely modernize it's military so that no outside power can push it around. The US goal of maintaining its large military expenditure (by far the largest in the world) is so that they can adequately project power anywhere in the world.
And finally a large part of the tensions between the US and China is due to an outdated Western paradigm on who should have power. China is four times the population of the US. China is not demanding to have four times the influence of the US. But it is insisting some level of parity. But in doing so it goes up against a Western paradigm.

中国担忧美国比美国担忧中国更合理。
中国的目标仅仅是军事现代化，不让外部力量干涉。美国的目标是维持庞大的军事开支（目前全球最大）确保他们能够足够向世界投送力量。
最后美中之间的紧张还源于旧的西方模式-谁应该拥有力量。中国的人口虽然是美国的四倍，但中国并没有要求获得美国4倍的影响力。中国坚持形成某种水平的对等。但是这么一来就挑战了旧的西方范式。

-------------译者：724519871-审核者：惊呆小伙伴------------

ting_m_1999
Avoiding conflict China doesn't mean submission to foreign demands. but keep the conflict instigated by foreign nations in check.from happening.

避免冲突并不意味着中国向外国屈服。而是控制外国煽动的冲突或者避免这类冲突的发生。

Bob Burns
Go Greater China!

 大中华前进吧 ！

Elvis
Whether China displaces the United States as the leading power in the Far East is dependent not on the United States but on China.
If China does continue to "rise" as I expect then sooner or later during the first half of this century they will achieve primacy and perhaps dominance over the Far East. Nothing we do whether increasing the number of forward deployed forces in the region or strengthening our regional alliances and partnerships will prevent that from occurring. China's economic size the size of their armed forces geographical size & proximity and rapid closing of the technological gap will make this an almost sure thing.
If China is forced to turn inward due to economic and/or social difficulties or worse collapses then said discussion is moot. Best case scenario for its neighbors in such a case is that state does not collapse but it's attention and resources are consumed keeping internal stability & the CCP in power which will mean the continuation of American primacy in the Far East. The other possibility is collapse which would destabilize the Far East with waves of millions of Chinese refugees fleeing civil war and / or warlordism which likely will necessitate an American or UN intervention to stem the flow of refugees secure the nukes and stop the fighting from crossing the frontiers. Which will likely pull us into a  quagmire of epic proportions.

中国是否取代美国成为远东的领导力量不取决美国，而是中国。
如果中国继续“崛起”，按照我的预测，他们迟早会本世纪前50年获得首要位置，也许会支配远东。这与我们是否提升该区域前沿力量部署，或者是加强我们区域内的盟友都没有关系，这些都不能阻止它的发生。中国的经济规模，军队规模，国土规模或者不断接近、快速缩小的技术差距让其成为现实。
如果中国因为经济和社会出现问题或者出现崩溃而将重心转向内部，那么以上的讨论就没有实际意义。对于他的邻居而言，这个国家不出现崩溃，而是他的注意力和资源都放在保持内部稳定或者共产党权力上，就是最好的情况，这也意味者美国将在远东继续他的领导地位。另外的可能性是崩溃，将会使远东地区不稳定，成千上万的中国难民逃离内战或者军阀混战，这将需要美国或者联合国介入，阻止难民流动，确保核武器安全，阻止边境上的冲突。这将会把我们置于巨大的泥淖之中。

-------------译者：龙腾翻译总管-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Bob Burns
Collapse/chaos more likely in US. Doubtful China will take in the resultant refugees

崩溃和混乱更可能发生在美国。我觉得中国不会接收美国难民的。

Art Chen
There were no or minimum refugees from China during the Culture Revolution a much worse situation than any present scenario. And China did not collapse. U.S. China experts need to re-exam their prejudices.

比起现在的情形，文革期间严重多了，可那时中国也没有难民或者说只有最低数量的难民产生。而当时中国也没有崩溃。美国的中国问题专家需要重新审视自己的偏见。

karl
Collapse of China. If so the world would lose a huge market jobs and cash flow for Boeing Apple MS NYEX and many many more would be drastically dragged down. While US armed forces'd win a grand war without down to earth fighting it 'd immediately be forced to cut its budget by one half at least to fund the national welfare program repair so many highways and airports. For floods of freedom seekers half a billion'd not be a wild guess the Late Deng had long before warned if America and its alliances'd make trouble he could have let 2 hundred million west-minded guys go free and see whether America could cope with the situation. LOL.

中国崩溃。假如这样的话，世界将会失去一个巨大的市场，就业以及现金流动，波音和苹果等许多许多的公司将会被拖累。虽然美军不用实际打斗就可以赢得这场大战，但是其预算将被减半以支持国家福利项目，修缮国内的公路和机场。还有5亿左右的自由寻求者将来美国，这不是胡乱猜想，以故的邓小平早就警告如果美国及其盟友制造麻烦，他将让2亿西方思维的中国人自由，看看美国能不能应对这个情况。哈哈。

-------------译者：724519871-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

dagger906
Most important of all your 401k value will evaporate. Kiss your retirement goodbye.

重要的是，你的401k（美国养老保险制度）价值将会蒸发。 向退休吻别吧。

jessie anderson
My 0.2 cents:
China's growth in the next few years (not decade) will continue its 
logarithmic pace especially in math physics and other scientific fields. These
progresses will fuel both industrial and military innovations. The strongest edge in
China's R/D domains are the human capital. It is both in quantity and quality.
Simply glance over what they did in recent years should make it clear on the
caliber and speed they had mastered in high tech applications.
The global power balance will no longer depends on merely military strength
because new tech can alter the definition of military power rapidly. Many
weapon systems can become obsolete overnight and that is a biggest threat for
current military power like US.
As time goes by Tony Cordesman's thesis will also diminish in its validity due
to the shifting in the balance of tech dominance. US clearly in a deep
disadvantage in this regard because of the declining in education achievements.
More people will be in fast food and sports business and less and less in high
tech sector. It is a death spiral for US innovation's future. Just look what US
recent crown jewels of high tech: FB GoogleTwitter Netflix etc. These are
not high tech items; these are just computer programming products nothing worth
bragging about.

中国未来几年将会持续对数的增长节奏（也不一定），特别是在数学、物理和其他科学领域。这些进步将会激发工业和军事领域的创新。中国的最大优势是人力资本。无论是在数量上还是质量上。只要简单看看他们最近这些年做法，就可以清晰的了解在水准和速度上他们已经实现了高科技的应用。
世界力量的平衡不仅仅取决于军事力量，因为新的科技急速改变了军事力量的定义。许多武器系统一夜之间被淘汰，这对现在的军事强国美国来说是一个巨大的挑战。
随着时间的推移，安东尼科德斯曼的分析的有效性将会降低，因为技术优势的平衡发生了转变。美国在这方面处于不利地位，因为教育水平的下降。
许多人将会快餐和体育，商贸之类的行业，很少很少进入高技术研究领域。这是美国未来创新的死循环。只要看一看美国高科技王冠上的宝石：脸书、谷歌、推特、Netflix等等。这些都不是高科技项目，不过是一堆电脑编程产品罢了，没什么好吹嘘的。

-------------译者：724519871-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Zsari Maxim
"Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS. His current projects include ongoing analysis of the security situation in the Gulf U.S. strategic competition with Iran the conflicts in Syria and Iraq a net assessment of the Indian Ocean region Chinese military developments and U.S. and Asian assessments of these developments changes in the nature of modern war and assessments of U.S. defense strategy programs and budgets."
More military spending here more military spending there more military spending everywhere. Why not. Just borrow some more from China.

安东尼·H·科德斯曼担任美国战略与国际研究中心阿利·A·伯克战略组组长。他目前的课题包括，海湾安全形势分析，美国与伊朗的战略竞争，叙利亚冲突和伊拉克的冲突，系统评估印度洋地区中国、美国和亚洲军队的发展，评估这些发展对现代战争特性带来的影响，评估美国防务政策的问题以及预算。“
这边军费开支越多，那边军费开支也会越多，然后每个地方的军费开支就会更加多。为什么不呢？大不了向中国多借一点钱。

Bobby
I believe the strategic goal of the US is pretty clear too. It is to encircle and contain China to keep it in its Third World status. So the two countries are on a colliding course.

我相信美国的战略目标非常清晰。那就是包围和遏制中国，使它处于第三世界。因此，这两个国家总是在冲突当中。

-------------译者：724519871-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

dagger906
You sound as if US obey international law when it goes against our own interests.
Don't be naive. Why do you expect them to be any better than us?

你的口气听起来像是，即便与国家利益抵触，美国还是会遵守国际法一样。
别天真了。我们有什么权力对中国提更高要求？

Walter_Peterson
There is some truth to what you say. All nations to some degree take a self-serving approach to matters that effect their own interest. But to the extent that a nation is held to universal principles the level of civilization is uplifted. But to the extent that nations disregard such principles civilization slides back to the dark ages where only the strongest prevail. The US has at some times attempted to circumvent international law and has been properly rebuked when it has done so.

你说的部分是事实，即所有国家在利益攸关的事务上会采取一定的自利做法。但是某种程度上，一个国家会随着文明水平的提升而尊重普遍原则。而在某种情况下，国家会对这些原则置若罔闻，一旦文明滑坡到黑暗时代，那么剩下只会是自私自利。美国有时候试图规避国际法，而这得到了国际社会相应的指责。

Zsari Maxim
The only time any so call universal principle can be upheld is if one nation rules supreme and project it's value as universal. That's what the US has been trying to do and it's failing.

只有一个国家成为霸权并将自己的价值奉为普世价值之时，所谓的普遍原则才能得到遵守。这是美国一直在做的事情，但是失败了。